Pennants break out coming soon for TSH.
Bullish continuation above 1.30

Is there any need to suppresss commodity price anymore for trump?

Democrats fund is in tech.
TRUMP DEADLY HAIRCUT..1st signal to dump tech.
BLUE SCREEN OF DEATH..death of Democrat...2nd signal to dump tech
Biden step down..throw in towel to save congress seat..3rd signal to dump tech
They will wreck the nasdaq b4 trump take over.
Plantation future is bright as cuting windfall tax is profit boosting .
Plenty of cheap tech stock going forward.
Plenty of expensive plantation stock after budget.

Finally market realise every sector is too expensive except plantation.

Do you know that every after tax profit each plantation company earns they pay 1rm as windfall tax?
if KLK earn 400 million pat they donate 400 m to government as tax.
So you think Windfall tax review is important or not.
They are almost considering sueing the government already if they do not adjust the tax structure.


https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2023/11/08/palm-oil-group-demands-immediate-review-on-windfall-tax-after-putrajaya-say-no-refunds-some-mull-legal-action-against-retrospective-law/100887#google_vignette

Palm oil group demands immediate review on ‘windfall’ tax after Putrajaya say no refunds; some mull legal action against ‘retrospective’ law

Democrats fund are in Tech
If they are bound to lose they will sure leave a wreakage to Trump.
The dump will acelerate when near to Election.

TRUMP ERA russel 200 outperform Nasdaq
Biden ERA nasdaq outperform russel 2000
Already sold off all my Tech position when Trump nearly got a deathly haircut.
Gold is going to 3k as per my target.
Plantation should have a good run up til the budget announce windfall tax review.
Dont underestimate the review.

Plantation sector warming up to windfall tax review prior to Budget

Everytime TSH go higher
Selling pressure get lesser.
TSH PE so high not many retailer will buy.
As lesser and lesser retailer buying TSH so where is the selling pressure ?
When it pass 1.30 it will go to 160 to test resistance as no more strong resistance in between.

Remember TSH sold 10% of land bank 730 million 2 years ago.
meaning 100% of total land bank is already valued 7.3 billion 2 years ago.
Fast forward do you think the land value should be above 10 billion now?
Why is it still trading at 1.7 billion market cap?

Indonesia B50 biodiesel by 2030.
Nusantara land continue skyrocket by 2030 due to 5 more years of development and relocation of capitol.
All pointing to uptrend of TSH valuation.
6 mthly chart already break out from 10 years trend. Pointing to more upside ahead.
Even 7k cpo price didn't manage to reverse downtrend line of TSH in 2022.
But in 2024 it did a reversal breakout.
This indicated there is very strong fundamental behind supporting.
Retailer can't reverse a 10 years downtrend line of a stock.
Funds, epf and insiders are already secretly buying up when everyone leaving and bombasting for past few years.
Just look at YTL 16 years downtrend reversal because of something fundamental changes.
Never believe people saying land valua appreciation will not affect stock price.
If appreciate by 20% it wont afect.
50 % may not affect.
100% may not affect.
200% people start questioning.
500% shark smell blood (privatisation happen very often here)
1000% even boss started worring .

Who is buying the land direct when you can buy the company at 90% discount.
Remember land value is not reflected in P/L and B/S.
Even TSH land value is at 10 billion it will still be reflected as NTA 1.5.
Thats why only plantation company are being privatised for the past few years.
When every analyst value plantation company using operation profit thus leading to stock price trading at discount value to NTA..

We cannot be sure of short term fluctuation
But the bright future is certain for TSH .

If land sale aborted by TSH side. Then it must be for better reason.
The price action already supported that.

Crypto crash. Funds flowing into commodities.

No annoucement of further delay. Good news.

So take note Government is pushing plantation company and palm oil now .
Do not short and go against the government.

Let the MOF review this, so we can reassess and indirectly encourage replanting. When this product becomes competitive, more investors will be attracted to the land we have,” he told reporters after the launch of the Transfer of Technology (TOT) 2024 event at the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) headquarters here on Thursday.

"more investors will be attracted to the land we have"

Why the Minister want investor to be attracted to palm oil land ?
Obviously the government want to raise plantation company land value.
And then attract investor to invest in plantation company.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1352967/palm-oil-prices-risk-uncompetitiveness-without-windfall-profit-levy-revision-minister

The price of palm oil will become uncompetitive compared to other producing countries if the windfall profit levy (WPL) on palm oil in this country is not revised.

Plantation and Commodities Minister Datuk Seri Johari Abdul Ghani stated that his ministry would examine and review the WPL, with the findings to be submitted to the Ministry of Finance (MOF).

“Let the MOF review this, so we can reassess and indirectly encourage replanting. When this product becomes competitive, more investors will be attracted to the land we have,” he told reporters after the launch of the Transfer of Technology (TOT) 2024 event at the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) headquarters here on Thursday.

On Wednesday (July 3), during a question-and-answer session in Dewan Rakyat, Johari said the ministry would collaborate with MPOB to review the WPL on palm oil for Budget 2025, aligning with current commodity prices.

https://www.astroawani.com/berita-malaysia/columnist-revisiting-malaysias-biofuel-roadmap-477346

Revisiting Malaysia’s biofuel roadmap

MALAYSIA has made a notable policy shift by lifting the blanket subsidy for diesel, and the government plans to target gasoline next. While this move could save billions of ringgit, it also presents a perfect opportunity for the government to revisit and enhance the country's biofuel roadmap. By strengthening the biodiesel mandate and introducing a new bioethanol program, Malaysia can expedite the reduction of carbon emissions, in line with the nation’s objective to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Increasing the Biodiesel Mandate

Previously, diesel prices were heavily subsidized, making biodiesel less attractive due to its higher cost. However, the landscape has changed. When produced optimally, biodiesel can be cost-competitive with fossil diesel, which sells for about RM3.35 per liter.
Malaysia has already started a B20 program, requiring diesel for transportation to be blended with 20% palm-based biodiesel. However, the nation is currently still implementing a B10 program. Increasing the biodiesel mandate can leverage cost parity to promote a more sustainable energy mix.
This move would bring two-fold benefits. Firstly, it would stabilize crude palm oil prices by lessening reliance on exports. Secondly, utilizing waste oils like used cooking oil and palm oil mill effluent oil as feedstock would bolster the circular economy.
Biodiesel has a significantly lower carbon intensity than fossil diesel, which helps reduce greenhouse gas emissions. For example, if Malaysia’s diesel consumption for transportation is about 8 billion liters in 2022, an additional 10% biodiesel blend would mean 0.8 billion liters of biodiesel. Given that biodiesel emits roughly 80% less carbon dioxide than fossil diesel, this could result in a reduction of about 1.7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually—a substantial decrease that would contribute significantly to mitigating climate change and achieving both national and global sustainability goals.

Amazing no one is talking about the windfall levy in all major forum.
When windfall levy was introduced.
Plantation sector drop from 8k to 3k.
Now the windfall levy is revised and so silent.

Now the planter will take lesser short position at major levy reference price.
Adding power to more long.
IF the reference price is 5 k.
Then eventually we will reach there.
IF not where to get tax from palm oil .

Malaysia reviewing windfall tax.
3% windfall tax on gross sale price is a lot considering margin of big planters are around 3 to 5 %.
Basically is 100% to 150% of after tax profit.
Adjusting the reference price upward also imply current price is a normal price thus giving long term support to CPO.


The new reference price will be the long term upward target of CPO.

Finally The government is willing to part more profit to the planters.
Those who lost planters vote lose the political game.

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/07/02/johari-suggests-reinvesting-windfall-tax-in-oil-palm-replanting/

https://api.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2024/07/1071292/ministry-plans-review-windfall-tax-ensure-collection-reflects

KUALA LUMPUR: The Plantation and Commodities Ministry plans to review the windfall tax in the 2025 Budget to allow the tax collection to reflect the current palm oil prices in the industry.

Its minister Datuk Seri Johari Abdul Ghani said the current formula used to calculate the tax was no longer applicable to the production of palm oil.

He added that the ministry will collaborate with the Malaysian Palm Oil Board to review the mechanism and ensure the collection of tax could be returned to planters.

By 2030 , When Brazil b25 and Indonesia B50 in place.
Do you think the CPO price will be lower than now?
Do you think TSH price will still be at 1.50 which is only 20 % from now when cpo and land price will surely be much higher than now as NUSANTARA will be much much more developed.
Just dividend already 20 % gain in 5 years.

2030
Indonesia b50 Export greatly reduced
2030 Brazil b25 Stop export
More and more Resource producing countries are keeping commodity for local use for downstreaming precious commodity.

Yesterday Soybean oil rally 4.5%.
Mthly MACD GC in coming mths for soybean oil.
FCPO will break higher high above 4500.
OTW to 7k by 2030.
Land value escalate higher and higher
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/biodiesel-mandate-domestic-demand-could-stop-brazilian-soybean-oil-exports-sources/

The stoppage of exports from Brazil, the world’s second largest exporter of soybean oil, will have a notable impact on the global trade balance.
India is the largest importer of soybean oil, with MY 2024-25 imports projected at 3.5 million mt, up 18.7% on year, according to the USDA.

Commodity superbull will cause further spike in land value.
Do not wait till Trump become president.
Trump policy is weak USD to boost local manufacturing.

Forever increasing Land value will be the best hedge against hyper inflation.

Plantation got super undervalued land which had not been revalued.
Yet still trading at below PB 1. Meaning you can buy the land of plantation company at 30 to 40% discount to book value.
And old book vs current market value may be like already 70% discount.
In TSH you got 80% discount (old book value vs current market value
+ further markdown 40%( 0.6 Price to Book ) discount on land value.
All the hidden land value in the Accounting.


https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/trump-re-election-may-lead-commodity-market-fragmentation-hsbcs-bloxham-says-2024-06-28/

HSBC's statistical model in May indicated a shift to a 'super bull' from a 'weak bull' phase in commodities, despite already elevated prices. According to HSBC, commodity prices are unlikely to return to their previous trend, and are set to stay "permanently higher".

Took 11 years to form this 6 mthly breakout.
First the price movement, reasons come later.

Half yearly chart BO

2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Take a look at 6 mth chart on TSH.
1st breakout after11 years downtrend.
This candle will form at the end of this mth.
IF it break out on 6mthly chart.
High chance it will be bullish until december for the 6 mth candle.
Then it will form a yearly break out for 2024.

Half yearly chart cannot manipulate.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/trump-re-election-may-lead-commodity-market-fragmentation-hsbcs-bloxham-says-2024-06-28/

HSBC's statistical model in May indicated a shift to a 'super bull' from a 'weak bull' phase in commodities, despite already elevated prices. According to HSBC, commodity prices are unlikely to return to their previous trend, and are set to stay "permanently higher".

If i am blackrock i will buy up all the plantation sector below pb 1 in malaysia.
Easy money.

The land value so high now until the boss so scared of his share being force sell.
The boss shifted share to sgx to avoid that.
Just in case any party want to grab the ownership from his hand.
Tsh is only trading at 10% of its true land value.
Thats why boss keep buying back the share when epf dispose their share in 2022 .
He so scared of losing his ownership.
Many party are jealous of the land TSH had.
Whole plantation sector got no more room for growth.
Yet TSH still got 50% empty land.
Basically if someone can privatise this company at 2 billion can sell the land for 10 billion. Easy money.
And as years pass by land value will go up to 15 billion then 20 billion.
TSH main growth doesnt come only from palm oil.
Its from land value.
And land value you cannot see from P & L.
And because its hidden from P & L.
Plantation sector growth are hidden and its always the prime target for privatisation at cheap price like Bstead.
Real NTA of TSH is not 1.50.

TSH SGX closed 0.34 ATH since listed.
wkly chart Cup and handle pattern.
Breaking out soon.

Plantation index corection almost finish.
Time to resume mthly bullish trend.

https://kaltim.tribunnews.com/2024/06/10/jokowi-buka-bukaan-harga-tanah-ikn-nusantara-di-kaltim-bandingkan-harga-balikpapan-dan-jakarta

President Jokowi compared the price of land in Balikpapan, the neighboring IKN in East Kalimantan, which is very far in price, plus compared with the city of Jakarta.

"In Balikpapan alone, one meter is Rp 15 million, in Jakarta it reaches Rp 200 million," he continued as quoted from the Presidential Secretary's YouTube channel.

Although currently the price of land in the IKN per square meter ranges from Rp 400,000 to Rp 800,000, it also has the potential to change in the future.



Artikel ini telah tayang di TribunKaltim.co dengan judul Jokowi Opens Up Land Prices of IKN Nusantara in East Kalimantan, Compare Prices of Balikpapan and Jakarta,

Jokowi Opens Up Land Prices of IKN Nusantara in East Kalimantan, Compare Prices of Balikpapan and Jakarta

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - President Joko Widodo or Jokowi said that investing in the Nusantara Capital City or IKN is like owning the future. He said this while groundbreaking the Astra Biz Center and Nusantara Botanical Garden in the new capital project.

According to Jokowi, land prices in the new capital city are still affordable since the construction is ongoing. However, he warned that the situation will be different once construction starts wrapping up, including the Balikpapan-IKN toll road and the IKN VVIP Airport.


"The land will be gone if you change your mind (about purchasing land) in IKN later,” he said during his speech on Tuesday, June 4, 2024, virtually monitored by Tempo from the Presidential Secretariat's YouTube channel.

The former Governor of Jakarta said the price of land in IKN is currently around Rp400,000 to Rp800,000 per meter. Meanwhile, in Balikpapan, land prices have reached Rp1 million per meter.

Jokowi stated that these prices could change at any minute, depending on the Head of IKN Authority’s policy and market demand. "If the demand is high, the prices will automatically go up," he said.

Moreover, Jokowi claimed that UAE-based property company Emaar Properties plans to invest in the new capital city. Without mentioning the exact figure, Jokowi said the investment is “really huge.” The investment agreement is expected to be signed in July 2024 in Abu Dhabi.

“After that, the land prices could change,” he concluded.

One day when nusantara and east kalimantan is well developed like jakarta.
The 80k acre piece of land will be worth 60billion.
The boss and his family is so lucky and only he can hold so long.
Who say plantation company is not growth company.

The President then urged prospective investors in the audience to follow suit by immediately buying plots of land in Nusantara before their price goes up, particularly once the transportation networks in and around the new capital are up and running.

“The price of land now is between Rp 400,000 and Rp 800,000 [per square meter]. But this can change as soon as tomorrow, depending on the IKN Authority head,” Jokowi said.

“If there’s big demand, the price will go up for sure.”

400000 rp to rm114 per metre sq
1 acre = 4046 x 114= rm461244

80k x460k=37billion

Even give a 90% discount will fetch 3.7 billion

Just the piece of land near nusantara already 3 x of tsh market cap.
With the land value so crazy high, there are 2 options for the boss.

1.Suppress the stock price before market is aware and take it private like bplant and other plantation company.

2.If no intention to privatise. Push up the price to match land value  before market aware and discourage hostile shark  take over his company.

Ytl and ytlpower downtrend and laughh at for 15 yrs.
Once break out on yearly chart ,it can only be done by funds.
No retailer can do that and reverse a yearly downtrend .
Same as TSH, yearly downtrend can only be reversed by fund manager or boss himself.
Even when cpo reach 7k ,Tsh didnt manage to reverse downtrend.
But this year its going to be reversed.
You wont know why until it happens.

YTLPOWER and YTL downtrend for 15 years and break out on the 16th.
TSH is downtrend for 10 years going break out on the 11th.
Similiar yearly chart. Just different in duration

Take a look at 6 mth chart on TSH.
1st breakout after11 years downtrend.
This candle will form at the end of this mth.
IF it break out on 6mthly chart.
High chance it will be bullish until december for the 6 mth candle.
Then it will form a yearly break out for 2024.

Half yearly chart cannot manipulate.

Monthly MACD is piercing above 0.
Even TSH fall another 10% wont change the direction of monthly trend.
It will pierce up above 0 sooner or later.
Buying on any fall is wise.

Th plantation is joint venture.
TSH operate and run its own biogas plant.

On the back of a sharply improved balance sheet, the research house reported that TSH is looking to resume new planting activities, as the group is left with 30,000ha of unplanted land bank.

Further boosting its operations, HLIB said, TSH will expand its renewable energy efforts into Indonesia by investing in four to five biogas plants over the next few years.

“We understand that the construction of its first biogas plant in Indonesia (with an estimated sum of RM15 million to RM20 million) will take place by the first quarter of FY2024, and ready for commission one year later,” HLIB said.

Th plantation got the 1st move in biogas theme.
Tsh will follow soon.

Monthly MACD piercing above 0 soon.
Everytime TSH Monthly MACD pierce above 0 . 50% to 100 upside in 6 to 12 mths time after that.
Still got time to accumulate

Are you ready for TSH ?

If all plantation company start become utility company and power plant.
Think who will be hit....

Plantation company only need convert 1% of their land into solar farm can increase profit by 54 % according to maybank calculation.

Solar power could generate 54X more profits than palm oil — Maybank

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1336441/solar-power-could-generate-54x-more-profits-than-palm-oil-maybank

Every 2 year convert 1 % can maintain 25% growth per year.

Who want to invest inpalm oil cultivation if plantation company can make more profit in other business using the same plot of land.
Forseeing a decreasing trend and supply crisis ahead for palm oil.
CPO price is too cheap to boost supply.

Wish all plantation company convert their land into solar farm.
Then it will wake up the government not to tax too much on plantation company.

we will also be open to businesses on solar energy and decarbonisation for our 100,000ha of sustainable forestry asset.

Solar energy and carbon credit.

Two area of growth

See what Chairman said on sgx listing

SGX Securities today welcomed the secondary listing of TSH Resources Berhad (TSH Group) to Mainboard under the stock code “TSH”.

TSH Resources Berhad, which is primary listed on Bursa Malaysia, is principally engaged in oil palm cultivation and processing of fresh fruit bunches into crude palm oil and palm kernel. Its oil palm plantations and palm oil mills are located in Sabah, Malaysia, and Kalimantan and Sumatera in Indonesia. The company is headquartered in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Kelvin Tan Aik Pen, Chairman, TSH Resources Berhad, said, “The secondary listing on SGX marks another momentous milestone for the company. This secondary listing will facilitate a new phase of development for the company, and we are excited with the opportunities. While continuing to grow our plantation portfolio, we will also be open to businesses on solar energy and decarbonisation for our 100,000ha of sustainable forestry asset. We recognise there will be challenges but we are committed to stay the course in building sustainable value for all our stakeholders.”

https://www.sgxgroup.com/media-centre/20230926-sgx-securities-welcomes-tsh-resources-berhad-mainboard

Solar power could generate 54X more profits than palm oil — Maybank

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1336441/solar-power-could-generate-54x-more-profits-than-palm-oil-maybank

So plantation company with huge land bank can now be the highest growth company if they convert to solar farm (54 x earning?)
While cut down in pam oil land will also push up cpo price?

No wonder TSH management want to venture into solar energy and renewable .

TSH Resources Bhd will seek strategic opportunities within the green and sustainable segment to complement its long-term shareholder value enhancement initiatives.

Today crisis day. Probably another buy up day for TSH.