Dear OTB,

You are welcome.

May I ask what is the significant of adding to your Miss Universe stock portfolio ? Are you upgrading your TP ?

Thank you

--------------------------
OTB Dear DK66,
No worries, thank you for all your good information.
I had upgraded Jaks to my Miss Universe stock.
Thank you.
14/11/2019 9:51 AM

I apologize for wrong information given earlier.

Correct information should be : Vietnam BOT will be exempted from taxes for the first 4 years, 5% for the next 9 years and thereafter 10%.

---------------------------------
DK66>Dear OTB,

Under the investment certificate, Jaks is free from taxes for the first 4 years, 5% VAT for the next 5 years, thereafter 10%.

Meanwhile, if you have already bought Jaks, sit tight, relax and wait.

I m strongly confident that I will be able to substantiate my earnings estimates of between RM300m to RM500m to Jaks (40%) next year when both Mong Duong 2 and Vinh Tan 1 release their 2019 annual report in early 2020.

Vinh tan 1 will be another proof of lucrative Vietnam BOT when it releases its full year earnings of 2019 in early 2020

It is my opinion that Mong Duong 2 and Jaks Hai Duong are near identical in all aspects including the power purchase agreement.

Therefore, results of Mong Duong 2 remains the ultimate source of my confidence in Vietnam BOT.

Correction .... should be RM239m instead of US$239m

--------------------------------
DK66 I just found another solid evidence that Mong Duong 2 made Net profit of US$190m in 2018. Accordingly, Jaks 30% will be US$239m (EPS RM0.37) , and 40% will be RM319m (EPS RM0.50).

Since distribution in 2019 is higher than 2018, therefore, 2019 profit is logically higher than 2018.

Jaks Hai Duong power plant is definitely a GOLD MINE !

edkfc,

There may be time lag between construction activities and progress billings.

I have to remind you that Jaks only recorded around 2% (exceptionally low) in progress billing in Q3 2018.

I just found another solid evidence that Mong Duong 2 made Net profit of US$190m in 2018. Accordingly, Jaks 30% will be US$239m (EPS RM0.37) , and 40% will be RM319m (EPS RM0.50).

Since distribution in 2019 is higher than 2018, therefore, 2019 profit is logically higher than 2018.

Jaks Hai Duong power plant is definitely a GOLD MINE !

You are welcome
-----------------
Investar2862 DK66, Thanks so much for your sharing. Without those information from you, I believe not many people dare to touch this stocks. Bravo!!!
12/11/2019 8:56 AM

Knowing the businesses of your investment is the only true mean to successful investing. This is what Sslee is doing.

AES has in its Q3 2019 results presentation regarded Mong Duong 2 as its most promising IPP on hand.

The AES Corp. will develop a massive, 2.2-GW combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plant in Vietnam.

The Virginia-based power generator and distributor announced that the Vietnamese government approved AES’ part in the Son My 2 project. Son My 2 will be located in the Binh Thuan province and operate under a 20-year contract with the government, according to the report.

https://www.power-eng.com/2019/10/01/aes-gains-vietnamese-approval-for-ccgt-power-plant-lng-project/#gref

AES's new power project in Vietnam only has 20 years BOT. This is made possible with the improved vietnam sovereign rating which resulted in lower interest rates.

Could it mean that Jaks Hai Duong BOT is 20% more lucrative than new power project ??

If Jaks Hai Duong is able to restructure its US$1.4b borrowings, 159bp savings is an average yearly savings of about US$11m over 18 years.

This is about RM19m more in earnings to Jaks (40%)

----------------------------------
DK66 The average margin for Vietnamese offshore loans slid to 228.1bp in 2019 from 387.1bp over Libor in 2016, according to Refinitiv LPC data.
09/11/2019 11:02 PM

The average margin for Vietnamese offshore loans slid to 228.1bp in 2019 from 387.1bp over Libor in 2016, according to Refinitiv LPC data.

https://www.reuters.com/article/lenders-warm-to-vietnamese-credits/lenders-warm-to-vietnamese-credits-idUSL3N26B1YT

Improved vietnam sovereign rating allowed Mong Duong 2 to refinance about a third of its project loan at lower coupon rate of 5.125%

This represents significant savings on interest costs over long term.

One point to note is that CSG did not follow international accounting practices and continue to treat the power plant as intangible asset instead of "loan receivable"

Ricky Kiat, Ramada,

Vinh Tan 1 2018 results reflect its initial operation results which must be used with the following in mind;

1. High initial commissioning costs as well as high interest costs
2. Any tail-end costs incurred after the commercial operation date cannot be capitalised
3. The company has opted to pay 10% tax in 2018 as it doesn't want to waste its 4 year tax free period on a less than full year operation. As it has opted to pay tax in 2018, it will try to minimise tax by maximising expenses.
4. The comprehensive income is almost twice that of PAT. It is not wise to use comprehensive income in your projection as it is mainly comprising of unrealised foreign exchange gains on assets which may not be recurring in nature.

Therefore, it is wise to wait for the next annual report for better indications.

p/s: I have found its quarterly reports for 2019 but they only have financial summaries.


--------------------------------------------------
Ricky Kiat bro dk66, bro ramada & bro sslee, correct me if wrong.
06/11/2019 11:36 PM

ramada The RM600 million is very near to my calculation. Need to confirm with DK66.
06/11/2019 11:52 PM

Vinh Tan 1 2018 results is a testimony that power plants under BOT agreements are immediately profitable upon operation.

yes, AES corporation 51%

--------------
CT DK 66

AES-VCM Mong Duong Power Company Limited is it joint venture between ES Corporation (51%), Posco Energy (30%) and China Investment Corporation (19%), ?
07/11/2019 9:26 PM
07/11/2019 10:17 PM

Thank you, Vin3133 and Hng33

Not all external income are exempted from taxes in Malaysia.

I know there is a double tax treaty between Malaysia and Vietnam. However, I m not a tax expert, I cannot confirm on whether Jaks profit from Vietnam falls is captured within the treaty. Nevertheless, I think it should be.

Maybe a tax expert can comment ?

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VIN3133 As far as i know, M'sia 's tax system is based on territorial basis , meaning only income derived from M'sia is taxable . Income sourced from outside M'sia & received in M;sia is tax exempt in M'sia
Thus, distributions received from Vietnam power plant by Jaks should be exempt from M'sia income tax .
This is my understanding .

Perhaps accountant/auditor DK66 can comment & confirm .

TQ

Dear OTB,

Thank you for your compliment

---------------
OTB Dear DK66,
I read through all your articles this morning at 4.00 am.
I am very impressed with your write-up.
Good job done.
You will have a very good karma.
We may meet up one day when I am free.
I will email you.
Thank you for your help.
OTB
07/11/2019 9:13 AM

Ramada, thanks for your effort anyway

Dear OTB,

Under the investment certificate, Jaks is free from taxes for the first 4 years, 5% VAT for the next 5 years, thereafter 10%.

I believe there is double tax treaty between Malaysia and Vietnam, if so, income from vietnam will not be subjected to tax in malaysia.

----------------------------
OTB Dear DK66,

Assume yearly profit of Jaks from power plant is RM 250M.
Will this profit subject to tax from Vietnam government and Malaysian government ?
Please advise.
Thank you.
07/11/2019 8:42 AM

Dear OTB,

AES owns 51% of Mong Duong 2.

Mong Duong 2 distributed US$74m to AES YTD 2019 from its electricity sales.

Dear OTB,

Mong Duong 2 power plant began operation in 2015, the distribution came form its capacity and energy billings on electricity sold to EVN.

-------------------------
Dear DK66,
Please help to enlighten me.
I cannot understand what is Mong Duong 2 can distribute USD145M in 9 months.
You mean Mong Duong paid power plant contractor for the work done on this power plant.
I did not read your earlier postings, I came in late in Oct 2019 only.
Thank you.
07/11/2019 8:28 AM

Ramada, can you find the latest June 2019 report on csg ?

ramada, is there an english version ?

----------------------
ramada Please note that the unit 1 and unit 2 of Vinh Tan 1 Power Plant started its operation in July and November 2018 respectively.

http://file.finance.sina.com.cn/211.154.219.97:9494/MRGG/BOND/2019/201...
06/11/2019 10:49 PM

Dear Sslee,

I hope you are aware that AES only owns 51% of Mong Duong 2. Therefore, total distribution by Mong Duong should be US$88m and US$145m for Q3 2019 and YTD respectively.

Thank you

----------------------------
Sslee Dear DK66,
https://s2.q4cdn.com/825052743/files/doc_financials/2019/q3/11-06-19-T...
Page 29: Q3 2019 Subsidiary Distributions
$ in Millions
Q3 2019 MongDuong (Eurasia): $45. YTD 2019 MongDuong (Eurasia): $74.

Thank you
06/11/2019 11:08 PM

Ramada, Thanks for sharing

------------------------------
ramada Just share-share with u guys — Vinh Tan 1 1200 MW thermal power plant's 2018 financial report.
https://klse.i3investor.com/files/my/blog/img/bl3557_untitled.png
06/11/2019 10:40 PM

Just the 9 months distribution alone already beats all the previous estimates using various methodologies.

Ricky Kiat, as fuel costs are on pass thru basis, coal prices have no impact on its earnings. It must be due to higher load factor of electricity generation. ie. more electricity generated.

----------------------
Ricky Kiat bro dk66, higher distribution because of low coal price & higher volume of electricity sales?
06/11/2019 10:13 PM

If Mong Duong 2 can distribute US$145m in 9 months, how much is its earnings ? It is a solid proof of my earlier statement that Vietnam BOT is a gold mine !

Based on US$145m in 9 months, Jaks could be receiving RM183m for its 30% share or RM244m for 40%.

Wow ! Mong Duong 2 distributed US$88m in Q3 2019. YTD US$145m. Already 50% higher than 2018 distribution.

Mong Duong 2 will deliver its Q3 results tomorrow. Given the dryer season this year, its profits should be higher and so is the distribution.

When I called buy on Jaks at RM0.50, someone called me Donkey66......

Good work

The 4th boiler successfully completed water pressure test

It is part of the JV agreement that Jaks has to subcontract its EPC works to CEEC group. As far as I know, Jaks is not involved in the construction works at all.

-----------------------
Dear bro DK66 , may i confirm whether his statement is correct ?
Is Jaks doing the construction of the power plant ?
OR
Is it wholly sub-contracted out to its JV partner for a clean mark-up/commission without Jaks having to do anything ?
Please clarify .

The author doesn't even know that the RM50m BG has been taken up in the book ...........

--------------------
gskow https://sharewalkerranch.blogspot.com/2019/10/jaks-new-miracle-stock.h...
24/10/2019 2:34 PM
JAKS - THE NEW MIRACLE STOCK
October 16, 2019
Jaks seems to be the flavour of the month as its meteoric rise from the 70s to 1.00 was fast and aggressive, but perhaps too aggressive?

This company is not without its problems. Its has a litigation case where it has lost 50 million ringgit to the Star but now appealing. Surprisingly it has not been provided for in its books. That's just a time bomb waiting to happen. They are also stuck with a dead mall in Ara Damansara which will be constantly eating into their profits. The property division is also losing money to the tune of 34 million!

So where is the earnings coming from? It is due from the JV to build the power plant, a recognition work in progress from construction. An accounting procedure.

Take note that there is a cashflow deficit of 57 million in his latest books. I believe there could be a possible cash crunch in the near future.

Better times to come? Remained to be seen......

When elephants fight, it is the trees that suffer.

Don't worry, it is ALP's interest to see the property completed as soon as possible.

Should be around 110m

---------------
Nikmon If include warrant, ALP has around 100million worth of share as at today.

If Jaks is listed in NYSE, with such aggressive buying by the CEO, the share price would have rocketed off the roof. However, this is bursa where investors are more "complicated", always in disbelieve and skeptical.... they only chase high after the share price has moved.

I have extracted the following dealings of ALP

MR ANG LAM POAH 07-Oct-2019 Acquired 7,271,000 0.751
MR ANG LAM POAH 18-Sep-2019 Acquired 350,000 0.748
MR ANG LAM POAH 13-Sep-2019 Acquired 150,000 0.752
MR ANG LAM POAH 30-Aug-2019 Acquired 300,000 0.752
MR ANG LAM POAH 29-Aug-2019 Acquired 200,000 0.750
MR ANG LAM POAH 28-Aug-2019 Acquired 150,000 0.751
MR ANG LAM POAH 27-Aug-2019 Acquired 350,000 0.775
MR ANG LAM POAH 08-Feb-2019 Others 25,164,960 (FOC)
MR ANG LAM POAH 14-Jan-2019 Acquired 300,000 0.534
MR ANG LAM POAH 11-Jan-2019 Acquired 500,000 0.536
MR ANG LAM POAH 10-Jan-2019 Acquired 200,000 0.557
MR ANG LAM POAH 20-Dec-2018 Acquired 24,827,051 (warrant @ 0.25)

ALP has spent more than RM13m in the last 10 months and another RM3.5m in personal tax to increase his shareholding from 9.1% to 13.15%

ALP has to spend another RM16m to exercise his warrants.

I believe ALP's fortune is entirely tied to Jaks. Currently he has about 85m shares of Jaks worth about RM80m today.

I saw some people here jumping up and down on the recent RPT involving Jaks buying 1216 car parks with inter-company debts owed by the vendor subsidiary.

Bear in mind, Jaks already owns 51% of the car park, it is only taking over the balance 49% ownership from ICDM.

Some blamed ALP for conflict of interest, and benefiting from the RPT.

Some suggested that ALP is bailing out his 49% JV partner ICDM where he has hidden interest.

Don't simply jump into conclusion just because it is a RPT. Do these allegations have merits ?

Now, consider;

If ALP has an interest in ICDM which owns 49% of Jaks Island Circle (JIC) which owes Jaks RM84m interest free, what is best for ALP to do ?

Firstly, since the debt is interest free, isn't more beneficial for ICDM to just sit on the debts for as long as possible while waiting for the car parks to generate returns ? Car parks can grow in value while the interest free debt sits still. Not a difficult choice to make.

Secondly, it would make more sense for ALP to divest the mall to Jaks to settle the debts. Malls are oversupplied in Selangor but not parking lots.

Therefore, since the RPT involves Jaks taking over the car park to settle the interest free debts, ALP is acting in the best interest of Jaks.

The only question is the valuation and viability of car park business in Selangor.

Sslee,

You really thinks that the minority can go to court on Jaks' incompetent and claim fair share of profit or damages ? seriously ?? Who are you trying to fool ? or are you just trying to make me laugh ?

Sslee Dear dailyklse2010,
Let me ask you:
If you are 49% minority shareholder of JIS, are you prepared to top up your share of negative equity? Or are you going to court claiming because JAKS have full management controlled of JIC hence due to pure incompetent of JAKS in delaying project completion and handover causing massive LAD and star claim
20/10/2019 2:09 PM

Sslee You further counterclaim your fair share of profit if project is handover as promised by JAKS (Pacific Star had commenced its construction in August 2012 with a GDV of approximately RM1.2 billion: Completion date: By end August 2016: Expected handover date will be in 2nd half of 2017). What do you think the court will decide?

Thank you
20/10/2019 2:10 PM

The car parks were not meant for sale in the first place, so no question of LAD ( you can't sell car parks which were sold to buyers).

Car parks are on lower floors. Just simple structures no need renovations. No extensive staffing until commercial operations.

The JV (Jaks 51%) owns the malls, Jaks owns the car parks. Both under Jaks' control. Logical to assume that Jaks will look after its own interest.

There is no need to get paranoid by the deal.

When i said no cash flow involved, i meant the deal itself does not involve cash outflow now, not in the future.

If you buy an immature palm oil plantation, you still have to incur expenses until the plants are matured to receive cash inflow.

It is my opinion that car parks have very minimal maintenance expenses.

The car park is valued at RM4m below book value.

The question here is whether the valuation of the car park is fair and I think Sarifah may have the answer.