Based on the financial review of Armada with the latest addition of the 2 out of 3 GOOD NEWS, it was determined that (basically, nothing has changed from previously!) :-

PROOF – ARMADA REVENUES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE DEBT
PROOF - 14.25 YEARS TO FULLY SETTLE DEBT IF REVENUE STABLE FOREVER BUT ITS FIRM IS ONLY UP TO 6.5 YEARS!
PROOF - NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE INTEREST AND TAXES
PROOF – ARMADA CANNOT GET ANY MORE FINANCING

Armada’s ability to secure new contracts is likely to be 0%

PROOF - Armada has lost the momentum as a major player since 2014.
PROOF - Armada has been without a business development / sales team since 2014.
PROOF – Armada embroiled in various allegations from various countries including EU and INDONESIA.
PROOF – Armada’s strategic direction is uncertain due to controversies with its major shareholder.
PROOF – Armada’s behavior as a contractor has been one of litigation.
PROOF - You cannot bid for contracts if you do not have donor tankers.
PROOF – Armada’s recent FPSO is a lemon.

6.5 years to go or 27 Quarters to go. RM80 million net profit per Quarter optimistic assumption. That means RM2.1 billion in profits.

Rm20.5 billion confirmed sales for next 6.5 years. Actual operations profit from Rm20.5 billion is around Rm8.5 billion. Rm8.5 billion has to pay for everything under the Gross Profit line. And this doesn't include principle debt payments of Rm12.5 billion. Q results don't matter. And when oil industry recovers in 2030, Armada's assets are nearly 20 years old. End of life.

It is enough to pay off the RM13 billion debts (excluding interest)?

HOW TO MEET THE RM5.5 BILLION DEFICIT???

How much ADDITIONAL new revenue is needed for Armada?

=================================
Around RM13 billion in new sales / revenue.
=================================

That is not going to be achievable for Armada since it no longer has the reputation to get new contracts.

So it’s the crunch time now. What are the options available to the shareholders?

1. Take Armada private
2. Sell Armada
3. Dispose assets to continue to try to survive

1. Taking Armada private

Do you think that the main shareholders want to do so when Armada is an endless money pit with gutter reputation? Finance 101, get rid before you incur more losses.

2. Sell Armada

No one is buying Armada in this market until 2030. And the new shareholders have to deal with an incompetent management.

And new owners have to come up with an additional RM5 billion to pay off its debts.!!

3. Dispose assets to continue to survive

Assets are worth nothing as long as the market doesn’t recover until 2030. The asset are still being valued too high. Disposing assets wouldn’t be enough to settle Armada’s debts anyway.

With the review of the latest results, it was exceeding our expectations. Our view is now further reinforced that Armada will default. How much time left before Armada defaults? It would be next year when it defaults.

Despite the enthusiasm on the following: -

Speculated improvement in cash flows - Insufficient in 2020
Speculated settlement on Claire - Circa 25% of the asking compensation by Armada
Speculated award of new contracts - Nil probability
Speculated sale of assets - Highest bidder bidding at 10% of current NBVs

Armada would not be aggressively pursuing debt restructuring negotiations if the above were not in positive light. A highly anticipated default will still happen.

Given that the option to take private, to sell out and sell assets are not viable for Armada, what route will Armada take in such a event? PN17 and administrators will come in for sure.

We expect that Armada will be broken into many pieces. For the FPSOs, it would be taken over by their respective JV partners and other assets will be sold off to the highest bidder.

We expect institutional funds to lose all investments and creditors will not be paid 80% what is owed to them while debtors will be taken to court wherever possible.

As for the main shareholder, they have already clawed back their investments when they part disposed in 2011/12.

Looks like its "ride the train for as far as you can" before it breaks down.

You all think shorties no more? Our stupid shorties will try all their ways to maintain the price one la

Tomorrow will trade around 0.205-0 215

Based on the financial review of Armada with the latest addition of the 2 out of 3 GOOD NEWS, it was determined that (basically, nothing has changed from previously!) :-

PROOF – ARMADA REVENUES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE DEBT
PROOF - 14.25 YEARS TO FULLY SETTLE DEBT IF REVENUE STABLE FOREVER BUT ITS FIRM IS ONLY UP TO 6.5 YEARS!
PROOF - NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE INTEREST AND TAXES
PROOF – ARMADA CANNOT GET ANY MORE FINANCING

Armada’s ability to secure new contracts is likely to be 0%

PROOF - Armada has lost the momentum as a major player since 2014.
PROOF - Armada has been without a business development / sales team since 2014.
PROOF – Armada embroiled in various allegations from various countries including EU and INDONESIA.
PROOF – Armada’s strategic direction is uncertain due to controversies with its major shareholder.
PROOF – Armada’s behavior as a contractor has been one of litigation.
PROOF - You cannot bid for contracts if you do not have donor tankers.
PROOF – Armada’s recent FPSO is a lemon.

6.5 years to go or 27 Quarters to go. RM80 million net profit per Quarter optimistic assumption. That means RM2.1 billion in profits.

Rm20.5 billion confirmed sales for next 6.5 years. Actual operations profit from Rm20.5 billion is around Rm8.5 billion. Rm8.5 billion has to pay for everything under the Gross Profit line. And this doesn't include principle debt payments of Rm12.5 billion. Q results don't matter. And when oil industry recovers in 2030, Armada's assets are nearly 20 years old. End of life.

It is enough to pay off the RM13 billion debts (excluding interest)?

HOW TO MEET THE RM5.5 BILLION DEFICIT???

How much ADDITIONAL new revenue is needed for Armada?

=================================
Around RM13 billion in new sales / revenue.
=================================

That is not going to be achievable for Armada since it no longer has the reputation to get new contracts.

So it’s the crunch time now. What are the options available to the shareholders?

1. Take Armada private
2. Sell Armada
3. Dispose assets to continue to try to survive

1. Taking Armada private

Do you think that the main shareholders want to do so when Armada is an endless money pit with gutter reputation? Finance 101, get rid before you incur more losses.

2. Sell Armada

No one is buying Armada in this market until 2030. And the new shareholders have to deal with an incompetent management.

And new owners have to come up with an additional RM5 billion to pay off its debts.!!

3. Dispose assets to continue to survive

Assets are worth nothing as long as the market doesn’t recover until 2030. The asset are still being valued too high. Disposing assets wouldn’t be enough to settle Armada’s debts anyway.

With the review of the latest results, it was exceeding our expectations. Our view is now further reinforced that Armada will default. How much time left before Armada defaults? It would be next year when it defaults.

Despite the enthusiasm on the following: -

Speculated improvement in cash flows - Insufficient in 2020
Speculated settlement on Claire - Circa 25% of the asking compensation by Armada
Speculated award of new contracts - Nil probability
Speculated sale of assets - Highest bidder bidding at 10% of current NBVs

Armada would not be aggressively pursuing debt restructuring negotiations if the above were not in positive light. A highly anticipated default will still happen.

Given that the option to take private, to sell out and sell assets are not viable for Armada, what route will Armada take in such a event? PN17 and administrators will come in for sure.

We expect that Armada will be broken into many pieces. For the FPSOs, it would be taken over by their respective JV partners and other assets will be sold off to the highest bidder.

We expect institutional funds to lose all investments and creditors will not be paid 80% what is owed to them while debtors will be taken to court wherever possible.

As for the main shareholder, they have already clawed back their investments when they part disposed in 2011/12.

Looks like its "ride the train for as far as you can" before it breaks down.

Fundamental sifu is mikekim

Waiting for stupid shorties to give me 5mil shares at 0.205 n 5mil shares at 0.200

You all get excited for nothing, it's just up half a cent

Tomorrow will trade around 0.205-0.215

I think u guys must be wrongly thought of Armada is knm, u all thought Armada was the one up 65cents past Friday? That's knm la, nothing to do with Armada also

Waiting for stupid shorties to give me 5mil shares at 0.205 n 5mil shares at 0.200

Tomorrow will trade around 0.205-0.215

Tomorrow will take around 0.205-0.215

0.40 is next year la

Shpok, so buy or sell now?

Armada operator sure will press down again the price and EPF and shorties will dump their shares

So Armada tomorrow will drop back to 0.205

Im waiting for you

But we divorced last year due to her single mother very demanding, eyes only keep talking about money, never asked me to love her daughter

What u said is right, my ex they looking at money more than everything

My dowry to my wife is 20k, she is just a Vietnamese Chinese though

1888.88 is damn...... cheap

0.200-0.205

0.200-0 205

If Armada Monday up much then I cut my head lo

Worst case scenario is I buy back all where I sold off earlier at 0.21 lo

It's not up 5cents, u guys not realistic at all, I will only buy when it's 0.200-0.205, I believe Armada operators, EPF or stupid shorties will give me one :)

Hahaha, you guys too excited because of it's just up half a cent?

Font forget that's the trap by Armada operator

I'm still waiting heavily at 0.200-0.205 now, if not then buy back all at 0.21 , I think Armada operator and shorties sure will give me one

So, it's sure will drop to 0.200-0 205

Haha, you guys must be too optimistic, armada is very popular with one day show, and EPF will keep dumping then shorties might follow

EPF still have 297mil shares to dump

So get ready with EPF huge dumping again

Don't think it will up la, as it's always maintained at that price range, then EPF will quickly dump their shares

So I believe it will drop back to 0.205 again, or worst case buy back at 0.21 where I sold previously

No good announcement news it won't up one la, even if with good news announcement, it's just one day show and will drop back one

Minimum 5mil shares waiting for you

0.205 la

Xi and trump not yet reach a trade deal, so Monday Armada will drop to 0.205

Where are you shorties????

Btw, how come no more shorties willing to dump at 0 .205 already ah?

Monday will drop back to 0.205

IT, today up is because the shorties buying back, nothing new, it will drop back to 0.21 and even 0.20-0.205 soon

I'm still waiting 5mil shares at 0.205 , n 5mil shares at 0.200, if still can't get, then buy back at 0.21, simple

So get ready for it to drop back and then we accumulate again la

Today up is because knm up so much, then Armada also entertain us up a bit for u all to happy alot only

Mengyew, u teach me how to cross trade?

Now high price already at 0.215, can just sell

Sure will drop la

Still waiting at 0.18-0.20, now up a bit and waiting 5mil shares at 0.205

Don't forget that armada is very popular of one day show

Armada will drop back next Monday one, don't expect much