Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2017-11-30 22:08 | Report Abuse

Fair comment, like!!

Posted by probability > 2017-11-30 22:10 | Report Abuse

they have yet to capture fully the present market margins..by Q4 they should be able to

Posted by apolloang > 2017-11-30 22:31 | Report Abuse

the profit looks very rosy for this year but next year will be it more better? after kyy sell off he will say this.

Posted by probability > 2017-11-30 22:35 | Report Abuse

rosy is for sense of smell..not for sight used for profit which is directly seen-visible

kyy affecting HY share price? kikiki

Posted by eng123 > 2017-11-30 22:41 | Report Abuse

forex gain likely from retranslation of USD loan?

Posted by Lau333 > 2017-11-30 22:54 | Report Abuse

Refer to Note A17 of the report,
“..Following the change of its functional currency from Ringgit Malaysia to the US Dollar, the Company’s exposure to foreign currencies is now limited to financial assets and liabilities that are denominated in currencies other than the US Dollar.  The USD denominated term loans are no longer exposed to foreign currency fluctuations.”
 
Any gain or loss will be captured under the comprehensive income.

Posted by apolloang > 2017-11-30 23:00 | Report Abuse

shell cannot perform so well for so many years,hengyuan not even 1 year profit so good,what a miracle.

Posted by apolloang > 2017-11-30 23:02 | Report Abuse

hengyuan profit so good can declare special dividend of 1.00 or 2.00?

Posted by probability > 2017-11-30 23:30 | Report Abuse

cant agree more from Raider!

Posted by stockraider > Nov 30, 2017 11:25 PM | Report Abuse

Hengyuan: 9 things from the 3rd quarter results
Author: Lau333 | Publish date: Thu, 30 Nov 2017, 10:02 PM

1. Recorded highest ever quarterly profit of RM361.8m, up +574.4% YoY and +328.6% QoQ. TTM PE is only 3.4 vs PE 7.5 for PETRONM vs PE 20 for PETDAG

2. Cash continue piling up with both cash & fd at RM897.8m, up RM154.2m (or roughly 50.0 sen per share) QoQ. Cash generated from operation is even higher at RM212.6m. Net gearing at 30.9% is below the level 39.2% when PETRONM resumes paying dividend (2015) and far fellow 67.6% when Hengyuan (Shell then) last paid dividend (2012). HOWEVER HRC DUE TO SPEND RM 700M FOR A EURO 5 UPGRADE, THUS RESUMING PAYING OF DIVIDEND WILL ONLY BE EXPECTED IN 2008/2009 ONWARDS LOH.!

3. Backward calculation after deducting stockholding gain of US$2.64 indicates refinery margin around US$7.53, which is much lower than average crack margin as indicated by Singapore Mogas 92 Unleaded Brent Crack Spread Future of ~$10.00-11.00. U MUST BEAR IN MIND THAT THE USD 7.53 CRACK REPRESENT A 9 MTHS AVERAGE, WHEREAS THE CRACK SPREAD USD 10 TO 11 REPRESENT THE LATEST Q3 AVERAGE SPREAD MAH...!! THUS IN A WAY NOT SO COMPARABLE LOH.

4. Lower than expected sales volume of 10.0m bbls vs max 10.8m bbls (June 2015), possibly indicating Hengyuan has yet to achieve optimum production level as under Shell. PENDING ON THE UPGRADES HENGYUAN MAYBE ABLE TO RAMP UP TO ITS MAXIMUM RATED REFINERY CAPACITY OF 155K bpd.

5. Inventories up +11.5% to RM1.26b vs RM1.13b QoQ vs Brent oil price +9.6% to US$53.66 from US$48.96, a good sign indicating possible inventories volume levelling off. Record level of inventories if realized will be good enough to pay >90% of all debt!! U WILL NOTICE UNLIKE PETRON WHICH HAD DRAW DOWN ITS INVENTORY TO CONVERT TO CASH, HENGYUAN HAS BEEN AGGRESSIVELY INCREASING ITS STOCK HOLDING, TO BUILD UP STRONG BUFFER STOCK TO BE ABLE TO COVER ITS STATUTORY SHUTDOWN AT THE SAME TIME STILL HAVE PRODUCT TO SELL AND MAKE A PROFIT LOH..!

6. There is a surprise foreign exchange gain of RM49.5m (net realized and unrealized gain). USD/MYR trending in same direction but resulted in difference outcome. Consider this,
In 2Q2017 QoQ comparison, “...minor turnaround maintenance costs and foreign currency loss as RM gradually strengthened against USD during Q2 2017”.
In 3Q2017 QoQ comparison, “..Gain on foreign currency exchange recognized in the current quarter resulting from the strengthening of RM against the USD provided further uplift to the current quarter’s results”.
Further. In 3Q2017 YoY comparison, “..foreign currency exchange gains arising from RM denominated revenues as RM strengthened against USD”.
Given the rather substantial forex gain, could it be that Hengyuan is switching sales to domestic clients from USD to MYR? (USD:MYR Q1: 4.4265; Q2: 4.2910; Q3: 4.2275 (All are based on quarter ending figure as published by BNM)). RAIDER SAY THE FOREX GAIN IS DUE TO HRC FULLY SWITCH IS RM LOAN TO USD LOAN, THUS STRENGTHENING OF RM IS BENEFICIAL TO HRC
7. Hengyuan has entered refining margin hedges, which may limit refining margin volatility but also put ceiling to potential profit from refining margin expansion.

8. Potential orange warning: “A delay in the planned completion of the Euro4M Mogas project due to the longer than expected duration to fabricate the main equipment”. The implementation date of Euro4M gasoline specification is 1st October 2018, ACTUALLY TRY TO COINCIDE THE UPGRADE WITH STATUTORY SHUTDOWN TO MAXIMISE EFFICIENCY DURING DOWNTIME LOH.

9. “The Company continues to prepare for a planned major statutory turnaround scheduled to be carried out in the third quarter next year, as detailed in our last Annual Report. This major turnaround is planned to take approximately 1.5 TO 2.5 months”. 3Q 2018 revenue will be atrocious due to this. PLEASE NOTE THE STATUTORY SHUTDOWN IS USUALLY 1.5 MTHS, THE EXTRA 1 MTHS IS TO COVER FOR THE EXTRA TIME FOR THE UPGRADE.

The long awaited 3rd quarter results is finally out. Hengyuan indeed has delivered a stellar quarterly performance with a record profit-how will the market react to this? IT IS ANTICIPATED Q4 TO DO SIMILIARLY DO WELL, IN VIEW OF THE STRONG CRACK.

Posted by russelbin > 2017-12-01 11:13 | Report Abuse

shell cannot perform so well for so many years,hengyuan not even 1 year profit so good,what a miracle. ??

Posted by teoct > 2017-12-01 15:53 | Report Abuse

Miracle performed by Chinese investor - this is too shortsighted/narrow a view. It was a timing issue. The long period of high oil price before the plunge from mid-2014 caused demand to sag and coupled with new refineries coming on during that period, caused too much supply of refined products chasing ever dwindling demand. This led to multi-years of losses (from 2011 to 2014), hence, majors (Shell, Exxon, etc) wanting to get out of the refining business.

This caused the big major to reduce production of refined products (i.e. mothball/shutdown some refineries and reduced maintenance from 2012 onward). In 2017, hurricanes (US 20+%refineries shutdown and some flooded), fires (in Europe) followed by major maintenance (US after flooding), all leading to lower supply.

Meanwhile, the low oil price since mid 2014 have caused demand to increase.

Supply down, demand up, the price of refined product skyrocketed.

That is why Hengyuan (and most refineries) making so much money, luck, or maybe they have better foresight than the majors (Shell, Exxon, etc), more LUCK in my humble view.

Come 2018, 3rd quarter will be a bad quarter as there will be a shutdown for about 2.5 months. This is mandatory (required by law for inspection to ensure that equipment remain safe for operation to continue and the upgrade to Euro4M). And there could be surprises (un-planned maintenance as the refinery has been running almost full, and the newly installed equipment for EURO 4M could have hiccup during run in).

So market may have factored this in, that is why lower PE. On top of this there probably some new refineries (elsewhere in the world) coming on-stream in 2018, thus increasing supply. With crude oil price appearing to rise in 2018, demand growth could start to slow and demand plateau. More supply chasing almost same demand; All this would lead to lower price for refined products.

Hengyuan will still make money but less than 2017 for sure.

Have a nice weekend.

Posted by stockraider > 2017-12-01 16:11 | Report Abuse

ACTUALLY IN A WAY, IT IS A MIRACLE LOH....!!
THE CHINESE ONLY NEED RM 700 MILLION TO UPGRADE HENGYUAN 125K bpd REFINERY WHEREAS BASING ON SHELL INTERNAL ESTIMATES IT WAS, RM 3.0 BILLION LOH....!!

PETRON NEED TO SPEND RM 6.4 BILLION TO UPGRADE ITS 60K BPD REFINERY TO 120K BPD LOH...!!

IN A WAY THE CHINESE OWNER PERFORM MIRACLE USING MUCH LESS CAPEX MAH...!!

Posted by OrlandoOIL > 2017-12-01 17:45 | Report Abuse

Doing 3b job w 900m? Hope really miracle not cut corner Hope refinery won't blow up one day later

Posted by InsiderR > 2017-12-01 23:17 | Report Abuse

http://m.thesundaily.my/node/454536

"The first project, estimated to cost US$135 million (RM590 million), will allow the refinery to economically produce Euro 4M Mogas (motor vehicle gas).

The plant will use a combination of hydro-processing and liquid-liquid extraction technology which has been applied successfully by licensors in various operating plants, including Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co Ltd in its Shandong-based refinery and chemical complex that produces Euro 6 grade Mogas."

Remarks:
Capex for the Euro 4M project reduced massively (compared with Shell initial estimation) is due to the technology used. If you have experience in OnG projects, you will understand why project capex especially for big players is always much more costly. Probably because of their unnecessary "gold-plated" equipment specifications.

Please take note Hengyuan Shandong has been producing Euro 6 Mogas rather than the Euro 4 Mogas to be implemented in PD plant.

Posted by teoct > 2017-12-01 23:24 | Report Abuse

PETRON estimated cost to upgrade the SIMPLE 60k BPD refinery to a COMPLEX 120k BPD refinery for about RM6.4B may not be too high. Beside Petron costing cannot be compared with the RM700m Euro4M upgrade as they are totally different.

The internal estimate of RM3B quoted, is arrived as follows:

FY2014 - debt was RM 1.757B (gearing 84%)
upgrade to EURO4M is RM700M (to be implemented by 2018 1st Oct)
upgrade to EURO5 is RM500M (to be implemented by 2020)
Total RM2.957B i.e. RM3B.

Back in 2013 and 2014, with the mandated (compulsory) implementation of EURO4M and EURO5, Shell concluded, with then prevailing economic condition, the risk too much/high.

It is no miracle, just timing and LUCK. And to entice Shandong Hengyuan, the selling price was only about RM2.0 per share + HY had to refinance the RM 1.7B loan (basically become guarantor with Shell exit)

From the above, it can be seen that foresight and with timing, luck come along.

So looking towards 2018, 2019 and 2020, assuming everything remains unchanged, of course HY going to make superb profit (& cashflow). BUT economy is not like this, oil price might rise causing chain reaction that may bring back the environment similar to 2011 to 1H2014. More new/upgraded refineries increasing supply, etc, etc, 2018 is cloudy and 2019 even more cloudy.

Enjoy the run up for now and have a nice weekend.

Posted by teoct > 2017-12-01 23:46 | Report Abuse

InsiderR, it would be Shell is tied to certain technology as Shell (pioneer refinery business) probably co-finance the development of that technology for Euro4M and Euro5 and not forgetting estimate was made during high oil price environment. Price now should be 15 to 25% cheaper.

Nevertheless, Shell then had cold feet (sold many refineries assets around 2015/2016 not only Malaysia) but now very bullish on refinery business base on their announcement to bring back the cracker in US.

Perseverance was missing in SHELL.

As investor, perseverance is important to determine the correct facts, then direction (up or down) is known.

Posted by probability > 2017-12-02 00:02 | Report Abuse

teoct comparison is flawed.

If HY reduced its Inventory to its norm of last 5 years or more ~ 800M, its exactly in Net cash position as Petron is. Meaning their status exactly similar in terms of Balance sheet now.

Now, on future cash generation potential and cash out flow:

PetronM needs to fork out 6.4 Billion + 6 years idle time before it can commercially generate Cash. And it will lose out 50% of its current cash generation potential to just 400M a year.

While HY is generating cash to cover the total capex in 3 years time in a single year, i.e 1.2 Billion a year.
This is 3 x 400M of PetronM cash generation.

And HY would have minted enough to cash in the remaining 5 years for a new investment of 6.5 B.

HY mcap simply needs to be sized 3 times of PetronM. If no luck & foresight in the improving global refining margin, at least double the size immediately.

Posted by bongjf > 2017-12-02 08:36 | Report Abuse

With all these comments and analysis, my conclusion is coming Monday, HENGYUAN Share price should limit up and double in a short period of time. so still not to BUY?

Posted by InsiderR > 2017-12-02 12:35 | Report Abuse

To be precise, rm700mil is for two different projects:
1) Euro 4 Mogas- rm590mil
2) Atlas 2- RM110mil

Note: Atlas 2 is to replace their LRCC dome and catalyst separation system of the regenerator reactor due to end of life of equipment. Dont mix the 2 projects together.

On top of this, how could you add the RM1.757bil debt in project capex estimated by Shell earlier?

Posted by cheoky > 2017-12-02 12:54 | Report Abuse

revealing miss universal in the town wearing red clothes

Posted by stockraider > 2017-12-02 13:11 | Report Abuse

CORRECTLOH....!!

CHINAMAN CAPEX IS RM 700M WILL DO THE JOB FOR HENGYUAN, COMPARE TO THE FORMER OWNER SHELL INTERNAL ESTIMATES OF RM 3.00 BILLION CAPEX LOH..!!

THE EXTRA DEBT OF RM 1.75 BILLION ARE SEPARATE REQUIREMENT TO SUPPORT HENGYUAN EXISTING DEBTS THRU REFINANCING BCOS OF THE TAKEOVER MAH...!!

Posted by InsiderR > Dec 2, 2017 12:35 PM | Report Abuse

To be precise, rm700mil is for two different projects:
1) Euro 4 Mogas- rm590mil
2) Atlas 2- RM110mil

Note: Atlas 2 is to replace their LRCC dome and catalyst separation system of the regenerator reactor due to end of life of equipment. Dont mix the 2 projects together.

On top of this, how could you add the RM1.757bil debt in project capex estimated by Shell earlier?

Posted by stockraider > 2017-12-02 13:48 | Report Abuse

Hengyuan is damn cheap based on PE as well as replacement value approach loh...!!

This is the most record competitive of HRC loh...!!

Also remember this loh in 2005....!!

Hengyuan price range Rm 8.50 to Rm 12.30
Petdag price range Rm 3.66 to Rm 4.98
Petron price range Rm 2.31 to rm 2.97

Thus Hengyuan share price is far superior than petdag and Petron in 2005 loh...!! Thus assume,if we use 6% pa compound today Hengyuan price range should be rm 17.00 to rm 24.60 loh..!!

So please don look down on Hengyuan at above Rm 11.00 is high it is expected to generate Eps of Rm 3.10 and Hengyuan has ability to catch up with PETDAG level of Rm 24.00 level.

Afterall hengyuan is the most profitable in klse based on eps today loh..!

Lets be realistic loh....!!

U can say anything use DCF , NPV, Replacement value, Margin of safety, PE bases of valuation, if the market don give u a fair value your stock, it still don make monies loh...!!

Thus it is important to understand the valuation of stock & the action of Mr Market mah....!!

Why raider shout so loud to buy when Hengyuan between Rm 2.00 to Rm 10.00 ?
Bcos basing the test of DCF, NPV, Replacement Value, Margin of safety, PE it is extremely undervalue loh...!!

U would also notice when most fear, people shout less although deep in the heart they know, it is extremely extremely undervalue buy mah..!!
Take for example when Hengyuan was Rm 2.00 to Rm 4.00...raider shout buy, but no other people support with follow of shout buy loh..!!
In fact people, with negative contribution like 3iii & gang shouted the loudest, louder than the dog barking it should be a sale loh...!!

In fact bcos of loud mouthed of 3iii, he has caused ahmoi the vegetable seller in pudu to lose rm 50k, just listening to him loh...!!

So as Hengyuan, grow higher, people are more confidence and this is supported by the superior profit and cashflow of hengyuan new financial released mah.....!!

U will also notice at Rm 7.00 to Rm 10.00, more & more people supported Hengyuan bcos of many many top guru like KYY and OTB already given their thumbs up on hengyuan loh...!!

But why should this great investor stake their monies & reputation on Hengyuan leh ?? It is all bcos of undervaluation and still have great prospect loh...!! If use DCF , NPV, Replacement value, Margin of safety, PE bases of valuation u still find extreme undervaluation of hengyuan Pe 4x compare with Nestle 35x & Petdag 20x loh...!!

Hengyuan should resume its upward movement target strongly loh..!!

The immediate resistance will be 2005 high of Rm 12.30 loh...!!

But fair value of Hengyuan should exceed Rm 20.00 mah...!!

Posted by bongjf > 2017-12-03 08:43 | Report Abuse

Sifu Fred Tam imediate TA target RM 12.30
Sifu OTB FA target Rm 22.45
KYY said keep on BUYING untill fund exhausted cos HY IS THE ONLY STOCK trading at KLSE which is super super cheap ( now trading PE 3.38!)
MY SIMPLE CALCULATION : 4 Q rolling EPS = RM3.11
TP for PE 5 = Rm 3.11x5 =RM15.55
TP for PE 10= rm 3.11x10=RM31.10
Compare with PETRONM (EPS 4Q rolling= rm1.54)trading at PE 7.46 now, so take the conservative trading PE of 7.5 for HY, then TP for HY will be RM3.11X7.5=RM23.32 which is very close to Sifu OTB'S FA TP.
Guys, Still not to BUY ??????

Posted by teoct > 2017-12-03 10:22 | Report Abuse

Could anyone point me to the RM 3 billion estimate, thank you as I could not find such an estimate.

Posted by teoct > 2017-12-03 11:18 | Report Abuse

I added the project cost to the RM 1.757b debt is because at that time when Msia government mandated the Euro4 and Euro5, the company would be looking at raising debt for those projects hence the total debt would be about RM3B.

But of course, fund raising (right issue, private placement+debt, etc) could be an alternative, but the feeling then was no one want to pump in money.

Accepted that the current RM700M is for 2 projects, I read this in the 2016 annual report and as reported in Sundaily. But for simplicity lumped as one, my bad.

Moving forward, yes, HY currently is making tons of money, but the dynamic could change quite fast. These are:
1) new refineries coming on-stream thus increasing supply (this is for sure),
2) higher oil prices would lead to reduce growth in demand,
3) or oil prices could come down leading to losses in feed-stock (this losses could be larger than the crack spread)
4) The crack spread could come down from increase supply (as per 1) above) or reduce demand or 2018 no big hurricane (no shutdown in US), no fires, etc.

Projecting current conditions into the future is dangerous; for one, in 2018, HY definitely will make less money as the shutdown (no production!) is 2.5 months. In 2015, there was a 44 days shutdown, revenue, profit, cash flow were all down a lot for that quarter. And there could be unplanned shutdown as the refinery is run at full steam to cash in the high crack spread (as most refineries in the world are doing).

And the assumption that PetronM will shutdown for 6 years for the upgrade is not correct. The refinery will continue to run until the need to tie-in the new equipment to existing ones. Else, with your assumption, then HY also need to shutdown for the coming quarter till Oct 2018 then for the upgrade to EURO4M?

So yes, HY is making good money now, yes, higher valuation is possible. But be cautious, I am sure all of you are smart investors.

Posted by teoct > 2017-12-03 11:40 | Report Abuse

There is another fundamental difference between PetronM and HY, PetronM has retail, HY does not have.

Yes increase valuation for HY is possible but to be same as PetronM would be pushing it (asking too much). PDag only retail. So market is valuing retail higher as there is no worry of gain/loss due to oil price changes and crack spread. Less volatility compared with refining business. PDag continued to make money during the period 2011 to 2014 while refineries were bleeding red.

Easy, buy the refined products according to world price (more or less), marked up and sell (as demand sure there). Always make money (question of percentage only).

Posted by stockraider > 2017-12-03 13:01 | Report Abuse

Lets put it this way loh, Petron is still undervalue but it is not as big undervalue as Hengyuan loh...!!

Since u can see Pe 20x at Petdag, raider think Petron at Pe 10x or Rm 15.00 is not unreasonable loh...!!
If mkt can accord pe 20x to Petron as they did for Petdag then Rm 30.00 valuation is not impossible loh....!!

Coming back to Hengyuan, this is a world champion stock with eps of rm 3.10....if mkt can give PE 7x to 10x it is already rm 21.00 to Rm 30.00 loh.....!!

If mkt can give PE 20x as per Petdag, we should be seeing Rm 60.00 loh...!!

Meanwhile at Rm 10.50 Pe 3.5x it is screaming buy mah...!!

Please note that the earnings growth today come from refinery loh...!!
HY benefit the most & next is Petron loh...!!
Mkt will give a higher rating soon loh....!!



Posted by teoct > Dec 3, 2017 11:40 AM | Report Abuse

There is another fundamental difference between PetronM and HY, PetronM has retail, HY does not have.

Yes increase valuation for HY is possible but to be same as PetronM would be pushing it (asking too much). PDag only retail. So market is valuing retail higher as there is no worry of gain/loss due to oil price changes and crack spread. Less volatility compared with refining business. PDag continued to make money during the period 2011 to 2014 while refineries were bleeding red.

Easy, buy the refined products according to world price (more or less), marked up and sell (as demand sure there). Always make money (question of percentage only).

Posted by stockraider > 2017-12-03 13:29 | Report Abuse

U MUST UNDERSTAND WE ARE IN A NEW ERA TODAY, WHERE REFINERY EARN ALOT LOH....!!

Posted by teoct > Dec 3, 2017 11:18 AM | Report Abuse

Moving forward, yes, HY currently is making tons of money, but the dynamic could change quite fast. These are:
1) new refineries coming on-stream thus increasing supply (this is for sure), YES NEW REFINERY, BUT MANY MANY REFINERY AROUND THE WORLD IS CLOSING DOWN BCOS OF OLD AND UNABLE TO COMPLY TO THE NEW WORLD EMISSION STANDARD MAH, EXAMPLE CHINA MANY SMALL REFINERY CLOSING DOWN, IN ADDITION THE NEW REFINERY COSTLY LOH. PETRONAS 300K BPD REFINERY COST RM 64 BILLION AND PETRON ADDITIONAL 60K BPD NEW REFINERY COST RM 6.4 BILLION LOH...!!
2) higher oil prices would lead to reduce growth in demand, RAIDER SAY NOTHING TO DO WITH HIGHER OIL PRICE, TO THE REFINERY CRACK SPREAD IS VERY IMPORTANT AND A STEADY CRUDE WITH UPWARD BIAS IS HIGHLY BENEFICIAL LOH...!!
3) or oil prices could come down leading to losses in feed-stock (this losses could be larger than the crack spread). AS OIL PRICE COME DOWN SLOWLY NO ISSUE, BCOS THE HIGH CRACK SPREAD CAN EASILY ABSORBED IT.
4) The crack spread could come down from increase supply (as per 1) above) or reduce demand or 2018 no big hurricane (no shutdown in US), no fires, etc. AS I SAY MANY OLD REFINERIES HAD CLOSED DOWN AND SOME WILL BE CLOSING DOWN BCOS OLD AND UNABLE TO COMPLY TO WORLD EMISSION STANDARD LOH..!! NEW REFINERY SET UP COST ARE VERY HIGH, HENCE UNWILLING & UNABLE TO SALE CHEAP, BCOS THEY NEED TO RECOVER INVESTMENT MAH..!

Projecting current conditions into the future is dangerous; for one, in 2018, HY definitely will make less money as the shutdown (no production!) is 2.5 months. In 2015, there was a 44 days shutdown, revenue, profit, cash flow were all down a lot for that quarter. And there could be unplanned shutdown as the refinery is run at full steam to cash in the high crack spread (as most refineries in the world are doing). WHAT IS 44 DAYS ?? REMEMBER EVERY REFINERY NEED TO SHUTDOWN FOR 30 DAYS AS PER STATUTORY INSPECTION, EVERY 3 YRS...THIS COST ALREADY FACTOR IN MAH...!! HENGYUAN SHUTDOWN DURING THIS PERIOD ALSO GOOD TIMING BCOS THEY CAN DO THE UPGRADE TOGETHER MAH...!!
LET SAY U GET A LOWER EPS RM 2.50....AT CURRENT PRICE OF RM 10.50, IT IS STILL DAMN CHEAP LOH...!! AT PE 10X IT IS RM 25.00, WHY DANGEROUS LEH ??

And the assumption that PetronM will shutdown for 6 years for the upgrade is not correct. The refinery will continue to run until the need to tie-in the new equipment to existing ones. Else, with your assumption, then HY also need to shutdown for the coming quarter till Oct 2018 then for the upgrade to EURO4M? PETRON WILL NEED TO SHUTDOWN 30DAYS TOO IN 2018, IF THEY DO UPGRADE MAY TAKE 44 DAYS...BUT THEY BUILD THE NEW 60K BPD REFINERY IT WILL TAKE AT LEAST 3 YRS SPENDING RM 6.4 BILLION LOH...!! THE OLD REFINERY CAN GO ON, BUT THE NEW CAPACITY WILL COME IN AT LEAST 3 YRS LATER, MEANWHILE PETRON CARRY HIGH DEBT OF RM 6.4 BILLION FOR NEXT 7 TO 10 YRS BCOS OF THE NEW INVESTMENT LOH...!!

So yes, HY is making good money now, yes, higher valuation is possible. But be cautious, I am sure all of you are smart investors. I THINK NOT SO CAUTIOUS FOR HENGYUAN BCOS ONLY SPENDING RM 700M, JUST LESS THAN 1 YR CASHFLOW WILL PAY THAT OFF LOH...!!
FOR PETRON, I THINK RM 6.4 BILLION DEBT APPEAR TOO HIGH LOH...!!
INSTEAD OF INVESTING SO MUCH,RAIDER SUGGEST THAT, THEY APPROACH THEIR NEIGHBOUR, HENGYUAN TO SELLOFF THEIR REFINERY AND JUST CONCENTRATE ON RETAIL & MARKETING LIKE PETDAG IS DOING LOH...!!

LET EXPERT LIKE HENGYUAN DO THE GOOD JOB ON REFINERY LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2017-12-03 13:43 | Report Abuse

Lets put it this way loh, Petron is still undervalue but it is not as big undervalue as Hengyuan loh...!!

Since u can see Pe 20x at Petdag, raider think Petron at Pe 10x or Rm 15.00 is not unreasonable loh...!!
If mkt can accord pe 20x to Petron as they did for Petdag then Rm 30.00 valuation is not impossible loh....!!

Coming back to Hengyuan, this is a world champion stock with eps of rm 3.10....if mkt can give PE 7x to 10x it is already rm 21.00 to Rm 30.00 loh.....!!

If mkt can give PE 20x as per Petdag, we should be seeing Rm 60.00 loh...!!

Meanwhile at Rm 10.50 Pe 3.5x it is screaming buy mah...!!

Please note that the earnings growth today come from refinery loh...!!
HY benefit the most & next is Petron loh...!!
Mkt will give a higher rating soon loh....!!


Posted by teoct > Dec 3, 2017 11:40 AM | Report Abuse

There is another fundamental difference between PetronM and HY, PetronM has retail, HY does not have.

Yes increase valuation for HY is possible but to be same as PetronM would be pushing it (asking too much). PDag only retail. So market is valuing retail higher as there is no worry of gain/loss due to oil price changes and crack spread. Less volatility compared with refining business. PDag continued to make money during the period 2011 to 2014 while refineries were bleeding red.

Easy, buy the refined products according to world price (more or less), marked up and sell (as demand sure there). Always make money (question of percentage only).