yup sherlock.. i have mentioned all those before... forex gain is only some extra bonus to Evergreen... what i am looking into is their core business expansion

hi sherlock... USD/MYR conversion rate is not something we can control. As long as the company's fundamentals are sound and solid, we should have no problem investing in it...
after all, I think MYR will still be weak against USD in the next few years even if it will appreciate a little bit... I see no reason for MYR to keep appreciating at a great degree under current situation...

if you are lazy.. just go speculate any share...

as i have told many ppl before, investing is all about doing a lot of homework and you must be hardworking and dedicated to spend time... these are no rocket science.. but u need to spend time... dun be lazy...

these are no fancy calculations.. just very basic and simple ones.. but good to use for valuation...

hi king36 & nikicheong.. let me share with u the breakdown of my calculation:

**sorry, i just found out a small error in calculation.. updated below (in fact, the intrinsic value becomes higher)

Based on Trailing 4Qs (as at Q2 2017), as the latest EBIT has improved,
Assume EV/EBIT = 10, EV = 402.430M
Market Cap = 479.952M
Intrinsic value = RM2.8073/share
Margin of safety = 88.41% (if you buy at current price, you can possibly make such profit)

EBIT (trailing 4 Qs) = 40.243M
Assume EV/EBIT = 10, EV = 402.430M
Market Cap = EV - total debts - minority interest + cash (total debt = 26.175M, MI = 19.128M, cash = 122.825M) = 479.952M
Intrinsic value based on this valuation = Market Cap / total number of shares (170.964M) = RM2.8073/share

haha... dear "user"... do u even understand the meaning of "overvalued"... if yes, show me how you come up with this definition on Prlexus

haha... mikibob... u tell me which stock is not in red now? (yes, maybe a few, but not many for sure)... that is the overall poor sentiments for almost all stocks due to the US bombing (earlier on to Syria, then Aghanistan)...

but this is short-termed.. aim for longer term for what i mentioned above... cheers..
remember, patience pays off...

PLPman can earn 100% in a short period of time, but at the same time, he can also lose 100% or 200% of his $$$...

Value investing is maybe slower but definitely a more secured and steady method.

haha... OTB seems like a student of KC Chong.. yup.. fundamental/value investing is still the right way to go with...

I do not know OTB in person but I think his/KC's method of investing will definitely KO the PLPman in a long run...

haha.. raider and PLPman are arguing... support Raider!!!

joker is a kindergarten level kid who just knows to look at net profit & debt on the balance sheet... he totally cannot understand the cash flow of the company....

Joker does not understand(or purposely try to mislead ppl) the meaning of NET debt/cash... haha...
with the improvement of cash flow from operation (which we can see from quarter to quarter), Evergreen will very likely become a NET cash company very soon... i have said it many times...

from the way this joker wrote, it is quite obvious he is a new ID created by the oldtime joker sxckperformer..

and his misleading + manipulated info can be due to the following reasons:

1) He is deeply stuck in Hevea, wanted to beat down Evergreen and try to promote Hevea
2) He is very afraid that Evergreen will emerge as a substantial RTA player (not yet currently) and will eat into Hevea's share market...

If not, why is he so biased and misleading?
He said Evergreen is not diversified.. but what I or the top management (see the news on TheStar) had mentioned that they are diversifying into particleboard and new RTA...

Joker said:
Does the MASSIVE DEBTS RM 205,257,000 disappear or still around? That alone speaks more than a thousand words also.

But joker purposely leave out the fact that Evergreen has a total cash of RM160.308M, as I had mentioned earlier, the net debt is only RM44.949M (after deducting the cash).. why did he purposely leave the cash out? what is the net debt/equity ratio? it is only 44.949/1151.217 = 0.039 or 3.9% (which is what the news on theStar said)..

Joker said:
Does the MASSIVE DEBTS RM 205,257,000 disappear or still around? That alone speaks more than a thousand words also.

But joker purposely leave out the fact that Evergreen has a total cash of RM160.308M, as I had mentioned earlier, the net debt is only RM44.949M (after deducting the cash).. why did he purposely leave the cash out? what is the net debt/equity ratio? it is only 44.949/1151.217 = 0.039 or 3.9% (which is what the news on theStar said)..

and dun forget what i told in the past:

Evergreen is improving cash from operations from quarter to quarter, while at the same time, net debt drops from quarter to quarter (as most of the CAPEX for expansions have been used in 2015-16)... and if this condition continues, it will BECOME NET CASH company very soon!!!

Can't you see that coming?
well, sxckperformer aka heaveakrea aka CKCS may not see it... how could this level of "speculators" see all this?

Joker said:
Does the MASSIVE DEBTS RM 205,257,000 disappear or still around? That alone speaks more than a thousand words also.

But joker purposely leave out the fact that Evergreen has a total cash of RM160.308M, as I had mentioned earlier, the net debt is only RM44.949M (after deducting the cash).. why did he purposely leave the cash out? what is the net debt/equity ratio? it is only 44.949/1151.217 = 0.039 or 3.9% (which is what the news on theStar said)..

if you all understand what a vertical integration model is.. u will know why i invested in Evergreen...

Evergreen is currently expanding into RTA (furnitures) lines and as they ownselves produce the raw materials (particleboards and MDFs) for the RTA, they can manage the cost better and have a overall better profit margin.. that is the benefit of vertical integration..

secondly.. as some joker (aka sxckperformer) who was still claiming that Evergreen is going to spend more CAPEX in 2017.. which I pointed out that he was wrong that most of the CAPEX had been spent in 2015-2016... and it is not waiting for the fruits to ripe... and what the top management said in the report, matched exactly what I said in the past...

of course, I am not boasting here.. i am not a God ... i don;t know things in the future if there is no clue... but from my own research and studies based on the clues and some news provided, i can link them up to see the big picture.. you can do the same too.. if you are observant and hardworking enough...

investment is all about devotion and doing a lot of homework...

nothing comes for free, for sure..

cheers to those who invested in Evergreen, regardless of whether you bought into it due to your own research or after listening to me previously...

a value investor is one who buys shares when they are trading at a discount and wait for it to realize its intrinsic value...

as stated in the news:

“Our group’s long-term direction is to diversify away from principally relying on sales of raw MDF boards by going downstream via value-adding and product differentiation. As our furniture offerings are made of panel boards, the completion of the particleboard plant will complement our efforts to expand our downstream ambitions as one of the major raw materials for our furniture products is particleboard,” he said.

Evergreen’s in-house production of intermediate products including the glue, MDF boards and particleboards gives rise to Evergreen’s position of being a true integrated producer from raw boards to boards with overlay and RTA furniture sets.

The projects, when completed, will strengthen Evergreen’s core competencies as well as complement and generate new but related income streams.

Leong said most of the investment costs for the expansion projects had already been accounted for in FY15 and FY16.

“We expect a capex budget of no more than RM50mil for FY17. We think there could be a slight improvement in our financial results this year compared with the previous year, as our expansion projects will start to kick-in in the second half of the year,” he said.

haha.. i was busy and didnt log in here for a few days...
and now i see so many jokers (new ID : CKCS (aka starperformer/heavekrea, etc) and the sochai (Holland Chai)... and also Cut_losss....

anyway, glad to see what popo92 and jackng06 said... these guys are smart and talk based on real facts, not manipulated facts...

sorry.. it is 0.94 now

0.93 now bro...

everyone has different definition for business sense...

haha... value investing is part of business sense, do you not know that?

raider... all the while I did not say Hevea is bad.. i have to acknowledge that they are doing good too.. just that we all know that Evergreen suggest a better margin of safety due to its discounted price.. and their growth and expansion into this new lines would suggest a re-rating soon... whereas Hevea is more like a already-transformed company.. compared to evergreen.. more room for the share price to go up

myongcc5.. i am not humble though.. haha.. when i shoot ppl, i can be arrogant sometimes.. but i do not want to do that if not forced to...

after we pointed him wrong, he quickly deleted all his manipulated/misleading posts.. that is very low class of him...

guys.. that joker (new ID heavekrea) deleted all his previous posts!!! haha...

myonecc5, i am not smart, just that i am not as stupxd as some joker.. that is it..

i agree with you myongcc5... this kind of share has a cyclical up and down... but it is pretty hard for us to time the market or when the commodity price will go up and down... what we can do is to invest in it when it is undervalued (better if it has a growth like in this case - evergreen)...

Evergreen management understands the volatility of commodity price.. so they are expanding also into value added MDF and RTA where they can better control costs and selling price...
Vertical integration is what i mentioned here.. and more importantly, the share is selling at discounted price...

haha... lol

his so-called investment skills and ethics are so low-class which rank to step 1 (0-6 months)

haha.. jack, he does not require that, he needs infant formula (step 1: 0-6 months)

and worse is.. he is not ashamed of himself.. haha

haha.. jackng06... this is not the first time i caught him red handed.. he is a super joker and unethical manipulator...

joker, just reply to what i said above, pls.. dun run away.. act like a man, not a sissy.. plz

why this joker never dares to debate with me on the facts I raised above?

answer is very obvious.. he knows he has no point to fight back...

haha... take 2013 and 2014 (exceptional years) into account... why don;t you take a 10 or 20 years to calculate?

i have said that in 2013-14 (do not want to repeat long explanation again) was exceptional due to oversupply of MDF espeically in ASEAN... that is why Evergreen is not more cautious and started to diversify into particleboard and RTA which command better profit margin...

This is number 1: growth..
ok, growth itself is not enough, we look at fundamentals.. cash is increasing.. debt is reducing..
what is their free cash flow yield? over 4% which is great... are you still saying their cash flow have problem?

and more importantly, going to second half of 2017 or early 2018.. their improvement in cash from operation may bring Evergreen into NET CASH company, because the CAPEX for 2017 will reduce significantly...

raider.. stockmanmy is very pannai in one thing: PLP old man.. haha

i never bought or sold Genting share before.. i am not sure of other value investors though.. but i believe a real value investor would not have bought into a share if it does not have margin of safety...

let me ask u then stockmanmy:

why do you think it is ridiculous when Genting share price goes to RM20?
You should have a base to value why it is crazy or overpriced at RM20, right?

if the fundamentals (magic formula, ROIC, CY, etc) of a share suggest that RM20 is till undervalued, then it is.. every share has its intrinsic value, it is not say that a RM1 share is cheaper than RM10 share just because the share price is "cheaper".. similar thing, a share worth RM10 today may not be crazy or expensive if it hits RM20 after a few years.. if its intrinsic value keeps increasing due to improvement of fundamentals..

haha... well said Raider..

again, very obvious.. this idixt is a joker who accused things without a base.. just to save himself from being stuck in Hevea.. sometimes i feel sorry for his stupidity...

from the way this joker wrote, I am 99.99% sure he is the suspended joker sxckperformer.. haha

haha... raider.. this joker is biased and always manipulated info... see, caught red handed that he purposely not mentioned that Evegreen has MASSIVE cash of RM160M?

why? u know, i know..

this kind of debate does not require our beloved, non-corrupt PDM to give permission to conduct.. :)

haha... i am not bullying him la.. i am just having open discussion/debate with him...

we have seen enough of your skill in plp'ing someone, ur self-blown skills of being a "dynamic" investor, but we havent seen a real case study how you value a stock.. pls enlighten us...

dun worry PlsGiveBonus.. Mr Market will soon give you some bonus for investing in undervalued share like Prlexus.. haha