There is nothing much the shorties can short. They been covering back once it reached below 3.07. Next they short again from 3.16/3.15 and then covered back again. They were playing with just 0.10 differenced nowadays among themselves.

Pe 3 -5 only can be used for this year to balance out. You can't carry forward it and using low PE for the next 3-4 years. That would be incorrect valuation. In fact, some tech stocks already reached PE 100 and would it be balanced back soon end this year as the rally has been ongoing for 10 months now?

You must have missed one of my comments. Let me repost it again.

Aug 23, 2021 11:12 AM | Report Abuse

Nobody is hoping for PE100. Assuming June 30 was the peak for super profit and maintain 1 billion profit. That would be around EPS150 for the FY2021. Assuming that the ASP will drop from now on (as per what estimated by the market and IB back in last year before they heard of Delta, Lambda, Vaccination losing its effect after 6 months, booster shots required, world population is still under vaccinated even after 9 months), let's said the profit down back to 30% of the peak in 2023 (70% lower), that would be around EPS45. With PE15-20 which was the NORM, I repeat the NORM prior to Covid 19, Supermax should value at RM6.75 - RM9.00. Assuming in 2024, down another 30% of profit, the EPS would be 31.5. WIth PE15-20, Supermax should value at RM4.72 - RM6.30. Come 2025, another 30% drop of profit, Supermax would value at RM3.3 - RM4.41. That is 2025 for gosh sake! This only materialize if ASP dropped drastically in 2022 and 2023 (losing a total of 70%) and subsequently ASP losing 30% each year in 2024 and 2025.

All these didnt even factor in the volume increase, cash on hands, the automation investment, new biz venture (with 4-5 billions on hands, you can do wonder). The market is now valuing the counter purely on profit decline, not on the actual growth. The market is valuing the counter based on profit 1 billion per quarter and how much decline it gonna be in 2023 in comparison with 1 billion. If i made rm100mil per quarter in 2025, i gonna make rm400 mil in 2025. I still make money for gosh sake. Not that I make 90% loss as they compute it as 400mil/4 bil = 10%.

MM just simply divide 1.30/2 and get 0.65, citing that Supermax was trading around 1.30 pre Covid 19. My memory recalled 1.30 was the lowest in 2019 and the price actually went up back to 1.70 ++ before the rally due to Covid 19. MM just used whatever lowest price to compute and discounted all the expansion, cash on hand, higher ASP, automation and improvement, etc.

I think should give some buffer and discount as past experience showed that Supermax may not be able to expand up to 48 billions capacity by 2023. In addition, the management can always delay the expansion if the ASP drops significantly.


pjseow Tonee , thanks . The assumption is based on.ASP coming down to US 25 which was the ASP of FY2020 . Pls note that FY 2020 comprises of 8 months non pandemic and 4 months pandemic period. The consensus stabilised ASP among glove makers , MAARGA and IBs are US 30 to 35 post pandemic. You can see that even at US25, supermx can generate about 1 b profit per year which is about 8 to 9 x of prepandemic profit. Yes. the tgt price of 7 is considered fair . In fact this was the average tgt
prices given by 6 Ibs after Q3 result was announced in.early May. They slasshed the tgt prices unreasonably by more than 50 % although everyone stated that the recent Q4 result was.within their expectations.

Volumes had been low for 1.5 months and price has stabilized around RM3.1. All weak holders and retailers have already exited and moved on. Hence, RSS cant really play now in Kossan as it has reach its bottom. Limited shares to be sold lower for the short to cover.

Don't think fund would invest in ACE market counter.

Today no RSS on Supermax and Kossan but on Top Glove. Yesterday Top Glove was spared.

Seem 0.485 is a stable price now.

Ular got money can afford that. I cant.


UlarSawa Ok noted. For me different. Ular buy level by level. tingkat 4 then tingkat 3 then next will be tingkat 2. Not base on auspicious number. Correct?

They just aim to cover back at 3.10. LOL. wanna earn rm30 only for 3 plates of nasi lemak with ayam goreng.

dompeilee Shorties getting desperate...their avg selling price is only $3.1355!
03/09/2021 11:54 AM

Dont be pening. When it comes then buy. When 8.88 comes then sell. I cant be buying simply as i need to average down significantly.

UlarSawa You so good waiting for nice number to buy. Typical chinese like auspicious number one. 333 is nice number. 328 sound better. Ada fatt number should be good number. 288 nearer to JPM analist 280 leh. 238. 268. 128 and 118 even better sound leh. Like this how. What number to buy now. Many nice numbers leh. Ular pun pening kepala leh. Correct?
03/09/2021 11:29 AM
03/09/2021 11:50 AM

No TP or analysts craps except for Kenanga. Previously those IBs already have prepared scripts even before the results was released. Hence they can just do some amendment get it published in a day or two after results. This time, the number they prepared must have not tallied and need to work out the number again after seeing Supermax reporting 959 million profit and not 500 million profit. Now they must be headache on crunching the numbers again.

pjseow It has been a week since Supermx released its FY 2021 Q4 result . Did anybody has Nomura , RHB, AFFIN BANK and BIMB Analyst reports ? THis time I did not see any detailed ASP, Capacity and profit guidance from Analyst report?

Just steady. I m ready to average down if IBs can attack it until 3.33. Nice number.

All the sell Q gone as commented earlier.

Coordinated sell down now moved the volumes to 3.12 from 3.13 earlier.

Wonder why there is no new TP after the results? Last few quarters the Analysts were fast to release their reports within a day or two. Seems like already pre prepared them even before Supermax released results. This round, all so quiet except for Kenanga.

High sell Q at 3.13 and high buy Q at 3.1. That means they have set the range and block at this level. Come 440pm, all these Q would mysteriously cancelled. It has been months since we see such high volumes of Q. Similar trend happening in Kossan too.

Total net short position is 47,967,985 as of 1st Sept 2021. Earlier last month was around 33 million if recalled correctly. The shorties had increased their shorting volume by 14 million within a month.

Shorties been shorting around 3.07-3.10 since 23rd August for around 7.4 million shares with total value around RM23 millions.

Coordinated sell down. Can see how they play by depressing level by level. High volumes low seller. And they only focus on clearing the buying q per level each time. All the volume coordinated and focus on a single sell q to depress the buyers. Only big players would have the volume of shares to do so.

Just see both sell Q and buy Q. Such high volumes for the past one week. supermax is being sell down before they picked it up back at lower price. Yesterday they were queueing at 3.20, today they q at 3.10.

Today Kossan played catch up as it didnt follow the rest earlier in the week. While othes turn red today.

How s the RSS today? The shorties have been increasing the short for the past few weeks.

So many fake sell Q which got cancelled before 4:50PM

Wow! See the block.

RHB suddenly positive on Supermax technicality. Not fundamentally.

smyang11 But IB not interested with glove stock related counter now. Lol

Not now doesn't mean forever not interested. IBs also not interested prior to Covid. Just enjoy the dividends first. Afterall, the price isn't at peak and discounted 50% while stabilizing around 0.5. Potential for Esceramics are as follow:

1.Higher new demands for the next 2-3 years from China, Thailand and Malaysia players. Esceramic has purchased two plots of lands recently to expand their production capacity.

2. Higher recurring sales due to wear and tears of the formers within 12-18 months for all the existing players and new players. The more players and bigger expansion, the more wear and tears formers replacement due to usage.

3. Listing in main market after more than 10 years in ACE Market. Such listing was considered few years back and it should be the right time to go for it now.

4. Potential of new key shareholders who want a piece of the glove pie but not interested in the actual Big 4 players. Such key shareholder could be from the GLC or Statutory as the Gov may want to invest in the glove industry in moving forward instead of just focusing on Oil and Gas after learning about the lesson of Covid.

Local analysts are just newbies and follow the pack. JPM is Alpha pack and lead everyone to follow its scheme of deceit. JPM has achieved its TP and would have completed whatever it meant to be. Next, would be back to the logic and fundamental of the counters.

Seem RSS is still aggressive on Kossan. Anyone has the RSS value for today?

Mah Sing's chief executive officer Datuk Ho Hon Sang said the group has a new state-of-the-art factory as the foundation of its glove manufacturing business.

“With our global certifications, we are ready to serve the export markets such as the United States, Canada, Middle East, Europe, United Kingdom, Japan, China, Korea, Singapore, amongst others, to capture higher demand for gloves in these countries," he added.

He also believes 2021 will be an exciting year for the group as it showed its commitment to be a long-term player in the glove business and continues to grow its network globally.

“We are also more than ready to receive more orders as we have the capacity to cater to the global glove demand in the near future," he said.

Looking ahead, he said the demand for personal protective equipment including gloves is expected to see structural increase, driven by potential factors such as fears of re-infection, adaptation to new norms, higher health awareness and hygiene compliance requirements for healthcare and non-healthcare sectors such as aviation, food and beverages, retails, tourism and hospitality.

Mah Sing is excited on gloves prospects but Analysts said otherwise. Mah Sing must be crazy to invest in a sunset industry as claimed by some here.

Shorties need to work hard tomorrow to suppress the price.

Sooner or later the analysts would adjust their report and citing FY25 to justify their low TP. Forecasting 4 years in advance from 3 years previously. The analysts can even look into the future 4 years from now. Must give them standing ovation. I only know that analysts usually forecast for around 6 months. Now we are talking about 36 months to 48 months.

All with their hidden agenda and manipulation. Else how to make money during such pandemic? It s a fact that ASP would normalize even when it was growing higher from March 2020 - Aug 2020. Back then all the analysts kept giving high TP. Isn't that they knew ASP would normalize in 2023? It isn't rocket science. Just singing different tune to suit their agenda and theme.

Just for the past 2 quarters, the boss n families already pocketed around rm300 mil of dividends. Back in 2020 around rm200 mil dividends.

As of June, the boss hold directly and indirectly of around 48% of shares. Unless he pledged some shares for loans, there won't be any concern of margin call. The consortiums won't be able to secure 50% ++ shares from the market as there is only 52% not hold by the founder and families. Whoever thought of shorting until the boss selling the shares is either a fool or ill advised. It just affect the boss net worth on paper and nothing more as the company still operating and generating high profit and paying dividends. Can u imagine how much boss received in term of dividends for his 48% holding?

Even if they short the price until rm1, it won't affect the boss..their shares remains the same and he can buy more cheap shares from the market to increase his holding. As long as the company makes money and pay good dividend, the boss will still receive his salary and dividends and all the peaks. The only worry is if someone or some consortium gain more than 50% of the shares and take control of the company.

Should ASP drops below USD40, all new players would close shops and sell their biz cheaply to the big 4 who would be happily to take over their brand new factories.

Agreed, that more RSS attacking Kossan these past two weeks.

The market was expecting recovery in end Q2 and Q3 this year. Now we are entering Sept already and no recovery is on sight. The IBs just refused to admit their short sightedness because there are stakes on the table. The tourism n travel counters would cont to post losses amid lower losses and the gloves would cont to post profit amid lower profit and such trend may last for another 3-4 quarters. A company that post 900 mil profit in comparison to a company that post 200-300 mil losses every quarter. Yet the IBs would go for the losses counters since their justification was that 300 mil losses per quarter to 100 mil losses per quarter in a year time is better than 900 mil profit per quarter to 500 mil profit per quarter. Their logic really baffled me.

A single seller selling 1000 biji and q at 3.86.

Plantation will never make it due too many external factors which are beyond their controls. If you happen to hold plantation counters and making profit now, time to take profit. Never hold plantation counters for mid-long term. Playing touch n go is ok.

Anything higher than RM800mil profit is above market expectation.

Today so many sellers setting great wall. Tomorrow need to pay dividend, today selling down as much as possible to pick up cheap shares later?

Once QR out, it would confirm whether ASP is really down that much as estimated by the IBs or it doesnt. This result gonna be the decisive point.

Nobody is hoping for PE100. Assuming June 30 was the peak for super profit and maintain 1 billion profit. That would be around EPS150 for the FY2021. Assuming that the ASP will drop from now on (as per what estimated by the market and IB back in last year before they heard of Delta, Lambda, Vaccination losing its effect after 6 months, booster shots required, world population is still under vaccinated even after 9 months), let's said the profit down back to 30% of the peak in 2023 (70% lower), that would be around EPS45. With PE15-20 which was the NORM, I repeat the NORM prior to Covid 19, Supermax should value at RM6.75 - RM9.00. Assuming in 2024, down another 30% of profit, the EPS would be 31.5. WIth PE15-20, Supermax should value at RM4.72 - RM6.30. Come 2025, another 30% drop of profit, Supermax would value at RM3.3 - RM4.41. That is 2025 for gosh sake! This only materialize if ASP dropped drastically in 2022 and 2023 (losing a total of 70%) and subsequently ASP losing 30% each year in 2024 and 2025.

All these didnt even factor in the volume increase, cash on hands, the automation investment, new biz venture (with 4-5 billions on hands, you can do wonder). The market is now valuing the counter purely on profit decline, not on the actual growth. The market is valuing the counter based on profit 1 billion per quarter and how much decline it gonna be in 2023 in comparison with 1 billion. If i made rm100mil per quarter in 2025, i gonna make rm400 mil in 2025. I still make money for gosh sake. Not that I make 90% loss as they compute it as 400mil/4 bil = 10%.

cant believe some still bashing this counter since last year. Spending almost 12 months just to bash the counter. Can you gain anything by bashing it? The resentment and grudge must be damn high. Must have entered above rm22 during the peak and cut loss when at rm18 before Supermax split. Just a 4k loss already have the resentment to bash for a year. If 40k loss, gonna bash for whole life.

Historically they would declare dividend in Sept.

This counter has been trading side way for almost 2.5 month around 0.5. Just be patient and enjoy the dividend in Sept.

If this happens, 50% of Malaysian would be gone. Who gonna care about recovery? There wont be recovery and Bursa too will close shop. End of the world is here.

Be Very, Very Careful what you wish....Lamb'Da coming ( vaccine resistance )
ALL bangla in SuperMax will be dead...who is going to operate machinery??
3 months SuperMax will declare Bankrupt and you got All the Toilet paper you want
20/08/2021 4:52 PM