I think MACC is tremendously irresponsible here. It’s news that’s political. airbus gets tickled, Boeing kills people. But you wanna confirm whack this country into a meltdown. I think she gonna get a sounding from tun Mahathir, and the SC also. Where is their input?


It’s already a spooky market, airlines are an inherently spooky business. between oil prices , crashes, strikes , and debt levels you also scared.


If our airlines fail, since we only have one left. What then? No tourism. Virus already suppress. No more trips on weekend to Bali and Bangkok lo, see how much MAS fly you there for, or go transit in Singapore to go Bangkok back to the days of 3 hour check in very good.

Inter ASEAN travel has opened up so much to everyone in every country . Everyone benefits, a whole bunch of new industries and jobs were made.

What book cooking nonsense. Did you get cash in dividends? The cash come from where. Planes don’t fly on fake fuel ok..

Haiyooo. Maybe we deserve our own fate after all.

Icon8888

Must be tough when the capital amount is small, to wait for a meaningful return. And also tough, with a salaried job, to make meaningful money.

Then you take more risk to go chase that quick gain. Which is fine, if you're an active daily trader, with very clear emotions and position sizing.

Instead I suggest you'll be better off if you.

1. Use your employment and current capital to get a share margin line. 100,000 in pledged as collateral in fixed deposit, gives you a line one 250,000.

2. Apply for credit cards, and take out 72 months cash-loan on it.

3. Then go buy shares like the ones Philip suggests, up to 70% of your line first. When you see gains, or the market recovering you can add more.

4. Your positions are very small, you can afford to wait till it starts trending up or picking up to enter

5. If you have real estate, consider overdrafting it, or sell it and rent it from the same buyer.

6. Convince your friends,family, etc. To provide you collateral for a more financing.

Limit your portfolio to 3-4 shares. Go long, go short, You're agile and nimble.

You're okay if you don't stray and take capital losses. Or use too much of your line and risk margin calls.

Okay now maybe its possible to be patient?

Oh Choivo,

no way this counter is even around in 6 years.

looks like going the way of Shell refinery.

Oops. It's 18m of 18000m, 0.1%

dunoo what you all keep saying dont do, i've maintained my position and netted 40k plus today in contra gain.

If so, why didn't you subscribe and provide capital into the company? It puts the company in a stronger position to do better, and solidifies your investment. What is our role as minority shareholders? Trade for liquidity? Boost share prices? Provide capital? Check and balance?

You don't see it from a director's point of view. Their stake is much higher than all of us combined. What is an allowance or fee compared to 30% shareholding x Market Price of shares. If they make the market upset, wouldn't they lose money like holland?

R88 seriously , I think many people here do pity you, and will give you some money. You should set up a donation website on www.gofundme.com

Philip, choivo, i do appreciate the advice.

Guys, i'm sorry. But i don't see the logic in not selling early in a clear knee jerk reaction. Only to pick up the shares at the end of the day, or next day. Given the kind of reaction, the stock is not instantly going to do a 360 degree turn and meteor up to where it used to be (contextual situation applies)

Maybe if your position is very big, then it's not feasible. But for most retailers, with 1m or less, you are in and out.

But otherwise, if you already have a position in the stock, and you believe it's long term prospects. This means no matter what you'll ride the knee jerk right?

Like today, there is a rout on Topglove, as expected since the virus looks to be slowing down. Why would you not want to cash out at 6, and buy TopGlove again at whatever, 5%, 4% lower. You can set the limit buy, and you get your price.

Price follows the path of least resistance, its not difficult to spot a panic selldown, or a mania uptrend.

Volatility is the friend. If one loads up on these discount events. Taking outside money to buy more, vs selling current position to buy more, what's the difference? Isn't it also timing? Isn't it a bit riskier as you've added capital?

A few chances like this, could make a 2-3 bagger, into 5 bagger, over the cycle Same risk,same stock,same prospects. Just a few days of going short over 600 days.

I'm not trying to be argumentative, but i just cant grasp sitting by and letting the stock take a temporary hit.

"Trying to time the market will always be an exercise in futility. When I was young in the 80s I tried to time the market, it didn't work. I then tried to time the market in the 90s, it also ask didn't work. You may be too young to remember renong, aokam and alta vista, but my prognosis is always hindsight is perfect. But in reality, if you have been losing big money in a stock, it becomes harder to buy back when you sell it, or even to just buy more as it goes down."

I'm curious as to how you've tried to do it in the past, and came to decide it was futile? ^^ I wasn't old enough for renong, but my late father did condemn it very often. Altavista? The search engine?

@Icon8888
If you are holding unencumbered 1000 shares.

You can sell 1000 lots 6.75 in in the morning when it just started selling down, and buy 1000 lots again in the evening at 6.64.

The difference of 11 cents per share will be your gain in cash, RM11k in cash, or buy 1.6 more lots.

Exactly. So why shouldn't profit from a short term shock?
Long/Short, same thing - a bet in direction but in different timeframs.
Long over years, short over 2 days.

All my indicators bleeped sell, at every data interval.

I hesitated - but in this panic, it makes sense to sell and buy back the equivalent shares in t+2 days time for a contra-gain in cash or shares.

The probability of a recovery within 2 days is low.

I'm fundamentally long - so isn't the goal to increase/maintain the position in terms of shares?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

It's really serious

oh, happy new year to all.
very rocky start with viruses all around, let's hope it all goes away soon and fortune for all following next

Of course there are better.
Risk is opportunity cost to me.
But where would you park 5m or more?

rights issue subscription, they pump in more capital INTO the company. ya'll trade to provide liquidity. what's so unfair?

DATUK HASMI BIN HASNAN 16-Dec-2019 Others 25,492,195 0.920 View Detail
DATUK HASMI BIN HASNAN 16-Dec-2019 Others 96,093 0.920 View Detail
DATUK LING SUK KIONG 16-Dec-2019 Others 7,325,433 0.920 View Detail
DATUK LING SUK KIONG 16-Dec-2019 Others 6,121,818 0.920 View Detail
DATUK LING SUK KIONG 16-Dec-2019 Others 4,146,382 0.920 View Detail
DATUK LING SUK KIONG 16-Dec-2019 Others 4,450 0.920 View Detail
MR JOE LING SIEW LOUNG @ LIN SHOU LONG 16-Dec-2019 Others 7,325,433 0.920 View Detail
MR JOE LING SIEW LOUNG @ LIN SHOU LONG 16-Dec-2019 Others 6,121,818 0.920 View Detail
MR JOE LING SIEW LOUNG @ LIN SHOU LONG 16-Dec-2019 Others 4,146,382 0.920 View Detail
MR JOE LING SIEW LOUNG @ LIN SHOU LONG 16-Dec-2019 Others 4,450 0.920 View Detail

No reason for IB to issue warrant if people don't buy into that scam.
In fact i'm even more worried our dear SC/Bursa doesn't give two hoots about this annoying distortions.

what's wrong? they used cash to subscribe to the rights issue. If it's at a good price now, director or no director, it's wise to cover your risk.

Hi Philip,

Hmm. Maybe i could shoot you an email?

For privacy , do send me an email to my spare email address : skepzz@gmail.com

For visualization..

https://imgur.com/gallery/CNNGDZ2

First and foremost, valuation based fundamentals is the leading criteria, from a macro view worldly -> industry -> regionally local -> company.

Without fundamentals, there won't be earnings growth, and earnings drive price x volume action by institutions, and we are swimming in a big sea, with prices set by institutions. They kind of have to act in very certain ways, they cant ignore a recent earnings drop or growth in a quarter. Nor transact at depressed prices without i assume a host of investment committee etc..

"I noticed one thing, many people try to time the bottom and buy the lows.
You can't. By the time you realize it, the lows will be over and the path of recovery begins. There only thing you can do is value a company to its intrinsic value and buy based on your valuation of it."

That's the thing. I don't know if it's safe to say that you can't. Now with big-data ready accessible, and amazingly easy ways to chart,correlate, visualize the effects of volume ,price, events , and time.

I've never been a sucker for technical trading as its commonly known, with bollinger bands, bollinger rubbber band, head and shoulders line, monkey swing breakout? what?

But i cannot deny indicators based on prices & volume (i.e converting high-low-vwap-close prices in a factor).
Next, buy/sell volume relative to past periods (i.e Elliott waves, buyvalue , sellvalue).

They both tell you very objectively prices are bidding high, and volumes are increasing.

Timing it to an hourly interval vs a daily/weekly interval has a huge difference! Hourly or minutely intervals have too much noise, and the pips in between too small to make a profit.

On larger small caps with volume, or midcaps and above, the accuracy in indicating a bull trend in a stock at daily interval 80%, on a 5day interval 90%. A sell trend, well it doesn't capture the first drop well, as its knee jerk, but the ongoing downtrend, quite well. With such intervals, and sensitivity, it's not worth holding on on a strong signal, because if it's a false signal, okay maybe might cost 1% more to enter in. But if it's right, wow - thats a 10-20% save. And on a buy trend...wow.

To get it really good, one can customize the indicators to each stock's profile. It's quite clear on uncovering, what's the PE threshold before buying demand slows down, what's the timeframe a stock is likely to satay in an overbought position, what's the threshold for profit-taking in the stock,

I've been observing, testing, and trading based on this, of course around stocks & positions that one can sleep well at night holding, on data from daily intervals, so maybe 1-2 decisions per week. (i tried contra trading, omg, how do you live day in day out, i was broken in 2 weeks)

What I will now do is to pick 5 core stocks, that have various earning quarters, so i can cycle between them, and concentrate leverage per quarter per stock, when the bull trend is indicated & other sub-indicators/sanity tests checks out. I will get into short FKLI contracts for just the week or month, so i won't get bankrupted if there is market crazy. And on any other week, out of the 5, one or two might trend opposite ways, or trend stronger than the others, so i just shift them around and shift them back. Or i'll contra trade a size able amount, and if it doesn't work nicely within the 2 days, i can sell temporarily to pick-up. Sometimes a call warrant also makes sense..

Staying invested the whole time is key, all the little bonuses add up.


Okay transaction costs are painful, but... Rakuten charges RM100 per day CAPPED. If i move a million ringgit position, i pay RM10 for a CDS transfer, do the trade, and bring it back into my margin account. =D

Philip,

PCHEM has obvious potential and growth, and will be a giant - i see that in a timeframe of 3-5 years.

The analysts and fund managers, take a QoQ view, and price securities- just for the next 1yr or 1.5yr max. Hence a rally occurs close to earnings, or a little after. PCHEM 2019 Q4 results has a high certainty of being called an "upset", where as maybe in Q1 2020 it'll be more mindblowing - with better product prices + PIC contribution.

Knowing that it's probable the price will trend down significantly in the coming quarter, why would one not sell now, and pick up the position again cheaper later?

I've also noticed, that PCHEM, being a big KLCI index stock, tends to just move in sync with the index, in 1-2 weeks post Qtr earnings. It really only pulls away up & down from the KLCI post Q earnings (i guess that's how it outperforms the index)

Beta is 0.89 (haha makes sense since the index has been flat..)

what sunshine? the failed democratic system in India?
what good would the boycott do to anyone? Especially to their own citizens.
vested interests over there run the parliament,province,districts
it's all talk and politicking, somehow or another our oil palm will reach india, maybe via singapore as usual, because, if it does not - is famine.
__
Palm oil is largely consumed by the lower-middle class in India as it is an affordable edible oil (priced lower by 50 to 100 Indian rupees per 10kg or US$100 to US$200 per tonne compared with other edible oils), according to GG Patel and Nikhil Research Co (India).

Its managing partner Govindbhai G. Patel pointed out that palm oil was the main oil used by the hotel, restaurant and catering sector as well as by chips and savoury snack manufacturers.

___
As such, India would need at least eight million metric tonnes of palm oil by 2015 if palm oil maintains its market share of around 35-37% of the total oils and fats consumption, said Fatimah at the two-day event in Mumbai, themed Managing Global Challenges Through Innovative Partnerships.

__

if they boycott they will have famine and starve la.

oo malaysia rubber output up 9.3%

more perspective...

https://imgur.com/gallery/CNNGDZ2

somebody too much free time playing with himself.. hahaha

wish got like a chat function on market depth.
can say, oi! dumbo, got more than 40k lots in Q, now alone u can see 5k to 1k lots! why u trigger happy sell so cheap for what

hor hor.. who is buying everyone out at 7.06 ahhh
why yall keep selling so cheap!

not if youre with rakuten.
beyond 200k its like 0.05% or less rate. they cap to RM100, and with 5x leverage, you can wish wash whole day long providing liquidity!

means more people buying gold -> more rich people -> more aluminium use, less tin use.

yes wonder who is selling to them at that price...haih..

I'd OD my home to buy more

Trading just on technicals makes no logical sense. The more fancy it is, the more bullshit it is.

Price x Action (volume) trends do make alot of sense. And they are actually identifiable to a very high degree in 2hr - 1 week time frames.

I'd think trading around quality stocks to be sensible.

You keep your core portfolio, concentrated and unsinkable. While your ship sails to it's next earnings date, it'll bob up down left right sideways.

Buy low - sell high technical trading is difficult. When can u buy low? when can u sell high? Q up like an idiot. And if your'e t+2 trading, then you run out of time.

Instead, profit on your core positions, by "shorting" without really shorting.
Every few days, when you observe that you get to sell on some mini-trend, 2-3% higher say, sell like 200k worth at one go. This is your "short" price. Then GTD orders for lots at 4-5% below your short price. Due to volatility, or whims of people who are not patient, your limit buys are gonna fill quite quickly (see, you can enter Q to buy at any price if u have cash, but you can't enter Q to sell high if you don't have the shares!)

Boom. Now you own more shares even in a sideways period.

you can also trade between your own holdings, there is bound to be 1 stock doing well trending up, and the other trending down daily. Shift some between the two, easy.

It's not so time consuming, but im sure it pays more than a job =P

Perspective..
https://imgur.com/gallery/KJdseMZ

Yinson 161x could be a world-record, for its risk/industry.
I personally caught PMETAL for a 32x run, sadly i divested here and there to start my own companies with my own capital.
That wiped out 800k, that could have been 5.7m. In hindsight, if i hadn't sold - i'd be on path for retirement before 35!
My lesson learnt is..unless I've such an unfair edge, of course the thousands of world-class entrepreneurs would have better odds on capital than me. It's just logic. =/

Link to edge article:
https://imgur.com/gallery/o2wdEDk

this share is like the girl that friendzoned you.

wahh STNE exploded. what a jolly 2020

Oh I also had this thought process. That if there is market crash, and the margin call comes, and your overleveraged.
But! Would one bank dump another banks share? Its systemic they both have guns pointed at each other. Everyone is margin with each other. It didn't happen in the US. They let one die, and then saw what's going to happen to the rest.

I don't get margin of safety now, for the retail investor. When's the last time a good company goes so bad that it was insolvent. I don't think the PE screen for MOS would have been relevant at all anyways.

Is it, its safe because in 6 years it earns it self, and i get the money back. Hmm.. haha.haha. Sure.
Maybe only AirAsia did that..

That was my next thought, they are both local banks with on with the same market. You'd expect trading market shares, more efficiency.

I think, yes of course the property sector will default, and HLB is the least exposed.

But then there is the giant Maybank that adds 2 billion in profit every year, pays out 6.7% divs. That compounds way faster, in the past 10 year of DRIP, one could accumulate so many shares entitled to bajillion dividends. The effect is more pronounced if you have additional capital along the way. HLB returns 292%, now Maybank because of the shares X market price = value... when there are higher price swings, you hit big. The range is 211% to 450%

Generally, i love Public banks service & HLB business sense. I use PBB margin financing to buy Maybank shares =D.
However, Maybank is the mass market. For now, and definitely the near future. Oil & Gas, Petronas, Infra, HSR, 75% of the population, the rest of SEA, Takaful, etc..

PLus the fact that Maybank is too big too fail. They can carry the worst NPL everyday, but its their national obligation =D

I hear by hook or by cook, aramco will start sending in tankers in qtr1 - must be processed.

I withdraw my recommendation, there are more than meets the eye.

Some RPTs i am unable to ascertain was in the best interests.

I've learnt a lot today. Thank you for taking the time to share.

"Any company that has a roe below 8% I usually don't bother with."

It's quite difficult to assess what's the true ROE on recent capital deployed. How do you do it? I guess one has to dissect out the new spending, and look at the incremental generated from it.

Philip you should have bought some of those "founder" shares sold.
For sentiments.

Don't mean to push - yes many plantations, the older ones. I think overvalued, at the right value, or yeah maybe a bit cheaper than it should be, definitely not multiple baggers.

But jayatiasa..

But would you buy KLK if its 80% down with same cashflow n fundamentals? Now that's a sure 5 bagger.

hacked this up -

https://imgur.com/gallery/Ytni65y

Don't mean to push - yes many plantations, the older ones. I think overvalued, at the right value, or yeah maybe a bit cheaper than it should be, definitely not multiple baggers.

But jayatiasa..

But would you buy KLK if its 80% down with same cashflow n fundamentals? Now that's a sure 5 bagger.

hacked this up -

https://imgur.com/gallery/Ytni65y

QL has a very small segment in plantations, and looking at it CPO is a side priority, it compliments their livestock business (QL feed), so i think it makes sense to grow plantations just as much as needed too. So that's synergistic and optimal.

Plus i think, seafood and chicken, and oil etc -> all compliments family-mart retail distribution somewhat. But seafood and chicken, they can export and dominate. Hence, better to grow than palm oil.

hmm they should change company name to Synergy Resources la..

there are so many more companies with power-energy plays that have more certainty. why so much time spent on JAKS?? Go look at YTL power or Malakoff. You wont get scammed, or risk the business bankrupting.

Better reward, lower risk, same sector.

yes please. and send back that zakir naik. palm oil also naik.

Omg! okay, you are Greta - haha no plantations then of course! My bad

Happy new year Philip, i've been tracking your posts and picks, i absolutely love them.

Hmm. What's the purpose of HLbank in a 100k portoflio? It's a competition, it wont help you win will it?
Why not Jayatiasa.
https://imgur.com/Ic7pc9L