Based on the financial review of Armada with the latest addition of the 2 out of 3 GOOD NEWS, it was determined that (basically, nothing has changed from previously!) :-

PROOF – ARMADA REVENUES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE DEBT
PROOF - 14.25 YEARS TO FULLY SETTLE DEBT IF REVENUE STABLE FOREVER BUT ITS FIRM IS ONLY UP TO 6.5 YEARS!
PROOF - NOT ENOUGH TO SETTLE INTEREST AND TAXES
PROOF – ARMADA CANNOT GET ANY MORE FINANCING

Armada’s ability to secure new contracts is likely to be 0%

PROOF - Armada has lost the momentum as a major player since 2014.
PROOF - Armada has been without a business development / sales team since 2014.
PROOF – Armada embroiled in various allegations from various countries including EU and INDONESIA.
PROOF – Armada’s strategic direction is uncertain due to controversies with its major shareholder.
PROOF – Armada’s behavior as a contractor has been one of litigation.
PROOF - You cannot bid for contracts if you do not have donor tankers.
PROOF – Armada’s recent FPSO is a lemon.

6.5 years to go or 27 Quarters to go. RM80 million net profit per Quarter optimistic assumption. That means RM2.1 billion in profits.

Rm20.5 billion confirmed sales for next 6.5 years. Actual operations profit from Rm20.5 billion is around Rm8.5 billion. Rm8.5 billion has to pay for everything under the Gross Profit line. And this doesn't include principle debt payments of Rm12.5 billion. Q results don't matter. And when oil industry recovers in 2030, Armada's assets are nearly 20 years old. End of life.

It is enough to pay off the RM13 billion debts (excluding interest)?

HOW TO MEET THE RM5.5 BILLION DEFICIT???

How much ADDITIONAL new revenue is needed for Armada?

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Around RM13 billion in new sales / revenue.
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That is not going to be achievable for Armada since it no longer has the reputation to get new contracts.

So it’s the crunch time now. What are the options available to the shareholders?

1. Take Armada private
2. Sell Armada
3. Dispose assets to continue to try to survive

1. Taking Armada private

Do you think that the main shareholders want to do so when Armada is an endless money pit with gutter reputation? Finance 101, get rid before you incur more losses.

2. Sell Armada

No one is buying Armada in this market until 2030. And the new shareholders have to deal with an incompetent management.

And new owners have to come up with an additional RM5 billion to pay off its debts.!!

3. Dispose assets to continue to survive

Assets are worth nothing as long as the market doesn’t recover until 2030. The asset are still being valued too high. Disposing assets wouldn’t be enough to settle Armada’s debts anyway.

With the review of the latest results, it was exceeding our expectations. Our view is now further reinforced that Armada will default. How much time left before Armada defaults? It would be next year when it defaults.

Despite the enthusiasm on the following: -

Speculated improvement in cash flows - Insufficient in 2020
Speculated settlement on Claire - Circa 25% of the asking compensation by Armada
Speculated award of new contracts - Nil probability
Speculated sale of assets - Highest bidder bidding at 10% of current NBVs

Armada would not be aggressively pursuing debt restructuring negotiations if the above were not in positive light. A highly anticipated default will still happen.

Given that the option to take private, to sell out and sell assets are not viable for Armada, what route will Armada take in such a event? PN17 and administrators will come in for sure.

We expect that Armada will be broken into many pieces. For the FPSOs, it would be taken over by their respective JV partners and other assets will be sold off to the highest bidder.

We expect institutional funds to lose all investments and creditors will not be paid 80% what is owed to them while debtors will be taken to court wherever possible.

As for the main shareholder, they have already clawed back their investments when they part disposed in 2011/12.

Looks like its "ride the train for as far as you can" before it breaks down.

Armada Won't have any show one la

Armada is now a sleeping counter

Armada really FULLY controlled and manipulated by shark behind

Knm up to 0.235 already

Very sad, knm can up to 0.225, but Armada is just like a shit

Many retailers following me to queue at 0.200?

Anyway, queue to buy at 0.19-0.20 la, sure can get BEST buy

Armada has been trading around 0.205 - 0 21 for quite sometimes already, what's really happening?????????????

This early morning Armada volume is a fake one, own self trading only

Armada is lousiest counter so far, never break 0.215 wall, now not touching 0.200, even though waiting for Long

Waiting for you Armada at 0.19-0.20, please give me 5m shares today at 0.20

Tomorrow maybe no volume at all, ZERO volume

Jason, u r right, whatever we say about the shorties, they all like to attack us, thats why I don't even bother and answer all their nonsense.

I only respect mikekim and super panda , Mabel so far, and maybe shpok also

Mabel, today VC up la

I have been waiting and waiting at 0.18-0.20, still can't get any

If still cannot get, then next week I will buy back at 0.205-.0 21

Today totally no shorties and super low volune, only 3.5mil shares traded

Totally super low volume, only 5590 shares traded

Now only 5333 shares traded

Yesterday only 12m shared traded

Then why the volume super low?

EPF totally no trading already since last two weeks, what's really happening?

And totally no sell volume

Totally no shorties at all

Walao, super low volume again

Now I'm just hoping the price will drop first

Not yet buy all, how to concentrate? Still waiting at 0.18-0.20 especially heavily at 0.195-0.20

Shorties please give me 5mil shares at 0.200 please...

Today my prediction is will close around 0.20-0.210

Anyway,hoping tomorrow Armada operator can give me 5mil shares at 0.200

Yes shpok, very sad

Hope tomorrow operators can give me 5m shares at 0.200 please

Tomorrow will close around 0.20 -0.205 range

Today my prediction accurate again, closed at 0.205

Shpok, I sold some VC at 0.165

Hello all, u all got see the previous one week closing price? 4 days 0.21, then 2 days 0.205, then followed by 2 days 0.200, then 2 days 0.205, then 2 days 0.21, then today 0.205, tomorrow?

Then if really drop to 0.195, then last bullet 5m shares

Will wait it drop to 0.20 then I allocate 5mil shares to buy

I shouldn't buy 1mil shares yesterday at 0.21, regret already

Today trading pattern just like waiting for people to sell like that

Today trading pattern very weird

Shpok, do something la, now totally no volume

Shpok, do something, now totally no volume

VC still waiting at 0.155

Shpok, now waiting for you to buy and sell, do something, don't let the volume to be stagnant now

Hope can get all cheapest buy at 0.18-0.20 now

I adjusted the price, from 0.18-0.19 to 0.18-0.20, so I'm waiting for you armada at range 0.18-0.20

Totally no shorties?

Total 3343 units share traded only? What's happening??

No more Shorties?