Top Losers
Stock Last Change
NESTLE 132.900 -2.500
PETDAG 20.280 -0.780
BKAWAN 24.100 -0.540
CARZO 1.220 -0.510
KLK 24.300 -0.400
HEIM 24.060 -0.400
PETGAS 16.160 -0.380
CARLSBG 22.480 -0.300
PPB 15.780 -0.260
HENGYUAN 5.200 -0.250
MPI 29.620 -0.220
PETRONM 6.510 -0.200
TM 4.950 -0.200
HLFG 18.580 -0.180
YNHPROP 3.110 -0.180
TAANN 4.390 -0.170
MSC 2.660 -0.160
PMETAL 4.830 -0.150
AXIATA 2.720 -0.140
HARTA 3.030 -0.140
CANONE 3.300 -0.140
IHH 6.170 -0.130
FBMKLCI-CFP 0.030 -0.120
HARTA-C95 0.030 -0.120
KESM 7.230 -0.120
SIMEPLT 4.670 -0.120
AEONCR 14.280 -0.120
HSI-HEO 1.110 -0.100
MAXIS 3.180 -0.100
DIGI 3.150 -0.100
MISC 7.060 -0.090
HAPSENG 7.270 -0.090
HSI-HB6 0.850 -0.085
KOBAY 3.090 -0.080

10.43 am 15.6.2022

Some oil palm refiners are having a bit of tough time today. Due to the high CPO prices, their working capital has increase 4 folds. Seeking loans to cover for this working capital have been challenging for some oil palm refiners.

So many good companies are sold down in this bear market, you just have to do the homework.

If you understand the company inside-out, you can be confident in your assessment of its intrinsic value.

If you are unable to understand its business, and you are not able to calculate its intrinsic value (for various reasons), just move on and search for another company to invest into.

Investing is most intelligent when it is business like.

What is your intrinsic value for TSH?

How much are you willing to pay to own it (given a margin of safety)?

How much will be your return on your capital in the 1st year of owning this company?

This company continues to gain / win contracts in Brazil.

Ship building (OSV) is no longer its main business.

However, capital intensive business.

Balance sheet is healthy. Business model is competitive.

What I observed the last 2 years in the stock market?

Many newcomers into the stock market. Especially the younger investors who had a lot of time during the lockdown. They had little to do and the "only interesting game in town" was the stock market. Also, many stock promoters organized free or next to free seminars on trading and investing.

Nothing excites the newcomers than a rising market. The stock markets were all at the lowest in March 2020. Then something "miraculous" happened. There were so much money created and given freely to tom, dick and harry, and these free or virtually free money found their ways into the stock market and the cryptocurrencies. A bull run occurred which was fast and furious in both markets. Everyone in the market felt they were geniuses!

I could feel the elation in the whatsapps messages I received from new players. "I had invested into glove stocks. I am thinking of adding more." " I bought some bitcoins and I think it will reach a US1m per bitcoin. When I have the money, I hope to add more."

However, the last 6 months, reality strikes. These stocks have corrected severely. Those who rode up the technology stocks in US too have seen their stocks dived precipitously.

For those who have learned the lessons of the volatility of the stock markets, hopefully these lessons will guide them well in their future investing. For those who failed to learn, well, the smarter thing is to realise these lessons and continue to invest in educating themselves on investing to be better investors.

Referring to ahbah that 3iii is spreading fear to the main market, this is only his impression. The biggest enemy in investing is yourself; yourself alone and no others. Invest, equip and educate yourself to profit from the stock market over the long term.

Cryptocurrencies crashing. Soon, this will affect the main markets too. Contagion effects.

My first bear market was in October 1987. My stockbroker revealed to me that morning that many brokers worldwide would be in trouble. I did not have any money in the market then.

My next bear market was in 1997/1998. I had started investing since 1993, but stopped putting money into the market in 1995/96. My portfolio value went down with the severe bear market. The value dropped below my invested capital, but I was sure the intrinsic value of my portfolio was higher than the quotational values and thus, did not sell. By 2002, perhaps earlier, my portfolio value was higher than my invested capital. I was surprised and gained a lot of valuable lessons from this bear market.

The next market was the tech bubble bursting in 2000. In Malaysia, many were riding on the 2nd tier local market which was definitely in a bubble. When this burst, many saw their portfolio values decimated. Many did not recover after this. I stayed clear of the lesser quality stocks and was spared the ordeal here.

Another ferocious bear market occured in 2008. The subprime crisis reared its ugly head in the US and the West. From early reports, this was not going to be a concern and could be contained easily. Alas, this was not the case and the subprime crisis led to the fall of markets worldwide. Many markets dropped 40% or so. Yet, I was in the market and did not sell. It was painful seeing your stocks going down with the market. But knowing the intrinsic values of the individual stocks and the overall portfolio value based on these intrinsic values, it would be crazy to sell just because the prices had dropped. Once again, good luck smiled on my portfolio. The capitulation point occured when Lehman collapsed. The market tanked and reached its lowest point. The recovery was not immediate. It was another 6 months when the V-shaped recovery. This occured in March 2009 and my porfolio value galloped upwards till today.

The next shocked was March 2020 when the market collapsed due to the Covid pandemic. However, though well prepared to take advantage of a possible bear, the collapsed quickly reverted due to massive quantitative easing, various stimuli by the government and lower interest rates. The recovery was just too fast and the market shot upwards, not because the companies were doing better, but the market was being pushed up by expanding PE. Market players were willing to price the shares at higher multiples. Some businesses that benefited from the pandemic were hyped up due to high demands for their products and services during the lockdown. Now that the lockdown is over for most countries, and the world is adopting to opening up their economy and society, these hyped up counters have fallen substantially. Yet, this did not count as a bear market, but just individual companies collapsing for earnings reasons.

The last 6 months, we have seen so many news coming out on so many projections of the economy. Inflation has reared its ugly head, but for many months, those in power had reassured that this is not a problem and can be easily controlled. Increasingly, it looks like they are wrong. Inflation is now the main enemy to be tackled by the central bankers ahead of ensuring employment at a reasonable level. Due to a confluent of many geopolitical factors, supply chain disruption, and actions by the central banks to counter inflation through increasing interest rates and quantitative tightening, the economies are expected to cool down. When the CPI of US recently released showed it to be higher, it looked like inflation has yet to reached its peak. Further actions by the Fed are needed and quickly too. Thus, the fear of a possible recession is now feared. Perhaps, a recession is the only means to control inflation today. We are now in the latest bear market.

Are you well positioned to benefit from this latest bear market?

All the buy calls by Calvin are just to hype up the stocks he has taken position in. Just look at Netx. He cannot change, nor can we expect him to change. So much for all the religious insinuations in his posts.

Be truthful and post with the right intentions.

March 2020 Index at 1206
Today 13.6/2022 Index at 1465.9

Today, market is down on high volume.

When stock market crashes, your cash buying power appreciates, as you can buy more units of stocks now than before the crash.

But the outlook for the stock market, at present, is very negative. So much negative economic news projected.

For a long term investor, you need not have to buy at the lowest price. One should buy a stock when it is already obviously cheap (related to its intrinsic value). Of course, it may still get cheaper but you would have already have a margin of safety at the price you bought.

Last Price Change Volume
1463.79 -30.16 (-2.02%) 3.009b
Open: 1483.76 Day Range: 1458.85 - 1483.76 Prev Close: 1493.95
Value: 1.951b Year Range: 1458.85 - 1620.44 Year Change: -7.07%


Top Losers
Stock Last Change
MPI 30.340 -1.600
BKAWAN 25.300 -1.200
DLADY 32.700 -0.760
F&N 19.820 -0.680
KLK 24.380 -0.600
PETRONM 6.400 -0.590
SP500-C14 0.885 -0.555
HENGYUAN 5.290 -0.510
SOP 4.750 -0.460
HEIM 24.040 -0.440
VITROX 7.250 -0.380
GREATEC 3.420 -0.380
HLFG 18.820 -0.380
MSC 2.780 -0.370
TEXCHEM 3.280 -0.350
TAANN 4.550 -0.350
PANAMY 26.980 -0.340
AEONCR 14.420 -0.320
SP500-C12 0.360 -0.305
AJI 12.520 -0.280
BJFOOD 4.590 -0.270
HSI-CJO 1.100 -0.260
MISC 6.950 -0.250
COMPLET 3.800 -0.250
HARTA 3.350 -0.250
KFIMA 2.600 -0.250
DUFU 2.650 -0.250
KESM 7.370 -0.250
PPB 15.640 -0.240
HSI-CJC 0.895 -0.235
HONGSENG 1.640 -0.230
HSI-CJR 1.470 -0.230
METFUS50 1.700 -0.225
IHH 6.230 -0.220

See how a few cryptocurrencies have crashed hugely (fallen over a cliff)!

If a company is paying regular dividends and is able to do so for many forseeable years, we can at least determine a floor for its lowest company value or share price.

As for cryptocurrencies, these produce no income or output. Their prices are determined by how much the next speculator is willing to buy them at. As for their floor prices, it is not difficult to guess these either. Of course, unsupported by any incomes or dividends, the answers are zero.

>>>>>
These savvy investors hold stocks for many many years and collecting good dividends

Dividends accumulated far exceed low Bank FD rates which cannot protect us from the ravages of high inflation.
>>>>>>

Yes, this is how to grow your portfolio values over the long term.

>>>
Posted by ahbah > 6 hours ago | Report Abuse

Anyone got found any stocks that will rise 100% in the coming next 5 yrs ?
>>>>


This thread is on those stocks that had risen 100% over the last 5 years.
This is quite different from trying to find stocks that will rise 100% over the next 5 years.

SSLee
Who controls the market price of Insas?
Are u in a position to reprice this company?
By various parameters, Insas is undervalued.
However, so far the shareholders have stayed unrewarded.
Perhaps, one day it will be taken private. (?)
Perhaps, an acquisition by another party (?)

Yes, casino always wins in the LONG RUN.

Gambling in the casino is a negative sum game for the player. He maybe lucky a few times, but over the long run, based on probability, he will be the loser always.

<<<<
Sslee

9,754 posts

Posted by Sslee > 10 hours ago | Report Abuse

3iii,
What is your intention of this past 5 years record?
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥
Insas Berhad
0.79 MYR
-0.27 (-25.47%)past 5 years
9 Jun, 5:00 pm MYT

If you have nothing better to do why not teach people how to read Balance Sheet and cash flow statement on:
What is good or bad receivables, inventories and debts.
What its mean to impaired goodwill and receivables every year.
Why some company almost every year PP, RI, ESOS and Share grant.

Hopefully with your teaching people will not fall for company like Netx, Serba, Sapura, Jaks and etc.

Many thanks in advance.
>>>>>

You really only need a few very good stocks for the long term in your portfolio and you will be very rich.

Having identified these goo stocks, you should spend more time on in understanding their balance sheets and business models. Your rewards are proportional to the amount of real effort you put in.

There are many stocks you do not wish to be involved in (perhaps 95% of the stocks in the market). These can easily be discarded quickly within minutes. Dwelling on their details just means you are not allocating your invaluable time productively or intelligently.

Of course, long term investors approach the market different to those short term players.

Cheers

>>>
stockraider

29,819 posts

Posted by stockraider > 7 hours ago | Report Abuse

Not much u can learn from 3iii loh!
He is not really a value investor, he is a big follower of brand investment mah!
>>>>>


When Nestle went from RM 70 to RM 160 and now back to RM 130, and if you have been holding this stock since 1993, you will realise that my style of investing will never change to embrace yours.

Regards.

US stocks have been beaten down severely. But these were the same stocks that had shot up massively over the recent years.

Interestingly, I read an article which forced me to rethink on how to screen for stocks. Do you know that about a third of the S&P 500 stocks actually delivered >100% capital appreciation over a 5 year period, for the long term investors? This fact cannot be ignored by a long term investor who is looking for long term growth in his portfolio (long term greedy). Screening the US stocks has been even more interesting and rewarding. There is so much information on these stocks in the web, facilitating analysis.

>>>

Sslee

9,754 posts

Posted by Sslee > 9 hours ago | Report Abuse

3iii,
What is your intention of this past 5 years record?

>>>>


The stock market is down. The bears are dominating. Many counters are sold down.
I am just using my method to screen for great companies that have given great returns to their shareholders over the years (5 or more years).
Sadly, in Malaysia, there are very few companies that have delivered multi-bagger returns consistently to their shareholders over 5 or more years.

{SSLee You will agree that though price maybe driven by market sentiments in the short term (voting machine), the price of a company does reflect the fundamentals of the company over the long term (weighing machine). Thus, this is a simple way to screen for stocks, to then select these for further studies to own in this bear market. Cheers. Regards.}

Insas Berhad
0.79 MYR
-0.10 (-11.24%)past year
10 Jun, 5:00 pm MYT

Insas Berhad
0.79 MYR
-0.27 (-25.47%)past 5 years
10 Jun, 5:00 pm MYT

Insas Berhad
0.79 MYR
+0.41 (107.89%)all time (2006)
10 Jun, 5:00 pm MYT

As a general rule, be suspicious and shy away from a stock with very high dividend yield.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buy-big-dip-warren-buffett-142800704.html

CPO price dropped 4.5% today.

Should I buy this big dip? Warren Buffett has spent a third of his cash hoard — so it might be a sharp idea to start nibbling
Vishesh Raisinghani
May 31, 2022·3 min read
Should I buy this big dip? Warren Buffett has spent a third of his cash hoard — so it might be a sharp idea to start nibbling
Should I buy this big dip? Warren Buffett has spent a third of his cash hoard — so it might be a sharp idea to start nibbling
Warren Buffett is back in his element. After sitting on a growing cash pile for years, Buffett is finally opening up his wallet.

The Oracle of Omaha deployed $51 billion in the first three months of this year. That’s roughly one-third of the cash pile his company, Berkshire Hathaway, had at the end of 2021.

Here are all the stocks he added to the portfolio in the first quarter of 2022. If you’re looking to buy the dip, these ideas might be a good place to start.

Activision Blizzard (ATVI)
Buffett made a small bet on game developer Activision Blizzard earlier this year. However, when it was announced that the company was being acquired by Microsoft, he quadrupled his stake.

He now owns 9.5% of the game maker’s outstanding shares.

In a meeting with Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett claimed this was now part of a merger arbitrage strategy.

Microsoft has offered to pay $95 per share for the company. However, Activision shares trade at more than $78 on the Nasdaq stock exchange. If the deal with Microsoft closes as planned, Buffett can pocket $17 per share in low-risk profit.

Floor & Decor (FND)
Georgia-based retailer Floor & Decor has a favorable position in the flooring niche. The stock trades at 30 times earnings and has relatively robust margins. It fits in perfectly with the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio of home services and specialty retail, including RH and Nebraska Furniture Mart.

Buffett added a whopping 3.9 million shares of FND to his portfolio in the first quarter.

Chevron (CVX)
Buffett’s bet on energy is particularly noteworthy. The price of oil and gas has skyrocketed over the past year. It’s driven by a combination of rebounding demand and limited supply. The supply crunch is further exacerbated by sanctions on Russia — a key oil-producing nation — due to the country’s invasion of Ukraine.

This is a tailwind for companies like Chevron. The company produces 2% of global oil every year and also plays a key role in other parts of the energy supply chain.

Buffett first acquired a position in the company in 2020. However, he deployed much more capital in the first quarter of this year, making Chevron his fourth-largest position.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
Occidental Petroleum benefits from the same tailwinds as Chevron. The energy crisis has pushed this stock up 128% year to date. Despite that surge, it’s still trading at just 10.7 times earnings.

Buffett acquired 136 million shares of OXY in the first quarter of the year. It’s now the eighth-largest holding in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio.

Apple (APPL)
Berkshire’s portfolio is still dominated by one name: Apple Inc.

At the start of the year, the company held roughly 887 million shares of the iPhone maker. In this quarter, Buffett added nearly 4 million more — pushing the aggregate value of this bet up to $155.5 billion. That’s nearly 43% of the entire portfolio.

HP (HPQ)
The Oracle of Omaha seems to have overcome his reluctance to bet on technology companies. Besides Apple and Activision, Buffett also added a position in device manufacturer HP Inc.

The overlooked consumer tech giant could be attractive because of its steady profitability. Over the past five years, the company has consistently delivered an annual free cash flow of $4 billion. Some experts expect this to rise modestly to $4.5 billion.

That implies a free cash flow yield of 12%. An ideal fit for Buffett’s portfolio.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B
293.80 USD
+8.62 (3.03%)past year
10 Jun, 11:20 am GMT-4

United Airlines Holdings Inc
41.35 USD
-4.18 (-9.18%)year to date
10 Jun, 11:07 am GMT-4

United Airlines Holdings Inc
41.35 USD
-14.95 (-26.56%)past year
10 Jun, 11:07 am GMT-4

United Airlines Holdings Inc
41.35 USD
-35.47 (-46.19%)past 5 years
10 Jun, 11:07 am GMT-4

United Airlines Holdings Inc
41.35 USD
-1.69 (-3.92%)all time 2006
10 Jun, 11:07 am GMT-4


Those who bought in March 2020, bought at the lowest price. 24 to 28

Accenture Plc
286.94 USD
+159.38 (124.95%)past 5 years
10 Jun, 11:05 am GMT-4

Accenture Plc
286.94 USD
+268.63 (1,467.12%)all time 1998
10 Jun, 11:05 am GMT-4

iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
75.74 USD
-11.85 (-13.52%)past year
10 Jun, 10:59 am GMT-4 •

In stagflation, sell bonds.

Alphabet Inc Class A
2,217.64 USD
-217.52 (-8.93%)past year
10 Jun, 10:55 am GMT-4

Alphabet Inc Class A
2,217.64 USD
+1,258.99 (131.33%)past 5 years
10 Jun, 10:55 am GMT-4

Alphabet Inc Class A
2,217.64 USD
+2,163.45 (3,994.55%)all time 2004
10 Jun, 10:55 am GMT-4

*****

Procter & Gamble Co
141.68 USD
+52.05 (58.05%)past 5 years
10 Jun, 10:53 am GMT-4

Procter & Gamble Co
141.68 USD
+139.11 (5,350.38%)all time 1982
10 Jun, 10:53 am GMT-4

McDonald's Corp
238.73 USD
+86.74 (57.07%)past 5 years
10 Jun, 10:51 am GMT-4

McDonald's Corp
238.73 USD
+237.03 (13,942.94%)all time 1982
10 Jun, 10:51 am GMT-4

Marriott International Inc
163.28 USD
+58.69 (56.16%)past 5 years
10 Jun, 10:50 am GMT-4


Marriott International Inc
163.28 USD
+155.18 (1,937.33%)all time 1995
10 Jun, 10:50 am GMT-4

adidas AG
176.26 EUR
+2.21 (1.27%)past 5 years
10 Jun, 4:32 pm GMT+2

adidas AG
176.26 EUR
+136.33 (341.42%)all time 1998
10 Jun, 4:32 pm GMT+2

European

Nike Inc
115.23 USD
+64.03 (125.30%)past 5 years
10 Jun, 10:46 am GMT-4


Nike Inc
115.19 USD
+114.90 (49,956.52%)all time 1982
10 Jun, 10:46 am GMT-4

Hershey Co
211.64 USD
+99.72 (89.17%)past 5 years
10 Jun, 10:44 am GMT-4


Hershey Co
211.64 USD
+209.81 (12,058.05%)all time 1982
10 Jun, 10:44 am GMT-4

Shopify Inc
354.99 USD
-876.28 (-71.18%)past year
10 Jun, 9:56 am GMT-4

Shopify Inc
354.99 USD
+267.89 (308.17%)past 5 years
10 Jun, 9:56 am GMT-4

Shopify Inc
354.99 USD
+326.51 (1,153.34%)all time 2015
10 Jun, 9:56 am GMT-4

Verizon Communications Inc.
50.73 USD
+4.14 (8.88%)past 5 years
10 Jun, 9:50 am GMT-4 •

Verizon Communications Inc.
50.73 USD
+43.01 (554.25%)all time 1983
10 Jun, 9:50 am GMT-4 •

Teladoc Health Inc
32.76 USD
-1.24 (-3.65%)past 5 years
10 Jun, 9:48 am GMT-4

Teladoc Health Inc
32.75 USD
+4.76 (17.00%)all time 2015
10 Jun, 9:49 am GMT-4

Stitch Fix Inc
6.80 USD
-8.31 (-54.85%)past 5 years
10 Jun, 9:43 am GMT-4


Stitch Fix Inc
6.80 USD
-8.31 (-54.85%)past 5 years 2017
10 Jun, 9:43 am GMT-4

Gruesome

Gilead Sciences, Inc.
60.48 USD
-3.66 (-5.71%)past 5 years
10 Jun, 9:38 am GMT-4 •

Gilead Sciences, Inc.
60.50 USD
+59.76 (8,537.14%)all time 1992
10 Jun, 9:39 am GMT-4 •

Kraft Heinz Co
36.97 USD
-52.45 (-58.66%)past 5 years
10 Jun, 9:37 am GMT-4

Kraft Heinz Co
36.98 USD
-9.02 (-19.62%)all time 2021
10 Jun, 9:37 am GMT-4

Colgate-Palmolive Company
75.29 USD
-1.02 (-1.34%)past 5 years
10 Jun, 9:36 am GMT-4 •

Colgate-Palmolive Company
75.29 USD
+74.20 (6,807.34%)all time (1982)
10 Jun, 9:36 am GMT-4 •

Coca-Cola Co
60.70 USD
+15.35 (33.88%)past 5 years
10 Jun, 9:34 am GMT-4 •

Coca-Cola Co
60.70 USD
+59.95 (8,443.66%)all time (1982)
10 Jun, 9:34 am GMT-4 •

Citigroup Inc
48.78 USD
-15.01 (-23.49%)past 5 years
10 Jun, 9:32 am GMT-4 •


Citigroup Inc
48.81 USD
+30.23 (162.09%)all time (1986)
10 Jun, 9:32 am GMT-4 •