Atlas II project is to replace the broken parts in the LRCCU.
Two of these major projects announced recently will not have any effect to the existing design capacity of the refinery.
Likely to have only slight improvement in LRCCU efficiency after the project.

For information:
Euro 4M project will not increase the plant capacity in technical perspective.
It is only a 'desulfurization' process skid to be added to existing crude distillers/LRCCU to further reduce the sulfur content of the Euro II mogas processing now.
This is just to meet the regulatory requirement of lower emission in term of ppm.

http://www.dezhou.gov.cn/n19466299/n20143156/n20230378/n20231540/n20231620/n20231622/c29212706/content.html
HRC's parent company is shifting the entire plant in Shandong to new location.
Capex RMB6bil.

Good to see margin soars. Good news for refineries.
But please remember the key word "crack hedging".

Some assumptions are over optimistic.
For example, crack spread $10 for overall 'refinery gross margin'? Do u know about hedging of 'crack spread/margin'? If HY has hedging policy, what price HY hedged their margin, how many % of refined products they hedged?
Let say HY hedged at $x.xx, whatever rocketed high margin (above this hedged $x.xx) due to Harvey in GoM, China refinery fire, Shell Pernis fire, Indonesia refineries shut down etc. is irrelevant to HY earnings.

Unplanned maintenance could happen anytime for an old refinery. Please take note the existing problems highlighted in 2016 AR for their LRCCU and one of the big project (Atlas 2) during 2018 Shutdown is to replace the major components in LRCCU. Nobody can guarantee this process unit can run smoothly with expected throughput until 2018. Maybe Probability can tell about the drawbacks if the unit is down for unknown days from his chemical engineering knowledge.

Many shouting crack spread record high, eaten PetDag market share etc. Why profit from operation not explosive? PAT up due to sale of land~ Omg

Inventory gain and loss is not neccessary a zero sum. It should be based on which day and what price refinery buy crude and what price they lock their products. When crude fluactuates up and down, inventory gain= buy low sell high, inventory loss= buy high sell low. Both scenarios are possible for refinery without hedging.

-Davidslim-
Yes. Inventories include crude oil and refined products. When current crude price i.e. Brent drops, both the 'value' of crude and refined product held by refinery will drop parallelly in response to crude price (provided margin remained the same). U only need to know the 'delta' of purchased crude and inventories to figure out the inventory loss. So estimating inventory loss by assuming all stockholdings as crude in FutureEyes' research should be valid.

Q2 inventory loss can be recovered in q3? Nobody can guarantee. How well the crude oil will perform in Aug & Sept still unknown. And nobody knows which day exactly HRC place order for crude. Buy high sell low is very likely, everythg depends on how good are HRC crude experts. Also, pls take note HRC has no hedging as of today. For inventory loss, u may go through Shell previous reports, it is possible inventory loss can wipe out all your margin when crude up/down tremendously. It is not as simple as just minus crude price at end of the mth/qtr with early of the mth/qtr. Anyway, counting down remaining +/-10 trading days for Q2. Good lucks!

Usd11.50 is only the margin for Ron92 alone and that is Sgp benchmark. Similar with crude oil benchmarks i.e. WTI, Brent, Tapis etc., all having different prices. Overall refinery margin cannot just based on Ron92 margin since each refinery produces variety of products, some products high margin and some very low margin. Also, margin should also take into account of Cracking facility/ technology used in the plant. Not all refineries will enjoy the same margin. Higher the technology, more refined products can be extracted from each bbl of crude oil.
Any sifu pls correct me if i m wrong.

"45days shutdown + 15days start up time"?!
Additional 15days for startup? Ridiculous.
45days=shutdown + start up?
If just a routine Turnaround for regulatory endorsement + minor work for equipment replacements + minor modifications etc., how significant cost do u expected?

Only refinery in Ph shut down 45days or 0.5 qtr. But all petrol stations still in operation.
How come earning drop half?
All Petron refineries and petrol stations in Ph n PD closed shop for 45days? Lol
Could somebody split the earnings for each segments then only make conclusion?
Also, Ang's statement earlier this yr said planned TA is 30 to 35days only, 45days means delay?!

Post removed.Why?

http://www.enquest.com/media-centre/press-releases/2017/26-06-2017.aspx
Kraken achieved first oil on 23th June 2017!

Kraken first oil?

Armada Kraken first oil date according to contract has expired on 1st April but still no announcement from Bumi to date.
Again hiding somethings??
Rumor saying Enquest want to buy over the FPSO??
Good or bad to Armada if Enquest has this idea and the first oil date in the lease contract expired

For sharing
http://m.offshoreenergytoday.com/#newsitem-227952

Below some findings just for sharing:
1) Enquest
Enquest share price doubled maybe not because of sailaway of Armada Kraken
http://www.enquest.com/media-centre/press-releases/2016/20-11-2016.aspx
- SCOLTY/CRATHES field achieves first oil on 21st Nov 2016 (almost same time with Armada Kraken sailaway).
- SCOLTY/CRATHES peak production is 10,000boepd. Enquest holds 50% stake. Enquest average total oil production is 40,857boepd in first 10 mths of 2016 and 36,567boepd in 2015.

Enquest considered to sell 20% Kraken stake in July-Sept 2016.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-15/enquest-says-talks-end-to-sell-20-of-north-sea-field-to-delek

2) Armada Kraken location
http://inchcape.ship2report.com/
11th Jan 2017, reported In Port of Botlek, Netherlands (Rotterdam)
- This FPSO supposed to en-route to North Sea but at Keppel Verolme yard now (for rectification work?).
- This multi-billion project could have big impact to BA if anything goes wrong.

3) Armada Claire
- Could be slim chance for BA to claim anything from Woodside.
- FPSO met the contract up-time? Water injection system no technical problem at site?
If really BA wins, it will take long time to end this lawsuit.

4) FSU/FSRU
- Only one FSU for Malta at the moment.
- Rate will not be high for FSU compare to FPSO.

5) OSV
- Low utilization rate due to low offshore activities by PSC companies.

*Caution*
Confirmed Armada Kraken is at Keppel Verolme, Rotterdam now to complete the unfinished work. Will be there for 3 to 4 months as planned or longer?
Radar off since 03 Jan to hide the exact location?
https://www.vesselfinder.com/?mmsi=566489000.

Armada kraken will be stuck at Rotterdam port for 3-4 months instead of hooking up offshore north sea now?