HNg33,

today you are a Hero.

you had saved our life from probability wrong assumption

thank you very much

DK66,

certainly I will .



Posted by DK66 > May 7, 2020 12:25 PM | Report Abuse

Seems like Aseng will now apply premium instead of discount to Vinh Tan 1's results.

OTB,

finally we are good friend again.

welcome home .

Hng33,

Sorry har.... I read the first sentence sudah beh-ta-han.
Now I will continue reading
Very very sorry har....

I wish to repeat and reaffirm what I said before.


DK66 peer comparative valuation is true and correct. Icon8888 IRR analysis provided a good reason to support what I said.

A good investor must have the wisdom to tell which calculation is reasonable and reliable.
If not, you better put your money under the pillow.

Do not jump into the conclusion just because Probability told you Hai Dong is subcritical. Probability hasn't proven what he said is right yet and we are so stupid to conclude he is right.

What about OTB said. He told us the IR in the company told him Hai Dong has a better specification than Vinh Tan in the meeting.


DK66 >> If it only costs Vinh Tan 1 USD1.75b to build a supercritical plant, why would JHDP not build a supercritical plant but instead paid USD1.87b to build a subcritical plant ?

WHAT YOU SAY?

The Chinese businessman is stupid or we are stupid?

Please forgive my crude word "stupid"
Just serve to amplify the emotion nothing else.

I like this sentence.
Very honest
Give a big "LIKE"


DK66 >> Wish me luck and don't wish me luck. Haha

1 musang King is better that 100 potatoes

You had already served us more than 10 musang King.

That is more than enough

Over excessive may cause indigestion

My good brother Dk66

I believe the saying
Harmony is more precious than perfection

From my comments you can read I am a fast temper person. I know i am too busy trying to correct other people mistake or action that I find hard to agree. That is my weakness and also my beauty . But I can assure you, I am also the type fast to forgive and forget. Do worry.

HAPPY WESAK DAY.



DK66>> Also, I don't think I will get any response from good people like RangerJ if I m a nasty person and never shared in i3. Am i right, bros ?

Honestly speaking we are wasting to much time talking too much on the topic, energy efficiency, that nobody, of course including probability himself can not provide an accurate answer. But my pitiful brother still trying his best, crack his head, to provide some.

We must be more realistic, not all problem can be solved perfectly, do not demand that, it will kill you.

Probability,

I hope my mathematics sense will help to clear some your doubts and convince you jaks is indeed a good buy at current price.

Good morning my good friend

1. As a smart investor we must have the wisdom to tell which assumptions and calculation is more logical and reasonable.

2. I choose to believe icon8888 regarding the doubt probability had raised up about the impact of the energy efficiency on the hai dong earning presented by DK66 in his peer comparative valuation

3. Based on my mathematical sense, I strongly do not believe agree the theoretical 18% impact on the net profit.

Reason :
1. 80% of the net income is derived from capacity payment (Icon8888)
2. No reason Hai Dong used more money to build a lower grade power plant (Dk66)
3. Higher grade plant will have higher O&M expenses







Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

May 6, 2020 6:32 AM | Report Abuse

I think probability does not yet have a proper understanding of the IPP model.

You don’t actually need to give too much weightage to thermal efficiency etc

As a banker that handles Malakoff when I was working, i have the chance to deeply understand their cash flow and profit (btw, Malakoff auditor and reporting accountant was KPMG). : )

(For your info, Malakoff has 5 IPPs under its wing and I have chance to know all of their details)

In Malakoff IPP case , 80% of the profit is capacity payment, the rest 20% is energy payment

Meaning 80% of the profit is independent of operational cost or electricity production . As Long as you provide the plant at let’s say 95% capacity availability , the customer (government) will pay you in full (that is why it is called Take or Pay). This is called capacity payment. And as mentioned above, it makes up 80% of the profitability

Then there is this thing called energy payment. You sell energy to the customer (in this case , Vietnam government). The more you sell, the more the customer pay you. That is of course the revenue level. As for cost, items beyond the operator’s control such as coal price etc, is cost passed through. The higher the coal price the higher the electricity selling price to the customer and vice versa . However，for items such as salary, chemical, maintenance etc, those are not allowed to be passed through . This is to ensure the operator maintain certain level of efficiency (be thrifty, lean and mean etc)

The energy payment makes up only 20% of profitability

As such, when come to modelling, you don’t really need to care too much about energy payment related profitability . The most important thing is to ensure the plant is able to deliver the capacity availability as stipulated in agreement then you can pocket 80% profitability already

probability's 18% increase in production cost warrants a direct proportional decrease in net earning is definite incorrect , there are many factors that is not easy for an outsider to count without the management guidance
but we wish to know more about the potential earning
although it is impossible to get the 100% accurate figure , a rough figure not far from the true one is still possible. Your recent relative valuation and icon8888 IRR projection is a good one
i strongly believe your recent article of relative valuation is the best methodology and the most reliable one so far , the margin of error is the most 10% . that is already very very very GOOD.

that is why i Include a margin of error of around 50%

DK66 Aseng, you haven't consider the higher O&M costs for supercritical design

here is not primary school mathematics

do not simply hentam

take (icon8888 irr projection + dk66 projection) /2 x ( margin of error about 9%)



Posted by probability > May 6, 2020 9:52 PM | Report Abuse

@Aseng, very fair starting point: 18% higher fuel cost.

I will show how that will impact the bottom line shortly based on DK66's article.

sharifah,

kalau IRR

nanti aku kire ikut icon8888 projected earning

tunggu for my good news





Posted by SarifahSelinder > May 6, 2020 7:33 PM | Report Abuse

Yg ni u kira guna IRR cara mcm mana? Same cara DK66?

DK66,

Any comment on my calculation and assumption
very kindergarten ?

probability ,

this is what i had gathered, a very crude calculation


this is taken from the table you provided .

Power generation cost (US¢/kW) :
Subcritical plant : 4.0- 4.5 , Average=4.25
Supercritical plant : 3.5-3.7 Average =0.65
Difference = 0.65
% = 18%

our argument is based DK66 recent relative valuation
Duration : 1 year
my common sense tell me , 18% more in production cost does not mean a net decrease in net profit in a real situation . it is definitely not a straight line proportional . a discount factor around 40%-60% should be acceptable . this is my own assumption you can have yours, if you can have a more reliable figure , please do not forget to share here and let me know. do not quietly share with your group and leave me out , i will be very unhappy

my discount factor = 50%
production cost different =9%


Adjustment made to DK66 calculation

potential earnings attributable to Jaks

@30% = RM652m x 30% = RM196m x 91%
= RM 178
= EPS RM0.27

conclusion : our first TP of RM2.5 is fair and reasonable



conclusion remark :

all our calculation is just a forecast or rough estimate
do not demand for a accurate figure
a reasonable and logical one is already already good enough


recommendation : GOOD BUY

Probability,
Before Aseng come out with some funny idea or provide some guidance to solve your
please stop disturbing or torture my good brother DK66.

I will try my best to reply you before 11.00pm
Now it is time for dinner and time to play with my grandchild and time to watch TV.

11.00PM I surely will give you a good reply.

Ok?

Still talking about energy efficiency?
Fuel cost.

My pitiful DK66,
Let Aseng go through probability argument tonight, may be I can come with some funny ideas.

Wish me good lucks

BlessedInvestor

1. OTB had stop sharing here any any useful information the earliest time long ago , this a fact everyone long enough here know very well, we want him because his group money can move the price . KYY also did the same . so it is wrong to say we had lost OTB, he had chosen to abandon us .

2. it is my personal view that it is better OTB not to share here since there is a conflict of interest with his subscription business, it is difficult for him to share with us sincerely and honestly like what DK and icon8888 are doing , what more to say at the earliest time .



3. i have no intention to talk bad about anybody , just being honest and tell the truth.



BlessedInvestor >>Once again, thanks those who are willing to share and less personal attack. Pls do not discourage good writter like DK66, Icon8888 to share. We already lost OTB contribution here(I believe OTB return is better than Phillip). Let's not lost more good writers here. This is a good forum

Sslee,

Am really that fearful ?
please kindly enlightened me
i do not wish to continue to behave in a bad way that i myself not aware

thank you.

Dk66,


RangerJ = OTB ?
or
RangerJ = Sslee?

please kindly enlighten us .
if he is OTB, then it will clears my doubts and the misconception of a good man

thank you .

my good friend,

where are you ?

Aseng a satay man also has something sensible to say

where are you hiding ?

everybody is so eager to hear something from you now .




please read my comment in a more positive way
i do not want to be labelled as a trouble maker
i am just being honest
saying what I want
I am encouraging more sifu to share here
my belief is
knowledge is to be shared ,not to sell.

DK66,

do not need to create unnecessary unhappiness for yourself
it is not your job to convince everybody that the facts and figures that you had presented is true and correct , as long as it is reasonable , logical and make sense , it is already good enough.
your job is just to share honestly and truthfully to the best you can
once it is published here , it is subjected to scrutiny or examination of many experts here
so far, I do not see any expert had proven your calculation has doubt ,
the most is that of the probability mentioned about the energy efficiency
icon8888 had already clarified it is covered a big portion by the capacity payment
it is very a very fair and reasonable banker's view
if we want to play safe , just give a reasonable discount factor of around 10%
at the current price level, it is still a big discount to a our first TP of around 2.5

why make our life so difficult ?
why make the readers so confused ?

am I right ?

please kindly correct me if my reasoning is wrong .

thank you.




DK66 >>So far, I have not come up with my own personal estimates of the earnings of JHDP. All my previous evaluation methods including the latest one represent estimates from the application of methodologies nothing of my personal opinion. I have stated clearly the methodologies used, the assumptions made, the potential shortfalls. If one cannot provides a better derivation of estimates but judge my articles by virtual of personal opinion, which is more trustworthy ?

The valuation method itself is not perfect. I cautioned readers to read with care. Maybe some prefer the article is not written at all as some may not posses qualification to make judgement.

Calling too much sharing a sinful act ? I m speechless .............

my good friend ,

where are you ?
when we need you , you can not be found
when there is an opportunity , you never forget to take advantage

my 2 cents view is that a public forum is meant for us to share honestly and sincerely
not for your to promote your scold sheet
not for you to manipulate or cheat




i did not mention any person in particular
if you think i attack you , then it is your problem not mind
i am just telling a general truth

If I were to do, then 10% margin of safety is sufficient. Our fair value of 2.5 is still safe and sound

Dk66,

Very wise and rational
I support your idea because there is some difference in design




DK66//That is why I suggested using "margin of safety" to apply appropriate discount to Vinh Tan 1 results would be a better method compared to trying to make assumptions and adjustments on the earnings which are subject to scrutiny and debates

Sarifah,

Icon8888 pandai sekali kali ini to defend the validity of Dk66 relative valuation.

Tapi some people can't do aything but pandai promote dia punya historical scoresheet.

Aseng tak suka lah such a behaviour lah....

Sarifah,

Mana rakan ku itu yang banyak insider news
Senyap sunyi saja....

Icon8888

What you are saying is exactly what a successful businessman asking. A more sustainable profit.

Your comment is very reasonable and logical.

Very good
Give you a 'like'

As a boss of yourself or your business never waste too much time to dwell with all the the technical thing. Leave it to your engineers . But the wisdom to tell which to accept which not accept is a must.
Think too much and too many premature assumption always a big hindrance to a wise decision

In this case I still strongly support DK66's relative valuation.

Dk66,

I am very happy your latest article still remain the most reliable valuation methogy

Icon8888

Thank your very much
You had clear my doubts

Good. Morning my good friend

Honesty is what Aseng value most

As long as you are honest, do not hide anything from us, you are still my good froend

DK66 I m grateful that you created a new ID just to relay the information to us. Really appreciate that.

Do you have information on the effect of efficiency of power plant on earnings ?

---------------------
RangerJ If I may add, for take or pay PPA, energy charge is usually a pass through, and usually a floor efficiency level binding the IPP. So long as the said floor level is met, no penalty to capacity payment. This is very different from open market PPAs. Thank you





DK66 I m grateful that you created a new ID just to relay the information to us. Really appreciate that.

Do you have information on the effect of efficiency of power plant on earnings ?

---------------------
RangerJ If I may add, for take or pay PPA, energy charge is usually a pass through, and usually a floor efficiency level binding the IPP. So long as the said floor level is met, no penalty to capacity payment. This is very different from open market PPAs. Thank you

good night

let's forget about all the unpleasant people

have a good dream

bye-bye

I also do not understand why so many FFFF

do want to share , then don't share lah

who bother

moreover all the information is stolen from here

still dare to F here F there

my good friends ,

I know the limit
i do not want to spoil the uptrend tomorrow
i will stop here

otb,



honestly speaking i do not expect you can be that contradicting almost amounting to shameless
one moment you said loud and clear you only meet the clerks did not meet Andy Ang, now you said you met Andy Ang but can not share with us what he told you . which is true ? which one is false is up to you to say ah?

OTB,

you had proven yourself a liar again
what securities industry regulations you are talking about
you mean Andy told you something he is not supposed to make public
if that is a case , we can report to SC



Posted by OTB > May 5, 2020 9:49 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by Aseng > May 5, 2020 9:44 PM | Report Abuse

OTB,

do not forget you claim yourself an educated person

why every time you open your mouth you must F people
-----------------------
Ans :
I will continue to f all the liars here including you.
You can say I am an uneducated person.

You do not know anything about securities industry regulations, you simply talk without facts.
I do not want to be a champion here.
I will talk what I like to.
I do not owe anything to anyone here.
I write what I like.

that is what we are very unhappy

you come here to steal all the useful information free of charge to sell to your subscribers but refuse to share with us some useful information from Andy Ang do not forget you are our representative . am i wrong to call you selfish and unethical




Posted by OTB > May 5, 2020 9:36 PM | Report Abuse

I3 is a public forum, when and which article I want to post is my business.
I have no obligation to post everything in I3.

OTB,

do not forget you claim yourself an educated person

why every time you open your mouth you must F people

OTB,

why every time you open your must scold people first ?

so, you had met Andy Ang ,
what did he tell you ?
why did not tell us
you are supposed to be our representative .
again
you had proven yourself not so honest
hide so many thing behind us .




Posted by OTB > May 5, 2020 9:28 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by Aseng > May 5, 2020 7:42 PM | Report Abuse

No wonder Andy Ang not even want to meet
you, not even his senior manager.
-------------
Ans :
You behave like a liar here.
Do I need to tell the world they met me ?

You want to behave like a hero, but you talk nonsense here.

My answer to OTB.

Posted by OTB > May 5, 2020 9:07 PM | Report Abuse
F you. I am very disappointed with you.
Uneducated person.

ASENG: YOU ARE EDUCATED ? WHICH TEACHER TAUGHT YOU WE MUST F PEOPLE FIRST WHEN WE START TALKING


If you cannot understand English, please keep your mouth shut.

ASENG: IF I TALK IN TAMIL , CAN YOU UNDERSTAND ? DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT

I did not tell DK66 to stop.
He has to make a decision to continue or to stop.
If he decided to stop, I hope I can still contact him.
It is what I said.

ASENG : THEN YOUR LANGUAGE IS NOT ACCURATE , WRONG TIMING , WRONG METHOD PLACE

( WHY I AM THAT STUPID TO TEACH YOU SO MANY THING HAR)


There is another ck in I3 previously, who is as good as Dk66, we still contact each other after he stopped.

ASENG : BUT YOU ARE VERY SELFISH, YOU DID NOT SHARE ANYTHING GOOD WITH US . IF YOU BEHAVE AS GOOD AS DK66, I WILL CERTAINLY DO THE SAME , DO NOT LET YOU GO LIKE WHAT I AM DOING NOW

Anyone who attacks DK66, I am the first one come to defend him.
Dk66, am I right to say it ?

ASENG : CUT AND PASTE TO SHOW ME , I WANT TO SEE DID YOU DO IN THE SAME MAGNITUDE AS I AM DOING

for those who can't get it at the lowest price
just cin-cai cin-cai buy some tomorrow
it is not too late
why make your life so difficult
happy make money together
big or small
never mind


Posted by DK66 > May 5, 2020 8:31 PM | Report Abuse

A message to the haters. This article is facts. It is not too late to accept if you can't falsify it.

DK66,


you are right .
you are now the most sought-after writer in i3

no more 50 cents !
they got to pay 1.13 now
common sense tell us they will most probably miss the boat
because now they need more than double the initial courage to buy at a price which is now more than 100% they asked initially.

they are left only 2 options
1. quick,quick buy tomorrow while the price is still relatively low
but they are very reluctant to do
2. chase high during the super bullish uptrend

why they attack DK66?

they want to buy at the lowest at the end missed the boat
they are very disappointed
very angry
they blame DK66 last article had made the price moved up too fast
they are caught in the surprise .




Posted by DK66 > May 5, 2020 8:17 PM | Report Abuse

They are not happy because of my latest article which killed their dream of buying at RM0.50. It is not my article that ruin their plans, it is the facts ! Vinh Tan 1 made so much money you believe this will go unnoticed ?? Many with knowledge of Vinh Tan's results were already buying secretly. I merely unfolded the information for the benefit of the greater public.

OTB,

If you do not like to talk here, then do not come here, nobody stop you

We do not need your fact and data, you keep it to yourself and your own gruop

Is it right to ask DK66 stop now. What about all his previous good efforts ? Throw into a dustbin? Are you not making him a very irresponsible person

When he is under attack where are you?

Why you keep quiet?

Now come and tell as if everybody here owe you a whole world.

You do not even know what you are doing is right or wrong

No wonder Andy Ang not even want to meet
you, not even his senior manager.

Brother DK66,

DO NOT LISTEN TO OTB
HE IS TRYING TO TURN YOU INTO A SELFISH MAN.








OTB// Dear DK66,
I agreed with you.
You feel irritating now.
I was in your shoe before.
In 2015, most of the stocks I recommended went up > 100%.
Some of haters still scold me.

I am not that kind like you.
Any hater or liar, I will f them without hesitation.
I am more than willing to fight them in I3.
I do not give them face at all.

There are many good sifu here, sharing good stuff unselfishly.
They are also under attack.
Try not to spend a lot of time here, many liars here are very selfish.
They will attack you to make them great and get attention.
I will stop posting my article here for a while.
I better focus on my work.

If you decided to stop in I3, please continue to communicate with me.
We can exchange ideas and sharing some information.
You are always very kind to me, I really appreciate your help.

Thank you.

DK66,


Those who attack you are not stupid . They know and agree your article is most probably true, sound very convincing to them also. They can't prove your calculation wrong or has doubt. That is why they can not talk anything about your article, but they can talk a lot of nonsense about you.

If we do not have the brain to see this sort of low class and shameless behaviour of your haters, how can we judge your article is good or bad.

Do not expect anything good from them.
Not everyone is that gentleman like your good brother Aseng especially those who are envy of your talent.

Let's continue to work together, without fear and favour, to bring the price to 2.50 before you say bye-bye to me.

Ok?

DK66,

you should know

1 musang king is more valuable than 100 potatoes

those who attacked still haven't proven they are musang king yet , they still talk like potatoes.

i just don't understand how come your life can be that unpleasant just because of a few potatoes

be happy.

you are somebody not nobody

if you are nobody , your life can be more miserable even nobody attack you