Amazing no one is talking about the windfall levy in all major forum.
When windfall levy was introduced.
Plantation sector drop from 8k to 3k.
Now the windfall levy is revised and so silent.

Now the planter will take lesser short position at major levy reference price.
Adding power to more long.
IF the reference price is 5 k.
Then eventually we will reach there.
IF not where to get tax from palm oil .

Malaysia reviewing windfall tax.
3% windfall tax on gross sale price is a lot considering margin of big planters are around 3 to 5 %.
Basically is 100% to 150% of after tax profit.
Adjusting the reference price upward also imply current price is a normal price thus giving long term support to CPO.


The new reference price will be the long term upward target of CPO.

Finally The government is willing to part more profit to the planters.
Those who lost planters vote lose the political game.

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/07/02/johari-suggests-reinvesting-windfall-tax-in-oil-palm-replanting/

https://api.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2024/07/1071292/ministry-plans-review-windfall-tax-ensure-collection-reflects

KUALA LUMPUR: The Plantation and Commodities Ministry plans to review the windfall tax in the 2025 Budget to allow the tax collection to reflect the current palm oil prices in the industry.

Its minister Datuk Seri Johari Abdul Ghani said the current formula used to calculate the tax was no longer applicable to the production of palm oil.

He added that the ministry will collaborate with the Malaysian Palm Oil Board to review the mechanism and ensure the collection of tax could be returned to planters.

By 2030 , When Brazil b25 and Indonesia B50 in place.
Do you think the CPO price will be lower than now?
Do you think TSH price will still be at 1.50 which is only 20 % from now when cpo and land price will surely be much higher than now as NUSANTARA will be much much more developed.
Just dividend already 20 % gain in 5 years.

2030
Indonesia b50 Export greatly reduced
2030 Brazil b25 Stop export
More and more Resource producing countries are keeping commodity for local use for downstreaming precious commodity.

Yesterday Soybean oil rally 4.5%.
Mthly MACD GC in coming mths for soybean oil.
FCPO will break higher high above 4500.
OTW to 7k by 2030.
Land value escalate higher and higher
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/biodiesel-mandate-domestic-demand-could-stop-brazilian-soybean-oil-exports-sources/

The stoppage of exports from Brazil, the world’s second largest exporter of soybean oil, will have a notable impact on the global trade balance.
India is the largest importer of soybean oil, with MY 2024-25 imports projected at 3.5 million mt, up 18.7% on year, according to the USDA.

Commodity superbull will cause further spike in land value.
Do not wait till Trump become president.
Trump policy is weak USD to boost local manufacturing.

Forever increasing Land value will be the best hedge against hyper inflation.

Plantation got super undervalued land which had not been revalued.
Yet still trading at below PB 1. Meaning you can buy the land of plantation company at 30 to 40% discount to book value.
And old book vs current market value may be like already 70% discount.
In TSH you got 80% discount (old book value vs current market value
+ further markdown 40%( 0.6 Price to Book ) discount on land value.
All the hidden land value in the Accounting.


https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/trump-re-election-may-lead-commodity-market-fragmentation-hsbcs-bloxham-says-2024-06-28/

HSBC's statistical model in May indicated a shift to a 'super bull' from a 'weak bull' phase in commodities, despite already elevated prices. According to HSBC, commodity prices are unlikely to return to their previous trend, and are set to stay "permanently higher".

Took 11 years to form this 6 mthly breakout.
First the price movement, reasons come later.

Half yearly chart BO

2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Take a look at 6 mth chart on TSH.
1st breakout after11 years downtrend.
This candle will form at the end of this mth.
IF it break out on 6mthly chart.
High chance it will be bullish until december for the 6 mth candle.
Then it will form a yearly break out for 2024.

Half yearly chart cannot manipulate.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/trump-re-election-may-lead-commodity-market-fragmentation-hsbcs-bloxham-says-2024-06-28/

HSBC's statistical model in May indicated a shift to a 'super bull' from a 'weak bull' phase in commodities, despite already elevated prices. According to HSBC, commodity prices are unlikely to return to their previous trend, and are set to stay "permanently higher".

If i am blackrock i will buy up all the plantation sector below pb 1 in malaysia.
Easy money.

The land value so high now until the boss so scared of his share being force sell.
The boss shifted share to sgx to avoid that.
Just in case any party want to grab the ownership from his hand.
Tsh is only trading at 10% of its true land value.
Thats why boss keep buying back the share when epf dispose their share in 2022 .
He so scared of losing his ownership.
Many party are jealous of the land TSH had.
Whole plantation sector got no more room for growth.
Yet TSH still got 50% empty land.
Basically if someone can privatise this company at 2 billion can sell the land for 10 billion. Easy money.
And as years pass by land value will go up to 15 billion then 20 billion.
TSH main growth doesnt come only from palm oil.
Its from land value.
And land value you cannot see from P & L.
And because its hidden from P & L.
Plantation sector growth are hidden and its always the prime target for privatisation at cheap price like Bstead.
Real NTA of TSH is not 1.50.

TSH SGX closed 0.34 ATH since listed.
wkly chart Cup and handle pattern.
Breaking out soon.

Plantation index corection almost finish.
Time to resume mthly bullish trend.

https://kaltim.tribunnews.com/2024/06/10/jokowi-buka-bukaan-harga-tanah-ikn-nusantara-di-kaltim-bandingkan-harga-balikpapan-dan-jakarta

President Jokowi compared the price of land in Balikpapan, the neighboring IKN in East Kalimantan, which is very far in price, plus compared with the city of Jakarta.

"In Balikpapan alone, one meter is Rp 15 million, in Jakarta it reaches Rp 200 million," he continued as quoted from the Presidential Secretary's YouTube channel.

Although currently the price of land in the IKN per square meter ranges from Rp 400,000 to Rp 800,000, it also has the potential to change in the future.



Artikel ini telah tayang di TribunKaltim.co dengan judul Jokowi Opens Up Land Prices of IKN Nusantara in East Kalimantan, Compare Prices of Balikpapan and Jakarta,

Jokowi Opens Up Land Prices of IKN Nusantara in East Kalimantan, Compare Prices of Balikpapan and Jakarta

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - President Joko Widodo or Jokowi said that investing in the Nusantara Capital City or IKN is like owning the future. He said this while groundbreaking the Astra Biz Center and Nusantara Botanical Garden in the new capital project.

According to Jokowi, land prices in the new capital city are still affordable since the construction is ongoing. However, he warned that the situation will be different once construction starts wrapping up, including the Balikpapan-IKN toll road and the IKN VVIP Airport.


"The land will be gone if you change your mind (about purchasing land) in IKN later,” he said during his speech on Tuesday, June 4, 2024, virtually monitored by Tempo from the Presidential Secretariat's YouTube channel.

The former Governor of Jakarta said the price of land in IKN is currently around Rp400,000 to Rp800,000 per meter. Meanwhile, in Balikpapan, land prices have reached Rp1 million per meter.

Jokowi stated that these prices could change at any minute, depending on the Head of IKN Authority’s policy and market demand. "If the demand is high, the prices will automatically go up," he said.

Moreover, Jokowi claimed that UAE-based property company Emaar Properties plans to invest in the new capital city. Without mentioning the exact figure, Jokowi said the investment is “really huge.” The investment agreement is expected to be signed in July 2024 in Abu Dhabi.

“After that, the land prices could change,” he concluded.

One day when nusantara and east kalimantan is well developed like jakarta.
The 80k acre piece of land will be worth 60billion.
The boss and his family is so lucky and only he can hold so long.
Who say plantation company is not growth company.

The President then urged prospective investors in the audience to follow suit by immediately buying plots of land in Nusantara before their price goes up, particularly once the transportation networks in and around the new capital are up and running.

“The price of land now is between Rp 400,000 and Rp 800,000 [per square meter]. But this can change as soon as tomorrow, depending on the IKN Authority head,” Jokowi said.

“If there’s big demand, the price will go up for sure.”

400000 rp to rm114 per metre sq
1 acre = 4046 x 114= rm461244

80k x460k=37billion

Even give a 90% discount will fetch 3.7 billion

Just the piece of land near nusantara already 3 x of tsh market cap.
With the land value so crazy high, there are 2 options for the boss.

1.Suppress the stock price before market is aware and take it private like bplant and other plantation company.

2.If no intention to privatise. Push up the price to match land value  before market aware and discourage hostile shark  take over his company.

Ytl and ytlpower downtrend and laughh at for 15 yrs.
Once break out on yearly chart ,it can only be done by funds.
No retailer can do that and reverse a yearly downtrend .
Same as TSH, yearly downtrend can only be reversed by fund manager or boss himself.
Even when cpo reach 7k ,Tsh didnt manage to reverse downtrend.
But this year its going to be reversed.
You wont know why until it happens.

YTLPOWER and YTL downtrend for 15 years and break out on the 16th.
TSH is downtrend for 10 years going break out on the 11th.
Similiar yearly chart. Just different in duration

Take a look at 6 mth chart on TSH.
1st breakout after11 years downtrend.
This candle will form at the end of this mth.
IF it break out on 6mthly chart.
High chance it will be bullish until december for the 6 mth candle.
Then it will form a yearly break out for 2024.

Half yearly chart cannot manipulate.

Monthly MACD is piercing above 0.
Even TSH fall another 10% wont change the direction of monthly trend.
It will pierce up above 0 sooner or later.
Buying on any fall is wise.

Th plantation is joint venture.
TSH operate and run its own biogas plant.

On the back of a sharply improved balance sheet, the research house reported that TSH is looking to resume new planting activities, as the group is left with 30,000ha of unplanted land bank.

Further boosting its operations, HLIB said, TSH will expand its renewable energy efforts into Indonesia by investing in four to five biogas plants over the next few years.

“We understand that the construction of its first biogas plant in Indonesia (with an estimated sum of RM15 million to RM20 million) will take place by the first quarter of FY2024, and ready for commission one year later,” HLIB said.

Th plantation got the 1st move in biogas theme.
Tsh will follow soon.

Monthly MACD piercing above 0 soon.
Everytime TSH Monthly MACD pierce above 0 . 50% to 100 upside in 6 to 12 mths time after that.
Still got time to accumulate

Are you ready for TSH ?

If all plantation company start become utility company and power plant.
Think who will be hit....

Plantation company only need convert 1% of their land into solar farm can increase profit by 54 % according to maybank calculation.

Solar power could generate 54X more profits than palm oil — Maybank

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1336441/solar-power-could-generate-54x-more-profits-than-palm-oil-maybank

Every 2 year convert 1 % can maintain 25% growth per year.

Who want to invest inpalm oil cultivation if plantation company can make more profit in other business using the same plot of land.
Forseeing a decreasing trend and supply crisis ahead for palm oil.
CPO price is too cheap to boost supply.

Wish all plantation company convert their land into solar farm.
Then it will wake up the government not to tax too much on plantation company.

we will also be open to businesses on solar energy and decarbonisation for our 100,000ha of sustainable forestry asset.

Solar energy and carbon credit.

Two area of growth

See what Chairman said on sgx listing

SGX Securities today welcomed the secondary listing of TSH Resources Berhad (TSH Group) to Mainboard under the stock code “TSH”.

TSH Resources Berhad, which is primary listed on Bursa Malaysia, is principally engaged in oil palm cultivation and processing of fresh fruit bunches into crude palm oil and palm kernel. Its oil palm plantations and palm oil mills are located in Sabah, Malaysia, and Kalimantan and Sumatera in Indonesia. The company is headquartered in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Kelvin Tan Aik Pen, Chairman, TSH Resources Berhad, said, “The secondary listing on SGX marks another momentous milestone for the company. This secondary listing will facilitate a new phase of development for the company, and we are excited with the opportunities. While continuing to grow our plantation portfolio, we will also be open to businesses on solar energy and decarbonisation for our 100,000ha of sustainable forestry asset. We recognise there will be challenges but we are committed to stay the course in building sustainable value for all our stakeholders.”

https://www.sgxgroup.com/media-centre/20230926-sgx-securities-welcomes-tsh-resources-berhad-mainboard

Solar power could generate 54X more profits than palm oil — Maybank

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1336441/solar-power-could-generate-54x-more-profits-than-palm-oil-maybank

So plantation company with huge land bank can now be the highest growth company if they convert to solar farm (54 x earning?)
While cut down in pam oil land will also push up cpo price?

No wonder TSH management want to venture into solar energy and renewable .

TSH Resources Bhd will seek strategic opportunities within the green and sustainable segment to complement its long-term shareholder value enhancement initiatives.

Today crisis day. Probably another buy up day for TSH.

No idea what is the catalyst, you wont know until it happened.

The sign is every bad news out is buy up.Proven again.
They are buying every possible weak ticket before huge break out in 2025.
Where yearly kdj line golden cross.
Yearly kdj line golden cross , you know it mean a minimum 100% gain.
Last time tsh kdj yrly gc ,it gained 400% in 4 yrs.
You still got few mths more to buy. Nov to dec will be busy mth for yrly breakout.

The sign is every lacklustre qtrly result , buyers will be slowly eating up the weak tickets.
Then end up higher later post result.
Basically Tsh is not running on result anymore.
Why there is still buying on poor result and bad news ?
Out of msci, buying up.
Poor result buying up.
No idea why is it so.

Blackrock ,American Century Investment and Dimensional fund Advisors have added total 500k shares in TSH in  April.
Actively increasing ownership recently.
Something brewing.

hope the banker allow limit up this round

Indonesia is also converting palm oil into bio gasoline and SAF beside diesel.

RI To Replace Fossil Gasoline With Bio-gasoline

https://gapki.id/en/news/2024/01/25/den-ri-to-replace-fossil-gasoline-with-bio-gasoline/#:~:text=Locally%20known%20as%20Bensa%2C%20the,enough%20raw%20material%20at%20home.

JAKARTA – The National Energy Council (DEN) said that gasoline with the mixture of palm oil or bio-gasoline is potential alternative to replace the fossil-based Pertalite and Pertamax, which are widely used as energy sources in Indonesia. Locally known as Bensa, the palm oil-based bio-gasoline is ecofriendly and cheaper than other fossil fuels.



“With Ron of 120, Bensa has a very good quality. As the world’s largest producer of palm oil, we have enough raw material at home. Its price is cheaper than Pertamax Turbo,” DEN Secretary General Djoko Siswanto told detikcom on Friday (12/1/2024).

Yes.
Indonesia is Downstreaming palm oil and ultimate aim is to leave palm oil for domestic use.
Palm oil will reach 10k on yearly chart by 2030 if indonesia succeed in downstreaming palm oil.
Malaysia will likely follow indonesia to downstream palm oil to attract local production of value added product.
This will set off a downstreaming trend in vegetable oil.
Brazil and argentina will also follow suit to downstream their agriculture in future to spur domestic production of value added product.

China and India will ramp up stockpiling of palm oil and other vegetable oil in the next few years.

Soy bean oil already knee jerk up 2% on this news.

https://jakartaglobe.id/business/prabowo-confident-on-8-pct-growth-in-first-3-years-of-presidency
Jakarta. President-elect Prabowo Subianto recently said that he was confident in achieving 8 percent economic growth within the first two or three years of his presidency.

Food production and Indonesian biodiesel production will also be among the main drivers of this targeted economic growth -- which far exceeds the current figures. 

“I have talked to my experts. I have studied the figures,” Prabowo told the Qatar Economic Forum, as seen in a virtual broadcast by Bloomberg Live.

“I’m very confident we can easily achieve 8 percent. And I’m determined to go beyond,” Prabowo, who is also the current defense minister, said. 

Prabowo is planning to carry on the outgoing President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo's domestic processing policy. This strategy sees Indonesia banning exports of raw minerals --including nickel-- in favor of processing them into greater-value goods at home. The government is planning to extend the domestic processing policy beyond the mining sector. While the domestic processing policy is often promoted as a major booster to the economy, Prabowo said it would take time for the country to develop its downstream industries and reap its benefits. 

“Downstreaming [or domestic processing of natural resources] will take several years. What will be the growth driver in the first years [of my presidency] will be our concentration on agriculture, food production and distribution, as well as energy. We want to go green in a very quick way,” Prabowo said. 

To unlock the 8-percent growth, the election winner is banking on biodiesel, which is expected to drastically cut Indonesia’s diesel oil imports.

“We want to produce our diesel from palm oil. This will be a very strong growth driver. We import $20 billion worth of diesel oil every year,” Prabowo said, while adding that the switch to biodiesel could help the country save its money. 

Indonesia is implementing the mandatory 35-percent palm oil blend in its biodiesel -- a policy better known as the “B35”. According to Prabowo’s campaign manifesto, the president-elect wants to increase this mandatory palm oil blend to B50 by 2029. Indonesia is the world’s largest palm oil producer.


https://www.gulf-times.com/article/682601/business/indonesias-next-leader-targets-world-beating-8-plus-growth
Indonesia’s next leader targets world-beating 8%-plus growth

What would be the growth
drivers in the first few years would be
our concentration on agriculture,” food
production and energy self-suff iciency, he
said.



https://en.infosawit.com/news/12488/prabowo-subianto--europe-boycotts-palm-oil---gue-use-for-biodiesel

Terima kasih lo boikot, gue pakai nanti kelapa sawit untuk bikin solar untuk rakyat

https://voi.id/en/economy/381710
Prabowo Wants RI To Produce B100 Fuel, Minister Of Energy And Mineral Resources: Laboratory Tests Need







Ekonomi

Prabowo Wants RI To Produce B100 Fuel, Minister Of Energy And Mineral Resources: Laboratory Tests Need
Previously, Prabowo emphasized his commitment to bringing Indonesia to self-sufficiency in renewable energy sourced from plants such as palm oil, sugar cane to cassava that thrives in the country.

"Later, we will no longer take oil from the ground, gas from the ground runs out, as long as there is sun and as long as it rains, every year we can harvest diesel (surya), many countries are jealous of Indonesia," Prabowo said in a scientific oration during the National University of the Republic of Indonesia (UKRI) Graduation in Bandung, West Java, Thursday (29/2).

He said that in the next few years, Indonesia will be able to change all biodiesel fuel made from palm oil which aims to stop imports of fuel from abroad.

"We can already make B100, meaning bio diesel from 100 percent palm oil. Can we imagine or not? We will no longer import diesel from abroad because we have 48 million tons of palm oil production now," he said.

Monthly MaCD is slowly moving up ward to break above 0 in a few mths. Even after fierce throw down from 30 sen 10 mths back.
Shows that bankers are collecting when everyone throwing.
Very low risk just buy when sell down and keep.
Possible of 100 - 200% return compare to other glove stock which have run up a lot.

Obviously the banker a bit caught by surprise.
It wont let it limit up so easy.
Trying to wash out many weaker buyer at 215.
But a bull trend is forming and will outperform in long term

Tariff is in 2 yrs time .
Within this 2 years all other glove stock probably will not able to make much profit still and for small counters still loss making.
But Esceramics is already able to pay out dividend shows is the best small counter among small cap glove stock. So it is still laggard.

Its balance sheet is as strong if not stronger than the big 4.
Resuming dividend payout is a strong sign that it is looking forward to healthier and stronger cash flow in future.

Esceramics had show signs of breakout on day , wkly and monthly.
Very good indication of reversal.

Esceram is big beneficiary from new tarrif on china glove by US.
Glove former business can resume normal supply to all glove company in Malaysia and Thailand going forward.
Underrated and laggard glove related stock.
Resuming dividend payout is a strong sign that it is looking forward to healthier and stronger cash flow in future.
Es ceramics already have 90 million cash on hand now.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1320477/sime-darby-plantation-to-co-develop-kerian-integrated-green-industrial-park-with-pnb

Already mentioned before plantation company got the most land and resources to build solar farming and green park. One by one it is coming.

TSH is also going into solar farming and TSH got land near to Green park in Kalimantan .
If TSH land sale did not go through.
Probably it is using the adjacent land to go into green power business to supply green power to the green industrial park. The Kalimantan Industrial Park Indonesia (KIPI) has been projected by Indonesian President Jokowi as “the largest green industrial area in the world”



TSH Resources Berhad, one of the largest Malaysia-based oil palm plantation groups, with the disposal of land covering more than 13,000 hectares in North Kalimantan, Indonesia, for a total of approximately IDR 2.42 trillion or US$162 million, as has been reported.

The land will be used for the development of the International Port and Industrial Estate (Kawasan Industri dan Pelabuhan Internasional or KIPI) to support Indonesia’s new capital, Nusantara. This KIPI area is said to be the largest green industrial area in the world, covering approximately ​​30,000 hectares in total, with an investment value of up to IDR 1,848 trillion or approximately US$118.5 billion. This transaction will provide almost half the total area to be developed for this green industrial area.

Remember if KLCI going above 2k and eventually to 3 k.
Plantation index will 100% break 9k and above.
Because plantation index move in tandem with index.
So if you are bullish on klci then plantation is a sector you cannot miss.

palm oil almost finish correction after break out on wkly chart.
Forming higher low and going for higher high to form a bullish uptrend.
Why bullish up trend on palm oil?
Bad Weather pattern is reflecting on agriculture.
Interest rate already hit max and going down for sure where it is also the bottom for commodity stock.
Soybean had break the support when interest rate hit max.
Hinting bottom for soybean which is bullish for palm oil.

New Forests now has over US$7 billion (RM33.44 billion) in assets under management, with over 1.3 million ha of sustainably managed forests and agricultural land. It has six offices in Australia, New Zealand, the US, Singapore and Kenya.


TSH had over 100000 ha in forest management.
1.3 million ha = RM33.44 billion
100k ha = RM 2.5 billion?

SGX Mainboard listing.
In Sept 2023, SGX welcomed the secondary
listing of TSH to its Mainboard. TSH’s primary listing remains on Bursa
but sees wider opportunities with a SGX presence. Firstly, the bulk of
TSH’s earnings are already from Indonesia; hence, an SGX listing could
provide greater flexibility in terms of: (i) funding, (ii) regional growth, for
example many Indonesian corporations are comfortable with
Singaporean listing, and

(iii) wider carbon-related opportunities in term of market or trading including renewable energy and sustainable forestry where TSH manages over 100,000 Ha in Sabah.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1318177/investing-sustainable-forestry-now-an-asset-class

Sustainable forestry now an asset class

TSH have valuable sustainable foresty assets as well.

https://www.tsh.com.my/sustainability/forest-management/