qqq3, since you are so free, are you going to spend the rest of your life attacking OTB ?

Can you write and email directly to OTB and spare us some peace here ? TQ

--------------------------
qqq33333333 me? I have not worked for more than 20 years..........that is true............no part time work, no chowkit road, no nothing.............just don't feel like it................

but every thing else that OTB writes are made up stories.....................
02/04/2020 9:43 PM

I m very happy today :D
----------------------
johnmasino DK66:- Hope ur investment in JAKS is now making a lot of money bro. Cheers!
02/04/2020 6:58 PM

Aseng, Your suggestion of "buy lower and sell higher than hng33" will in some ways minimize hng33's "follow me" strategy which gives him the front running advantage over his followers. However, best not to promote this kind of schemes.

-------------------------------
Aseng hng33 definitely can not command the price movement

but his make quick money scheme will definitely shaken some steady hearts here

I can't stop them, I can suggest a safer way if they want to follow

You maybe right

-------------------
huahtai98 @DK66....i think the main reason Andy did not meet OTB is that he feels it is not right to do so in an inappropriate setting where info only goes to a few people.
Moreover, being a substantial shareholder, he may be accused of giving biased info.
Again, the meeting is considered unofficial and could be an offence for Andy under the Company's Act.
02/04/2020 11:04 AM

Aseng, why follow hng33 ? You believe hng33 can command the price movement ?

Aseng, I think it is not right to conclude that Andy refused to see OTB. We must allow for other possibilities. Andy could be busy with JHDP after the CFO resigned.
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Aseng Do not forget we are still the outsider guessing the insider works. Nothing is certain. Right from the moment Andy refused to see otb . This is a good signal we should not be over confident.
Do not be too anxious to gain, there is still about a year to confirm our calculation is right or wrong
02/04/2020 8:36 AM

Aseng, thanks for the heads up. I must admit buying with margin finance is not to be encouraged. Please do not follow my lead. My plan for margin finance is less than 10%.

I m here to share information and analysis only. You should invest using your own method. Each of us has different risk tolerance.

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Aseng No harm to buy some and keep for a year or 2 with your own money since the calculation said it is a good buy. But borrow money to buy more is a bit greedy and over confident is not encouraged. This part DK66 showing a bad example
02/04/2020 8:25 AM

Hng33, are you staying away from Jaks for 2 weeks ?

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hng33 Money cannot buy life....even billion.....what more for rich US people care for other than life! If US toll death is estimate at least 100k by their own President Trump, it mean something terrible thing threaten life is real happening, it can be anyone surrounding. 'I want every American to be prepared for the hard days that lie ahead. We're going to go through a very tough two week' Such atmosphere is so uncertainty......
01/04/2020 3:57 PM

Worst of covid19 will be over in 2 weeks. Those who haven't bought yet need to rush and work harder.

3月20日，越南海阳项目石灰石破碎楼破碎机吊装成功，标志着向石灰石系统正式投用又迈出了坚实的一步。
　　破碎机安装位置位于石灰石破碎楼24米，整机净重11.7吨，吊车可站位位置距离8米，由于设备到货较迟，石灰石结构设计原因，石灰石破碎楼24米层西侧墙体可预留位置较小。
　　为保证两台石灰石破碎楼破碎机顺利吊装，项目部及各专业科人员认真研究、讨论吊装方案，计算负荷，对参与吊装作业的施工人员进行充分的安全技术交底，对作业过程中存在的危险源进行有效辩识，制定相应的防范措施。整个吊装过程中，相关管理技术人员全程旁站监督，作业人员操作规范，指挥人员指挥到位，吊装工作顺利完成。
　　当前，受新冠肺炎疫情影响，越南政府关闭入境通道，导致海阳项目节后复工人员无法到位，但是项目部科学组织，合理调度现有人力资源，确保现场生产工作继续向着目标前进。此次吊装工作的顺利完成，也鼓舞了士气，项目全体坚信海阳项目有能力、有毅力按照计划施工，朝着1号机组投产运行的大目标继续前进。

0.43
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johnmasino DK66: Just curious, what was the lowest price you bought into JAKS?

Many here are advisors telling readers who and what to believe. Only a very few are sharing real and useful information for the readers to make their own decisions.

How can we take advice from strangers in I3 ?

I3 is only a place good to gain information and analysis not sweeping statements. You must verify the information before relying on them.

I m not here to advise you on your decision. I m only sharing information and my analysis. You should not rely on them if you are unable to perform due diligence.

Thank you.

Hng33,

However, it is also my opinion that a low coal price will not have much effect on coal power plants' utilization rate currently as Vietnam is expecting severe shortage of electricity beginning 2021. Power plants of all types are expected to be deployed at full capacity.

In 2019, mong duong II reported a 40% increase in revenue despite the sharp fall in coal prices. This indicates that there was sharp increase in electricity output. This signifies that electricity demand is growing rapidly in vietnam.

Thank you

hng33,

Coal price has no or minimal impact on the earnings of JHDP as it is pass through in the PPA.

What you are referring to is called merit order dispatch where the lowest cost IPP producer is prioritized. This is a norm in most countries globally and Vietnam is no exception. That is why Mong Duong II power plant was shut down for 5 months in 2017 due to excessive rainfalls when hydro power plants are generating electricity at full capacity.

Yes, I agree that low coal price does make coal powered electricity more appealing as source of electricity supply.

-----------------------------
hng33 Dear DK66

May I know whether or not if there is any impact on coal price on Jaks power plant? The coal price is now in half price compared a year ago, US34/tonne. I know Jaks IPP is just responsible to generate power, while EVN is responsible to supply power to household, business etc to collect elecfirticty charge. However, as the source of power come from many alternative such as hydro, solar, gas etc, is there an option available for EVN to increase supply from coal power fire against other source, demanding cheaper coal fire power can increase utilization rate of coal power plant capacity usage, which in turn can increase Jaks power profit right?
31/03/2020 9:19 PM

YES

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Johnmasino DK66:- So have you bought more JAKS shares already? Heard you were going to use a margin account to do so. Cheers!
31/03/2020 6:37 PM

stockwin, you are welcome.

I do not agree that if one were to buy at current price of say 76 sen and keep for a year, one can rest assure of 100% return. Should be less than half a year unless Covid19 takes much long than expected to subside.

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stockwin TQ DK66, for constantly around to reassure followers of this forum here of the project.
Do you agree that in the worst case scenario, if one were to buy at current price of say 76 sen,and keep for a year, one can rest assure of 100% return?
31/03/2020 6:36 PM

I repost my past comments

Yes, it seems like around 1 to 2 months delay


Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

Mar 18, 2020 8:22 PM | Report Abuse

http://www.ceec.net.cn/art/2020/3/18/art_11016_2085381.html

投资公司全力以赴，多措并举，建立健全应急管理及备值备班机制，积极做好现场消毒防护及人员健康保障，科学安排保供电工作。截至目前，该公司12个已投产风电、光伏电（场）站项目，春节至今均实现正常稳定发电运行，为各地抗击疫情、生产生活及复产复工提供电力保障。8个在建项目，越南海阳燃煤电厂项目、山西平定风电项目、湖南蓝山紫良风电项目、湖南醴陵贺家桥风电项目、河南汝阳风电项目、锡盟阿旗风电项目、广东南雄犁牛坪三期风电项目及浙江永嘉光伏发电项目，均全面复工，复工率达100%。

Construction work on Hai Duong Power Plant already 100% restored !!



Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

Mar 18, 2020 9:10 PM | Report Abuse

http://www.ceec.net.cn/art/2020/2/20/art_11019_2069769.html

阻击疫情工作期间，投资公司全力以赴，多措并举，建立健全应急管理及备值备班机制，督促指导委托运营单位，积极做好现场消毒防护及人员健康保障，科学安排保供电工作，该公司12个已投产风电、光伏电（场）站项目均实现正常稳定发电运行，为各地抗击疫情、生产生活及复产复工提供电力保障。截至2月16日，所属电（场）站已累计发电1.42亿千瓦时，平稳完成时序计划。
　　在确保安全的前提下，投资公司有序推进各在建项目安全施工、复产复工，为完成年度生产经营目标奠定基础。投资公司投资的越南海阳2×60万千瓦燃煤发电项目于1月28日完成1号机组吹管，与此同时，项目公司主动与越南当地政府对接，及时保障现场防疫物品发放，通过现场全区域定时消毒、严控人员流动等方式，积极主动开展疫情防控工作，得到了当地政府的肯定；在新疆哈密光热项目，投资公司积极协同中国能建所属相关参建单位，严格做好现场防疫，项目施工建设等各项工作安全有序进行；其他在建及新建的一批风电、光伏、生物质项目正按照当地政府的要求，科学研究复工及开工方案，细化制定现场疫情防控措施，强化疫情防控物质保障，积极开展复工筹备工作。目前山西平定风电项目已局部复工，其余项目预计将于2月底至3月初复工及开工。

其余项目预计将于2月底至3月初复工及开工。

Johnmasino, Thank you for your compliment. I m nothing more than a very hard working guy with accounting knowledge, not an accounting genius.

I m glad to hear that you have gained on this rare opportunity.

JHDP is currently in final stages of testing. It will be completed despite some delays due to COvid19.

-----------------------
johnmasino I'm now seating on a paper profit of RM18K already but I've no intention to sell until JAKS hits RM5 and above! Wishing all long term stakeholders the best of luck.

Special thanks to DK66 for his enlightening and reassuring articles on JAKS. Truly an accounting genious. Cheers bro!
31/03/2020 5:41 PM

The BOT is 25 years and the loan is 18 years

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johnswj90 DK66, Noted and thanks for the confirmation. I agree with you that the IRR mentioned by Andy refers to Project IRR, which translates to around 23.4% of Equity IRR for the case of Debt:Equity ratio of 75:25 for a tenure of 18 years with 6% interest rate.

I extracted the following from my past article

Understanding Jaks Hai Duong thermal power plant in Vietnam
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2019-01-13-story189891-Understanding_Jaks_Hai_Duong_thermal_power_plant_in_Vietnam.jsp

Power purchase agreement (PPA)

EVN shall purchase dependable capacity and the net energy output from JHDP.
JHDP shall finance, design, build, operate and maintain the power plant.
PPA shall have a duration of 25 years from the COD.
No sales to third parties other than EVN.
Non-recourse obligation precludes EVN from further right or claim against or recourse to the investors other than the assets of the BOT company
Liquidated damages payable by BOT company for outages beyond allowable limit at 105% of capacity payment
Liquidated damages payable by BOT company for Output at delivery point either less than 97% or more than 103% of output required under dispatch instruction at 5% of capacity payment
JAKS’ POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENT WITH VIETNAM ELECTRICITY (“EVN”) (“PPA”) - The PPA provides for EVN to purchase and the BOT Company to sell electricity generating capacity and electricity generated by the Facility for 25 years after the commercial operation date of the Facility unless extended or earlier terminated as stipulated under the PPA. The tariff charged by JAKS Hai Duong to EVN comprises the capacity charge, energy charge and supplemental charge. Fuel (coal and secondary fuel) and limestone costs will be passed-through costs under the PPA.
The Capacity Charge is a fixed payment that is paid each period for each kilowatt of available (not dispatched) capacity. It includes fixed charges involved in the construction, operation, and maintenance of the power plant, including charges for: – Repayment of the principal and interest of the debt used to construct the facility – Return on equity capital invested – Fixed operation and maintenance (O&M) costs that are independent of the amount of energy generated (e.g., staffing costs, administrative expenses, operator fee, insurance premiums, etc.) – Possible fixed costs related to fuel supply and transportation, such as demand or through-put charges, or minimum take-or-pay obligations.

The Energy Charge is paid each period for each kilowatt hour of energy dispatched and delivered at the agreed delivery point during that period. It includes variable costs involved in the generation of the energy delivered, including charges for: – Commodity charges for each unit of fuel used, including the cost of fuel and its transportation to the plant – Variable operation and maintenance costs (e.g., spare parts, lubricants, and other consumables) – A major maintenance sinking fund to cover the costs of required turbine maintenance based on usage.

The Supplemental Charge covers other costs not included in either the Capacity or Energy Charges, including:

– The costs of start-ups beyond an agreed number each year reflecting the cost of fuel per start-up and likely a contribution to the major maintenance sinking fund

– The costs of ancillary services provided if such services are included in the scope of the PPA

– Any supplemental charges for repairing damage to the facility as a result of a Force Majeure event if such repair is the responsibility of buyer.

Coal supply agreement (CSA)

Vinacomin shall supply anthracite coal for the full term of the BOT contract.
Failure of supply gives JHDP the right to source for alternative coal from domestic or foreign sources and seek compensation from Vinacomin for additional costs.
JAKS’ COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH VIETNAM NATIONAL COAL-MINERAL INDUSTRIES GROUP (“VINACOMIN”) (“CSA”) - The CSA provides for the delivery by Vinacomin and purchase by JAKS Hai Duong of coal for use in the Project from testing and commissioning until the termination of the BOT Contract or other circumstances as stipulated under the CSA. The quantities of coal to be supplied by Vinacomin will be determined, among other things, by the actual plant load factor and operating performance of the Facility and the quality and other characteristics of the coal used at the Facility. JAKS Hai Duong will have the right to buy from other coal sources in the event Vinacomin is unable to meet its obligations under the CSA and provided that the coal price from the other source have been agreed by both parties and approved by MOIT. There is no take or pay obligation (minimum order obligation) in the CSA.

Sarifah,

Yes, I m accumulating

----------------------------
SarifahSelinder DK6

Confirm ur conviction again

Hv u got ur SMF facility?

Hv u tambah lagi recently?
31/03/2020 8:18 AM

I do not need anyone to believe me. Readers can decide wisely what to believe.

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i3lurker this sounds like religion and you are a religous follower
others trade on facts

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DK66 Capacity payment is based on capacity made available regardless of whether there is electricity generated

Energy Payment is based on electricity generated. Coal cost is pass through.

Even if the power plant is shut down by EVN, it still has to pay the capacity payment.
31/03/2020 12:43 AM
31/03/2020 8:02 AM

Those interested in capacity and energy payments may visit my blog for better understanding.

Thanks for sharing the info, YONG

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YONG 复工进行时|越南海阳项目部保障工程建设进度有序推进
https://www.sohu.com/a/384292808_732362
30/03/2020 11:51 PM

Capacity payment is based on capacity made available regardless of whether there is electricity generated

Energy Payment is based on electricity generated. Coal cost is pass through.

Even if the power plant is shut down by EVN, it still has to pay the capacity payment.

It is a matter of Vietnam Government giving sufficient incentives and protections in order to bring in long term international investment. Vietnam is in desperate need to meet its growing electricity demand.

However, if the power plant is shut down, JHDP will not be able to profit from Energy payment

If for whatever reason Vinacomin cannot fulfill its obligations, JHDP will seek advice from MOIT to import coal. Whatever the decision maybe, so long as EVN continues to make capacity payment, it is EVN's decision whether the power plant is shut down or not.

The guarantee was not provided by Vinacomin but by the Vietnam Government itself. The government guarantees protect JHDP from counter-party risks such as Vinacomin.

A government cannot nullify its own guarantees unless you are referring to sovereign risks where a government fails to fulfill its obligations.

JHDP signed the BOT contract and the Government Guarantee with MOIT (Vietnam Ministry). It also signed the PPA (power purchase agreement) with EVN (Electricity Vietnam), and the CSA (Coal Supply Agreement) with Vinacomin (Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group).

The coal supply agreement assures adequate supply of coal to JHDP for 25 years failing which JHDP reserves the right to source alternative coal supply at costs to be borne by Vinacomin. This CSA is guaranteed by MOIT.

If there is short supply of coal and the government does not wish to import coal, then the vietnam government may shut down the power plant. However, the government must continue to pay the capacity payment. Otherwise, the IPP has the right to terminate the BOT and seek compensation from the government. Mong Duong II power plant in Vietnam was shut down for 5 months in 2017 due to excessive rainfalls but the power plant was still profitable due to the continue payment of capacity.

Johnswj90, Andy Ang did not specify whether the IRR is Project or Equity IRR. However, if you take reference to those Coal power plant projects in China, their equity IRRs are around 30%. Therefore, I presume the IRR mentioned by Andy refers to Project IRR. In any case, equity IRR of 12% is just too low in my opinion.

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johnswj90 Dear DK66, may I confirm with you whether the IRR mentioned is Project IRR or Equity IRR??
30/03/2020 10:17 PM

Davidleong, Covid19 is surely an unforeseen risk. It has caused some delays in the COD of the power plant by about 1 to 2 months. I believe the delay will not be material. In any case, I think the Vietnam government will make allowance for the delay as a result of lockdown.

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Davidleong DK66, if i read your analysis correctly.

the only risks for jaks are these 2 right
(The risks are project delays and unexpected project costs overrun. ) ,
since earning are guaranteed by PPA.

Any unforeseen risk you can think of right now?
30/03/2020 7:43 PM

Aseng, I certainly agree with you

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Aseng when you see people working hard hoping to collect low , then you know they believe jaks is a good buy at this price
30/03/2020 9:24 AM

Aseng when you see there isn't people bother to talk about it, then you know it is hopeless
30/03/2020 9:25 AM

Sarifah, Good morning.

Yes, I m accumulating

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SarifahSelinder DK66

Selamat pagi

Dah dpt u punya SMF facility?

Ada tambah lagi JAKS recently?
30/03/2020 8:15 AM

I will update readers here when new information is available

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stockwin Dear DK66, Any update on the power plant ? TQ.
27/03/2020 11:02 AM

Thanks for sharing your opinion

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Windy1974 Sapura won't bankrupt because government has invested too much in it. At 0.08, it's worth putting 5% of your money for potential 0.80 by 2026-27 due to potential in Sapura OMV. Sapura OMV will be groomed as upstream player of Malaysia. Sapura almost same value as Dayang is ridiculous

Yes, Windy1974, do not trust anyone in i3. Always read i3 comments with care. Use your own judgements.

--------------------------------------
In my life, I have learnt 1 important lesson. People who appear NICE not necessary good and people who appeared UNFRIENDLY not necessary BAD

Windy1974, about the cash flow of Sapura Energy, I must admit it will take a long while to understand all its finances. Even so, it won't be easy to arrive at any conclusion whether it can survive the current oil turmoil. At RM0.08, it is almost a write off case for most investors. I m sorry I won't be able to help.

Windy1974, I gain the understanding through lots of readings. I m afraid I can't pin point any source of information. However, logically, do you think the IPP would not have considered the USD/VND forex risk especially when it spans over 25 years ?

You are all welcome

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johnmasino DK66. Thanks for that information about JAKS earnings in USD.
24/03/2020 1:07 PM

JessicaTan tq
24/03/2020 1:54 PM

Aseng DK66
You are very kind. You never forget to provide us the most uptodate information and keep us well informed. I feel very safe putting my money here Thank you.
24/03/2020 1:55 PM

Windy1974, The PPA agreed a predetermined return on investment which was made in USD. Therefore, payments are based on USD investment which will not be affected by the depreciation of VND against USD. Only payments are made in VND (after translation using the spot USD/VND rate) for government accounting purposes. The VND payment received, after payment for expenses, will be converted to USD (conversion guaranteed by government) for outward remittance. In short, USD/VND rate has no bearing on investment returns of JHDP.

However, the USD received will amount to higher income in RM term if USD appreciated against RM during the BOT tenure.

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Windy1974 DK66. Noted with thanks. But shouldn't it be strong VND vs MYR? At the end, it's VND. No change if USD appreciation same rate vs VND and MYR

Windy1974, Jaks' PPA computes its capacity and Energy Charges in USD for its USD based investment or expenses and VND for its domestic based expenses. The tariffs will be translated to VND and paid in VND. The government then allow JHDP to immediately convert the VND into USD for outward remittance.

JHDP will distribute its profit in USD to Jaks which in turn will record the distribution in RM. Therefore, as far as Jaks is concerned, the forex risk lies in USD/RM, not USD/VND. USD/VND forex fluctuation is protected by the PPA.

In short, strong USD against RM is good for Jaks.

---------------
Windy1974 i found this analyst report online from Public Bank research. I reckon it's pretty comprehensive and means JAKS management has given what info they could to analyst. From this, i noted 1 significant difference from DK66. That's forex. I summarise below risks on JAKS.
1. If i recalled correctly, DK66 mentioned currency fluctuation is protected. From report, it shows that JAKS will receive payment in Vietnam Dong and face currency fluctuation risk.
2. Analyst can't estimate potential earning cos power purchase rate not revealed. It's trade secret. JAKS management given guidance of mid 10s. So, it's understandable that analyst would wanna see actual earnings before upgrading JAKS (or downgrade)
Apart from these 2 risks, i can't see any other risks involved. The report basically covered more comprehensively than any report i have seen so far in i3. Also, the COD stated in 2016 was mid 2020. Chinese is very good on schedule.

3月20日8时18分，越南海阳2×600MW燃煤电厂二号机组1号锅炉电除尘器出口烟道支架安装工程正式开始。
电除尘器出口烟道支架为钢构架结构，钢架主要由立柱、横梁、水平支撑、垂直支撑等部分构成，设计结构钢采用热轧H型钢和热轧T型钢，单根最重8t。
越南海阳项目部就安装作业中的细节、难点进行重点管控，对安装关键点的实时监控，保证电除尘器出口烟道支架安装顺利进行。

Those that can't read and write won't be here in i3. Don't try to fool others, you only end up fooling yourself.

------------------------------
huahtai98 Some people think they know best.
20/03/2020 12:48 PM

Jaks' bank loan for the power plant is on non-recourse basis. The banks cannot pursue against the borrowers, it can only rely on the power plant to get back their loan. It is to be paid using cash flow from the power plant. Repayment only begins upon plant COD.

US FEB near zero interest rate is good news for JHDP

Aseng, I wish you good luck, i will be jealous of you.

Johnmasino, you are welcome

Based on the construction progress of Vinh Tan 1, I had originally expected the COD for unit 1 to be May/June 2020. Now with the delay of about 1 to 2 months, the COD is now expected to be July 2020
-----------------------
gunter DK66 Now the COD is expected to be July 2020

Can you share the source for this info?

Thank you
18/03/2020 11:07 PM