The way one writes elucidates ones thought process (or what you term as 'mental models') which for you is all over the place
Petrochemical feedstock costs are rising while higher selling prices are only temporary due to reopening/restocking after the long pandemic induced lockdowns, like what is happening in the automotive chips sector
You want to be at the upstream, the actual producers of the commodities, not the mid-down stream
However, we know that commodities are cyclical - palm oil, crude oil, steel etc. What goes up must come down
Milk (fresh milk especially) however is different. Although fresh milk is in effect a commodity (though rarely seen as so due to its shelf life etc), there are other external, structural factors in force, including the: 1)huge domestic demand vs domestic supply deficit, whose gap is growing
2)Logistics costs (cold chain*) associated with importation (large part of the countries' fresh milk demand is met by Australian/New Zealand imports) with current container costs going through the roof *https://www.kyvalleydairy.com.au/export
(If you scroll down, you'll see an image that is very telling...) 3)foreign exchange rates, amongst other structural factors
America finds itself in a lose lose situation. Biden going to lose to Trump in 2 years.
There is another option for you.
Lee Kaifu is invested in 1200 start ups in China....now, that is the best anyone can do. Better than Warren Buffet Better than all the western gurus u read about better than just the western neo liberal option on capital markets and what American options available.
Recessions are when you open your chequebook and buy all those discounted products. If you look at my portfolio, recessions and panics are when I made the most money. 2009 I bought QL, 2010 I bought topglove, 2020 bought heavy into pchem and Tesla. If there is a recession you shoot fish in a barrel.
When the world is screwed up is when you get the best prices for good companies. >>>>>>>>
qqq3333 Sslee..Jim Rogers ah? But the world is so screwed up what if there is a recession? If there is a recession even your land values also go down 23/01/2022 7:24 PM
"This is probably the year where we will find that buying basic profitable companies selling at modest PE and giving out dividends and growing safe and steady to be a good buying choices for the coming few years." Thank you for your words of wisdom, Philip. Wishing you a roaring 2022!
jolynce "This is probably the year where we will find that buying basic profitable companies selling at modest PE and giving out dividends and growing safe and steady to be a good buying choices for the coming few years." Thank you for your words of wisdom, Philip. Wishing you a roaring 2022! ==========
he's probably thinking of his PChemm. But stock market so simple meh? There are things knowable and known, things knowable but not known, and things not knowable................and petrol chemical plants coming onstream in China that changes the industry.
its not the popular paths promoted by rich old men. Its how there is a bell curve, and as long as u have money in the game, there will be a bell curve and some who makes money. and those who makes money only know about their way.
it has been calculated that if America has the same population density per arable land as china, America will have 4 billion people. suggesting what? suggesting China is 10X more efficient also suggesting half the world can migrate to America.
Inflation theme stocks is to buy stocks that benefit from inflation. Simply looking at commodity stocks to buy is dangerous as commodities have no pricing power. You should be looking at commodity stocks with own brand name which is locally sourced and immune to transport costs.
For example PETRONAS additives and pchem fertilizers. Or coca cola soft drinks, McDonalds burgers etc. You will soon see these kind of business post quarter after quarter of growth in revenue and margins.
I am trying to avoid pure commodity stocks like steel manufacturingfactories or palm oil farms as those are more cyclical
I am a CPO producer and I don't see why benefit because the increased price of CPO is tempered by the difficulty in sourcing workers and delivery costs. If my small 100 acre farm can feel it, imagine how the upset the larger farms would be
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....