I m getting more and more excited day by day. I been waiting for more than 2 years already !

Haha, remember to share your feelings !
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leapkcfy I like this sentance DK66!!! feel the earth move under your feet!!!! LOL

If you have bought you can feel it yourself, otherwise, demusangking can share his feeling with you.

Wait till the power plant is fired up in March 2020, you can feel the earth move under your feet.

qqq3, no idea again?

qqq3, do you think my forecast of 22m for q4 is too high ?

qqq3, what is your forecasted Q4 2019 results?

you are welcome

That is why Q4 2018 reported a big loss

Confirmation : The RM50m BG was written off in Q4 2018

Vin3133, TQ, I went a year ahead :D

correction :

Please note that Q4 2018 was affected by the RM50m BG write off.

I m confident that my projection of RM22m for Q4 2019 is conservative.

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VIN3133 DK66 , correction , it is Q4 2019 . TQ

If one cannot reason why Razali Merican sold, then you are still immature to invest in Bursa. No offend meant.

In any case, I m confident that my projection of RM22m for Q4 2020 is conservative. It only takes one more week to find out. No need to hide.

Anxiety and insecurity begin to develop among retailers as Q4 results draws closer, caused by fear of large LAD / write off and reduced EPC construction profit. Under such pressure, most will decide to take profit.

Please note that Q4 2019 was affected by the RM50m BG write off.

These retailers will buy back once results show surprising outcomes.

Then that was the 1st coal
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leapkcfy Dk66 admin said that video is 2019 dec, now is 2nd already
21/02/2020 9:06 AM

If that is a new video clip, Hai Duong is starting to fill up the second coal shed.

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CT https://www.facebook.com/108230520514069/posts/182693259734461/
21/02/2020 6:30 AM

Steady31, there is no easy answer to your question.

What I m confident is 100m is way too little. As you can see from my various computations. The low end is 160m and the average of the low ends is 206m.

Of course, one can argue the validity and accuracy of my computations. However, I have yet to see any credible argument against any of my 5 computations which are based on popular investment valuation methods like peer comparison, DCF, Payback period, and government data.

Just make any adjustment against the average valuation and decide whether the current market price is safe to enter.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-02-16-story-h1483823173-Jaks_Resources_A_More_Accurate_And_Reliable_Average_Valuation.jsp

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steady31 DK66,we all can agree the PER multiple for small or standalone power companies is in the range of 10-12 X.The biggest unknown here is how much is the earnings possibility fro Jaks Hai Duong plant.Is it 100M ,200M or 300M which will ultimately determine th share price trajectory of Jaks.If 100m Jaks will be expensive at 1.84 and this may explain why it is dithering around 150s.If it is 200M,Jaks has potential up to 3.60.So which is which DK66
20/02/2020 11:11 AM

But afraid of getting caught buying high..........

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Tiger66 Many still wait wait want to buy low
20/02/2020 10:47 AM

Please allow me to repost my articles here so that more are aware of the reason of the rally.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-01-31-story-h1482988876-Jaks_Resources_The_Final_Count_Down_Update.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-02-18-story-h1483853060-Jaks_Resources_The_Final_Count_Down_Turbine_is_Almost_Ready.jsp

PureBULL, you are welcome

If Kyy is correct, you lose 0.40

"Can I still buy at 1.50 ?" I asked my friend.

He replied;

"Buy at 1.50 and cut loss at 1.10 (important technical support), you lose 0.40

DK66 has derived an average valuation of 5.40 using 5 different methodologies.

If DK66 is wrong, you lose 0.40
If DK66 is 30% right, you break even.
If DK66 is 50% right, the price hits 2.70, you make 1.20. (IBs like to discount 50%)
If DK66 is 100% right, you make 3.90.

So, is it wise to risk 0.40 for a most likely 1.20 gain and a potential 3.90 gain ?

Use your wisdom."

"What if I can't afford to lose any money ?" I asked again.

He replied;

"Don't buy. Put your money in Fixed Deposit"

"Can I still buy at 1.50 ?" I asked my friend.

He replied;

Buy at 1.50 and cut loss at 1.10 (important technical support), you lose 0.40

DK66 has derived an average valuation of 5.40 using 5 different methodologies.

If DK66 is wrong, you lose 0.40
If DK66 is 30% right, you break even.
If DK66 is 50% right, the price hits 2.70, you make 1.20. (IBs like to discount 50%)
If DK66 is 100% right, you make 3.90.

So, is it wise to risk 0.40 for a most likely 1.20 gain and a potential 3.90 gain ?

Use your wisdom.

Focus on the power plant, the Q4 results is irrelevant. The results will only include EPC construction profit and losses from the property segment, and nothing from the sales of electricity.

The stock fell 78% from 1.84 to 0.405, but it has since recovered to 1.55 (adjusted historic high). Nothing has actually gotten better during this period of strong price recovery except the fact that it is getting closer to the power plant commercial operation date.

The only explanation I can offer is that the power plant is really worth a lot to Jaks. I used various valuation methodologies and arrived at an average valuation of RM5.40. RM1.55 is less than 30% of my valuation. Hence, the recent rush to buy up Jaks is best explained by the low market price and the close proximity to COD of the power plant.

I believe the reliability test will be carried out in May/June 2020

should be ok now

I think something wrong with the server. Will try again

Jilohhuat, You are welcome. I m glad that you liked this article.

Trapper and OTB, Thank you for your kind words. Really appreciate it.

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Trapper DK66, The amount of time spend writing and researching all the articles you have written is just unbelievable, you are such a generous and unselfish guy that share with everyone in I3 investor.
I really appreciate what you have done. All I can say is a big Thank you
18/02/2020 8:11 PM

OTB DK66 is the best FA sifu in Jaks forum.
A very honest and knowledgeable gentleman who is so generous to share his knowledge here.
I buy Jaks because of his write up.
Thank you.
18/02/2020 8:22 PM

newbie8080, you are welcome

deMusangking, You are welcome

ilovekl, thank you for telling. 6 months is still a bit short for a stock to realise its full potential.

Jaks Resources - The Final Count Down ! (Turbine is Almost Ready)

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-02-18-story-h1483853060-Jaks_Resources_The_Final_Count_down_Turbine_is_Almost_Ready.jsp

newbie8080,

Mong Duong II was not operating at optimal level since operation but have seen great improvement since 2018. However, Vinh Tan 1 which began full operation in Nov 2018 was running at very high availability (83%) since operation.

The article below may help to explain in detail the tariff structure of the PPA

Jaks Resources - The Matrix Behind The Vietnam PPA
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2019-04-15-story202341-Jaks_Resources_The_Matrix_Behind_The_Vietnam_PPA.jsp

newbie8080,

It is impossible to operate at 100% availability as you have to make time allowance for maintenance and downtime. The 12% IRR and 8 years payback period given by the management was based on 6500 annual utilization hours (74.2% availability). Vinh Tan 1 registered 7238 annual utilization hours in 2019.

The 2 tiered tariff payment is calculated on;
1. capacity payment - capacity made available regardless of utilization.
2. Energy payment - net output generated

Therefore, while capacity payment is pre-determined and paid with or without operation, energy payment is based on output. ie no output no payment.

ilovekl, just wondering what is your average stock holding period ? Hope you don't mind me asking.

For those who are worried about Jaks' Q4 results, it is very unlikely to record negative earnings. My RM22m estimated earnings is conservative.

stcokwin, ok, huattai98, You are all welcome

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stockwin Good Job DK66. your article of 16.2.2020 help investors to focus on the Valuation and TP.
17/02/2020 6:04 PM

ok A big thank you to DK66 for your investigation. Really looking forward to another stock that you will look so depth.
17/02/2020 6:05 PM

huahtai98 Bro DK66....thanks for your articles in perfect English.
Am proud of you.....Cheers!
17/02/2020 6:32 PM

Thank you :D
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VIN3133 Congrats , DK66 !!
Your article has hit top spot !!
17/02/2020 5:01 PM

wow !

Fair enough. Do whatever adjustment to suit your comfort. Please note that 8m warrant has been converted into mother shares by Razali. Total warrants outstanding is 94m.

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newbie8080 Based on 30% Ownership in JHDP. Value Per share are calculated based on 651m+102m(warrant)=753m shares and 15 times price earnings ratio (PE).
For a more conservative computation.
Just my 2 cents.
17/02/2020 12:14 PM

So far, icon8888 is the most respectable one

But I can't tolerate talking bad after selling

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Henry8833 Agreed with DK66. Hng33 kind enough to inform us his selling which is good.

It is a free forum, It is ok to do whatever you want and intend to do but please do so respectfully.

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winwinaaa hng33 .....whats your purpose of posting your trades ? I doubt anyone is interestred in that .
17/02/2020 11:15 AM

QR latest by next friday

:D

It is my valuation and call, but it is your money, your life, your decision to make.

Jaks Hai Duong Power Plant is too good to believe, too good to ignore, and too good to miss.