Do not need to talk in such a mysterious way to scare people mah.....

Probability,

I read the message i3lurker had highlighted in the public bank report also .

No problem for me to pay some money to buy another 10% of the gold mine.

Dear Sslee,

You had misinterpreted my message again

I am just providing a reminder to talk wisely.
If it can not be said accurately, then at least honestly

My good friend,


Any food overcooked is no more the food you are talking about.

What about IRR 12% to forecast the earning

Then you talked about 25% EQUITY IRR
that sounds so ridiculous to a man has a brain to think

Am I telling lie?

My good friend.

How about the zero book value of the Evolve mall?
No doubt business is bad why add more sugar and make it zero, then negative value
The topic is changed again.

If you see a snake, then just talk about the snake and let us discuss about it

After you had added some legs to it, then the topic has changed

We begin to talk about a snake can have legs or not.

Do you see the picture?

Your situation is something like this

You art an artist, you see another artist drawing a snake. True is a snake but the problem is that you added some legs to the picture

You avoid talking about the snake, you keep talking the snake can have legs also.

Everyone here is Aseng good friends
No reason you can not be my friend

Just talk honestly, what is so difficult?

I seem some improvement in your comment
Do away the part about Aseng, then it is even better.

Do not need to talk about me
Aseng is not listed in Bursa
Just talk honestly
That is good enough
Aseng is a durian man, oil plam man or satay man, has poor English or good English... is not important to anybody here.
Just talk honestly.

You are caught telling lie
Do not create fake news


Posted by i3lurker > May 15, 2020 9:19 PM | Report Abuse

Jaks value is low coz institutionals wun invest.
cash flow problems
lots of issues like imminent RI ~ RM250 million
[PBB stated it inside report]


Posted by DK66 > May 15, 2020 9:50 PM | Report Abuse

Johnmasino, PBB did not mention 250m right issue at all.
16/05/2020 8:46 AM

Do want me to teach you how to talk sensibly and reasonably

II can help you

You are caught telling lie
Do not create fake news


Posted by i3lurker > May 15, 2020 9:19 PM | Report Abuse

Jaks value is low coz institutionals wun invest.
cash flow problems
lots of issues like imminent RI ~ RM250 million
[PBB stated it inside report]


Posted by DK66 > May 15, 2020 9:50 PM | Report Abuse

Johnmasino, PBB did not mention 250m right issue at all.
16/05/2020 8:46 AM

This a warning

Please know the limit

If necessary I will keep on posting the above message to remind the reader after every new comment you make here.

Please talk honestly in the future if you do not what me to do that

I am very free. I like to work as a policeman here more than making money

If necessary I will keep on posting the above message to remind the reader after every new comment you make here.

Please talk honestly in the future if you do not what me to do that

I am very free. I like to work as a policeman than making money

Good morning my good friend


You are caught telling lie
Do not create fake news


Posted by i3lurker > May 15, 2020 9:19 PM | Report Abuse

Jaks value is low coz institutionals wun invest.
cash flow problems
lots of issues like imminent RI ~ RM250 million
[PBB stated it inside report]


Posted by DK66 > May 15, 2020 9:50 PM | Report Abuse

Johnmasino, PBB did not mention 250m right issue at all.

Dear Sslee,

你做对了。

人无完人
再可恨之人也有可爱之处
再可爱之人也有可恨的时候

（ do you mind to translate the Chinese into English.Thank you)


Posted by Sslee > May 15, 2020 7:11 PM | Report Abuse

....... Time past and I have forgive qqq3 as it is not my business to judge qqq3 conduct as he may have his untold story behind his abnormal behavior.

my good friend ,

why you never read a picture as a whole , like to play choose and pick , at the end the whole picture look so different

you should know where is my target?

"some people just like to talk about IRR because it sounds complicated and make them look knowledgeable"

but who know his assumption made is right or wrong , at the end his kindness turned out do more harm than good

you are my good friend , I recommend you to read this one ,it is more reliable


"The most reliable earnings guidance from Vinh Tan 1 power plant_DK66"

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-05-01-story-h1506848575-Jaks_Resources_The_Most_Reliable_Earnings_Guidance_for_JHDP.jsp

my good friend qqq3,

of course ,the impact on EPS is big ,if you compare a business which has borrowing to a business which has borrowing .






qqq33333333 Aseng what the stupid IRR with borrowing and without borrowing lah....
=========

enormous impact on EPS..........
15/05/2020 1:12 PM

what the stupid IRR with borrowing and without borrowing lah....

some people just like to talk because it sound complicated and make them look knowledgeable

what a pitiful investor like most of us ?

seem to know a bit but also not very know a bit

but they claim they are expert woh.....

Aseng not dare to say they are wrong lah....

Aseng can only tell himself

"Vinh Tan 1 and JHDP exhibit extreme high degree of resemblance"

it is unreasonable to say

Vinh Tan1 30% had made RM196 M net income a year, but JHDP can only RM100M a year

a simple common sense

if your neighbor sold his musang king RM 50 a kilo , then it is very stupid to believe the buyer who told you, your musang king is only worth RM10 a kilo .


Posted by DK66 > May 14, 2020 10:53 PM | Report Abuse

Aseng, Vinh Tan 1 spent USD1.75b and JHDP spent USD1.87b but only generate less than half the profit. Resonable ?

This is the first full year operation results of Vinh Tan 1 since commercial operation in November 2018

Net profit after tax for 2019 = RMB1,071m = RM652m (RM/RMB conversion rate of 1.64)

Hence, potential earnings attributable to Jaks

@30% = RM652m x 30% = RM196m = EPS RM0.30

@40% = RM652m x 40% = RM261m = EPS RM0.40

Why compare to Vinh Tan 1 ?

Hai Duong, Vinh Tan 1, and Mong Duong II are all 100% foreign owned power plants in Vietnam operating under 25 years BOT contracts with capacity around 1,200 MW. All their BOT contracts, power purchase agreements, coal supply agreements were signed around 2012.

Vinh Tan 1 is an extremely close model for Jaks Hai Duong power plant because;

Both were awarded by the Vietnam Government around 2011
Both BOT contracts were signed with the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT).
Both are Coal fired power plants costing around US$1.8b
Both around 1,200MW capacity
Both are 100% foreign owned and operated by Chinese corporations
Both are adopting chinese technology
Both under 25 years Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) scheme
Both are guaranteed by Vietnam Government
Both Power purchase agreements signed with EVN
Both coal supply agreements signed with Vinacomin
Both under USD1.4b bank financing
Both under max 18 years loan tenure allowed by Vietnam government
Therefore, Vinh Tan 1 and JHDP should exhibit extreme high resemblance, if not identical.

The most reliable earnings guidance from Vinh Tan 1 power plant_DK66



Peer comparison is the most reliable and convincing method for making earnings forecast if the subject exhibits the following characteristics;

high degree of earnings stability and foreseeability
high degree of resemblance in operating terms and conditions
The higher the similarity between the subjects in comparison, the higher the accuracy of forecast.

I did not say my common sense accept 1B net profit
please do not twist my common sense.



Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

May 14, 2020 6:05 PM | Report Abuse

Aseng very happy to announce that

DK66 's projection of the power plant net profit ,RM196, using relative valuation, is again confirmed fair and reliable

EPS = 30 cents

Big sense or small sense
common or uncommon
it doesn't matter
still can be reconcile as long as
it is not nonsense

I know my common sense
my common sense plays its role after reading reading DK66 report , Iconn8888 report , ehome009 report and Sslee report .

how about your common sense ?
pop from nowhere ?



Posted by huahtai98 > May 15, 2020 10:57 AM | Report Abuse

@Aseng....i agree with you bro....common sense is important and very useful.
JHDP is an RM8 billion investment.
So isn't an annual nett profit of RM1billion a reasonable expectation from an RM8 billion project....common sense....haha.

my good friend,


you are talking something as if you are going to acquire the whole power plant

cukup lah....

I still call you my good friend

I really do not like to exclude you

when I greet every one

"Good morning my good friends "



Posted by qqq33333333 > May 15, 2020 9:53 AM | Report Abuse

plants become less efficient and more maintenance as years go by...so PBB using whole spread sheet is probably better than your constant profit based on year 1.

a simple common sense

if your neighbor sold his musang king RM 50 a kilo , then it is very stupid to believe the buyer told you, yours only worth RM10 a kilo .


Posted by DK66 > May 14, 2020 10:53 PM | Report Abuse

Aseng, Vinh Tan 1 spent USD1.75b and JHDP spent USD1.87b but only generate less than half the profit. Resonable ?

Dear Shan kee how,

I like a simple calculation with minimum assumption
I prefer DK66 relative valuation
It sounds reasonable and reliable to me
I can read DCF and IRR calculation also
it is not too difficult for me to understand
but my mathematics sense does not allow me to feel safe with this model
I am happy to see all the IRR calculation enhances the degree of reliability of DK66 Relative Valuation and I am more confident to rely on it to make my investment decision.

a simple advice to all my good friends here,

before you accept a calculation , it got to get a "pass" from your common sense .




Posted by DK66 > May 14, 2020 10:53 PM | Report Abuse

Aseng, Vinh Tan 1 spent USD1.75b and JHDP spent USD1.87b but only generate less than half the profit. Resonable ?

Dear Sslee,

It is ok to use various techniques to forecast the net profit. In fact it is encouraged to do that
DK66 used relative valuation and come to a figure RM196M, Icon8888 IRR RM200-RM300M,Ehome IRR RM200M and yours RM142M-RM162

And it seems to me you also agree i3lurker and qqq3 IRR 25% EQUITY calculation is baseless and misleading, reasonably it shouldn't appear in your calculation. It serves no purpose to support your valuation based on 2019 AGM forecast.

Good morning my good friends


Posted by Aseng > May 15, 2020 8:27 AM | Report Abuse X

Dear Sslee,

Good morning

I know It is not my job to judge your work is good or bad
Since you begin with such a declaration

"Since I was Business Development Manager before and had work thro’ many project feasibility studies"


It is very dangerous to support your calculation with this news
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/2019-07-08-story2141...

and a challenge to verify the net income with the management during the AGM

Many careless readers will be easily misled into believing your last figure RM77. 61 is the total net profit of the business operation even though after the ammendments and your reminder it is not.

Sorry to tell early in the morning,
Very misleading playing with figures

Dear Sslee,

Good morning

I know It is not my job to judge your work is good or bad
Since you begin with such a declaration

"Since I was Business Development Manager before and had work thro’ many project feasibility studies"


It is very dangerous to support your calculation with this news
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/2019-07-08-story214175.jsp

and a challenge to verify the net income with the management during the AGM

Many careless readers will be easily misled into believing your last figure RM77. 61 is the total net profit of the business operation even though after the ammendments and your reminder it is not.

Sorry to tell early in the morning,
Very misleading playing with figures.

Dear Sslee,

my common sense can not accept your IRR calculation of the total net profit of the power plant .




Posted by DK66 > May 14, 2020 10:36 PM | Report Abuse

Under equity IRR, borrowings are assumed to only generate sufficient to cover interest costs

Posted by DK66 > May 14, 2020 10:30 PM | Report Abuse

Meaning, your borrowing and interest costs will be paid but only your own capital is used to calculate the profit return.


Posted by Aseng > May 14, 2020 10:33 PM | Report Abuse X

where got such a thing ?

loan also can generate profit mah....

DK66,

i got it.

Thank you



Posted by DK66 > May 14, 2020 10:36 PM | Report Abuse

Under equity IRR, borrowings are assumed to only generate sufficient to cover interest costs

DK66,

am I right to say ,

RM 77.61 million is actual net profit calculated from equity
NOT the total net profit of the business operation

Sslee,

Aseng have doubt on your logical thinking now.

reason:

we want total net profit lah....

not net profit from equity ?

very misleading lah....

where got such a thing ?

loan also can generate profit mah....

I understand their stupid calculation now

thank you



Posted by DK66 > May 14, 2020 10:30 PM | Report Abuse

Meaning, your borrowing and interest costs will be paid but only your own capital is used to calculate the profit return.

based on their argument
if they borrow a little , the the net profit is very small

do you agree 77.6M is net profit ?

loan amount does not generate any profit at all ?

can not understand lah.....

死啦。。。。， 搞不明白今晚无法睡。。。。


Base on Equity IRR of 12% on which the 75% loan is taken care of by capacity payment:
Equity USD1870 X 0.25 = USD 467.5 million

ZERO = - 467.5 + A1/(1+0.12) +A2/(1+0.12)^2+……………till A25/(1+0.12)^25

USD 467.5= 7.8431A thus A= USD 59.606 million

Equity payback period of 467.5/59.606= 7.8 years

30% to JAKS = USD 59.606 x 0.3 = USD 17.882

Base on USD: MYR of 4.34: JAKS share of profit RM 17.882 x 4.34= RM 77.61 million.

how about the 75% borrowing ?

doesn't generate any profit at all ?

if no borrowing , then don't need to calculate .

very funny .

can not understand ?

DK66

please help me .



Base on Equity IRR of 12% on which the 75% loan is taken care of by capacity payment:
Equity USD1870 X 0.25 = USD 467.5 million

ZERO = - 467.5 + A1/(1+0.12) +A2/(1+0.12)^2+……………till A25/(1+0.12)^25

USD 467.5= 7.8431A thus A= USD 59.606 million

Equity payback period of 467.5/59.606= 7.8 years

30% to JAKS = USD 59.606 x 0.3 = USD 17.882

Base on USD: MYR of 4.34: JAKS share of profit RM 17.882 x 4.34= RM 77.61 million.

2 simple questions before I say good night and go to bed

1. Can any sifu here kindly enlighten me with some solid facts , how accurate or reliable is IRR analysis to determine the net profit of a power plant ?

2. Relative Valuation and IRR analysis which is more reliable to forecast the net profit of a power plant project ? ( if you have an answer to help me , then please tell me. if you do not have an answer to help me , do not tell me a story ,full of so much unknown and uncertainties, nobody feel safe to accept)

please read my comment with a positive mind, i am not interested to judge whose theory is is right or wrong , I am more interest you to tell me, based on your logical thinking which theory , relative valuation or IRR analysis speak better for the first year , i repeat ,the first year result.

that is good enough for me and I know how to make my investing decision.

good night.
14/05/2020 9:44 PM

very happy right...
keep it up !

加油！

Ehome009,

sorry har ......i did not praise you

you know I don't like IRR calculation

has to be honest mah....

no choice lah....

but

you are truly a good mathematician

honestly speaking your presentation is a complete calculation

Dk66's is just a simplified version

in terms of calculation ,

your is better

But

in terms of the foot notes

DK66

is very much better.



Scoreboard:

Ehome009 =100

DK66 = 100



congratulation.
well done !!!!

Aseng very happy to announce that

DK66 's projection of the power plant net profit ,RM196, using relative valuation, is again confirmed fair and reliable

EPS = 30 cents

what is the fair value ?

Aseng dare not say, nanti you sell your gloves too early to buy Jaks , I kena tiu ....

Ehome009,

i go through your calculation

multiply the left side and right side of the equation by "(1.12)^25" is really a brilliant ideal to solve the summation without using excel spread sheet

you are a mathematics genius

no wonder you are so sharp

you are the first one who notice the mistake in the PBB calculation

very good .

OTB sifu,


这些人没良心啦。。。
讲你骗人。
我早上跟你的 MTAG，
买 0.5
现在赚钱聊咯。。。。

欠你一个人情
有机会碰面的话，
请你吃Durian