https://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/HPB-Proposed-Acquisition-of-Repsol-Assets-Final.pdf

More than 17,000 boed (including gas) added from Repsol assets.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/repsol-said-be-looking-exit-malaysia
(dated 5-March-21)

“ In February last year, when IHS Markit came out with its article on Repsol’s operations in Malaysia, it had said that the production was between 21,380 boe/d and 24,500 boe/d, and valued it at US$410 million to US$470 million."

Hib acquisition cost is US$212mil.
Brent US$70, Opex +/- US$15/bbl, approx. 20k boed production net to Hib.
It is not difficult to estimate the gross profit.

I guess these Repsol assets will be contributing additional 18k-20k boed (nett) to Hibiscus compared to average daily production of 9k+ boed in FY2020.

https://www.oedigital.com/news/488091-repsol-sells-e-p-assets-in-malaysia-vietnam-to-hibiscus-petroleum

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-25/india-is-said-to-cut-imports-of-iranian-oil-to-zero-in-november-jmhy95z8

Japan, korea etc. stopped Iran crude purchase earlier.

Now Iran 2nd biggest customer, India also joining.
India's import is 577,000boed this year.

PAT 98mil. congrat

Pls take note on Q3 2018 report pg30, oil sold last qtr for NS (under Shell) was around 1 cargo (1 cargo = approx. 300,000 bbl). This coming qtr should have sold at least 2 cargo since good brent price and their built-up inventories.
(note: these oil sold amount presented in last QR is only Hib 50% portion)
Who knows production increase (if any) would be a bonus.

Probably because of Bumi armada's loss of nearly rm600mil in Q2 mainly due to Armada Kraken impairment. Nothing to do with Hib.

"8500x360x7.55x4.10=马币94.7m"

Profit only USD7.55/bbl??
Doesn't make sense.

Is Hrc diesel Euro 5 compliant?
Answer: No

Below extract from hrc website:

"- Euro 5 Gasoil Project:

DOE is mandating Euro 5 gasoil specifications by 1 September 2020. Since our next TA is only planned for 2022, we need to undertake project tie-ins during the upcoming TA2018 window. Front end studies and licensor selection are now in progress to enable the timely identification of tie-in points."

For info, Gasoil = Diesel.

Facts for refinery business in 2018:
1) Low GRM since begining of Q4 2017, no recovery sign yet as of today
2) No inventory gain (very likely inventory loss if crude drops)

Concerns about HRC in near terms:
1) Any unplanned shutdown in Q1 2018? Did someone email to HRC to confirm this like OTB did in 2017?
2) TA2018 in Q3 can be successfully delivered as planned? Unlike TA done earlier, TA2018 involved major packages like E4M integration, Atlas II etc. to be completed.
HRC website: "Any unexpected incident or emergent scope arising during the event could result in an extended shutdown resulting in a financial impact."
3) Updates of E4M's delay? Is the delay manageable or getting worse? Did anyone estimate the loss if HRC need to export their E2M and import E4M for Shell?
HRC website: "This means that the operations and financial performance of HRC would be significantly impacted during the period in which we are unable to produce Euro 4M products post the compliance date."

Expected CAPEX coming soon:
1) CAR
2) E5G
All these info is available at http://hrc.com.my/index.php/the-future-of-hrc/

Based on above, you should understand why only rm0.02 dividend declared in Q4 2017.
I have done my risk assessment. How about u? Or just follow someone blindly?

S-Oil Q4 2017 summary for refining profit (based on refining margin):
Q32017: 336.4- 30 (inv gain) = 306.4 Bil KRW
Q42017: 332.3 - 95 (inv gain) = 237.3 Bil KRW

Refining margin for S-Oil has dropped approx. 22.6% QoQ.

Other factor to be considered is the utilisation/production rate.
In fact, Q3 and Q4 seem not much different for S-Oil.

However, Q4 2017 result for refineries shoud be well supported by the inventory gain due to crude price surge.

Korean SK Innovation Q4 2017 result released on 31th Jan 2018.
Below summary for their Refining business (Figure based on margin excluding inventory etc.):
Q32017: 526.4 Bil KRW
Q42017: 422.7 Bil KRW
In other words, refining margin for SK has dropped approx. 20% QoQ.
Pls note that SK refinery is more complex than Hengyuan.
As per SK QR, Q42017 SGP GRM is USD7.2/bbl.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-loses-early-gains-but-still-well-supported-idUSKBN1F607G

"BMI Research said seasonally high refining run rates from the northern hemisphere winter season were set to fall substantially as the end of winter approaches."

"The so-called crack spread was at $15.65 a barrel as of 6:57 p.m. Seoul time on Wednesday. -Bloomberg"

Diesel crack spread $15.65 as of today.
So high or typo?

https://www.brecorder.com/2018/01/15/392966/asia-distillates-jet-fuel-outright-price-at-over-three-year-high/

Jan 15th 2018

"SINGAPORE: Asia’s jet fuel outright price reached nearly $82 a barrel on Monday, tracking the crude oil price hike.

– This made the current jet fuel price the highest in over three years.

– The high price comes at a time of refinery maintenance in Saudi Arabia and expectations of stronger demand as more people travel due to the upcoming Lunar New Year festive season.

– The 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) Saudi Arabia Total Refining and Petrochemical (SATORP) refinery in Jubail was to carry out maintenance this month."

KEROSENE DEMAND OUTPACES SUPPLY.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/india-needs-600-mmt-refinery-capacity-by-2040-dharmendra-pradhan/articleshow/62487735.cms

India needs 600 MMT refinery capacity by 2040
January 13, 2018

"Oil refining capacity in the country stands at over 247 million ton at present and demand for petro products, which is rising rapidly, will touch 600 million ton by the year 2040,"

"To achieve the target of 600 million ton capacity, it is necessary to add over 20 million ton almost every year, he said. "


NOTE: 20MIL TON PER YEAR = APPROX. 463,000 BARREL OF OIL PER DAY

GRM (Gross Refining Margin) is mainly affected by the following:
a) Refinery complexity (Higher yields for more complex plant)
b) Type of refined products (Crack varies for each products i.e. Diesel, Gasoline, Jetfuel, LPG etc.)
c) Cost of crude (Type of crude spot used i.e. WTI, Dubai, Brent, Tapis, Urals etc.)
d) Hedging policy on crack spread
e) Plant efficiency and reliability
f) Flexibility of crude oil receipt and dispatch of products
g) Fuel losses during manufacturing process and flaring
h) Utilization of own refined fuels for certain process equipment and power generation

GRM might differ enormously for each refineries depend on the criteria above.

Other factors beyond the control of refinery’s owner:
a) Major maintenance of other refineries
b) Fire incidents, natural disasters and weathers
c) Seasonal/irregular rising supply such as inventories pile-up in US (i.e. periodic stockholding build-up in winter as a result from many refineries ramp up production e.g. Marathon Oil and HollyFrontier operated at 102% utilization rate in late 2017), China increased crude oil import and refined products export quota to conclude 2017 and so on.

For refineries (commodities related business), earning prospect shall not be just based on daily GRM fluctuations but the average margin for a certain time of periods i.e. Qtrly, Yearly etc. shall be considered.

In a nutshell, global fuels demand growth (driven by economic growth, population rise etc.) is the key parameter for the long term sustainability of refineries instead of the effects from momentary phenomena.

Note: Above is only my findings and personal opinions. Invest at your own risk. Don’t curse me if there is any mistakes. Thanks.

@whey whey Sorry if i have offended u. Cap letter just to differentiate my opnions n contents of Reuters articles. I learned from some sifu here. Cheers..

https://www.reuters.com/article/asia-refinery-margins/asia-refining-margins-tumble-to-near-6-wk-low-on-crude-price-spike-idUSL3N1CA1EX

OCTOBER 4, 2016 / 3:35 PM

"SINGAPORE, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Asian refining margins have tumbled to their lowest in nearly six weeks after touching a seven-month high in September, hit by a spike in crude prices following OPEC’s decision to curb output.

Singapore refining margins to Dubai crude DUB-SIN-REF had fallen over 34 percent from their September-high to $4.98 per barrel on Oct. 3, their weakest since late August."


http://www.malaya.com.ph/business-news/business/asia-refining-margins-tumble

March 06, 2017

"The overall Singapore refining margin dropped 29 percent on the week to $4.47 a barrel, its lowest since late August." -By Reuters

ABOVE SIMILAR NEWS BY REUTERS ABT ASIAN REFINING MARGIN ON 04TH OCT 2016 AND 06TH MAR 2017. REFINING MARGIN DROPPED TO $4.98 AND $4.47 BUT HRC DELIVERED 69.27 EPS IN Q4 2016 AND 93.16 EPS IN Q1 2017. SO PLS DON'T MISLEAD READERS WITH INFO THAT EVEN U URSELF CANNOT UNDERSTAND. THANKS.

RHB TP for Petronm is RM16.20 based on 12.5PER

Those who linked "oil related" = all OnG companies only proved that they know nothing about the petroleum industry, such as which business will be making good profit and which is still stagnant/worse than earlier when the oil price is recovering/collapsing.

Below brief descriptions of some OnG players in Msia:
a) Downstream:
HengYuan- Refinery
Petronm- Refinery, Retailing/Marketing
Petdag- Retailing/Marketing
LCtitan- Petrochem

b) Upstream:
UMWOG- Jackup rigs/Well services
Sapura- EPCC/Fabricator, TAD rigs/Well services, T&I, PSC/RSC operator
Armada- FPSO, OSV, T&I
Yinson- FPSO
Hibiscus- PSC operator
MMHE- EPCC/Fabricator
EATech- FPSO, OSV, Oil Tanker
and so on...

Which is which? Study yourself rather than wasting time shouting nonsense in the air.
Google it if you cannot understand the industrial terminology above.

https://www.reuters.com/article/oil-prices-kemp/rpt-column-hedge-funds-build-record-long-position-in-heating-oil-and-diesel-kemp-idUSL8N1P33XA

JANUARY 9, 2018

"Distillate consumption, which is closely linked to industrial activity and freight movements, is growing rapidly as a result of the synchronised global economic expansion and faster growth in world trade.

At the same time, refiners are struggling to make enough to meet demand. U.S. distillate stocks fell by 24 million barrels over the course of 2017, the largest annual drawdown for at least a decade.

Exceptionally cold weather across the major population centres of the central and eastern United States since the start of the year has boosted consumption of heating oil and threatens to draw down stocks even further.

The most intense cold is concentrated in parts of the northern and northeastern United States that rely most heavily on heating oil to warm homes and offices and as an auxiliary fuel for power stations.

The winter heating season has not yet reached the half-way point in the United States and already heating demand has been much higher than in the two previous years, though still slightly below the long-term average.

Even before the recent burst of cold weather, U.S. stocks of distillate fuel oil had fallen below the 10-year seasonal average.

Distillate stocks therefore start the new year in a depleted state and likely to tighten further if industrial activity and global freight movements continue to rise."

Happy birthday, Mr. Koon.

Sgp U92 JAN crack spread dropped in the first week of 2018 should be short lived due to:
a) US gasoline and distillate inventories up sharply
- result from refineries pump up their production to 96.7%.
- inventory rise is normal every year end as refineries need to increase the storage of refined product to cater the expected high consumption in winter.
- refineries process high volume of crude into products during year end is a norm as they have the incentives to run down stocks to avoid tax payments, which are based on the level of crude oil stocks at year end. Conversely, US crude inventories drawdown sharply in the past few weeks.

Refining margin is still promising in 2018 mainly because of the demands in developing countries such as China and India.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3321068-u-s-energy-infrastructure-faces-challenge-winter-storm
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-energy/winter-storm-challenges-us-east-coast-energy-complex-idUSKBN1ES1MS

After Harvey hurricane, now winter storm for the coming months.
Heating demand record high, some refineries shut down etc.
Demand of refined product shoot up again?

2.5hrs more bursa will be closing for 2017.

Data for HengYuan q4 2017 still intact as of now:
a) Brent: >USD66
b) U92 Crack spread: >USD9

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/api-petroleum-demand-last-month-highest-for-november-since-2007/

"Total petroleum deliveries in November rose to 19.9 million barrels per day. This was the strongest November monthly demand since 2007."

"With sustained strength in the U.S. and global economies, petroleum demand remained strong despite higher prices than last year, said API Chief Economist Dean Forema"

http://www.channel8news.sg/news8/singapore/20171210-sg-bukom-fire/3907462.html

Pls check the video footage in the link. The plant should be quite severely damaged.
Expected crack spread to spike temporarily.

www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/fire-breaks-out-at-shell-s-pulau-bukom-unit-no-injuries-reported-9486120

"SINGAPORE: A fire broke out on Sunday (Dec 10) at a Shell facility in Pulau Bukom at about 10am"

Crack spread surge?

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/08/oil-hungry-china-imported-record-levels-of-us-crude-in-november.html

"Refinery activity in China is healthy, demand is "decent," and refining margins are "phenomenal" thanks to tight supplies of diesel"

Update:
Sgp Ron92 crack spread above usd10 again

http://gulfnews.com/business/analysis/oil-producers-take-refineries-closer-to-consumers-1.1992334

"Malaysia is an oil producing country with modest reserves of 3.6 billion barrels and production of 693,000 barrels a day in 2015. Its domestic consumption is 831,000 barrels a day and refinery capacity is only 612,000 barrels a day. With Malaysia a net oil and product importing country, RAPID would go a long way in supplying the domestic market and exporting surplus products when it goes on stream in 2019."

https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/singapore/analysis-singapore-cant-afford-to-let-oil-exports-27775455

"Singapore has a total refining capacity of 1.38 million b/d "
"Singapore's refining capacity compares with domestic consumption of around 200,000 b/d, which leaves the refiners at the mercy of the export market."

Msia refineries NAMEPLATE capacity (as per Wikipedia):
1) Melaka refinery I : 100,000 boe/d
2) Melaka refinery II : 170,000 boe/d
3) Kertih refinery. : 40,000 boe/d
4) HengYuan PD : 156,000 boe/d
5) Petronm PD. : 88,000 boe/d
6) Kemaman refinery : 30,000 boe/d
_______________
Total : 584,000 boe/d

Actual production: 467,200 boe/d
Note: Assume 80% (very optimistic) utilization of nameplate capacity.

Msia oil consumption in 2016: 829,000 boe/d

There is a huge shortage in local refinery supplies to meet the demand.
Therefore, the delta quantity are imported from oversea i.e. Singapore etc.
Sgp refineries (Exxon Jurong, Shell Bukom, SRC Jurong) produce 1,395,000 boe/d of fuels which is much higher than Sgp consumption. They rely heavily on oversea markets.

I guess Petronas realized above scenario and launched the RAPID project.
Even though RAPID 300,000 boe/d refinery online in 2019, the actual production is still lagging the demand.
Sgp refineries will be severely affected but not the refineries in Msia.

To be precise, rm700mil is for two different projects:
1) Euro 4 Mogas- rm590mil
2) Atlas 2- RM110mil

Note: Atlas 2 is to replace their LRCC dome and catalyst separation system of the regenerator reactor due to end of life of equipment. Dont mix the 2 projects together.

On top of this, how could you add the RM1.757bil debt in project capex estimated by Shell earlier?

http://m.thesundaily.my/node/454536

"The first project, estimated to cost US$135 million (RM590 million), will allow the refinery to economically produce Euro 4M Mogas (motor vehicle gas).

The plant will use a combination of hydro-processing and liquid-liquid extraction technology which has been applied successfully by licensors in various operating plants, including Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co Ltd in its Shandong-based refinery and chemical complex that produces Euro 6 grade Mogas."

Remarks:
Capex for the Euro 4M project reduced massively (compared with Shell initial estimation) is due to the technology used. If you have experience in OnG projects, you will understand why project capex especially for big players is always much more costly. Probably because of their unnecessary "gold-plated" equipment specifications.

Please take note Hengyuan Shandong has been producing Euro 6 Mogas rather than the Euro 4 Mogas to be implemented in PD plant.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/nestle-press-metal-be-added-fbm-klci-list-component-stocks

"The new additions for the Mid 70 index are BAT, IJM Corp, Westports, Gas Malaysia Bhd, Hengyuan Refining Company Bhd, Lafarge Malaysia Bhd and Lotte Chemical Titan Holding Bhd."

Awesome.
Q1 2017: RM279mil
Q2 2017: RM84mil
Q3 2017: RM361mil

In line with regional refineries performance.

Congrats all.
Thanks to all the Commanders for the fantastic victory against stubborn enemies.
Hengyuan is back to the glorious era which deserved to be better than Shell in the past.

Enjoy your long weekend!

http://www.orientaldaily.com.my/s/222103

"本週四（30日）馬股將會有2項重大事件，其一是MSCI指數的調整活動；另外則是森那美（SIME，4197）的分拆上市。MIDF分析員認為，這2大事件將左右大馬股市投資情緒。"

"MSCI指數過去3次的調整，即去年5月杪、11月杪和今年5月杪，大馬股市的成交值和成交量，都呈現暴增的現象。"

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/asia-supply-shortfall-lifts-diesel-spreads-in-2018/

"Asia Supply Shortfall Lifts Diesel Spreads in 2018"

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/11/20/saipem-wins-5-42bn-contract-for-zabazaba-etan-devt-project-in-opl-245/

ENI's zaba zaba fpso awarded to Saipem.

https://investor.thaioilgroup.com/newsroom_set.html

Thai Oil net profit 2017:
Q1: 7,074,504 baht
Q2: 3,249,535 baht
Q3: 7,605,428 baht

Most of the refineries in this region are having the same trend in 2017.

http://www.sprc.co.th/en/news/businessnews_31.ashx
http://sprc.listedcompany.com/financials.html

Refining earning:
2017Q3: USD84mil
2017Q2: USD17mil
2017Q1: USD82mil

Did you manage to see the earning trend of each qtrs?

SPRC is 60% owned by Chevron.
Rated capacity 165kbpd, production 130kbpd.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/hollyfrontier-hfc-tops-earnings-revenue-estimates-in-q3-cm871954

"Strong results were driven by refining margins"
"Net income from the Refining segment - which is the main contributor to HollyFrontier earnings - was $408.7 million, surging a whopping 238%"

Their official qr announced on 1st Nov. Old but worth for sharing

https://www.reuters.com/article/repsol-results/update-1-repsol-profit-leaps-on-refining-and-crude-price-gains-idUSL8N1N91B2

"Repsol profit leaps on REFINING and crude price gains"

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/exxon-says-fire-contained-at-baton-rouge-la-refinery-20171101-00702

"The 210,000-bpd crude section of the refinery, Pipestill 10, was shut down following the incident"

www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-energy-iea/iea-sees-southeast-asia-oil-demand-growing-until-at-least-2040-idUSKBN1CT03R

Unfortunately, nobody agreed with my concerns about hedging earlier.

FACTS:
https://www.eia.gov/state/analysis.php?sid=FL
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_cap1_dcu_SFL_a.htm
Refinery in Florida is ZERO, crude production is 6,000barrels as per EIA (most reliable data for US petroleum industry).
However, Florida is one of the 5 largest oil consumption state in US, leading by transportation consumption.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Hurricane-Irma-Could-Destroy-Oil-Demand.html
Plenty of crude supply in US post Harvey, but the huge consumption in Florida is disrupted due to Irma.