By the way FutureEyes is another id of Probability for posting articles that he is quite convinced earlier.

Predicted the record EPS of Q3 2017 on 11 Nov 2017 as per below article before the results came out on 30 Nov 2017.

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/Insight1/2017-11-11-story137875-Q3_...

Q2 2022 prediction on gross profit after hedging loss is also accurate as per below article by probability:

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2022-06-11-story-h1624320379-HENGYUAN_derivatives_loss_on_Q1_22_completely_clarification.jsp


Posted by CharlesT > Sep 3, 2022 10:06 AM | Report Abuse

As a general rule, apply a 90% discount on all the China Boss's Cos.

Second, spend yr time to study the contents of the Author n try to understand n verify so.

Third, check the Author's track records.....I have seen Sifu Probability's earlier analysis in Heng Yuan 1 (2017), Lionind (Steel Party in 2018) ,I think Dayang as well (2019).....

While I cant deny his facts n figures fm his previous posts sometimes do look convincing, but the ending is all the same.

See if we shall see a different ending this round.

Last but not least, back to my first sentence (As a general rule, apply a 90% discount on all the China Boss's Cos), it's oredi being proven 100% correct in Bursa for the past 10 years.

Good luck in HY.

Inventory write down 34.5m, impairment loss 15m, shutdown overhead cost 15m, Total 65m

It appears like a big communication breakdown between the two parties

OTB, all my derivations are mainly based on information provided by DK66. I certainly think 250M is possible as Mong Duong reported good earnings despite operating at very low utilization rate. Vinh Tan 1 had proven what a normal utilization rate can be. With this two info i am quite certain Hai Duong will deliver more than what market is perceiving now.

DK66, thanks for the steam blow test date info.
OTB, i think DK66 replied your query earlier based on end of the year steam blow testing.

Further investment on hydropower will reach a constraint due to limited number of rivers. Vietnam government either have to go for renewable energy sources which are even more expensive or raise the reliance on coal fired power plants.

JAKS & The Identical Power plant that generates RM 1.5 Billion annualized Profit presently

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600247782.jsp

The upgrade to 900,000 ton/yr was done in 2006 from 800,000 ton/yr in 2005.

This means the actual throughput potential is much higher than what C.S Tan mentioned in 2004 where it had produced 825,000 tons the previous year with effective productivity measures.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/subscribe/4235/option2#/?category=AR

Please read the first article on HBI.

The very fact that it is HBI and not DRI means it is for Export market.

The location in Labuan is strategic to supply to Vietnam, and other Indochina countries. They used to supply a portion to their West Malaysia plant in Banting.

The HBI throughput and revenue for 2017 and potential in 2018 are presented on the Tables 1 & 2 of the article.



Posted by jesry > Aug 11, 2018 09:32 AM | Report Abuse

thx 1st futureeye.
may i know how many % export from lion ?


Posted by rojakmee > Aug 10, 2018 10:06 PM | Report Abuse

Just to find out the capacity improvement in year 2018. anyone ?

rojakmee what was the % operating capacity for Antara Plant and Labuan Plant in the year 2017 ? when will Megasteel start operating ?
10/08/2018 22:03

Yes

Posted by value88 > Aug 10, 2018 09:39 PM | Report Abuse

I suppose pig iron is also transportable like HBI. If that is the case, AnnJoo also can sell and export pig iron produced from its blast furnace(?)

value88, annjoo used to export Pig Iron to Vietnam when local steel demand was low.

Yes, that is for HBI plant alone.

Posted by myongcc5 > Aug 10, 2018 08:44 PM | Report Abuse

In this case, if everything materialize by 2020, Lion King shud fetch at least >$6/share (based on yr earning postulation @ PE10.

5 min video on HBI:

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600169134.jsp

https://vimeo.com/60475742

My original article link below:

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600168169.jsp

Iron ore cost-effective for steel mills as price diverges from scrap

http://blogs.platts.com/2018/03/08/iron-ore-steel-mills-price-diverges-scrap/


Over the past five years, the price differential between domestic scrap and iron ore imports has averaged $200/mt. However, since scrap prices began to elevate precipitously in October 2017, the differential increased to a high of $332/mt in late December.

soojinhou, thanks for the appreciation

soojinhou, the article was meant to give a simple understanding of the process. There is no need for such detail understanding.

Reason i had mentioned carbon is because it is something more tangible for the readers.

What is important is the Inputs, i,e the raw material and energy in the form of Natural Gas and Electricity required by the Shaft Furnace process.

http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/direct-reduced-iron-DRI.h...

Extract from above: "to burn off carbon and oxygen content"

Alternative iron source produced by heating an iron ore (generally having 65 to 70 percent iron) at a temperature high enough to burn off its carbon and oxygen content (a process called reduction) but below iron's melting point(1535°C or 2795°F). The output is sold as pellets or briquettes (called hot briquetted iron or HBI) and contains from 90 to 97 percent pure iron, the rest being mainly carbon with trace amounts of other impurities.

Posted by soojinhou > Aug 5, 2018 01:56 PM | Report Abuse

May I point out a big error in the article? Iron making is the process of removing OXYGEN, not CARBON. Iron ore exists as oxide, ie rusts. To make steel, you need to remove the OXYGEN, typically with high calorific carbon such as coking coal. At high temperature, carbon combined with oxygen to produce CO2 thus Fe2o3 becomes Fe. Carbon is then added to Fe in minute quantity to create a steel alloy that is strong and tough.

If one goes through the Tables above showing the cost of production derivation, one would notice that electricity tariff hike has almost negligible (zero) implication on its DRI/HBI production costs.

The tariff hike news had been capitalized by many speculative traders recently to push down the stock price.

The electricity costs has a considerable effect on EAF Scrap Iron melting plants only, where the consumption can go up to 500 kwh/ton. Even then, this is very small in comparison to other factors.

The plant Lionind is about to acquire is EAF plant as described on article above. The steel produced will be rolled to produce HRC, Hot Rolled Coil.

Thats all there is to it.

As presented on the HRC margin chart on the article above, the current margin of HRC making is exceeding RM 800 per ton compared to just RM 200/ton one and half year ago for a prolonged period.

Considering the below information from Hng33, i dont see an issue with Megasteel "asset"" acquisition. I see at as a win/win strategy instead of a bailout (win/lose).


Megasteel assets worth net book value RM 1.83 billion, sell to Lionind for just RM 538m and payment is base on deffer basis, The Lion Industries group is expected to pay ONLY RM132.16mil within 14 days from the date of lodgement of the court order for the Megasteel debt settlement scheme and the remaining payment shall be paid on a deferred basis.


Posted by hng33 > Jul 5, 2018 05:24 PM | Report Abuse

Megasteel is own by lion crop (76%)and lion diversified (24%), both control listed shareholder already delisted due to insolvency.

Lionind is buying megasteel assets/plant at huge discount and payoff its plant electricity bill in order to restart operation.

Lionind is NOT buying megasteel company, therefore, will NOT assume Megastseel company liability. megasteel will become empty shelf company will no assets backing after sold off its plant to lionind at huge discount. Megasteel will received cash payment from lionind on deferred basis and allowing megasteel to gradually repay back at 'discount' to all its creditor lionind (megasteel owe lionind as much RM 700m debt) and lender bank back.

Posted by hng33 > Jul 5, 2018 01:53 PM | Report Abuse

The main reason for such good deal between megasteel-lionind is lionind is megasteel CREDITOR in which megasteel owe lionind total RM 699m debt, therefore lionind have Upperhand and firsthand deal to bargain hunt on megasteel asset and arrange how megasteel can repay back in such arrangement in favor of lionind

Megasteel assets worth net book value RM 1.83 billion, sell to Lionind for just RM 538m and payment is base on deffer basis, The Lion Industries group is expected to pay ONLY RM132.16mil within 14 days from the date of lodgement of the court order for the Megasteel debt settlement scheme and the remaining payment shall be paid on a deferred basis. this will allow lionind to expedite and restart steel plant to full operation first, generate profit, and use such profit to gradually fully settle payment to megatseel at much later time. This in turn allow megasteel to staggering payback previous long outstanding debt back to creditor lionind and lender bank.

This is a ring fence payment scheme arrangement to eventually allow megasteel to become just shelf company, only use it to received cash payment from lionind on deffer basis and later use such cash to staggering settle debt owe to lionind, allowing it to recover back previous impairment provision.


Management’s response to Minority Shareholder Watchdog Group’s letter dated 17 November 2017

Q: As reported on page 119 of the Annual Report 2017, the Group has trade receivables due from the following two major relatedparties, Megasteel and Lion DRI which have been fully impaired in the previous year. The amount due is approximately RM700 million in the book. How confident is the Board that the amount is recoverable?

What actions have been taken to recover the trade receivables


A: Megasteel is currently structuring a scheme of arrangement (“Scheme”) with its creditors to settle its outstanding debts. The outcome would only be known upon the implementation of the Scheme by Megasteel. The ability of Lion DRI to generate sufficient cash flows to repay its debts to the Group is highly dependent on the Scheme of Megasteel, the underlying market demand, price of direct reduced iron and availability of raw materials

http://www.lion.com.my/WebCorp/licb.nsf/dbcfaa4642ae5c084825822400275b...

Posted by sherlock > Aug 4, 2018 05:24 PM | Report Abuse

futureeye,

thank you for your kind sharing
but, the most worrisome part about the Megasteel acquisition is not sufficient or seriously dealt with.
what is the impact of the megasteel acquisition on the prospective earning of lionind you had described in detail in your article ? is it an act of bailing out of a debt ridden company ?

Subject covered in the above article:


PART 1: The simple Iron Making process and how the spike in Scrap Iron price against Iron Ore makes HBI producer the ultimate winner?

PART 2: The turnaround in Lion’s HBI plant in 2017 and what will happen in 2018 considering raw material-Iron ore price is declining and product HBI price sky-rocketing with Scrap Iron?

PART 3: Strong supporting facts for the possibility of above 60 cents EPS derivation in Part 2 , 2nd scenario.

3.1 Historical performance of HBI plant:

3.2 Case study on what happened in 2004 for such spectacular earnings:

3.3 HBI demand prospect 2018:

3.4 HBI profit margin prospect 2018

PART 4: What could other Steel making plants of Lionind offer on EPS going forward?

Including Megasteel acquisition.

PART 5: Concluding statement

Subject covered in the above article:


PART 1: The simple Iron Making process and how the spike in Scrap Iron price against Iron Ore makes HBI producer the ultimate winner?

PART 2: The turnaround in Lion’s HBI plant in 2017 and what will happen in 2018 considering raw material-Iron ore price is declining and product HBI price sky-rocketing with Scrap Iron?

PART 3: Strong supporting facts for the possibility of above 60 cents EPS derivation in Part 2 , 2nd scenario.

3.1 Historical performance of HBI plant:

3.2 Case study on what happened in 2004 for such spectacular earnings:

3.3 HBI demand prospect 2018:

3.4 HBI profit margin prospect 2018

PART 4: What could other Steel making plants of Lionind offer on EPS going forward?

Including Megasteel acquisition.

PART 5: Concluding statement

LIONIND – The massive 900,000 Ton Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) Plant 100% EXPORT at PE = 1

Author: FutureEyes | Publish date: Sat, 4 Aug 2018, 12:09 PM

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600168169.jsp

"With where pig iron and busheling prices are, both above $400 and with the benefit of cheap and easily available natural gas, our cash margin for HBI would be north of $150/ton," Goncalves told analysts on Friday.

23 Jul 2018

Analysis: Direct reduced iron margin outlook against pig iron healthy, says US miner Cleveland-Cliffs

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/072318-analysis-direct-reduced-iron-margin-outlook-against-pig-iron-healthy-says-us-miner-cleveland-cliffs

London — US iron ore miner Cleveland-Cliffs, which is building an HBI plant in Ohio, said it sees a healthy margin between direct reduced iron (DRI) and pig iron, and a move to higher quality iron units for regional electric arc steel mills stoking demand.

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Register Now A wider price spread has developed between pig iron and steel products with indicative DRI cash costs, as natural gas-rich industrial areas such as the Middle East, the US and Russia fire gas to reduce iron ore pellets to form iron usable in EAF mills and at integrated works.
S&P Global Platts sees DRI costs based on a FOB Brazil reference, trending over the past three years at around $200-$250/mt, assuming $4/MMBtu gas prices and $20/mt cash costs. Over the same three-year period FOB prices of pig iron from the Black Sea have doubled to over $400/mt FOB.

Pig iron, for commonly traded basic grade, is higher purity in iron than HBI and typically commands a premium in spot sales. The fixed costs of DRI and HBI plants, and associated works are huge, and Cliffs is budgeting $700 million for Toledo, Ohio, where it hopes to supply mills in the Midwest and Great Lakes.

The flexibility of using metallics, along with reducing impurities from scrap, may convert into value-in-use benefits in steel range and margins, and feedstock procurement options.

Hot-briquetted iron, a more transportable version of DRI, can expect to be competitive as Cliffs' Toledo plant comes onstream in 2020, according to Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves. Cliffs may beat the August 2020 startup and deliver HBI earlier, he said.

"With where pig iron and busheling prices are, both above $400 and with the benefit of cheap and easily available natural gas, our cash margin for HBI would be north of $150/ton," Goncalves told analysts on Friday.

The spread between DRI costs estimated by Platts and Black Sea pig iron has continued to widen into July, as iron ore prices and strong pig iron demand keep seaborne levels strong into the US and Mediterranean.

"With the market share of EAFs in the US now approaching 70% of overall steel-making production and with their further advancement into higher margin sophisticated steel grades our HBI will be essential," Goncalves said.

In Toledo, Cliffs said all infrastructural and foundation work for the HBI plant is being concluded as of this month and erection of the plant will start in the third quarter, with the main plant tower work starting onsite later this year.

Voestalpine already produces HBI in Corpus Christi, Texas, and exports the metallic to Mexico and Europe, as well as selling to US mini-mills. Nucor produces HBI in Trinidad, with the material used in the US.

Pricing for HBI may be linked to steel scrap and pig iron. DRI is less traded, as DRI produced on site is used by EAF plants on-site or within steel groups, such as Nucor.

Voestalpine and Nucor buy iron ore pellets for their plants, while Cliffs intends to allocate production of DR-grade pellets from its own mining and production, capitalizing on margins staying in the group.

"We are the only proven and capable producer of DR grade pellets in the US," Goncalves said. "Cliffs is the only one that has full control over feedstock, DR grade pellets and that's a decisive factor; the most important element in actually being able to produce a high-quality and cost-effective DRI, HBI."

Can India cross 1 mnt in DRI exports?

By 360 Editor - July 4, 2018

https://www.steel-360.com/stories/iron-ore/can-india-cross-1-mnt-in-dri-exports

n 2013 when India’s total Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) export stood at a meager 0.13 mnt it was almost
incomprehensible to think that the country would be able to target the 1 mnt mark in overseas sales of
DRI. However, over the last few years tides in steel trade have turned drastically with India
clocking total DRI exports of 0.55 mnt and poised to propel overseas sales further.

In the light of fresh Induction furnace capacity expansions in neighbouring Nations and a
considerable rise in ferrous scrap prices, exports of DRI also known as Sponge Iron from India has
witnessed phenomenal rise over the last year, rising by almost 85 % in 2017. If current market trends are to be brought into consideration, there is a strong possibility that supply of DRI from India may well hit the 1 mnt mark over the next couple of years.

According to data maintained with SteelMint, exports of the valuable steel making raw material has risen almost three fold since 2015 when it stood at merely 180,000 mt. In the subsequent year DRI exports went up to 300,000 and they further rose to 550,000 in 2017. One of the key propelling factors for rise in overseas sales was the Bangladesh government’s decision to impose hefty import duty on billets. This compelled Bangladesh’s steel producers to maximize capacity utilization of the operating induction furnaces and to further augment capacity. This created a spike in demand for both scrap as well as DRI to feed growing Induction Furnaces.

Specifically, in 2017, exports rose significantly in November and December recording figures of 85,000
and 80,000 tonnes of overseas sales respectively. The rise occurred in proportion with increase in global scrap prices and has since then remained more or less on the higher side. According to the current demand-supply dynamics there is a limited possibility of scrap prices declining in the next few years thus clearly indicating a strong market for DRI.

Global ferrous scrap deficit
With China maintaining its 40% duty on scrap export and strengthening efforts to consume domestically generated scrap through new EAF capacities the availability of Scrap in Asia has been constrained. To make matters worse, the recently imposed tariff on steel imports by the United States of America will
push US steel generation, thus leading to higher scrap consumption. This is expected to reduce scrap exports from the USA which has been one of key Global suppliers. These factors together may possibly create a significant deficit in demand and supply of scrap.

30 Million tonnes per annum steel capacity reduction in China for 2018 alone versus Total 3.5 Million tons of local Malaysian production per annum.

The magnitude of regional demand outpacing the shrinking supply speaks very loud and clear from above figures.

Thanks for pointing out Warn3r. There is definitely enough buffer.


Double it if you want but it never comes any where close to these figures:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-steel/china-aims-to-meet-2020-target-for-steel-capacity-cuts-this-year-warns-on-resumption-idUSKBN1FR10M

China shut down 115 million tonnes of steel capacity between 2016 and 2017, and closed 140 million tonnes of induction furnaces that use scrap metal to make steel.


Analysis: China to continue steel capacity cuts in 2018
Mar 07

https://news.metal.com/newscontent/100784544/analysis%3A-china-to-continue-steel-capacity-cuts-in-2018

China will cut another 30 million mt of steel capacity in 2018 and intensify efforts to liquidate bankruptcies, reorganise so-called ‘zombie firms’, and resettle retrenched workers and debt, Premier Li Keqiang announced at the National People’s Congress on Monday March 5.

China plans to cut steel capacity by 100-150 million mt by 2020

If government help local Long steel makers just to capture market share by another 5% from those import figures of 2,500,000 tonnes per annum for Long steel alone (refer MISIF 2016 chart above), it is like having 3 x (HSR + ECRL) new projects in Malaysia.

That is for the construction companies, not steel.

Posted by davidkkw79 > Jun 1, 2018 11:31 AM | Report Abuse

Where got only 1 % ? At least 60% lar.

That is because the company management felt the stock price are depressed and wanted to give some good news as a catalyst. They can survive without these projects.


Posted by aslm > Jun 1, 2018 11:23 AM | Report Abuse

All the steel companies in their QR prospect said the demand is supported by infrastructure projects. Now you said the so called demand is only 1%? Are you kidding?

Probability is right. I had predicted Q2-17 and Q3-17 EPS correctly based on this assumption.

Q4-17 had deviated significantly from my estimate due to 2 USD/brl refining margin reduction in Q4 compared to Q3, Tax exclusion and maintenance costs.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600153091.jsp

HENGYUAN - Q1 2018 EPS 25 cents
Author: FutureEyes | Publish date: Fri, 6 Apr 2018, 01:36 AM

I will be giving a detail explanation how my Q4 2017 EPS prediction deviated from actual just because of 2 USD/brl error in my refining margin calculation and why i am estimating Q1 2018 EPS as per the title soon........



everything will be backed up with solid evidence



stay tuned.

https://www.shell.com.my/careers/students-and-graduates/scholarships.html

Stairway To Heaven

There's a lady who's sure all that glitters is gold
And she's buying a stairway to heaven
When she gets there she knows, if the stores are all closed
With a word she can get what she came for

And she's buying a stairway to heaven

There's a sign on the wall but she wants to be sure
'Cause you know, sometimes words have two meanings
In the tree by the brook there's a songbird who sings
Sometimes all of our thoughts are misgiven

It makes me wonder
It makes me wonder

There's a feeling I get when I look to the west
And my spirit is crying for leaving
In my thoughts I have seen rings of smoke through the trees
And the voices of those who stand looking

It makes me wonder
It really makes me wonder

And it's whispered that soon, if we all call the tune
Then the piper will lead us to reason
And a new day will dawn for those who stand long
And the forest will echo with laughter

If there's a bustle in your hedgerow
Don't be alarmed now
It's just a spring clean for the may queen
Yes, there are two paths you can go by
But in the long run
There's still time to change the road you're on

And it makes me wonder

Your head is humming and it won't go
In case you don't know
The piper's calling you to join him
Dear lady, can you hear the wind blow
And did you know
Your stairway lies on the whispering wind

And as we wind on down the road
Our shadows taller than our souls
There walks a lady we all know
Who shines white light and wants to show
How everything still turns to gold
And if you listen very hard
The tune will come to you, at last
When all are one and one is all, yeah
To be a rock and not to roll

And she's buying a stairway to heaven

Led Zeppelin - Stairway To Heaven

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9ioyEvdggk

Posted by Alex™ > Feb 23, 2018 03:23 PM | Report Abuse

1222 lot of pot gold parking at 1510 gate ....they say all that glitters is gold =D

Some of the useful links above are placed here again for easier accessibility:


COLUMN-U.S. crude oil exports to Asia soar, complicating OPEC's efforts: Russell

https://www.reuters.com/article/column-russell-crude-asia-idAFL3N1NJ17M

"Imports from Malaysia are up 500 percent, those from Britain by 95 percent and from the Republic of Congo by 459 percent."



COLUMN-Forties pipeline outage is a gift to U.S. oil exporters, others: Russell

https://www.reuters.com/article/column-russell-crude-asia/column-forties-pipeline-outage-is-a-gift-to-u-s-oil-exporters-others-russell-idUSL3N1OC1YP

This widened the premium of front-month Brent over WTI CL-LCO1=R to $6.74 a barrel, up from $4.76 as recently as Nov. 24. The spread is closing in on the $7.07 touched in September when Hurricane Harvey knocked out U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, temporarily cutting crude demand.

The blowout of the Brent-WTI spread in September saw a flood of U.S. crude head toward Asia, with vessel-tracking data showing that top global crude buyer China imported a record 293,000 bpd in November.


Please refer the price difference between Brent and WTI for Q4 2017 as per below:

https://ycharts.com/indicators/brent_wti_spread

Please find my latest article on hengyuan:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600148234.jsp

Please find my latest article on hengyuan:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600148234.jsp

My latest article above - following recent release of PetronM results for Q4 2017.

To have a detail understanding on why Hengyuan differs from PetronM refinery please go through my article below: see the first table deriving their Gross margins:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600146257.jsp

This mainly arise due to the fact that Hengyuan is able to convert Fuel Oil into Diesel.

On Q4 2017, the Fuel Oil price went down significantly and on contrary diesel price went up significantly compared to Brent. This made the difference between Complex refinery like hengyuan versus simple refinery like Petronm amplified (exaggerated) significantly.

This is a very important information presented to i3 members earlier but unfortunately it never came into Top Articles list.

PetronM results reinforces my earnings prediction for Hengyuan.

Once hengyuan results is out, it should cause re-rating.

Please be patient till results of Hengyuan is announced.

Don't miss the Big Picture:

This where the Complex Refiner like Hengyuan will gain edge - European refineries closure will cause significant supply reduction further boosting Asian complex refinery Margins.

.................................................................

In the bigger picture, emission-related regulations for refineries and refined products is expected to increase “noticeably” in the coming decades — but the timing and costs of such regulation will vary considerably between different places, giving an edge for refiners in jurisdictions that are slower to implement such regulations to generate higher operating margins, said Moody’s.

Regardless, as with the scenario in Asia and Middle East, lower-complexity refiners in Europe and US East Cost face the threat of stranded assets amid declining demand for LPV fuels. “These refiners will be forced to become competitive in distant export markets or face the possibility of closure,” said the report.

The plant cost, technology level, and the value addition on products should be higher in sequence as per below:

simple refinery with sweet crude > simple refinery with sour crude > complex refinery with sweet crude > complex refinery with sour crude

There would have been no incentive for petron to have the 88k bpd with sweet crude designed originally to have products meeting IMO 2020 specification back then.

It is still a simple refinery designed for a less demanding task originally.

Unless simple refinery install scrubbers they would not be able to meet the IMO 2020 requirements on fuel oil.

Petron must be thinking far ahead to go for complex refinery all together to support their retail requirements which are mainly petrol and diesel.


Posted by soojinhou > Feb 5, 2018 09:16 AM | Report Abuse

Well, yes and no. Petron's refinery is designed to process sweet and light crude. By definition their raw material has low sulphur content. While I'm not privy to exactly how much sulphur is in their fuel oil, it should be low because the raw material is sweet.

Breakeven crack spread is less than 3USD.

The spread to be used is more on Diesel 50% instead of Gasoline. Gasoline is less than 45% of HY yield.

For HY Gasoline would be represented by Mogas95 instead of Mogas92 which is very strong currently. Both Diesel and Mogas95 spread are very strong in Malaysia.

Relative to China refineries, HY appears damn cheap to China Fund.
The shareholders of HY are no longer the common Malaysian sense.

Q4 earnings seems to be another outstanding performance. Will post my derivation after the month ends.

Well said probability!


Posted by probability > Dec 1, 2017 12:17 PM | Report Abuse

it was a little unclear to me earlier , so i felt like i still had to voice out and fight in i3 to convince others and myself...

but now, things have totally changed...

I have been given ability to predict HY performance...i feel like i can close my and fight.

exactly like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYwdzYC3uUc

Welcome, I am happy for all.

Posted by Pangsh62 > Nov 30, 2017 05:56 PM | Report Abuse

FutureEyes, thank you for your estimation report, very close!

Congrats guys!