Low risk high return? it's not for the faint hearted for sure.

I want to take 2013 to 2023 again.

Year --- NAV change % -- Cash Level %
2013 --- 16 -- 51
2014 --- -8 -- 63
2015 --- 8 -- 62
2016 --- 11 -- 68
2017 -- 46 -- 54
2018 -- -39 -- 68
2019 -- -5 -- 68
2020 -- -4 -- 50
2021 -- 58 -- 34
2022 -- -20 -- 34
2023 -- 14 -- 30

Average return(Mean) 7%, standard deviation 27%.

Despite of high cash level, volatility is kind of high.

Stripping of the cash, his invested portfolio volatility is even higher.

Looks like no pains no gains, no f**k no son to me....just like the rest of us.

One other thing - there are physical ETFs and also synthetic ETFs...Physical ETFs will really go and buy the index component stocks and will receive dividends. They will also distribute the dividends to investors. Synthetic ETFs may use only swaps and collateral...now I seeing some people shaking heads saying WTF @x!##$ 😡 Nothing is easy in the investing world. Now you see when you really want to execute on such a simple idea got so much more issues. 😂😂

I like financial jungles because it's fair because of 3 big words: Risk Adjusted Return. Welcome to the Hunger Games the moment you have itchy hands want to chase after return higher than FD, Fixed Income, EPF........Are you happy with 3-5% with zero risk(volatility) or 10% return with 20% risk(volatility or variance)?

P.S Not trying to show off but I was crazy enough to try all kind of things......sometimes fingers burnt till unrecognizable but sometimes also got happy endings. Just sharings. Cheers🍺🍺

Ooops....I had better be specific.....ETF and not mutual funds. And there are mutual fund companies simply just blend ETFs and sell it to investors in the name of democratize wealth management industry.....LoL. Caveat Emptor.

iCAP has a tendency of grandstanding trying to create differentiation for the same thing. Forgive the old man....As for the DRP....with enough take up, it will dilute COL ownership over time if COL elected to take cash. That's all the more, 23% ownership in excess of 20% is not a concern to me. They just keep trying to contain COL. 🤐

Not all index funds are created equal.....only US market S&P 500 is probably is an exception. KLCI e.g. depending on your entry timing, buying at the wrong timing is probably going nowhere. So is Singapore, STI and needless to say Hong Kong HSI or HSCEI and etc......Only when a stock market crashed like 40-50%, going for a big swing with index funds will be OK....😎

I would not give specific answer but those want to go by performance-based fees, it should be simple and in absolute return %. No complaints how tough is the stock market environment or you are better than the index.

In the early days of Warren Buffet when we ran fund for his friends, his performance structure was clear: above 6% take 24% in excess of that, below 6% go home empty handed ZERO.....Example let's say one year his fund return 7%. He takes only 1% x 24% = .24%, you get to keep 6.76% of the return. If he losses your money ZERO, if he return 5.99% ZERO for him. He didn't charge entry and exit fees. 😂😂

So need to do the math to determine whether worth it or not. If you can't work out the mechanism or scenario then you don't understand it, if you don't understand it, put the money you don't need to understand it with no capital loss....😂😂

Wah Tiga i.....so firm.....TTB nanti 😭😭

John....give me a hug. Make love, not war. His loyal investors jumped ship ady lo. Else why would they give me RM 1 by accepting 60 sen coins.....Peace forever....👻👻

To be honest to all, I was happy when all are f***g TTB on innovative dividend policy...cause it will create discounts again....enough discounts....that is the time I will be dancing....making deals...evil me😉

I was glad that a few other posts start to talk about NAV, performance and etc....this is important thing for price discovery...we are doing TTB a favor actually educating the public....but with a small fees.....no free lunch in this world ma.😂😂

What matters to me is investors sentiments.....this subject of behavioral finance is important...😂😂 I got a bit of interest

Usually I don't like to use benchmark to see out performance because i find that everyone will say their good points....where got people sell flower don't praise their flower fragrance one.

@dumbMoney. Thanks....time to take the outperformance was an issue....for example, for consistency sake, when Tiga i said from 2013 till 2023, iCap lau si performance, at that point KLSE was at around 1,800 and today is 1400, a drop of 22% and assume that Div Yied of 4%(approximately lah since it's sunday), cummulative of 40% - 22, 18%.. so average about 2%(not CAGR ya...lazy to take out my financial calculator la)...that is why know it was lower but usually I always take 10% either as a discounting factor either do DCF or other things....I am a street fighter ma...not a professional wall street guy

I am a capitalist....my religion is making money....go to the street and fight....take no sides😂😂

So TTB is f×××××g better do better than 10% on the cash he sits on it while waiting to buy low sell high.

@dumb money...assuming Rf is 3 mnths malaysia treasury bill of 3.15%, beta of 1(I just assume but didn't run the correlation) expected market return ....hmm a bit of problem with KLSE it's pretty bad actully but for argument sake...it's 10%...so max cost of equity is about 10% max. But in reality is lower...lazy to go back to my Portfolio class. I was never a smart student. 😴

Then resell 1 Ringgit for 75 sen.....make my day ... buy more moon cakes....cheer guys.

There are just really smart people wanna hand you a 1 Ringgit note by accepting 60 sen. I am gladly shaking hands with those smart people, making deals...the more the merrier.

Discounts is a welcome thing is you want to buy I wish it's 80% discounts. dumb money brought up a good reminder reversion to mean someday when the sentiments turn, we don't need a parity just lesser discounts ady make money.

But stagnant of NAV as pointed out by Tiga i got people keep selling but it's all depend which side of trade you are now, those bought at 1.7 to 2 will be smiling.

TTB charged about 3.5 millions on fund management fees + another 3.5 million on investment advisory fees in 2022 - about 1.5%. Sorry guys can't agree this the cause of discounts to NAV.

This is where I differ with the rest that we should not be harping on cash he has converted from profits taking. There are times that it's okay to hold high cash, there are times that should reduce cash.....don't interfere with the fund manager strategy. Don't get jealous because of management fees and we should not be double standards. Have ever asked your mutual fund managers to reduce the fees when the funds that you buy losing money? If someone didn't really losing a lot of your money you ask for fees reduction and etc....It's a bit unfair. I understand the logic of share buy back but for control purpose, iCap will never do it.

Anyone who wants to buy now is only betting on rising NAV not to pray for discounts to narrow. Also pray our fund manager to book the profits to preserve NAV. :)

Because of the high cash he hold, he managed to pick up some bargains during Covid 19 period. One of his biggest winner is SEM.....now he is betting on Hibiscus and CapitalA. Let's see how it turn out to be.

Usually when NAV is shooting up, meaning also could be due to rising sentiments. Fund manager has option to take profit and covert to cash so that when market decline, it will suffer less. Actually TTB is hiding behind cash that is why when there are periods of rapid decline in the KLSE, he looks good relatively and it's not because of his share selections bullet proof.

@ Tiga i. The same table that you share, you put 1 more column on % cash on hand....there are periods our fund manager hold high level of cash.....but it was prercisely when the discount was growing that I started to buy regularly. :)

I believe COL will buy my idea too, it's too early to shut it down and divide the estate. What they are trying to do is to establish a clear majority right from the beginning so that they can call the shot when the time is ripe for harvesting.

In any event, if, I am saying, hypothetically I am having about 3-5% ownership in iCap, will I vote to close the fund, the answer is not at NAV of 3.53 with 25% discount NAV to Share Price. But sometime in the future, 20 years from now, NAV 11.32, share price 8.49, 25% discount NAV to share price, will I vote to close it down. The answer is probably yes, TTB will be 90 years old.....it's about time we harvest it. 😂😂

@Tiga i - whether payout as dividend caused pitiful return is debatable. In the first place, stripping off the dividend, holdings that they have is just simply underperforming. Don't forget that TTB is a die hard fan of China markets, if he overweight China markets don't expect it to perform. Also the currency of choice is AUD, in 2009, 1AUD = 2.5, this alone should give him some advantage in MYR term....bottomline....poor showing.

COL is good necessarily evil actually because either ways smallshare holders win. Liquidation of fund in sometime in the future for those still have positions will get back all the money that locked as "discounts". When COL keeps making noise, then the fund manager needs to optimize the returns. Check and balance will be there.

I am not all that concern with that 3% but just that more speed bumps mean they will try to discourange it from increasing the ownership.

Foreign ownership limit is not something new but it is usually more common if it is systemically important instituition such as banks or telecomunications.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3389047
Based on the latest announcement, iCap is trying to clip COL wings by reviewing its rights and obligations attached to the shares based on LIFO method. They may not necessarily forced to sell the % above 20% otherwise iCap management may not necessarily go to the extend to design additional speed bumps.

Let comment on share buy back of which I think TTB will never agree to it. It's a simple math. Let's say TTB take 140 million cash and buy back at 2.64 at today's closing price, it will reduce outstanding shares about 53 million shares from 140 million to 87 million shares. If COL didn't sell a single of their holding of 32 million shares, they ownership will be in percentage wise increase from 23% to 37%.......if they buy a bit more will cross 51%.....then TTB will be checkmate!

*stop checking

There are tonnes of examples of this kind of scenarios in a bear market.....one of the examples is Chinese banking stocks with dividend yield > 8% in Hong Kong market. Despite of generous or progressive payout rate, when sentiments sours, there is nothing you can do about it. It's either get out or just stock checking stock price for a new years.

One positive light I can see, they give you options - if you have strong conviction, buy more iCap when yield becomes attractive 6-8%, or if you think there are better profitable investment ideas some where - take that dividend money and buy other profitable shares lo.

If the ex-dividend price does not move up or worse going down, the NAV discounts will remain in percentage wise....

No problem la --- returning 10 sen per share to share holder, or about 14 million/year, chicken feet la. Based on 31/5/2023, they still have about 140 million, they can afford to pay it out over 10 years....after payout the dividend, NAV will reduce also, so is ex-dividend share price will drop, but if it can climb back, it's a cheating way of narrowing discount.

When they know they need to pay out dividend, then they probably will do a bit more active investing.

Okay2...let me also sell some to buy musang king moon cake...😎😋

Looking at the price actions, people more motivated to sell, widen the discounts to get higher yield...<__> last traded price 2.65. also okay for me Cox of much lower entry price.😉

Key actually is still NAV growth... Most of discounts in CEF either is totally underperforming NAV(not growing or declining) or sectors totally out of favor in the US markets. It's a function of performance and crowd psychology.

My expectation is always whether they need to grow NAV at least match EPF 6%... hold on it long enough... Someday it may get liquidated to get back all the discount. Many years ago there was one CEF in bursa get liquidated after listed for about 10 years.

While waiting, can just reinvest the dividend into EPF as a barbell strategy.

My dua sen of opinion.

iCap historical NAV growth is about 8% using IPO as a base.
For the purpose of that illustration I shaved off 2% and use 20% discount as the base case for the sake of margin of safety. There will be some upside if we use 10% discount and 8% NAV CAGR....you can work it out yourself on CAGR. 😂😂

For some who are interested in learning about closed end funds you may visit this website
https://www.cefa.com/
You can a much more wider statistic of closed end funds performance ( discount/premium).....Average equity discount on much more efficient market is about 9.6%, 20% is quite rare but there are cases of as much as 40%.

I ran a very simply scenario
NAV growth = 6% per annum
Base NAV 3.6
Share price 2.72
Discount between NAV and Share Price 20% discount
Year/NAV/Share Price/Dividend
Year 1 3.81/3.05/.099
Year 2 4.04/3.23/.105
Year 3 4.29/3.43/0.111
Year 4 4.545/3.64/0.118
Year 5 4.813.854/0.125
Year 6 5.10/4.085/0.133
Year 7 5.413/4.33/0.141
Year 8 5.74/4.59/0.149
Year 9 6.08/4.86/0.158
Year 10 6.44/5.16/0.167

Total dividend received over 10 year $ 1.307 = 48% at 2.72 price entry
Capital gain = (5.16-2.72)/2.72 = 90%
Total Return = 138%
CAGR = 9%

Quite fair la

REITS may not give capital growth but if TTB is really good in growing NAV with regular dividend...it's not a bad idea idea after all. Need to give him a bit of credits

Based rate 1% of Simple 4 weeks of NAV + 8% x Discount Between NAV and Share Price.

If simple average of 4 weeks NAV = 3.6, Share Price = 2.72
Dividend = 1% * 3.6 + 8% * (3.6-2.72) = 0.1064.
Dividend Yield = 0.1064/2.72 = 3.91%

Not bad lah if it is tax free on the dividend. 🤣🤣

iCapital.biz finally announced the Innovative Dividend Policy 🤣🤣
https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3388655

But ICAP still performing better than Public Mutual. Still need to feed agents and fund managers with performance can't even beat FD😪

Malu loh if can't even beat EPF. We all used to ridicule and hantam them kau kau😂😂