Let me be brutally honest. The fact that Christine admitted she's not the 10% who's trading or investing profitably and the fact that so many of you agreed with her comments clearly shows one thing.... You have not found your edge!

Trading profitably consistently is not about being one up in your battles against Mr Market or the syndicates, but the triumph in the war between yourselves .

When you realize that ultimately, whether you are conditioned to be a winner is a culmination of how to get your emotions in check when the stock drops or rises, your psychological fortitude to ride your profits and withstand /cut your losses, and the mental strength of of undying self belief (not stubbornness) in your convictions.

Only when you find your edge can one triumph over yourself. People like warren buffet have an edge (he buys only businesses he understands below intrinsic value), people like Mr Koon has an uncanny ability to smell out good value in his own way and stay to his convictions.

As someone who's been trading since 18 years old (now 42), I've lost my pants, been thru a few crises, traded anything that moves, I am now trading profitably for a living, I have to say that I totally agree with all the points that Mr Koon has so kind to list down.

When one has found your own edge, you will be at peace with your trades, look forward to the next opening bell, confidence of your convictions because you know your stock is acting 'correctly' and most importantly, triumph over your biggest enemy, your self

I am a momentum trader, I don't command the lines that Mr Koon does, I don't trade for the multi bagger winners, I can't buy the lowest nor sell at the highest price, yet I'm not sorry about it because that's not my edge. Find yours, for when you finally win the battle over yourself, you will win the war at the markets.

Not sure how much new traffic they will enjoy but I did remembered Jeffery Cheah blaming the traffic consultants on the bad advice given for the poor performance. If they had built the toll plaza on the ramp after Cheras perdana to bdr Sg long (and not after that towards Kajang), they would have capitalize on the tremendous traffic volume of Sg long and bdr mahkota residents.

With a vested interest, I can ask you guys to continue chasing it but honestly, a few of us are already planning an exit strategy. With so much hype and noise, fence sitters are being lured in now. My advice, you don't have to be a hero. You'll have another chance. Let it go and have a merry CNY

Having said that, I have not sold a single lot yet as the price and volume action thus far justifies to continue riding this stock.

Stockinvestor, that's hardly regarded as dropping. Price is near high and it's consolidating nicely.

At this moment, the price and the volume action has yet to indicate that this phase of the rally is over. I'm staying fully invested and have not sold a single lot

Posted by psd57 > Jan 22, 2014 03:23 PM | Report Abuse

Dont get too complicated, just the resistance and support level, is wht we asked. No need to get into permutations and all the blah blah !!!

Answer: the day you realize the simplicity of what I've previously posted is the day when one will not trade anything that moves but patiently waits for the high probability moves to sufficiently develop before taking the plunge. The stock will act 'correctly' upon your entry.

'The money is in the sitting and waiting. Wait till the factors are in your favor before making the trade' Jesse Livermore

Anyway, the price and volume action on the recovery rally leg to .65 indicates more upside to come. This rally may not be exhausted yet. Hold out for higher prices

OTB is right. There is no way to predict so-called target prices because it's the collective complex permutations of the emotions of fear, greed and sentiments.

That's why target prices usually either fall way short or far overshot. For the investor they have a margin of safety calculation whilst the trader, if he had bought the stock at the onset of a breakout continuation off a well formed base, that is his margin of safety

All we need to know now is that the path of least resistance for this stock is up. Enjoy the ride while sticking to your game plan.

I was thinking if I should respond, then I thought
Firstly, he's an idiot and secondly, ...nah, that pretty much covers it.
That moment on, I've decided to be at peace. :)

I'll just pen my words on this topic here...

It is very difficult to get a good honest person to be willing to share his work in a public forum for a simple fact that it may attract unwarranted attacks from geniuses with the IQ of a goal-post, like now.

People like OTB and Kcchong should be commended for willing to do just that. They can never be right all the time and Occasionally, they may rant off as a way to de-stress but unless one can claim to be utterly superior than them, it is best as Confucius would say, the keep your mouth shut and pretend to be dumb than to open your it and remove all doubt

I laugh my toes reading several pages of utter nonsense.

OTB, for all your track record in your analysis, you don't need to prove to your disbelievers. Many newbies hv benefited from your analysis else they would either be trading blindly or trading anything that moves.

I'm surprised that you need to stoop to their level to prove your integrity. Maybe,it's because you are a remisier and running a commercial course that you think its necessary to protect the character from assassination.

What I usually do when faced with mindless troublemakers is that , just ask yourself... Do you want to be right or do you want to be at peace? If you want to be right, be prepared to fight like hell. Then, I'll know I'll rather be at peace.

And talkingkangkung, leave the man alone. He doesn't owe anyone a living. It's entirely his prerogative whether he wants to sell below 1.09 and he should rightfully, without influence of emotions, decide what is best for his positions.

If I may offer my humble opinion from a momentum traders perspective, I think I can more or less gauge your trading style from the imposition of your stop loss. Just for sharing sake, you may wish to note the inverted hammer that occurred on 31 dec accompanied with a volume spike (volume nearly equal or higher than the last volume spike) If this similar setup occurs in a consolidating stock, it is wise to pay heed to the next move that follows. Psychologically, it simply means the play is paused and tactic is to catch as many followers on the way up. It means this phase of the rally may come to an end.

The price and volume movement on 3 jan when it broke below 1.3 on above average volume on the downside is a confirmation. Pay attn to half day volume on the breakdown, and then arbitrarily multiply that by 2. If there is volume increase and price is breaking on the downside, consider reducing positions. Will the price go higher later? Maybe it just will because we know stock prices will reflect fundamentals in the long term but as momentum traders, I wouldn't want my money to be stuck indefinitely.

On another note, I think traders should seriously consider reducing positions on stocks that have done a run up. The breakdown yesterday on the KLCI was accompanied by higher than average volume. This may not be a normal market correction but one that will tide the entire market with it for some time. Of course, this advice is simply for traders. I guess, investors will be unperturbed.

Of course, I am always wrong. Good luck and happy thaipusam

From a trader's perspective, being shaken out of a trade and then seeing the stock rise almost immediately remains one of the most frustrating experience. However, just as the investor, if the trader can still justify that the 'fundamentals' of the price and volume action remain intact, he can continue to stay in the trade.

Understand that the business of speculation is human induced. Therefore, just as any humans, the syndicates must time their play so as to reap maximum profit . That means, if they have an opportunity to ride your emotions of fear (to collect at a cheaper price) or greed (change of play to drive higher due to better participation).

Therefore, if one were to follow a mechanically created system, eg MACD, Stoch or RSI which are price-centric, they can be easily shaken out when the market turns a little worse but it's not an inherent weakness of the stock itself.

Technicians make the mistake of following the indicator rules without understanding the PSYCHOLOGY behind the move. You hear of people mentioned 3 black crows, marubusu, etc etc and that it's immediately means bullish or bearish. So, the hapless guy will say bcos its 3 black crows, its bearish. Try to decipher the psychology behind that formation. Match it to volume to better your reading.

Therefore,my contribution to this article from a traders perspective is that if one were to buy a long consolidating (say 4-6 months min) stock on a start of a breakout momentum, if the stock were to retrace that move and go lower, is it going lower because of its inherent weakness or is it moving lower in sympathy with general market conditions?

If it's the former, run like hell. If it's the latter, hold it because your analysis is still valid. Bcos this stock will bounce back very strongly and exceed their initial price.

What's the psychology there? The syndicate was preparing for a play but for some reasons, a bad news QE tapering for an example, comes out. The whole market is taken down. What do you think the syndicate will do? Absorb your stock at high price or maximize my profit by buying lower, quietly.

Use volume as your guidance. (Save for giving you a fish, This is the best tip I can give you)

PS: and I absolutely abhor technical indicators. One of the stupidest guidance is that a stock in overbought can continue to be in overbought territory for some time. Ok, then what's the meaning of overbought. Let me tell you a secret. You can see this on the chart itself - because the price continues to rise.

If you are not good in TA or FA, here's one way to trade. follow the stars LOL

For the believers, here's Lillian Too 2014 prediction.

Stock market will do well in the first 6 months, get out by august and get completely out by December.

Caveat emptor! Here's the full summary

http://bitly.com/19GNlEq

Enjoy

Mr Koon, except for a few mindless troublemakers, I don't think you should take people's conservatism to heart. Many of us have been thru Asian financial crisis, where it was fashionable to borrow in USD. When the local currency collapse, interest rates were jacked as high as 14,5% and many mortgage borrowers suffered, loans defaulted and homes auctioned off. Thereafter, we were taught to be prudent and aim to be debt-free. People have short memories bcos its now fashionable to use other people's money to make more money. People laugh at you for buying assets to lease out when it's more fashionable to flip for a profit. Household debt is now at highest and as S&P has warned, when the bubble burst, the double whammy of falling asset prices and high loans ratio is a huge risk to the banking system. The point I'm trying to make is that unlike super investors like yourself, ordinary Joe like us are less savvy when it comes to leverage. Bcos of their small capital base, they want to get rich quick in that for every $1, I want to make $10 in the shortest time. But they will soon realize that it doesn't work that way in real life.

And then there is the 'cannot lose' conviction because its a sure win. Adolf Merckle, the billionaire German industrialist, who lost a few hundred million euros shorting Volkswagen bcos he believed that VW was way overvalued at the onset of the European crisis in 2008 and that it will fall when Porsche stops the buying of VW shares which he believe they will. together with other hedge funds, they shorted VW on leverage and then Porsche announced that they have effectively cornered VW stock and wants to have their borrowed shares back and put a sky high price for their stock. VW shares jumped 5 fold in 2 days and at its peak, its market cap was more valuable than Exxon Mobil. Porsche made a killing while Adolff killed himself by jumping in front of the moving train.

And then we have Jim Rogers, the legendary ex partner of George Soros, who was a strong gold bull. At USD 1900/oz, he advocated buy. At USD 1500, he says it was a bargain and that if people cannot take 30% swings! they should not be in any investments. Gold is now around USD1200 and has corrected more than 30%, Jim is rather quiet these days . He may be quietly buying, yes but ordinary Joe like us will be wiped out with such a fall and probably must faster if leverage was used.

Mr Koon, my intention is not to mock your analysis. I don't qualify. You have a proven track record and your intentions meant well. Maybe you may wish to put yourself in the shoes of the less savvy average Joe, capital management tactics may be more prudent than leverage with the aim of a single kill.

In order to win at the markets, one must learn not to lose his pants first.

The difference between skill and luck

"When a trade stops out, was it because your original hypothesis was wrong or because you were unlucky with the timing? When a trade is successful, was it for the reason you expected or did you catch a lucky break? If you can’t tell if you're clever or lucky, then you are nothing more than a passenger. . For, useless statistics cloud judgements while useful ones are predictive and persistent. skill is controllable and repeatable, luck is not."
Mike mauboussin

Chrollo, it took me a long and painful journey to be able to trade profitably for a living. I wouldn't suggest you mortgage your home and plough it into the markets. You'll have to determine what your speculating personality is, trader or investor? Then hone your skills around these. Read lots of books and find out what works for you. For me, the defining moment came when I read 'reminiscences of a stock operator' and was amazed how the legendary speculator, jesse Livermore, traded simply on price and volume action. The book contains insights into how a stock operator manipulates the markets and is a mandatory read for all trading interns at the large broking houses in US. From therein, I just continued my study and research into it until my hone my skills.

Leverage featured heavily in Livermore's speculations and at his height, his worth was worth the equivalent of 100billion today. Alas, he died poor and probably from his losses compounded with over extended credit.

But, his teachings and quotes are as much gems and wisdom as they are buffet's.

Chief among which, a fool and his money will soon be parted

Kcc, thanks for the honest words. I have no regrets not borrowing to leverage on my speculations . It is precisely because of this that my line is not over extended and I'm able to control my emotions and trade objectively .

And I have no arguments with a kamikaze speculator who strikes it big in a fluke but as you are aware, a successful speculator is someone who is able to do it consistently.. That's why I'm resign to the fact that I'm never gonna get a multi bagger from a single stock holding, being a momentum trader. That's not my edge and I'm not sorry about it.

Yes, luck plays a role but to strike lottery , you will still need the effort to buy the ticket in the first place. Thus, in some ways, you make your own luck . If I may add, the keys to profit is to find your trading edge and have the discipline and conviction to stick to it.

And again, I thank you for your wonderful nuggets of wisdom

I believe margin financing will appeal to someone who knows what they are doing. Someone who's aware of risk, have traded or invested profitably and consistently and wants more leverage on their trading or investing edge.

I believe for these people, they know how to allocate capital to account for eventualities

But bottom line for me, if you can trade on your own money, that's always the best.

Taking on additional leverage will subject even the best traders to the vagaries of emotions when their line becomes too large to the point where his decision is affected and no longer objective. Trade or invest on what's comfortable to you and not borrow with your baby's the milk money too

IMHO, I think kcc can benefit from some form of market timing tactics to complement his sound FA. Buffet was a market mover in that he can be buying at any stage and still the stock will move due to his brand name but mere mortals like us is hardly make a statistic at all.

I'm sure kcc has some simple entry rules in his arsenal and not just 'buy at any price point as long as it is value' approach. Ooi teik Bee may be a good in between for both camps of FA and TA

For me, I'm lousy (or just too lazy) at FA. My trades are 90% TA-based and just based on simple 'tape reading' techniques of price and volume action. No indicators whatsoever to cloud my judgement. If a a stock hits my filter, usually just 1 or 2 will catch my eye for a watch or trade Ina a day or sometimes, none at all. I'll then check the simple fundamentals like profit, NTA and PE. looks ok, I'll trade and then ride the momentum . I'm not good at (and no time since momentum trading is about seizing opportunities) using IV, DCF or other models to check.

Which is why I'm still riding trades in success, astino, MFCB, farlim, gmutual. Stocks that have good simple numbers but may be avoided by the pure fundamentalist for its inherent lack of solid foundation in the numbers.

As for leverage, I'm not convinced if I should take it on. My returns are good. The past year realized profit is 80% while if I'll add my running profits in(stocks not sold), it's about 130%. But this is achieved thru very high frequency of trades . If I use OPM, my statistic will look much better but to me, statistic is meaningless. In all practicality, if I can afford to buy cash, just use it otherwise it'll just lie idle in Fd earning 3% while margin will cost me 4,5%, thus net is still a negative 1.5%. Then I ask, what's the point then? KCC just vindicated this argument

Very informative article on the pitfalls of leverage, chong! I like your writings and generous sharing of your knowledge. I've just enquired on Mr koon's article on leverage and whether I should give it a go as a swing and momentum trader. I guess you have helped answer that niggling question for me.

Mr koon, I've always admired your charitable culture. it's an inspiration to all. On the subject of margin financing, I've always wondered about the specialists remarking that to use one's own capital is not an efficient utilization of capital. But say for instance, I'm prepared to and have the financial means to invest 300k in the markets, do I still allocate part of that into leverage or should I just stay on my own?
I'm aware of the yadda yadda regarding superior returns with leverage but if I have the means, should I just invest with my own money and not share my rewards with the bank?
My profile is I'm a swing and momentum trader and trades for a living. My holdings could be anywhere between 2 days to usually no longer than 3 months for trading stock. I'll hold it as long as it's acting correctly. My trade velocity is high in that due to frequencies of trade, my monthly turnover is easily 0.7 to 1.5 times of invested capital.

I've considered leverage but can't find myself a solid reason yet

Ganasai, be careful with such advice especially high risk counters like SPACs. Even top blue chips like Enron and transmile can lose you your entire capital is one were to continue to hold on to it in a downtrend.

Honestly, very few will sell at $2.70 because you are riding the uptrend wave but the disciplined trader would have sensed something to be not right on dec 18 when by late morning there was sustained pressure with high volume to the downside. Had one heeded this signal, you could have easily got out 2,4o to 2.50. Maybe not all your holdings but you'd taken profit on some

Rather than trying to justify how little the impact of the write off of the recent exploration is to hibiscus,I think the optimists here should accept the fact that the stock was driven or manipulated up on very high expectations thus when this is not met, the correction is well expected. How can one argue that the write off is simply equivalent 3 sen and expect the stock to only correct 3 sen from its $2.70 high? Get real, guys

Barring any bad news, the stock saw strong support and no more inspired selling between 1-47 and 1.53. This is also the base support that traced back to a year before the hype. For those already in the boat and aggressive traders,You can make an intelligent guess that this is a 'safe' level to average or enter.

Speculators are always forgiving. Before long, they will forget this failure and cheer the start off the next exploration. But this time, punters will be a little more cautious and will not chase it to lofty heights until a real positive result is achieved. If you had averaged lower, you can sell into this rally soon

Good luck

Why still wanna compound someone's misery by rubbing it in and resorting to personal attacks ? It serves no purpose other than a reflection of one own self.

. I'm sure we were all in this position before. Let it go. Make friends, not enemies

Get real, guys. The market doesn't owe anybody a living.

In fact, I think it may be a blessing for disciplined traders that the stock was not suspended for there were strong signals to exit before the bloodbath. Had it been suspended at a high and then the bad news announced, there'd been even more blood.

Yes, ethically it was wrong for it not to be suspended but ultimately, a traders objective is to follow the smart money and the trail was laid if one had the experience and most importantly, discipline to follow.

Use this forum to lament, whine, complain or even bitch your dissatisfaction at how unfairly your interests have been treated. Ultimately, you have to wake up to the fact that the market doesn't owe you a living and the syndicates, who are in control of the news flow, will know how to ride your emotions tomorrow.

Your best bet is to plan your exit strategy, learn and move on for the game of manipulation will continue on, with to without you. Nobody ever said it was going to be easy taking food off a shark's mouth

Good luck everyone

NkN1, ethically they should suspend the counter. Logically, why should they? Not when there are so many believers for me to sell my stock to.

Like I said, stocks are driven up to go down in that, contrary to what most people think, distribution happens the most aggressive on the way down, not up.

You can say on the benefit of hindsight, the chart was showing a serious reversal on volume after that parabolic uptrend move but most people chose to believe and rely on hope that something positive is upcoming. The downward price is merely a blip.

And don't rely on the authorities, by the time they start any investigation, the retail investor would have been screwed hard of their cash.

Wise up and move on

Since the onset of stock exchange, manipulation has existed. Driving stocks up to be sold down is the ultimate name of the game. I've been trading since I was 18years old, now 42, made lots in the run up to 97 crash and lost all and more, and continued to win and lose thru many crises. Now, I'm trading profitably for a living.

For me, I'm a student of the market. When you think you've seen it all, there will be new tactics and maneuvers to get at you. Because ultimately human nature never change. To me, this is very interesting. From accounting scandals ala transmile to Soh Chee wen-style manipulation , they are all worthy stories for the student .

I remembered years back, there was this Pohmay-Lippo-Sinmah saga where the story then was someone has created a new catalyst that will spur the production of latex in rubber trees manifold. The mere mention of this catalyst linking to any stock will send the stocks to lofty heights. Ultimately, the stocks crashed and nothing more is heard of this technology. And now, we have the Asiasons scandal in Singapore that is so elaborately planned.

I'm not saying Rex technology is a con job. Maybe it'll show its worth subsequently but until then, when everyone is speculating on hope and greed, stocks are being passed from stronger hands to weaker ones that when expectations are not met, they will be punished.

And I think it is very wrong to ask people to average down. Unless you are an insider or are an expert in the field, maybe like hhakim, you are more informed.. Otherwise, try to stay out or sell on the rebound after the last of T+4 meltdowns

Remember, in transmile case, although the stock limit down twice, it came back strongly because someone says there is still value in the franchise and the highly coveted US Sino routes. Look what happened eventually? All gone and the so called lucrative route is actually a loss making business.

So there, if one can withstand the onslaught on Thursday. Hold it out for a week or two for there will be a rebound and a strong one but it's merely a dead cat bounce to catch the staunch hopefuls and final believers. It will come back one more time. That is the game of manipulation

Maybe one day they will strike oil. Until then, let the dust settle and let the chart repair itself

If one has not read 'reminiscences of a stock operator', don't touch the markets.

Everyone thought Robert kuok is too savvy to be fooled too until gan of transmile proved he was the bigger con man.

Quek leng chan is a huge gambler who raised high stakes with his speculative ventures. Even if hibiscus tanks, it's probably equivalent to one night less at the gambling tables.

Just like a tech venture fund who will make probably 6-7 failed investments before they hit a Facebook or Twitter, hibiscus may also score a winner eventually but can the regular Joe investors stand to be hit 7-8 times before they hit paydirt?

Hibiscus biz model is somewhat similar to the SIngapore's Asiasons-Blumont-Liongold. All are venture capitalists with huge risk appetite. When their share price is driven by hope and greed, the fallout will be compounded when those huge expectations are not even remotely met.

They may strike it rich one day but chances if bust will always skew nearer instead

I think those not in should watch from the sidelines until the dust settles.

I remembered years ago, when the transmile saga broke, there were many believers that could not happen to a Robert kuok company. Even when it became apparent, there were still believers who bought into what analysts wrote that there is still good franchise value in its brand and special routes between US and China.

Look what happened?

No point being a hero. Even if you get it on the very cheap on Thursday, your nerves will not be able to withstand the torture of violent shakeouts the insider syndicates will subject the price into.

Best case, you may get out with a minute profit on the next shakeout or worse, you will bleed badly when the selling wave overwhelms again. You won't have the nerve to hold it for the next drilling result

I like it when they spun it nicely with the term 'non commercial hydrocarbons' as a discovery.

There's a proper word for it for people like you and me, it's called 'sludge'

Worst scenario, limit down as a knee jerk reaction to the news as well as some heavy pent up selling from the 2 days suspension. Worth a quick punt if that happens but it's not a game for the faint hearted

No matter how positively they try to spin the truth by proudly proclaiming success with their methods and starting of a new well, it doesn't depart from the fact that the they have failed to make a positive strike inspite of all the so called cutting edge technologies that Rex was supposed to have provided.

Brace a bloodbath on opening.

And judging from the share price, some heavy selling by someone iin the know from the date of the drilling result and all the way prior to suspension.

Bursa must investigate this immediately.