If US companies were to close shop in China, the US economy will plunge like the Financial crisis of 2009. The global economy will enter a recession. By that time, US will do a QE5, I think.

From The Edge Weekly,... China's output per year of nitrile gloves is 12 billion pieces while M'sia's output for the same category of gloves is 102 billion pieces.
Thus the 10% tariff on medical gloves is not likely to benefit M'sia's glove sector much.

From the Elliott Wave perspective, the Dow is now at its minor 4th wave n is set to retest its former low made days ago.

A triple zig-zag for Dow Jones:-

https://invst.ly/bw7kz

Posted by laychee > Aug 25, 2019 3:18 PM | Report Abuse

No matter what, it is an escalation of the ongoing trade war.

If the US is still ahead in military might, WWIII would already have started as US wants to wallop all nations that threaten its dominance.

Unfortunately, Russia has already overtaken US in hypersonic missiles for which US has no defence. China's hypersonic missiles is expected to become operational in 2020 i.e. next year

So, the Duck now resorts to trade war.

Posted by qqq3 > Aug 23, 2019 11:24 AM | Report Abuse

their teenagers are very proud HK have the most free economy in the world...free to screw themselves.

Exactly! What is the value of this pride ?? Zero value except for bragging online. LKY is wise and correct. LKY does not allow unbridled capitalism in S'pore.

Posted by Apple Juice > Aug 22, 2019 2:44 PM | Report Abuse

Qqq3! Madam,China took advantage of US patronage for 25 years!

It can also be said US took advantage of China's cheap labour and vast market. There are 2 sides to it.

Today :
"The RMB, which earlier this month breached 7 per dollar for the first time since the financial crisis, weakened 0.15% to 7.0740 per greenback as of 12:30 p.m. in Shanghai, extending a six-day drop to 0.7%, the biggest in Asia. The offshore rate fell 0.27%.

The weakness comes as U.S. President Donald Trump said overnight he was the "chosen one” to wage a trade war with China and asserted that he’s winning.

The Chinese government is making arrangements for the possibility that no trade deal is reached with the U.S., Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the state-run Global Times, wrote in a tweet Wednesday."

China preparing for the possibility of no trade deal with US. China is weakening the RMB. Will there be another crash in Wall Street ?

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China is considering testing a ban on gasoline-powered vehicles in some parts of the country and may set a timetable to eventually phase out such vehicles, according to the industry ministry.

The oil age is begining to wane.

Today :
President Donald Trump again showed no signs of backing down in his tussle with China, declaring on Tuesday a confrontation was necessary even if it caused short-term harm to the U.S. economy.

It is the US which pressed China to open up for trade decades ago. In the minds of US, China could not catch up with the West even for 100 years.

Then, suddenly, they come to realise that their calculation was all wrong !

Now, comes the US containment policy, the last of which ended with US defeat in Vietnam. Unfortunately, their memories are short.

After withdrawal from Vietnam, US left Thailand to her fate. US use its airbase in Thailand to bomb Vietnam. Phan Van Dong threaten to invade Thailand after the US withdrawal. Now, US is seeking to place their intermediate range missile in other Asian countries which could be destroyed in retaliation.

Hang Seng drops 60 pts at close. Everything is bearish in HK

SHK Properties is known to have bid up the prices of their apartments themselves. Culprits are property tycoons n British gomen.

"Actually it was caused by LKS and the British." That is the true picture.

Posted by laychee > Aug 20, 2019 3:42 PM |

Youth in HK thought Chinese from mainland caused property price to surge.

Actually it was caused by LKS and the British.

The main culprit is the British colonial government. Governments have executive powers. They can make laws to prevent the construction of shoebox flats like S'pore did. But they didn't do.

They talk abt freedom but they denied foreigners of their freedom by making them hostages at their airports.

This is the legacy of British rule, namely unbridled capitalism. Total free market. Making a fortune during those times are never easy. Wealth inequality is great simply because the British cares only abt their own colonial interest not "Golden Rule". Yet, the protesters are worshiping the British like gods.

Just look at KL. A decade ago,in response to complaints abt developers building expensive condos to cater for foreigners, Hishamuddin replied "this is free enterprise" and that the government cannot intervene.

Posted by laychee > Aug 16, 2019 2:08 PM | Report Abuse

Extreme measure will invite western countries' intervention. It could into a big snowball.

It is within the Basic Law that PRC can move in at the request of HK government. Of course, if the inevitable comes.
Macao government have made such request after the flooding caused by Typhoon Mangkhut to assist in the clean up.

Hong Kong protests could threaten city’s status as an international shipping hub, analysts say.

While Beijing has never spoken publicly about the economic consequences
of the escalating protests over the past two months, a widely shared view within China is that the central government should reduce its reliance on Hong Kong as its key financial and logistics gateway to the rest of the world.

This could result in mainland ports having greater autonomy in managing the shipment of goods into and out of China, analysts said.

China this month upgraded and expanded
a free-trade zone in Shanghai, which covers an area about the Hong Kong Island and Kowloon combined, with the ambitious goal of becoming “China’s bridgehead integrating into a globalised economy by 2035”.

Dr Collin Wong Wai-hung, associate dean of the School of Decision Sciences at the Hang Seng University of Hong Kong, estimated Hong Kong could lose all transshipment rights in the non-Pearl River Delta region, which could translate into a loss of 2.4 million container twenty food-equivalent units (TEU) – a measurement of standard container sizes. Should China fully relax cabotage rules in other parts, this could dent Hong Kong’s annual container throughput (the cargo passing through the port) by 14 per cent. (SCMP)

From a technical perspective, the strong pivot for Pchem lies at abt 6.85

I read fung shui from Lynn Yap: stock market outlook 2019 - share prices in the stock market can collapse around Sep/Oct. There is a big crash and this is the year.

There is no absolute freedom of expression everywhere. For example, in Thailand, if u poke fun on the royalty, u will be arrested. What is the value of freedom of expression if the consequence is everything gets burnt down ?

From the technical aspect, Genting looks set to retest its previous lows having breached its important support at 6.19

"weaponise" is not the right word. The companies are passing the tariff to the buyers just like glovemakers passing their increase in cost to buyers.

This round it is likely to be liquor.

Genting is for long term investors. If I remember, the history of Genting have seen a lot of these controlling shareholder transactions. Yet, Genting continues to grow to this day.

Genting holds 100% of its new Las Vegas casino. New startups are bound to incur losses in the beginning. If u want to have Genting in your portfolio, u must be mentally prepared.

Allowing a country's currency to move according to market forces without intervention is manipulating ??

Posted by nhbeen > Aug 6, 2019 8:49 AM | Report Abuse

I have noted his postings for quite a while. He always posted after some market news, be it negative or positive. Meaning he is using historical figures to post his views. I believe anyone also can be great with a view of the past. Why don't he share some predictions about the upcoming market trends for us to witness? If he is right, I will definitely follow his blog even closer.

One consultant used to post his Elliott Wave chart on the net before the event n got it right mos of the time and is stacking his reputation as a consultant. I do not see it here. Merely discussing about capitulation brings nothing.

KADR Projects HSI to Open Down 538 pts to 25,613

Even IMF said there was no manipulation of RMB as alleged by Don. It is just market forces interacting.

Now, not intervening to defend RMB and let the market forces decides, becomes manipulation.

In 2018, when trump attacked china by imposing tariff , RMB to USD exchange rate declined from 6 to 7, a drop of 15%

What is the implication ?

Fair enough, its USD500 bil export to US suffered. Let's say it suffered by 25% x USD500 bil. It is equivalent to USD125 bil

But due to decline in RMB，the profit margin of its remaining export to the rest of the world experience huge expansion. For simplistic comparison purpose, 15% x USD1,800 bil = USD270 bil

Let me sum it up for you : Penalty by US is USD125 bil, while gain from rest of the world is USD270 bil

If you are China, won't you yawn at Trump's tariff ?


Spot on, Icon8888. In fact, PRC did not manipulate RMB. They just let RMB slide by itself. The issue then was "no forex intervention by PRC could mean forex intervention ? "

PRC's response.

"PRC Scraps US Pork Orders in Record Scale".
China is drawing back her booking orders for 14,700 tonnes of U.S. pork, scheduled for shipment in 2019 and 2020, said foreign media.

This was said to be the largest booking withdrawal by China since 2013, according to the statistics of U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Posted by avengers19 > Aug 2, 2019 2:45 PM | Report Abuse

That doesn't mean they paid them US 1 BILLION my friend haha. It's just that the lawsuit which was 1 billion has been settled.

U are right. They do not disclose the terms of their settlement.

Investors do not buy Trump's propaganda that US economy is doing fine. If what Trump said is true, why must Fed lower interest rates ? Powell has a hard time explaining his rationale of lowering interest rates.

"The arrogance and ignorance of Hong mongers are no where to find,"

You are right. A few years back, I was in Hong Kong n I do find the people there arrogant. I asked my way by showing the name of a street to a Hong Kong shopkeeper and his reply was "don't know".

The people of Macao are friendly and are able to converse in Cantonese, Mandarin, English, Portuguese. At least, I can see the wisdom of Macao people.

Now, Hongkees are saying Hong Kong will bounce back. I doubt it. PRC will leave Hong Kong in the cold and develop Shenzhen as another Hong Kong, New laws will be erected to turn it into an international city n if successful, the rest of China will follow. Change is indeed taking place in PRC for the better.

It is easy to say "I love democracy", "I love freedom of speech" ....

Hongkong's problem would not have arisen if the British had not used their gunboat to grab other people's land. The people of Chagos are still waiting to return to their original home stolen by UK n leased out to US to build its naval base in the Indian Ocean.

Like they say, if there is no Act 1, then there is no Act 2.

I pity those Hongkees especially those college n uni protesters. They are suppose to be clever. But they does not seem to understand without the mainland, Hong Kong will continue its decline.

In the past, Hong Kong is the gateway to the mainland for global business. This advantage is already long gone after PRC opens up. These bright students could not understand this ??

A good article in Star today, "Hong Kong in decline".

PRC will just let Hong Kong rot slip into oblivion.

The mainland is capitalist but still embrace communism to hold on to its territories. The West would certainly be happy to see PRC melt like the USSR.

A nostalgia for a time gone by. PRC will bid its time. When the Basic Law ends, PRC Law will automatically take effect. Nothing can change this. After all, Hongkong was just a lease to UK for 99 years.

Hongkees should adapt themselves to the new realities. Expensive housing is not PRC's making. It is the fault of British colonist which practise unbridled capitalism.

The communism practised by PRC is not the original communism espoused by Mao or Marx or USSR. They wanted to make an equitable society by making everyone poor.

The communism practised by PRC now intends to make a more equitable society by making its citizens rich. This makes a great difference.
Hence, PRC is neither communist nor capitalist.

Spot on !!
Posted by Negan > Jul 26, 2019 8:42 PM | Report Abuse

Honestly, hongkies would be better off under CCP! Those who protest are stupid youth! If CCP takes over, hongkies will beneit tremendously from cheap housing! Enough exploiting hongkies!

Take Senzhen for example! The quality of life in Senzhen is superior that those in Hong Kong! Hongkies are living in total sh'thole to be honest!

Chinese military can be deployed at Hong Kong’s request to contain protests, Beijing says

'State of Emergency' coming to HongKong soon if these protest do not stop. It is within the Basic Law to request help from the central government if the disturbances could not be contained.

Budweiser IPO called off due to uncertainties in HK.

"And that's why I have always said that enormous patience is required for the strategy."

What an insight !
Keynes said : "in the long term, we are all dead". I remember a bank manager who held a lot of shares for long term investment but joined in the fire sale that followed the stock mart crash in 1987. He did it again in 1998. I know his wife who told me the whole story cos' her husband also dumped her holdings of shares as well.

Is KLSE overvalued or fully valued in light of current economic challenges ?
If u buy a fully valued stock, chances are that u won't be able to make $$$ .

Fund managers are not interested probably due to its low free float.

Gas Msia has indicated that price of gas will increase tremendously come January 2020 due to deregulation of gas market.

With low margins, the glove sector seems overvalued now.

Most of the businessman did not vote BN due to unrefunded GST. The ordinary folks who are net savy did not vote BN due to fake news law passed by BN which put every internet surfer at risk.

GST looks good only on paper.

With gas price increase, outlook for glove sector softer now.

Everything looks good on paper. U pay input tax. U get a refund. But u get only a portion back. Where are the rest of $$$ ? PPl are running a business. They need the money as promised. They are not zillionaires watching TV at home.

Agree