http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/46354.jsp

RHB Research target price is RM8.57.

http://www.lme.com/metals/non-ferrous/aluminium/#tab2
Dear Mr 360Capitalist, if you were to study the aluminium price chart, the price keeps on dropping sharply. In your opinion, will US$2000 be a strong support level? And why such a sharp drop suddenly?

I will also wait for the ex-date for bonus issues. Not even one lot I sell. Patience will reward. It is just temporary price correction.

Good to buy now. Down on thin volume is positive signal to collect if we look positively at what Mr RC15, Mr Jasonwong89, Mr Cowboy and Mr Duitlai have commented.

Panic selling now. RM7.21 already, Down 16 sen.

Dear Mr Jasonwong89 and Mr Duitlai, roughly when the ex-date will be? Really got potential go above RM10? Today seems no buying volume. Selling pressure is very strong.

Pang72: Great that you have such a positive view on MYEG but they are not appointed to collect GST.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/284978-hot-stock-myeg-drops-10-after-customs-says-co-not-appointed-to-collect-gst.html

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/aluminum_historical_large.html
Looks like aluminium price down a lot at this current moment. Hope that it will soon recover.

Bought 3000 units at RM3.30. Will continue to accumulate on weakness. Fundamental strong share. Not overvalued.

Must have patience and faith. The bonus issue game has not even started yet. Suppose to hand up the proposal to Bursa tomorrow. Now got to delay one month because got to do some amendment to the paper work.

Press Metal Berhad - Time to Shine

Author: kiasutrader | Publish date: Tue, 9 Sep 10:18

Riding on aluminium price recovery. We hold a bullish view on aluminium prices, premised on the increasing popularity of aluminium in the auto industry as a steel alternative, growing demand in emerging markets, and declining global production rates. Thus, we expect aluminium prices to increase to an average of USD1900/MT (+3%) in FY14E and USD2100/MT (+11%) in FY15E. Based on our sensitivity analysis, every USD100/MT increase in aluminum prices could directly translate into a 5% increase in Press Metal (PMETAL)’s bottom line. Hence, we believe PMETAL should benefit directly from the higher price trend as 97% of revenue is derived from its Manufacturing & Trading (M&T) division, which sells aluminum ingots, billets and extrusion products.

Margin expansion in M&T division to drive earnings growth. We are expecting M&T division’s margin to expand significantly by 4.5 times to 8.6% (from 1.9% in FY13). Note that the large quantum of growth is due to a low base effect in FY13 as a result of the Mukah plant shutdown which depressed FY13 earnings. Our margin expectation is on the conservative side, as it is similar to the FY12 level of 8.6%, even though margin should see improvement vs. FY12 due to the new and higher energy-efficient Samalaju plant. As for FY15, we expect PBT margin improvement to 9.2% as the Group is embarking on additional logistics upgrades, which should lower average manufacturing cost per MT. Furthermore, the company is targeting to increase its alloyed aluminum production to 40% by FY16E, which commands a better price premium with minimal additional capex. Overall, we expect the margin expansion to flow straight to bottom line as M&T division contributed 97% of PMETAL’s revenue and 99% of PBT in FY13.

Expect FY14E revenue to surge 25% due to capacity expansion. On top of margin expansion, we are also expecting superior revenue growth of 25% to RM3.9b in FY14E on additional capacity expansion. PMETAL has continued to ramp up production at the Samalaju plant by 33% to its full rated capacity of 320k MT/year of aluminum production. We expect the newly-added capacity to boost revenue immediately. This is because each ‘potline’ consists of about 150 aluminium smelting pots which are operated as a batch. The smelting process runs continuously with each pot producing almost 3 MT of aluminium per day. Hence PMETAL’s new expansion should enjoy optimal capacity utilization from the new potline upon commencement of operations. As for FY15E, we expect revenue growth of 16% to RM4.5b, driven mainly by rising aluminium prices and a shift towards value-add alloyed aluminium products, which command a 15-20% price premium above the market price of aluminum.

Sustainable operating margin due to attractive electricity cost. Based on our estimates, PMETAL has a higher-than-average expected FY14E operating margin of 10.8% compared to its regional peers’ average FY14E margin of 4.5%. The margin advantage is due to the attractive electricity costs compared to other aluminium smelters in the region. We expect the high margin trend to be sustainable as the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) signed between PMETAL and Sarawak Energy (Sesco) in 2011 should be effective for another 22 years. Lastly, we note that PMETAL’s subsidiary Press Metal Bintulu (PMB), which operates the Samalaju smelter, may get an additional 5 years extension for its pioneer status upon expiry in Dec 17 (the current extension started Jan 13).

Trading Buy with a Target Price of RM8.87 based on a target Fwd. P/E of 14.5x on FY15E EPS of 61 sen. Our Fwd. P/E is based on a 5% premium to FBM Mid 70 Index FY15E Fwd. P/E of 13.8x. We believe our benchmark is appropriate as the average FBM Mid 70 (FBM70) market cap of RM4.6b is comparable to PMETAL’s current market cap of RM4.0b. Our premium is justified by strong FY14E-FY15E expected earnings growth of 91%-28%, well exceeding FBM70’s expected 16%-6% growth. At our current TP, we expect a potential total return of 24.1% (21.7% upside, 2.5% dividend yield) which warrants a trading buy recommendation.

At this moment Narra 4.53 and HLIND 8.19. After book closure, HLIND - Narra = 3.66. Far below RHB expectation of 6.12.

I agree, one time chance of a lifetime.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/46354.jsp

As we add up the company’s SOP post exercise at MYR6.12 plus 1.08 NARR share at MYR2.27 each, we derive a cum-dividend FV of MYR8.57, which offers an upside potential of 31.8%. The present market value of NARR also suggests there is more upside from our FV, as its last close suggests that HLI could be worth MYR9.49 on a cum-dividend basis at the former’s last close.

Comment:: But now HLIND and NARRA prices are RM8.23 and RM4.50 respectively. The calculation will be 6.12 + 1.08 X 4.50 = RM10.98. Is it possible?

7.19 is broken. So, can it surge all the way to 8.30?

A disappointing morning for PMETAL. Not active. Down 3 sen.

Lucas Chan: Buy upon market open as the LME aluminium price positive closing will boost PMetal stock price. Next week the new journey will begin with new wave TP at RM8.20 once RM7.19 is broken. Analysis by Mr 360Capitalist

A satisfactory close of RM4.34 for the week after 13 trading days of consolidation.

Not a bad close for the week at RM7.13.

A well done day for CMSB.

But today no buying volume and the selling pressure is great (ever since it breaks RM7.00).

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/aluminum_historical_large.html
Yesterday (Wednesday) the aluminium price chart dropped quite sharply. But today it is recovering. Hopefully, after today's correction, PMETAL can put up a better performance tomorrow.

Wah Bonia, final defence of 1.20 also break.

Whenever PMETAL is in red, LBALUM, ARANK and PMBTECH will be very very green. Anyway, I have keyed in RM6.96 to queue for 1000 units of PMETAL to add up.

Dayang proposed private placement. Not a good news.

No, I mean the delay in processing the bonus issue applications. One of the reason Lysaght price drop is having problem with their application until thay need Bursa to give extension time to them.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1729581

On behalf of the Board of Directors of PMB, Maybank Investment Bank Berhad wishes to announce that the applications to the relevant authorities for the Proposals shall be made within two (2) months from the date of the Initial Announcement instead of within one (1) month as stated in the Initial Announcement as the Company requires more time to prepare the same in view of the proposed amendments to the deed poll dated 20 July 2011 constituting the warrants 2011/2019 of the Company which was announced today.

Not that please with the above company efficiency problem in preparing the required paper work for the bonus issues applications to Bursa Malaysia. Hope and pray that it will not be the same case as Lysaght.

I don't think that it will drop till RM1 (RM4.00 before ex).

The final support is RHB support line of RM1.20 (before ex RM4.80).

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/08/30/Bonia-steps-up-overseas-expansion-plan/

B O N I A: Sat News (The Star newspaper)

This may spark price trend reversal next week.

Published: Saturday August 30, 2014 MYT 12:00:00 AM
Updated: Saturday August 30, 2014 MYT 7:21:32 AM
Bonia steps up overseas expansion plan

BONIA: Ex-split; Ex-Bonus

Chartwise : Very bad, totally out of support. But this is normal for any stock that has undergone split or bonus issue.
Outstanding pointer: RSI currently at 18%. This means the stock is oversold
MACD : Price coming down aggressively and MACD trending up to neutral line. This is term as 'bullish divergence'
Bollinger Band: downward price movement causes Bollinger to expand negatively 1st. day at 26%, 2nd. day increase to 43% and today contracted to 20%. Bollinger band 20 is calling for price to move up as it is now trending outside the band like a lost child.

Expectation: With all the reason stated above, the expectation is for the price to start trending higher. The 1st. thing to expect is to get the price move up within the BB20 zone, meaning the closing price must move higher.
If this is fulfill and the Bollinger 10 begins to contract, the price must keep moving up above the Bollinger middle band at 1.39. From here the price must keep on sustaining higher than 1.39 to keep it in positive momentum.
If the trending is in accordance to what is stated, there is a great chance for the stock to move higher and the MACD moving up closer to the neutral line. The price position must sit above the Bollinger middle band at least at 1.39.

Conclusion: If the describe scenario takes place as expected, there is a positive chance for this stock to turn bullish once the MACD signal line reaches the neutral zone and this may happen within 2 weeks time frame.

If the price is not closing above 1.39, preferably not to buy yet.

Highlights / Stock Picks of the Day - Press Metal Bhd (PMETAL) – Not Rated

Author: kiasutrader | Publish date: Fri, 29 Aug 10:25
PMETAL’s share price has been consolidating for the past few weeks. Yesterday, PMETAL jumped 28 sen (+4.5%) to settle at RM6.55 supported by increase in daily trading volume. Chart-wise, a bullish “Marubozu” candlestick has taken out the strong resistance level of RM6.30. Key indicators – MACD, RSI and Stochastics are also turning bullish, suggesting that the buying interest is building up. We reckon that there would be a continuation of the previous uptrend, thus the share price could rally to RM7.00 (R1) and possibly RM7.25 (R2) next.

Kenanga Research

Dear qwerty, based on the graph of Bonia, is it well supported at RM1.24 (the lowest level since ex-bonus).

Back to 6.55 from 6.69. Why take profit so fast? Still a long way to go up.

Aug 28 : Aluminium prices up 1.2% to USD2108 from USD2085.50.

Rotational play of aluminium counters may come to LBALUM and ARANK turn. Both of them will release their quarter results next month.

Rotational play of aluminium counters may come to LBALUM and ARANK turn. Both of them will release their quarter results next month.

Rotational play of aluminium counters may come to LBALUM and ARANK turn. Both of them will release their quarter results next month.

The bonus issues application has not even been forwarded to Bursa Malaysia yet. Based on AEON who used Maybank IB as their underwriter, their application was forwarded to Bursa after 1 month time. So, the expected date for PMETAL's application to reach Bursa's hands will be 12.09.2014 and Bursa will take 10 market days to approve it.

360Capitalist second resistance price of 6.55 is broken through at 3:40 pm Thursday.

Joel's target price of 6.50 (by this week) is broken through at 3:22 pm Thursday.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/304984-hot-stock-press-metal-rises-3-on-higher-aluminium-prices.html

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/aluminum_historical_large.html
Wednesday aluminium price closed at US$0.9227/lb (or US$2043/tonne). Another record closing high.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/london-metal-exchange-dismissed-u-price-fixing-lawsuits-182437865--sector.html

5:30PM ALCOM 1Q net loss 1.241 million (increased 55.13%)

Usually bonus issues got four catalysts, i.e. (1) When Bursa approves the bonus issues application (2) One day after EGM (3) Five trading days before the ex date (4) The first day after ex. Three long months to wait for the whole process to be completed.

Just look at the charts of GKENT and OKA (uptrend).

There is not much resistance from 6.24 to 6.28. According to Mr360Capitalist, the resistance of 6.28 must be broken convincingly in order to have a stronger uptrend.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/304666-aluminum-trades-near-18-month-high-as-us-outlook-improves.html

Good news, good news. Aluminium price hits another all time high. Last time it was US$0.9186/lb (or US$2025/tonne). Currrently it is US$0.9259/lb (or US$2041/tonne)

Today's closing price of 6.15 is not too bad. Hoping for a better tomorrow especially if the interview with the CEO, Dato Koon Poh Keong, is published in a few newspapers.