VincentTang,

That’s the chart for Mogas 92. When was the last time you pumped RON 92? Long time ago right? Msia no more RON 92 lah. Wrong chart.

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Posted by VincentTang > Apr 10, 2018 08:28 AM | Report Abuse

Crack spread drop a lot. Be careful

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/refined-products/singapore-moga...

david_tan,

Wah! 1st time I see article in i3investor done based on daily calculations

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Posted by david_tan > Apr 9, 2018 05:20 PM | Report Abuse

Please take a look at my analysis on Hengyuan's Q1 2018 profitability.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/financialpedia/152815.jsp

calvintaneng,

If you want to spite KYY, that's between the 2 of you. You go take it personally on him ok. Leave hengyuan forum to hengyuan shareholders. Please go away. You are talking rubbish.

calvintaneng,

Why are you talking like a crazy person? Ifca and Hengyuan got what similarity and connection?

If you are a FA believer, what happened to the share price in the past few weeks shldnt have any impact on your valuation of hengyuan.

If you are a TA believer, you shld know that this trend reversal is an event waiting to happen.

If you are a FA and TA believer, you are making money from hengyuan now

sunztzhe,

Well said. Cant agree more.

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Posted by sunztzhe > Apr 9, 2018 12:48 PM | Report Abuse

Weak hands had been completely flushed out by the sustained downward momentum over recent weeks.HY share price had dropped from high of 19.20 to low of 6.02, a whopping -68.6 retracement. This is classic flush down.

The recent downtrend was extremely severe and nerve wrenching to the faithfuls. It tested HY faithfuls to the core of their beliefs on HY stock fundamentals. Some faithfuls had capitulated under extreme emotional duress.Those who had held on will be rewarded for their faith in HY fundamentals.

New high for today already!

probability,

Btw, I cant help but notice that you deleted all your comments made between 10.00pm of 2nd April and 5:19pm of 4th April. That happens to be the period of time when you switched from promoter to naysayer. If you are honest about your intentions, nothing to hide, no need to delete anything. Very fishy action.

Not going to say more. I’ve made my point. Your actions here have caused you to lose all credibility at this forum. And there was a point in time when i placed some weight on things you write here. What a shame.

probability,

There was no question posed to you. It was a subtle way to tell you to move on after you have sold your shares; unless you have an ulterior motive of which then you will not be the good person that you portray yourself to be.

probability,

Previously, you were a shareholder. So when hengyuan was falling, it makes sense that you were trying hard to keep the prices up. Hence, you did your research to come up with supporting facts, you countered negative pple like iii3 etc. I comprehend that.

You have now sold your shares. You said based on information that have now hit you and awoken you up, you will not touch hengyuan even with the bullish trend forming. You are no longer going to buy any hengyuan shares. So why are you now putting even more effort than before at this forum? Anyone else would have just walked away from the forum. That’s the logical thing to do.

Please dont say that you are putting in hours here everyday just to enlighten the other members so that they dont lose their money. Nobody buys that. Priests also wont preach endlessly like that.

supersaiyan,

1. The mat salleh did not actually resign. He was on secondment from Shell as part of the takeover. His term was up, so he went back to Shell.

2. Crack spread did not really shrink across all products. Some products crack spread went up, some went down.

3. As part of the takeover, Shell has a Product Offtake Agreement where Hengyuan will sell its outputs to Shell for a 10 year term at market price

dragonslayer.

Based on my back of envelope calculation, i expect QoQ EPS to be better than the previous 61sen, but lower than YoY EPS of 93sen.

Thanks

qqq3,

You are correct. I have been assuming that hengyuan would have adopted the commodity brokers’ approach of valuing their inventories at fair value. My bad. Thanks for pointing that out.

Good job for taking the effort to go through the audited accounts.

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Posted by qqq3 > Apr 7, 2018 11:01 PM | Report Abuse

John...note 2.9 to the accounts


2.9 INVENTORIES
Inventories are stated at the lower of cost and net realisable value.

Icon8818,

You cant counter by comments and this is your reply? Very matured of you.

Do yourself a favour. Approach a friend who is an experienced auditor exposed to accounts of PLCs. Ask for a comment on your article. You do not need to post the outcome here. It is good for your own knowledge.

Thanks

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Posted by Icon8818 > Apr 7, 2018 10:46 PM | Report Abuse

John_Lee another faked accountant, LOL!

I am not asking to be spoon fed. Am telling you the method you were talking about cannot be done. But you insist that it can be done. Since you so confident can, then you show lah. That’s all.

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Posted by probability > Apr 7, 2018 10:42 PM | Report Abuse

my objective is just to prove your accounting knowledge did not serve any purpose...

i am not your dad to spoon feed on critical information to you which are to my advantage.

qqq3,

I dont agree with how the rm400m was derived. Without having access to management accounts, David_tan’s version makes more accounting sense.

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Posted by qqq3 > Apr 7, 2018 10:38 PM | Report Abuse

john..I went through the accounts...what is that $ 400 m stuff they are talking about? plucked from the thin air?

Go through all 4 quarters of 2017 and show us here what was hengyuan’s inventory gain then, please. Thanks.

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Posted by probability > Apr 7, 2018 10:31 PM | Report Abuse

read the report thoroughly young man...Mr. accounting graduate

OTB, a short advice to you. Nobody can please everyone, more so in the social media world. Your fight will be endless here. There will always be supporters, and there will always be doubters and bullies. If you want to participate in the social media, you will have to accept this fact. You are doing your goodself no favour by replying and explaining. Trolling is an ugly permanent in social media..

That cant be done. Inventories gain or loss is included in cost of solds sold. You wont be able to see it as it is not a disclosure item. You will need to access the detailed management accounts to see that. As shareholders, we do not have access to such information.

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Posted by probability > Apr 7, 2018 10:22 PM | Report Abuse

Go through the reported inventory gain in each of Hengyuan's qtrly results for 2017 except Q4 2017......

it should be quite easy to calculate the inventory gains.

qqq3,

FYI. Hengyuan’s accounting for inventories is not based on the old concept of lower of cost and NRV. MFRS dictates that inventories is stated at fair value.

Accounting is very technical. You cant agak-agak and bullshit your way without having the necessary skills. You are only embarassing yourself by acknowledging that you are not skilled at accounts but yet insist that you are correct. Worse still, you are misleading other members here who are not accounting savvy.

I’ve commented enough on this article of yours.

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Icon8818 > Apr 7, 2018 07:39 PM | Report Abuse

The above method was used by FutureEyes to predict each qtr result very accurately.

I trust him more than accountants.

Icon8818,

From your comment, i know you are not from a strong accounting/audit background. Trust others when you are corrected on fields which are not your forte.

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Posted by Icon8818 > Apr 7, 2018 07:20

And the fixed cost during upgrade exercise. I don’t know where you got your RM130m figure from lah. Regardless, according to accounting standards, that amount spent will be capitalised as fixed assets. Wont affect current year P&L. It affects cash flow but not profit.

Your article is terribly inaccurate. If you dont know your accounting, dont simply come up with accounting based articles lah. Keep to theoretical articles please.

How you know 2018 will incur inventory loss of RM100m? You already know the price of crude oil on 31 Dec 2018? How you know? You time travel ah?

Icon8818,

In another article, david_tan had already corrected you that your RM400 inventory gain in 2017 is wrong. And he explained with proper accounting stantards and calculatation. Don’t be so stubborn lah. If wrong, accept it. Why still keep on using salah figures and come up with manipulative article like this?

I copy and paste david_tan’s comment below:

—————

Your inventory gain of RM400m is incorrect. I believe you are referring to MFRS 13 (Fair Value Measurement). The inventory is classified as a Level 1 asset and the market market value is quite readily available.

As at 31 December 2016, inventory is valued at RM826m. Brent crude price was RM255 per barrel. This translates to approximately 3.2m barrels in hand.

As at 31 December 2017, brent crude price was RM272 per barrel. The fair value of the said 3.2m barrels is therefore RM870m.

The fair value gain on inventories in FY 2017 was therefore only RM44m, and not RM400m claimed by you.

Icon8818,

Your article massive salah everywhere lah. I’ve commented at your blog. But i’ll post them here for the benefit of the others here

And the fixed cost during upgrade exercise. I don’t know where you got your RM130m figure from lah. Regardless, according to accounting standards, that amount spent will be capitalised as fixed assets. Wont affect current year P&L. It affects cash flow but not profit.

Your article is terribly inaccurate. If you dont know your accounting, dont simply come up with accounting based articles lah. Keep to theoretical articles please.

How you know 2018 will incur inventory loss of RM100m? You already know the price of crude oil on 31 Dec 2018? How you know? You time travel ah?

Icon8818,

In another article, david_tan had already corrected you that your RM400 inventory gain in 2017 is wrong. And he explained with proper accounting stantards and calculatation. Don’t be so stubborn lah. If wrong, accept it. Why still keep on using salah figures and come up with manipulative article like this?

I copy and paste david_tan’s comment below:

—————

Your inventory gain of RM400m is incorrect. I believe you are referring to MFRS 13 (Fair Value Measurement). The inventory is classified as a Level 1 asset and the market market value is quite readily available.

As at 31 December 2016, inventory is valued at RM826m. Brent crude price was RM255 per barrel. This translates to approximately 3.2m barrels in hand.

As at 31 December 2017, brent crude price was RM272 per barrel. The fair value of the said 3.2m barrels is therefore RM870m.

The fair value gain on inventories in FY 2017 was therefore only RM44m, and not RM400m claimed by you.

Investor48,

Sendai - he just did a quick round 2 weeks back from 70 sen to rm1. Looks like the game hasnt ended there yet

Jaks - i think a bit difficult for him since he is at war with the founders of Jaks

Logically speaking, today’s volume cannot be KYY’s work alone. He has the money to buy but there must be a seller. Who has so many shares to sell? Retailers have been largely cleared out - this can be seen with falling volume the few days before rebound. There must be operators involved in this push.

Put it from another view. If KYY is the one buying everything up, at the rate shares are made available for puchase in big volume, KYY will also stop and start thinking something is not correct.

I doubt KYY has the volume in hand to churn the kind of volume today. He had only just gone in yesterday at RM6+

For all you know, KYY is also riding the wave like us

paperplane,

At arms length. This is taken from hengyuan's 2016 Annual Report:

The 10-year Product Offtake Agreement, commencing from 22 December 2016 being the completion date of the Share Sale, stipulates that products
produced by HRC would be primarily sold to the POA Buyers to support the POA Buyers’ marketing activities in Malaysia based on the minimum and maximum contractual limits as set out in the POA. The POA Buyer has the first right of refusal to offtake refined petroleum products produced by HRC above the minimum contractual limit, subject to the terms and conditions set out in the POA.

The price of products to be supplied by HRC pursuant to the POA is at arms length and is determined based on, amongst others, the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) quotation plus a premium as published in Platt’s Asia Pacific/Arab Gulf Marketscan under the heading of “Singapore”. This is an internationally recognised trade marker widely used by all ASEAN players in the Oil & Gas Industry

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Posted by paperplane > Apr 5, 2018 12:35 PM | Report Abuse

both crack spread for morgan 92, 95 seems holding up well.

The problem i remember is when oil station bought from the refinery, will it be agreed at lower pricing, so the crack spread shown, in reality might be slightly lower/ higher depends case to case basis dealing??

Isnt it obvious by now that the 2 sen dividend comes with an ulterior motive? That is to press the share price down. Market was expecting a big Q4 profit and big dividend. But the opposite happened instead. It is a calculated move.

- the management team from China are not company owners. They are employees
- the management team wants to make big money
- all counters have operators (you better believe this)
- operators need inside help to push or press share price
- management and operators have to work together
- operators cannot make money by pushing the share price up up up in a straight line. They make their money from up down up down

The share market is very complicated. Every sen you make from the counter, it is a sen lesser for the operators to earn.

How long will the operators hold the share price low? They are not making big money while accumulating. They also have holding cost because they are definitely on margin facility.

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Posted by newbie4444 > Apr 5, 2018 12:19 PM | Report Abuse

EPS higher in 2017 get 2 sen dividend. If EPS drop in 2018 0 dividend more logic?

Shernius I heard next year 20 sens dividend true?
05/04/2018 12:15

And for the first time, he even called for truce

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Posted by gator > Apr 5, 2018 11:52 AM | Report Abuse

John,

what was strange was 3iii became nice and even said we are Hengtai

and Probability change tune...

On the techincal chart, there was no gap up. To gap up, today's lowest price must be higher than yesterday's highest (RM7.25)

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Posted by PureBULL . > Apr 5, 2018 11:49 AM | Report Abuse

Every year today is CHING.MING

What a magical day to allow HY to finally gap up n gradually stays higher ...

WHY must it be this day?

Can't blame probability lah. Yesterday was really scary. Emotions took over rationality. It's totally understandable.

I read his comments yesterday and I realise that he panicked. For example, he was talking about crack spread getting smaller. But previously he said that is not the correct gauge because hengyuan is strong on diesel and diesel price has been going up - a claim which is true. In fact, highest in a long long time in past few months.

Nevertheless, he made a financial decision to protect his portfolio and hard earned money. Nothing wrong with that.

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Posted by ocpd > Apr 5, 2018 11:40 AM | Report Abuse

Pity @probability despite being a great guru but managed to sell @ rm6.00 haha

3iii already said his goodbye yesterday. After pressing the price down for so long, I think he and his gang have bought enough yesterday. In fact, I think they have accumulated enough at low RM7. On Mon and Tue, if you notice, he started being nice here. Yesterday was likely a bonus for him and his gang.

Now that he is on the hengyuan boat, he cannot whack hengyuan anymore. If he starts talking positive about hengyuan, he will be seen as making a u-turn. That will kill his 'credibility' at i3investor for future use.

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Posted by kentwoon > Apr 5, 2018 10:46 AM | Report Abuse

Sorry our 3iii professor busy today. Why?

wltan22,

Where can I find that note? I don't see it in Bursa's announcement.

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Posted by wltan22 > Apr 3, 2018 04:46 PM | Report Abuse

"Note: The Purchase Consideration was arrived at on a willing-buyer, willing-seller basis and after into account, amongst others, the expected economic benefit to be derived from the Effective Date (1 January 2017)."

qqq3,

Everyone knows you have conflicts with OTB. Keep it between the 2 of you. You dragging the dead into your fight to smear OTB shows that you are the lowest of the low. Shame on you. Utterly distasteful and classless. You are a shame to the i3 community.

Do the right thing and delete this blog post for goodness sake!

3iii,

Yes, I have been wasting too much time here. Thanks for the reminder.

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Posted by 3iii > Apr 2, 2018 11:05 PM | Report Abuse

Have you looked at your own actions recently?

3iii,

You think too highly of yourself. I just find you terribly annoying.

3iii,

I hope that you are proud of your behaviour and actions here.

3iii,

Just stop being annoying and a nuisance. Please.

In what way is ‘Another whose ass got licked by the giraffe?’ being ‘truthful, fair and reasonable? Grow up. Please.

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Posted by 3iii > Apr 2, 2018 10:23 PM | Report Abuse

John Lee

Why do you wish to be popular?

Just be truthful, fair and reasonable

3iii,

You really dont know why you are so not well liked here?

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Posted by 3iii > Apr 2, 2018 09:38 PM | Report Abuse

Another whose ass got licked by the giraffe. ?

Hahahaha... rchi is our hero of the day

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Posted by rchi > Apr 2, 2018 08:23 PM | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/QQQ3OTB/152688.jsp

come qqq3,be my guest

pussycats,

Spot on. And I thought after CG expired, they will leave us alone.

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Posted by pussycats > Apr 2, 2018 07:04 PM | Report Abuse

... Wow, so much lecture here in HY.

YAWN

3iii,

No, I dont. I didnt bother to read.

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Posted by 3iii > Apr 2, 2018 06:31 PM

John

Now that you have even counted the numbers of words in my article, you come to realise what is popular may not be profitable.

What maybe the reasons for the majority being losers in Hengyuan since middle of 2017, even though it’s price of today is still higher than then?

3iii,

Keep it short and sweet. Too long winded and nobody bothers to read. Just for you, I copied and pasted your lecture on Word. 517 words in a comment. *facepalm*

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Posted by 3iii > Apr 2, 2018 04:57 PM

Is investing a popularity... harshest critic.

Humbly yours.

qqq3,

Now you are changing direction and focus. But again just to find something to hit OTB.

Like arv18 said, 'We got the memo. You don't like him'.

Really, we do. We really really do.

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Posted by qqq3 > Apr 2, 2018 04:27 PM | Report Abuse

John......Do you think a true professional can last a day in OTB job? I don't think so.......This guy really very good in promoting himself.....you really really need thick skin to do his job......

arv18,

Do read up on investing in the share market.

In what way have I stepped on your toes? Your statement is uncalled for.

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Posted by arv18 > Apr 2, 2018 04:02 PM | Report Abuse

John, do you have any proof that more people lose money?

Or is just that you are a perpetual loser?

Which one is it?