But still, I will not buy based on dk conclusion on this

>>>>>>>>

This article concludes that JHDP is expected to deliver EPS of between RM0.30 to RM0.40 to Jaks. At PE of 10 to 15 times, Jaks is worth between RM3 to RM6.

Ok sir aseng, you have my full apologies. Jaks is a wonderful company and everyone in bursa had lost much in not investing in it. Good luck with your investment.

I hope your wish comes true and jaks will really become a 3 billion ringgit company one day.

Good luck and all the best.

How much is your analysis, at rm1.5?

>>>>>>>

Posted by Aseng > Oct 6, 2021 9:25 PM | Report Abuse

300m-400m is icon8888 IRR analysis .
I had not seen any Dk report mentioned the 300-400 M . Have you ? If yes please show me .

I see, thanks for the clarity.

So am I right to say that the profit from JV now is justified. At rm37 million per quarter for 30% ownership, the total returns let year to owners of the power plant is 500 million per year (100%). At construction costs of 1.87 billion USD, for a 25 year bot, 5 year tax free on earnings, we are spending 8 billion for a 500 million a year share of profit.

That sounds very good actually. How much interest, dilution and pp had been done to cover the 30% so far? So currently we are looking at 148 million in earnings from JV per year, 24 million in interest charges per year, 300 million in debt. 270 million in warrants and pp.

Seems like a good deal. Sounds like a very good buy there

I wish everyone luck with jaks.

>>>>>>>

/2021 8:57 PM

Just88 Philip, 300m is free cash flow not profit.
06/10/2021 8:58 PM

So you still agree on his valuation and calculation that jaks jhdp earnings will be 300-400 million a year 30% of the joint venture from power plant despite what we are seeing now after cod?

If you believe that, where is the balance? Latest qr was 37 million, if we assume 300-400 million, there is still a shortfall of 63 million earnings this quarter from the JV? Any idea where and when is that coming?

I am very much interested in jaks because I read all the qr reports of all the companies I am interested in bursa every quarter.

I would like to know if more revenue and earnings coming from jaks after the total investment of 1.6 billion USD.

If you are confident that we will still get 300-400 million a year of earnings from the 30% JV or 12% IRR, then jaks is definitely a buy at these low prices.

But qr results are out and different from DK66 projections. I would like to know why such a huge gap in difference?



>>>>>>>>>

this argument is very misleading and irresponsible
because you are not interested in Jaks .
you do not bother to spend your time to do a serious homework to verify how the BOT is signed. moreover you are not an accountant , DCF valuation and comparative value may look very is not your field of expertise .

I seem to recall a long time ago as well the rosy predictions by icon8888 and dk irr calculations on how much return they will get from the power plant in 30% ownership of joint venture. So how accurate had it been since then.

The facts are jaks owes 300 million in long term debt, took a few hundred million in private placements, warrants and debt raisings to dilute shareholders of the jhdp joint venture, and in the end, we only get 37 million per quarter of earnings instead of the previously acclaimed 300-400 million calculated with multiple spreadsheets by DK66 back then.

Now power plant up and running, still no big jackpot in view.

How now? Wait for next promise, bait and switch?

Obviously Dennis Koh had now deleted all his articles and calculations.

Very sad. Shows how spreadsheets never survive the first cash flow report.


>>>>>>>
Philip, if you have a better evaluation method, I would appreciate if you can share it here. I m doing a task that so far no one is doing better in Jaks - trying to FORECAST the future earnings of JHDP.
Please take note of the word "FORECAST"
>>>>>>>
Aseng, remember I told you that the 12%IRR is based on Capacity payment alone ? The IRR has not considered the Energy payment. That is precisely the reason why Vinh Tan 1 has achieved 16% IRR as pointed out by probability.

----------------------
Fixed Capacity Price is a fixed number which is pre-determined throughout the entire economic life of the project. Fixed Capacity Price is calculated so that the internal of return of the power plant project will not exceed a regulatory rate (i.e. 10% or 12% depends on each case).
>>>>>>>

This was the article written by icon8888 long long time ago on the profit he expects to get from Jake post power plant cod run.

300 million a year!
>>>>>

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/2020-05-01-story-h1506818792-_Icon_Jaks_Resources_IRR_Model_Shows_That_RM300_mil_Net_Profit_p_a_For_.jsp

Dear aseng, this case was the item I pointed out few years ago when everyone was writing very rosy future for jaks earnings after cod, including DK in his articles which he has since deleted.

So for you, how much do you think jaks will earn in future after the engineering works have been completed, and the earnings from 30% power plant has been reflected for 2 quarters.

How much are you willing to pay for 800 million market cap valuation? Where will the future earnings come from, now that we know exactly how much jhdp is earning?

>>>>>>>>

Aseng I can wait 2 years ,

Can you ?

2 years 300%

Therefore 1 year 150%


06/10/2021 1:51 PM

Aseng just88,

put it in a very straightforward manner , you mean Phillip is not aware that the revenue of the group does not include the revenue of the associate . that is why he feel the figure very funny .am I right ?
06/10/2021 2:15 PM

How is it misunderstood when the results from qr versus the stories told by everyone is at odds?

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/11/641387/jakss-jv-vietnam-generate-rm28bil-year

This is what everyone was told.

It is now q3 2021, coming to q4 2021.

KUALA LUMPUR: Jaks Resources Bhd believes that its joint-venture (JV) company in Vietnam can generate between RM2.4 billion and RM2.8 billion annual revenue, from the first quarter (Q1) of 2021.

The bullish forecast is due to Jaks Pacific Power Ltd's coal-fired power plant there.

Jaks Pacific, a 30:70 per cent JV between Jaks Resources and China Power Engineering Consulting Group Corporation, is the owner of Jaks Hai Duong power plant (Hai Duong) with 1,200 megawatts capacity.

This is what was said.

Despite the lower revenue, the Group recorded a profit before tax of RM23.9 million
in the current year second quarter as compared to a loss before tax of RM8.4 million
in the preceding year’s corresponding quarter. The turnaround to profitability was
mainly due to the share of 30% profit in JAKS Hai Duong Power Company Limited
(“JHDP”) of RM37.5 million following the commencement of commercial operation
(“COD”).

I'm sure someone can help to explain the differences between qr reported results and the marketing results prior to pp from jaks management.

Can anyone explain the discrepancy?


>>>>>>>

Posted by Just88 > Oct 6, 2021 1:10 PM | Report Abuse

Jaks is the most misunderstood stock in Bursa. How many actually know that JHDP in actual fact benefits from higher coal prices ???

One thing Calvin always fall to reveal is the most important fact, what is the average ffb yield of sop per hectare?

It is always important to note how much production, instead of just repeating on revenue, as fixed costs, efficiency and production is the key reason why united plantations is 6 billion and Sarawak palm oil barely 2 billion.

The same as Calvin promoting jtiasa another Sarawak company without truly understanding the entire structure of business in Sarawak.

There are qualitative reasons why they are "undervalued" other than simply on qr reported results.

>>>>>>>>

calvintaneng Out of 300,000 acres of Lands SOP now has more than 200,000 Acres matured

Very Best Potential & Safe Oil Palm Companies

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600603518.jsp
03/10/2021 4:50 PM

Yes in the end this is a investing forum, not done silly forum for name calling and showing off. This is why I find myself gradually moving away from i3 to telegram due to the bad moderation of childish behaviors of creating new ID just to insult people, and trying to talk about everything else except investment decisions and results.

>>>>>>>

PleaseTeachMe Philip,do carry on with your sharing. Ignore comments that are unfair and learn from those that are helpful. It would have been better if critics point out why the stocks u buy are not good. This will benefit readers more. Hopefully, critisicms will be more constructive
05/10/2021 12:51 PM

You sound like a recent graduate from sunway university who lost money playing stock market and feeling bitter about it.

>>>>>>

If you are not happy look me up for a debate. Just look for the
millionaire finance lecturer in Sunway.
05/10/2021 5:11 AM

It is funny how some people would rather concentrate on the leaves instead of the forest. How does it benefit you by concentrating on details which are unimportant versus the important facts.

You could have started by asking why I bought awc, or you can look to share why you think AWC is a bad trade, which is more information worth learning from. You can look at my long term results to say that my investment methods are lousy and not with listening to and rationalizing which is the better method of investment.

More importantly, you can look at the 3 year history of every single transaction I have made and study what I did wrong and point out your own trading/investment methods which you think works better.

Instead you seem to emphasize on the word "small" and show off wealth.

Very sad mental view. But what can we expect of those who are not interested to look at the purpose of the page ( a full trackable portfolio of performance from 2019-21) and instead engage in petty things like showing off wealth? What wealth? Digital numbers on a toxic forum?


>>>>>>>>

KevinL I agree on the part that Philip seems to likes to show off his wealth.

You can see it from his choice of words like "Started a small trading position on AWC, around 200k shares". Considering the median net worth of a typical Malaysian is around USD8900, I don't see the necessity mention the word "small" though.

We should all be humble and share our stories/success with the intention to inspire and educate rather than for self-centered purposes.
05/10/2021 10:25 AM

Well written article lee, you have summed things up very well, except for one more important point. A lot of the new bonds raised can be called up at any time by the banks if they view it as a lost cause. Especially the recent loan by sabah development bank of 300+ million. If aa cannot pay that interest lien on that soon, Kevin Fung will be very very stressed out haha, he will probably have to call in the chips to get back whatever they can and watch the dominos fall. As the saying goes, when a margin call comes you need to act decisively and fast and not delay. The longer you wait the worse it will get.

It's amazing that people still believe in icapital. Tan Teng boo is actually worse than mutual funds, because you can at least sell those for nav value. The very fact that Icap is selling for below nav shows that majority do not view ttb actions of putting 60% money in fixed deposit instead of making it work during cheap sales period. If you are not buying when prices have crashed, then you will probably never be buying.

I don't think anybody associate it with tech. It's in the EMS industry designation.

>>>>>>

Posted by OldWiseMan100 > Sep 28, 2021 9:50 PM | Report Abuse

SKP not even a tech stock. I still dont know why people associate it with tech.

Please show me where I boast and boast?

And for your information I have results to show of my investment returns, and proper risk management to display how I put big sums of money on high conviction bets and smaller sums on riskier investments.

You can see the long term results since I started putting up my portfolio online in 2019.

Is i3 only value is to be a platform for abuse and trolling?

Please show your own investment thesis and trackable portfolio to see how your returns work out over time.

If you are not willing to do so, please stop posting and commenting further, people are here to look at how I invest and the portfolio returns, not to simply waste time talking.

The difference between me and you is that results good or bad is here to show how I invest. So far my results are still good. The difference for you is when times are good you talk a lot, when you don't do well you just go quiet and disappear. It seems you never made a mistake in buying stocks or trusting people before in your 20+ years. Good lah.

Are you w billionaire yet?

Taking a big hit on serba dinamik shares and sold fully to reduce further exposure long term. I think their inability to improve cash flow via borrowings and the red flag of 10% receivables uncollected more than 3 months is going to be the back breaker for me. Short term debt and inability to collect money are worrying signs indeed.

The first thing one should ask is not how much cash a business has, but what the business is going to grow the cash pile it has. Because as a minority shareholder you have no access to that cash, but simply whatever forms of dividends or share buybacks that the company is willing to do.

In this case the correct question is to ask why is the company valued lower than the nett cash it has?

The simple answer I can find is simply that the company doesn't make much money at all, and the earnings it has right now is simply by selling the plantations that it has for more prices instead of growing more (a trick that the old tradewinds manager seems fond of doing before, selling).

In any case would you buy a company whose central business model 77% is in the lpg business, and yet from 456 million in revenue, only makes 11+ million in profit? That is a gross profit of 2.4%.

Their ict telecommunications business is losing money, they are selling off the plantations they do have in agro.

So since we will not be able to access that pile of cash at all, and I fully believe management will be using that money to finance new business models( which may or may not be successful), the simple fact is you cannot value the company simply based on the cash they have which is the past, but try to estimate the future cash flow it will have.

That would be the real possibility of looking at why the share price will go up and how you will really benefit.

My 2 cents.

Bought some harbor thanks to Ryan bringing up some ideas on logistics arbitrage.

Started a small trading position on AWC, around 200k shares.

Finally sold out of gkent over the week after the arbitration loss and verbal confirmation acceptance of buyout offer. Very sad indeed. And not very sure on the future if dynacare, will rather pile money on hartalega.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/886425/George_Kent_accepts_MRCB_s_RM53m_cash_offer_for_50_stake_in_LRT3_JV.

Not a good look. A big blow to future revenue projections. Disappointment indeed.

For hartalega, Latest asp pricing is not as bad as everyone expected, and at this price I would be happy to pick up more. For serba, I am happy to build up my position at cheap prices

Abu Dhabi meeting was a success with new partners and indicative government joining in. Karim getting funding from there. Looks like early redemption is in the cards.

>>>>>>>

Indicative Bid Price 29+...below Philip n John's cost

Remember what you said about my biggest position in pchem? what nonsense you spouted about? DO you understand CYCLICALS?

>>>>>>>

calvintaneng Phillip does not understand the nature of CYCLICALS

Netx is a perfect example of Calvin tan concept of how he bought it at 1 cent to 2 cents while telling the whole world that since the stock is 1 cent, it can never go lower, as bursa minimum is 1 cent.

Netx teaches you how it can go lower than 1 cent.

I saved screenshots from your telegram chat you know... Why are you still lying?

Funnily enough, after I kicked Calvin from my telegram group for soliciting stock advice and arguing as usual, the group grew from 200+ members to 7x despite a lot of rules and kicking off bots and arguments. And unlike you trying to sell stock picks and ideas, the group actually share information as a healthy discussion from steel fabricators, palm oil plantation owners, contractors, doctors and serba staff for us to genuinely share information instead of scams. I am genuinely glad that everyone make so much more money that they stop following your bad ideas of throwing money into netx, that they are giving it back to society by donating to their own community. That is the core reason of having good mental models.

Guess what, pchem is doing very very well. Time will tell whose investments are working.

I still share and track your stock picks and share it to the group the private portfolio so they can track your claims versus your results.

It seems when you are not doing well, you tend to talk a lot.

Respect is a concept you know very little about. Promoting your little articles full of pump and dump, which we all know you have put money into palm oil stocks with no results, and you think you are being smart by writing those articles.

Calvin tan always want to win everything, but he doesn't dare to show his actually investment portfolio results. What does that tell you? He talks but no performance.

Shameful posting spam and repeating fake news over and over. Please delete! Or I will report you again to authorities. Remember your vicious comments on pchem, scib, serba and kpower?

First time you know calvin tan?

>>>>>>>
The only unchanged is, someone has bought a lot palm oil stocks and now publish nonsense reports in hte platform to lure uneducated investors to follow the footsteps.

Evil tactics.
02/09/2021 10:39 AM

and that is why you are a rookie.

>>>>>>>

wallstreetrookie No longer a good long term investment. All the medium term catalysts have been used up. Moreover, retail F&B is a dying business and the poultry industry is getting more and more competitive and crowded
23/06/2021 10:13 PM

why buy useless palm oil stocks which is badly run, and can't even keep up production and make money (which is why palm oil price is even high now), when the production comes, the prices will crater as usual.

Instead, buy pchem, which sifu calvin talk so much nonsense about, but came in 900% more yoy results, magnificent 1.5 billion in EARNINGs (more than almost all of the earnings of all the palm oil counters combined in bursa), and best of all can be bought for very cheap price as management has guaranteed a 50% payout of earnings every year.

How much is that? 3 billion in earnings as dividends paid out every year. Who bought a ton at 4.09-6?

Definitely not calvin tan, who only know how to badmouth stocks but doesnt know how to buy anything.

Very sad.

writes like calvin tan eng yee. smells like calvin tan eng yee. Even uses funny acronyms for companies like calvin tan eng yee.

One thing is sure, the smelliness of calvin tan stocks is so bad he has changed a new name and character to push his stock picks.
>>>>

(SENSING EAGLE EYES RESEARCH)

My smallholding plantation made more money than rsawit this quarter, and I am retired...meanwhile pchem 900% YoY. why buy lousy short term stocks, when you can stick with long term monsters ?

>>>>>

calvintaneng Insider started buying Rsawit on the quiet
Good days are ahead
30/07/2021 7:57 AM

earnings all time high, net profit margin also all time high. very good set of results.

so how much leno porfolio performance? I am sure it is goo... wait I think leno doesn't even have an imaginary portfolio. Talk so much nonsense for what?

that is a commendable result lee, i myself am down a lot from serba drop, hopefully the EY report incoming will do a bit to recover my costs. you are getting much better with reading and investing and trading, congrats!

>>>>>>>>
Sslee Dear leno,
My portfolio plus my trading gain is now 500K+ up compare to 1st Jan 2021.
Thank you for asking.

Stockraider, Sedikit demi sedikit lama-lama menjadi bukit
13/08/2021 12:31 PM

If sslee is selling his warrants to you, what are you trying to sell snake oil? Your claims are full of nonsense.

Go back to your cave, they are missing their trolls there.

>>>>>>
leno Insas-WC 40 sen vs Hartalega RM 7.00

10 baggers in my hand is better than 1 bag in your bush.

U presume too much, u make up all the future revenues and profit.

Gloves is a no barrier business.
Anyone can become gloves producers in a couple of months.
All investors knew these already.
That is why gloves investors are in FEAR.
Betul tak ?

I bought scib kpower at 50 cents post split sold all the warrants and collected all the dividends. 400% returns. You don't know how to read transcripts?

As for serba, I bought the bonds at 30 cents to the dollar. You know what is bonds?

Look at it this way, precovid
FOB 100 gloves was around 2.50
In April May as choivo pointed out to me the highest was 8.50 FOB 100 gloves
Definitely the reason for the crash in July it was selling at 5.30 FOB 100 gloves.

The asp is definitely dropping, but definitely also true is the fact that the volume is increasing.

But guess who is not being embargo to sell in USA ?
Who is not under investigation by NHS? Hartalega. As their reputation increases and not bullying their customers but selling at below the market price for gloves, my estimate are for the FOB to drop to around usd 4.20 per 100 gloves for nitrile.

The asp dropped with increasing production.

As for confidence: a simple question remains, what is the delivery supply times for hartalega gloves to date? Very simple question and very simple answer. How long is the waiting times for delivery?

Proton x70 waiting times now reaching 6 months due to supply constraints.

You can easily check for hartalega how long now is the supply chain wait times. They are still very much in demand.

That is the thesis for my investment. A company with products that is in demand with months to wait for supply selling at a reasonable price to market with the highest quality approved by all medical bodies around the world.

Selling at a fair price.

>>>>>>

wkc5657 What gives you the confidence to say that 2b per quarter can last for at least another 1 year to even 2 years?

Other glove makers also increasing capacities, and overall asp are forecasted to drop over the quarters. You implying that hartalega can maintain their asp for extended time frame?
12/08/2021 12:18 PM

the contract wins are out.

bought hartalega on monday, 500K at 6.7

if you look closely, there is a section under stock performance, wealth creation and transaction group, which outlines the IRR. that is why you need to look at the overall performance, not just childish comments of cut lost.

The difference between my portfolio and your portfolio is that everything is connected.

and IRR of 16% since inception currently (from 25% last year) shows that investment results are lumpy instead of forever make money like how most traders will tell you. the only difference is I don't cover up my losses and only show profits unlike many "newbies".

Know the difference. Its not about how much you have, but how you navigate your rick/reward strategies.

so if you see my transactions with pchem and topglove and my other investments, look at the total results and as it becomes a entire philosophy instead of just one transaction. that is why they call it an investment STRATEGY, not gambling.

who are you trying to convince kid?

Why waste time with this type of article? Is kyy 80 years old or 8? Why not just let his investing prove his results instead of writing this rubbish?

I do agree with steel stocks being over pushed, I already sold my steel stocks a few months ago for a nice profit, I think the story will be as floaty as assuming palm oil stocks will explode like what calvin tan thinks.