http://www.ceec.net.cn/art/2020/2/20/art_11019_2069769.html

阻击疫情工作期间，投资公司全力以赴，多措并举，建立健全应急管理及备值备班机制，督促指导委托运营单位，积极做好现场消毒防护及人员健康保障，科学安排保供电工作，该公司12个已投产风电、光伏电（场）站项目均实现正常稳定发电运行，为各地抗击疫情、生产生活及复产复工提供电力保障。截至2月16日，所属电（场）站已累计发电1.42亿千瓦时，平稳完成时序计划。
　　在确保安全的前提下，投资公司有序推进各在建项目安全施工、复产复工，为完成年度生产经营目标奠定基础。投资公司投资的越南海阳2×60万千瓦燃煤发电项目于1月28日完成1号机组吹管，与此同时，项目公司主动与越南当地政府对接，及时保障现场防疫物品发放，通过现场全区域定时消毒、严控人员流动等方式，积极主动开展疫情防控工作，得到了当地政府的肯定；在新疆哈密光热项目，投资公司积极协同中国能建所属相关参建单位，严格做好现场防疫，项目施工建设等各项工作安全有序进行；其他在建及新建的一批风电、光伏、生物质项目正按照当地政府的要求，科学研究复工及开工方案，细化制定现场疫情防控措施，强化疫情防控物质保障，积极开展复工筹备工作。目前山西平定风电项目已局部复工，其余项目预计将于2月底至3月初复工及开工。

其余项目预计将于2月底至3月初复工及开工。

leafwinner, you are welcome. Judging from the earlier news about the china embassy assisting in getting chinese engineers back to work after chinese new year, the resumption of construction work already began in late February. Hence, about one month of delay.

Now the COD is expected to be July 2020

http://www.ceec.net.cn/art/2020/3/18/art_11016_2085381.html

投资公司全力以赴，多措并举，建立健全应急管理及备值备班机制，积极做好现场消毒防护及人员健康保障，科学安排保供电工作。截至目前，该公司12个已投产风电、光伏电（场）站项目，春节至今均实现正常稳定发电运行，为各地抗击疫情、生产生活及复产复工提供电力保障。8个在建项目，越南海阳燃煤电厂项目、山西平定风电项目、湖南蓝山紫良风电项目、湖南醴陵贺家桥风电项目、河南汝阳风电项目、锡盟阿旗风电项目、广东南雄犁牛坪三期风电项目及浙江永嘉光伏发电项目，均全面复工，复工率达100%。

Construction work on Hai Duong Power Plant already 100% restored !!

http://www.apcc2.ceec.net.cn/art/2020/3/18/art_8427_2085281.html

3月17日13时38分，越南海阳2×600MW燃煤电厂工程管带式输送机F1桁架安全吊装就位，标志着越南海阳电厂管带式输送机安装拉开序幕。
越南海阳电厂管带输送机自厂内灰库到厂外灰场卸料转运站，管径400mm，皮带带宽B=1600mm，长度L=2050m，高度H=32m，共110跨桁架。此次安装的F1桁架为整个管带机桁架的第一跨，全长21.065m,总重量8.8吨。吊装过程中，机械、起重、安装人员配合默契，桁架平稳吊装就位。
　　管带机F1桁架的成功就位，为后续管带机安装打下了坚实基础。

The construction work at the power plant is progressing .....

BlessedInvestor, from the news above, I believe there were some delay. The COD maybe delayed to Q3 2020

越南海阳2×60万千瓦燃煤电厂工程总承包项目部坚决贯彻落实中国驻越南大使馆、越南当地政府、项目业主、公司关于疫情防控有关要求，多次召开专题会，研究部署疫情防控工作，压实责任抓落实，确保疫情防控万无一失。项目部购置并储备了满足项目部职工需求的相关防疫物资，同时督促各施工单位备齐防疫物资；严格落实越南当地政府关于疫情防控要求，全力支持配合越南当地政府做好防疫工作；制定疫情防控实施方案和应急预案；认真落实人员进出登记、体温监测、区域消毒等防疫措施；加强对留守项目现场职工和越南属地职工的心理梳导，强化人文关怀，确保项目部高效有序运转、职工队伍安全稳定。
　　在项目推进方面，随着新冠病毒疫情的蔓延，2月1日开始越南陆续关闭了与中国的航班往来和陆上贸易口岸，并限制中国公民入境及颁发签证。该项目部结合工作实际，提前制订人员安全返程方案，并将急需返回越南的中国技术人员和技术工人名单通过项目业主报送越南政府有关部门和中国驻越南大使馆，申请返越绿色通道；制定应急预案，并联合各（承）分包单位开展应急演练；与中国驻越大使馆，越南当地政府、医疗机构及防疫中心建立了联防联建机制。与此同时，项目部在做好疫情防控的前提下，充分利用越南属地施工队伍，组织属地施工人员约600余名，对工程进行必要的消缺工作和部分辅助工作，为后期迅速进入主体施工做好准备。

http://www.swepdi.ceec.net.cn/art/2020/3/16/art_17695_2083449.html

some modifications ...

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-03-18-story-h1484863876-Jaks_Resources_What_makes_up_the_Earnings_of_JHDP.jsp

Aseng, 65 cents is lower than my average costs. I will be jealous of you.

I have written more than 30 articles on Jaks. If you are even interested .....

https://klse.i3investor.com/jsp/blog/blallpost.jsp?blid=5415

It is a good time to spend sometime doing research on Jaks while many are in fear

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-03-18-story-h1484863876-Jaks_Resources_What_makes_up_the_Earnings_of_JHDP.jsp

Elbrutus, Thanks for your like. I hope I explained well.

Jaks Resources - What makes up the Earnings of JHDP ?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-03-18-story-h1484863876-Jaks_Resources_What_makes_up_the_Earnings_of_JHDP.jsp

liewtz06, i share your concern. However, you must understand that Jaks in many ways are not perfect, it is just a very small company that managed to pull through a 1200MW power plant in Vietnam. I have shown in many ways that the power plant is very lucrative. Jaks' pacific star project has been substantially completed. I believe cash flow problem will not be material.

------------------
liewtz06 Hi DK66, I'm with the same view as you regarding power generating business and really appreciate your insights of Jaks. The only thing that worries me is the cash flow that Jaks currently has, is it enough to sail through this huge wave? Is the delaying of COD going to affect Jaks current cash flow given the LAD till June and potential loss of tenant occupancy in Evolve mall due to COVID 19. If Jaks has enough cash flow to cover the above, personally I think there's nothing to worry about recent turmoil.
16/03/2020 9:47 PM

Davidleong, I m not capable of assessing the impact of Covid19 on the economy. However, I always believe that power generation is one of the safest businesses. In worst case, the COD is delayed for a few month. How bad can that be ? You can now buy at 50% discount to compensate for the delay.

----------------------
Davidleong DK66 how do you view this covid to affect Jaks in worst situation
16/03/2020 6:45 PM

Please tell us the badside
-------------------
Wing23 U only know talk for the goodside, dont lead other go holland
16/03/2020 9:08 AM

Trump tests negative for coronavirus - White House doctor

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51893445

Reducing interest rate is a kind of monetary expansion or easing in nature. Aims to provide cheaper credit to help companies getting through tough times.

pjseow, I m sorry for causing the confusion earlier. This is because I wasn't able to quantify the potential profit from the Energy Payment until I found relevant facts and figures recently.

Effectively, JHDP makes 3 types of earnings from the BOT contract

1. Construction profit from building the power plant
2. Interest income from lending money to build the power plant
3. Operating profit from selling electricity to EVN

All these earnings are collected through the capacity and energy payments over the 25 years BOT period.

----------------
pjseow Huahtai98, The price crash has more to do with worldwide meltdown than those who bad mouth jaks DK 66 latest article help me and hopefully the rest understand the PPA better and the power plant business. All the while, I thought the JV needs to come up with the US 1.868 billion capital and after 25 yrs, the vietnamese government got the power plant for free. The vietnamese government actually pay back not only the whole US 1.868.billion by instalment for 25 years but also pay interest income for the whole.construction cost borne by the jv. This capacity payment is on top of energy payment which depends on. how much electricity the plant sell.I hope I get it right.. In a way, the jv not only do the business of selling electricity but also act as a bank financing.the whole project and make some money through.interest income
14/03/2020 10:20 PM

This formula for computation of EP satisfies both the Vietnam Government and BOT operator.

The BOT operator is encouraged to operate the power plant at maximum efficiency to maximise their profit

The Vietnam government is assured of maximum plant efficiency to minimise pollution

The Vietnam government is assured of no exploitation of natural resources due to low efficiency in power generation by the BOT operators

I have refined the article to make it more comprehensible.

It is a fair statement from i3lurker. In fact, this is taken care of by the agreed heating value. I mentioned above that composition of the heating value is unknown. The agreed heating value is higher than the actual cost per Btu of coal. This is done through higher allocation ratio of heating value to cost per Btu of HFO. HFO is costlier than coal. This is to ensure sufficient profit to IPP operators if they are asked to operate at lower load factor.

In fact, the BOT is better than an "unlicensed bank" as, upon COD, the BOT does not need to worry about "loan default" by "borrower".The default risk is borne by the original bankers. This is because the loan from bankers to the BOT is on non-recourse basis.

-----------------------------
BOT is an "unlicensed bank" lending out billions (principal guaranteed repayment) plus interest income (also guaranteed repayment)

From the comments so far by i3lurker, I must say he understands the business of power plants under BOT in Vietnam well.

Those who has read this article and agree with the computation, please press "like" so that I know how many actually agree with me.

pjseow, your understanding is precise

---------------
pjseow Huahtai98, The price crash has more to do with worldwide meltdown than those who bad mouth jaks DK 66 latest article help me and hopefully the rest understand the PPA better and the power plant business. All the while, I thought the JV needs to come up with the US 1.868 billion capital and after 25 yrs, the vietnamese government got the power plant for free. The vietnamese government actually pay back not only the whole US 1.868.billion by instalment for 25 years but also pay interest income for the whole.construction cost borne by the jv. This capacity payment is on top of energy payment which depends on. how much electricity the plant sell.I hope I get it right.. In a way, the jv not only do the business of selling electricity but also act as a bank financing.the whole project and make some money through.interest income
14/03/2020 10:20 PM

I agree, 7238 utilization hours should be a closer production figure.

However, we do not know the actual utilization hours of Mong Duong II to generate USD343m revenue in 2019.

So, for the purpose of this article, utilization hours cannot play its role in the profit estimation for JHDP.

-------------
OTB Posted by probability > Mar 14, 2020 11:08 AM | Report Abuse

@DK66, actually you can also derive the exact numbers above using the project IRR of 12% guided by the management.

---------------
I think Hai Duong power plant is higher spec than Vinh Tan 1, hence we should use 7,238 utilization hours instead of 6,500 hours to calculate.
Thank you.
14/03/2020 11:11 AM

I3lurker, I extracted from the article below;

Jaks Resources – Peer Comparison With Mong Duong II
Author: DK66 | Publish date: Mon, 29 Apr 2019, 8:49 PM



Effective from 1st January 2018, a new accounting standard was adopted,

“A loan receivable was recognized for the future expected payments for the construction performance obligation. As the payments for the construction performance obligation occur over a 25-year term, a significant financing element was determined to exist which is accounted for under the effective interest rate method. As payments are collected from the customer over the term of the contract, consideration related to the construction performance obligation is bifurcated between the principal repayment of the long-term receivable and the related interest income. The other performance obligation to operate and maintain the facility is measured based on the capacity made available. “

Without using complicated accounting terminology, I simplified the accounting treatment of Tariff payments (TP) received as follows;

The balance of construction costs is placed under a receivable asset as “Loan receivable”(LR) and is gradually collected over the 25 years period through Tariff payments.
The company has determined that a portion of the tariff payments is in effect considered “interest income”(INT) at an effective interest rate based on the credit standing of the customer.
Balance tariff payments is recognized as “Revenue”(REV).
Therefore,

TP = LR + INT + REV

Earnings = REV + INT - Interest Expense - Fuel Costs - O&M costs

To put it simply, depreciation charges has been replaced by loan receivable (LR). Therefore, the capacity payment received would have to deduct the LR (also known as principal repayment) and the interest expense to determine the profit.

----------------------------------------------------
i3lurker DK66

Hire Purchase principal repayments are cash but not income,
cannot be counted as earnings per share, goes to balance sheet

Hire purchase interest repayments are cash and income,
can be counted as earnings per share. "EPS"

I guess above part is easy to understand

============================


in BOT scenarios,
the utility is the "hirer/renter" and the IPP being Jaks is the "bank"

so principal cash from the renter/hirer/"EVN" to bank/Jaks for principal repayment is not income or earnings

similarly principal cash received by plant and forwarded to the "ultimate bank being Jaks" is repayment on principal,
it knocks off the "25 year hire purchase" loan given by Jaks/Bank to plant/EVN

hope this is satisfactory to your goodself.
14/03/2020 8:22 AM

probability, Thanks for the info. I will look into it

--------------
probability @DK66, actually you can also derive the exact numbers above using the project IRR of 12% guided by the management.

Perhaps on your next article you can do just that. Ensure that the first recurring cash in flow (25 years) happens approximately on the 4th or 5th year from the project initial out flow of cash being year zero.

Refer 'Economic-cost benefit analysis' on Page 63-64 below for Mong Duong 1 as a guide how the cash out flow & in flow takes place in sequence through the years - of the thermal power plant's economic life.

"Viet Nam: Mong Duong 1 Thermal Power Project"

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/project-documents/39595/39595-...

The cash outflow of US$ 1.87 Billion during EPCC phase (first 4-5 years) before COD can be proportional split as per the table shown on above pages.

Kohc18, I used the targeted efficiency (agreed heat rate) of Mong Duong II as benchmark.

---------
Kohcl8 I don’t think the computation here is correct as the PPA would have the targeted efficiency for the IPP to achieve. The off taker would most likely allow a 4% point differential over the 25 years. So the 24.4% savings does not work unless the PPA is different as I doubt so.

johnmasino & edkfc, You are welcome
------------
johnmasino Great article bro! Keep up the good work!
14/03/2020 6:56 AM

edkfc DK 66.....Thanks again DK, you have nailed it , again and again. We now have 2 solid actually running coal power station right in Vietnam (one built by CPECC group, imagine that ) to derive all important data..efficiency, earning. Its more than good enough. TQ again.
14/03/2020 2:17 PM

Sarifah, I did not attend Jaks briefing

----------------
SarifahSelinder DK66

Any refinements on ur past articles or firming up of ur profit projections after d JAKS briefing??

Ada ka d briefing increase ur confidence on ur profit projections???
14/03/2020 8:44 AM

Thank you all for your kind words
-------------------------------
johnmasino Many thanks to DK66 and OTB for their comprehensive FAs and TAs! I need to praise DK66 for his diligent effort in giving great write ups about JAKS which are among the most thorough I've ever seen. There is no doubt in my mind that DK66 is the man in this forum! Because I'm keeping JAKS till it hits my TP of RM5.00 or higher! Thanks DK66!
14/03/2020 6:33 AM

pjseow DK66, thanks for sharing your excellent article on Effects of plant Efficiency on profits. You are the best in PPA and power plant business. My salute to you. I suggest serious Jaks investors must read this article to have a better understanding.of future potential profits of Hai Duong power plant
14/03/2020 8:05 AM

human DK66 thanks for another good write.
14/03/2020 8:31 AM

paktua73 DK66 you're real warriors here..you stand tall
when many been beating by emotions..
their give up so early..
you still strong stand believe jaks will rise..
paktua salute you..
all afford you bring..
all fact n figure you distributed..
DK66..
this song is for you..

https://youtu.be/FiL3518nxks

deserve great honor by you loyalty on jakskingdom....

tut tut
love stand together with Great's warriors..
who never defeated by emotions..
the greatest enemy's inside..
14/03/2020 8:48 AM

enigmatic, Malaysia's GDP growth depends largely on export. Ringgit needs to remain competitive. Chances are we are going to weak ringgit going forward. in any case, ringgit exchange rate is not a major issue to JHDP.

----------------
enigmatic ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I have no idea whatsoever on JAKS, but calculation wise, don't you think 4.2 USD/RM may be a bit too optimistic? RM may bounce back anytime.
14/03/2020 4:46 PM

Probability, Thanks for your further explanation. It make my point clearer.

Pjseow, Thanks for explaining on my behalf. Save me the trouble.

-------------------
pjseow i3lurker, you should read both articles in order to understand how DK arrived at the earnings of capacity payment for Duong Mong II. The other report is titled Peer Comparison.with Duong Mong ii.
Based on DK formula
Earning = Capacity payment.- loan receivable repayment - interest expense

I did not see DK consider the principal loan repayment as
earning.
On the contrary, he rightly minus the loan repayment in the above formula because the capacity payment.of US 253 million.paid by Vietname government already included loan repayment or principal repayment.
14/03/2020 12:41 PM

I won't be free until tonight. Shall explain later. Thanks

Dannie, Thanks for your 1st like

Jaks Resources - Effect of Plant Efficiency On Profit

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-03-14-story-h1484838111-Jaks_Resources_Effect_of_Plant_Efficiency.jsp

Aseng, Thank you for your kind words

---------------------
Aseng OTB sifu and dk66 sifu
You are good man, very kind, willing to share with us the the best of your knowledge. You deserve our respect and praise. Some chicken heart sifu can not do good works as much as you, they are jealous, you have proven and they saw you are very much better than then as an investor, an analyst and a true person. Never mind, no good man is not condemned or attacked by the evil or the chicken heart sifu. Ignore and forgive them, not even Jessus Christ or Buddha has no exception.
13/03/2020 9:50 AM

Dear all,

Jaks' price may fall but it won't stop the power plant from commissioning,

Covid19 may slow down economic but it won't stop people from using electricity,

Even if you take the RM100m PAT (EPS RM0.153) conservative guidance from the CEO Andy Ang, it is still worth RM2.30 at 15x PE. it is definitely worth more than the current market price.

Markets are cruel but human can be kind. Please do not attack when people are suffering. It is fine if you wish to buy cheap but please do not be a fearmonger. To gain at someone's expense is not respectful.

If you do good deeds, good deeds will come to you. Just like me, after I started sharing information here, people start sharing their useful information to me.

Please care for others.

Thank you.

I m very disappointed. Here should not be a battlefield. It should be a place for sharing and caring.

I was told it will take more than a week
--------------------
Investing_Bursa DK66, has your margin account been approved? Now would be a good time to use it to add more position....ya?
12/03/2020 2:56 PM

And yes, Jaks will go back to its fundamental

Please show me the fundamental of jaks

-------------------
HuatRex Dk66, this is not panic selling. Everytime will back to its fundamental regardless how hard you promote it
12/03/2020 2:53 PM

This is not the first time I m seeing this kind of panic selling
------------------
investor1458 Dear DK66, do you still have faith in Jak in view of large volumes of sellers
12/03/2020 2:28 PM

Dear OTB,

Please stay strong. Covid19 will go away eventually.

if one already own shares before he acquired the inside information but did not act on the information, he will not be charged.

if the information is released here, it is no longer insider information.

insider trading is only applicable if someone benefited from insider information before the information is released publicly.