As usual Local IB will say neutral. After 5 k neutral. 6 k neutral.
See which is the smart IB to change perspective.
Indonesia analyst much better.
They already forsee CPO going to 5500 to 6000 in 2026.
Local still not informed.

When Jtisia JPG and thplant all golden cross.
TSH will also follow weekly GC like the past.
Want to play safe can buy after GC few wks later at higher price.
But long term Palm oil gonna break 5000 .
So no matter which you buy chance to profit is high.
At least bumper dividend is high chance according to history

Now fcpo is out of shortist.
Big shortist all got busted.
Next soybean oil mega shortist will start to unwind before they got busted like fcpo.
Soybean oil mthly gc coming.

TSH margin improved by 100% even though lower production.
But volume only drop by 10%.
So even next quarter lower production doesnt mean it will have lower profit.
But JPG Jtisia Thplant all show dropping margin.
So increase volume of sales might not translate into higher profit.
Volume of sales is not only factor to profit.

TSH normal operation profit is almost close to JPG.
JPG is 2.7 bill valuation but TSH is only 1.5 billion.
Its hard to believe TSH is overvalued now even if you think TSH is not good.

TSH last QTR core profit is 56 million after taking out One-off depreciation adjustment due to the completion of land disposal.
Normal operation profit margin already rose from 8 to 16% which was last seen in 2022.
Profit margin should further improve in coming few qtrs after Indonesia friendly policy changes.

TSH new warrant expiry price at 1.40 in 2025.
Even the Issuer do not dare to go against the bull trend of Palm oil next year.

Last wk to get TSH below 1.10.
Next wk onward TSH wkly correction will be over like other plantation stock and will form golden cross like Jtiasa and Thplant.
Basically plantation stock will perform well as 2025 agriculture will boom.
FCPO forming Cup and handle on monthly.
TSH will also form a Cup and handle after the coming wkly golden cross .
If miss out Jtisia and Thplant not too late to buy TSH.

With Indonesia cutting export tax and boosting local DMO sales price and Higher CPO price.
TSH margin will be much higher and not affected by all the unfriendly policy and high cost on malaysia side.
Most indonesia plantation stock are rallying since July after the dmo price and lowered export tax adjustment because Indonesia upstream player will now enjoy higher margin to encourage replanting.

Malaysia joining Brics and meet Putin.
Malaysia is going to be out of US supply chain especially in semiconductor.

TSH majority supply in indonesia and palm oil not affected.
Stay safe here.

Alternative wont work. As it consume much more water (and water is getting more expensive) and energy (getting more expensive) and chemicals(more expensive) to produce. If it scales up to currrent volume to replace palm oil.Nobody got water to drink anymore.

Everything is uncertain.
Invest in certainty.
Palm oil bullish future is certain.

B20 = base price 2000
B30 = base price 3000
B35 =3500
B40 = 4000
B50 = Base price 5000
Base price keeps going higher and higher .
Base pricer 5k means it can reach even higher to 6k to 7k on supply crisis or high demand
Invest in certainty
Indonesia aiming to accelerate to B50 next year
https://biofuels-news.com/news/indonesia-aiming-to-accelerate-to-b50-next-year/

Indonesia president-elect Prabowo Subianto is aiming to implement mandatory 50% palm oil-based biodiesel blending by early 2025, which he said would cut fuel imports by $20 billion (€17.9 billion) per year.
Indonesia said it planned to raise the blending to 40% in January 2025, from 35% now, in an effort to reduce fuel imports and lower emission from fossil fuels.
Prabowo takes over in October from incumbent Joko Widodo, whose administration has ordered the palm oil industry to prepare for B50.
"We are at B35 now and we will accelerate to B40, B50," Prabowo said.
"With B50, 50% biodiesel made of palm oil, once we reach B50, that God willing by end of this year or early next year, we will save $20 billion a year, we do not need to send this money overseas."
Indonesia biofuel producer association APROBI said producers would need time to tests the B50 fuel and increase their production capacity to meet the demand.

Today only Finance and Plantation index rally .
Where is the fund going now? Into safe Haven.

Funds moving into banks and also into large cap plantation.
Tsh is also favoured as midcap High liquidity plantation company.
Low liquidity probably become 3rd tier.

If it is malaysia talking about downstreaming palm oil , you can ignore.
Cant even have 20% biodiesel after so many years.
But if it is Indonesia talking about downstreaming palm oil, 100% they will do it.
Converting palm oil waste into money. They will do it.

Plantation index resuming monthly uptrend in Sep after 2 months correction.

More and more potential business opportunities other than palm oil from plantation companies in Indonesia.
 
Palm Biomass Potential For Biochar Production With High Value

According to Dedi, the potentiality of biochar from palm biomass wastes can have carbon economic value up to US$85 billion.

https://gapki.id/en/news/2024/08/09/palm-biomass-potential-for-biochar-production-with-high-value/

Tsh profit should be 42 million if take out the 1 time 22 million depreciation cost.
4 x higher than previous year and 2 x higher than previous qtr.

Aug 10 2024

Morningstar maintains a 4-star quantitative star rating for TSH resources, derived from the firm's valuation and uncertainty scores.
The company's shares last closed at 1.12, below our quantitative fair value estimate of 1.42. These shares have traded between a 24.51% and 8.76 % discount to their fair value estimate over the past year.

Morningstar quite accurate. Give TP 105 for Nvidia and it sunk below 100 briefly.

Getting back a industrial land adjacent to KIPI industrial park is much better than selling it off as a palm oil land at 2020 valuation.
Waiting for panic seller.

May 31 touch 105 reversal broke125
Today touch 115 .
Reversal and break 135 .

Pennants break out coming soon for TSH.
Bullish continuation above 1.30

Is there any need to suppresss commodity price anymore for trump?

Democrats fund is in tech.
TRUMP DEADLY HAIRCUT..1st signal to dump tech.
BLUE SCREEN OF DEATH..death of Democrat...2nd signal to dump tech
Biden step down..throw in towel to save congress seat..3rd signal to dump tech
They will wreck the nasdaq b4 trump take over.
Plantation future is bright as cuting windfall tax is profit boosting .
Plenty of cheap tech stock going forward.
Plenty of expensive plantation stock after budget.

Finally market realise every sector is too expensive except plantation.

Do you know that every after tax profit each plantation company earns they pay 1rm as windfall tax?
if KLK earn 400 million pat they donate 400 m to government as tax.
So you think Windfall tax review is important or not.
They are almost considering sueing the government already if they do not adjust the tax structure.


https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2023/11/08/palm-oil-group-demands-immediate-review-on-windfall-tax-after-putrajaya-say-no-refunds-some-mull-legal-action-against-retrospective-law/100887#google_vignette

Palm oil group demands immediate review on ‘windfall’ tax after Putrajaya say no refunds; some mull legal action against ‘retrospective’ law

Democrats fund are in Tech
If they are bound to lose they will sure leave a wreakage to Trump.
The dump will acelerate when near to Election.

TRUMP ERA russel 200 outperform Nasdaq
Biden ERA nasdaq outperform russel 2000
Already sold off all my Tech position when Trump nearly got a deathly haircut.
Gold is going to 3k as per my target.
Plantation should have a good run up til the budget announce windfall tax review.
Dont underestimate the review.

Plantation sector warming up to windfall tax review prior to Budget

Everytime TSH go higher
Selling pressure get lesser.
TSH PE so high not many retailer will buy.
As lesser and lesser retailer buying TSH so where is the selling pressure ?
When it pass 1.30 it will go to 160 to test resistance as no more strong resistance in between.

Remember TSH sold 10% of land bank 730 million 2 years ago.
meaning 100% of total land bank is already valued 7.3 billion 2 years ago.
Fast forward do you think the land value should be above 10 billion now?
Why is it still trading at 1.7 billion market cap?

Indonesia B50 biodiesel by 2030.
Nusantara land continue skyrocket by 2030 due to 5 more years of development and relocation of capitol.
All pointing to uptrend of TSH valuation.
6 mthly chart already break out from 10 years trend. Pointing to more upside ahead.
Even 7k cpo price didn't manage to reverse downtrend line of TSH in 2022.
But in 2024 it did a reversal breakout.
This indicated there is very strong fundamental behind supporting.
Retailer can't reverse a 10 years downtrend line of a stock.
Funds, epf and insiders are already secretly buying up when everyone leaving and bombasting for past few years.
Just look at YTL 16 years downtrend reversal because of something fundamental changes.
Never believe people saying land valua appreciation will not affect stock price.
If appreciate by 20% it wont afect.
50 % may not affect.
100% may not affect.
200% people start questioning.
500% shark smell blood (privatisation happen very often here)
1000% even boss started worring .

Who is buying the land direct when you can buy the company at 90% discount.
Remember land value is not reflected in P/L and B/S.
Even TSH land value is at 10 billion it will still be reflected as NTA 1.5.
Thats why only plantation company are being privatised for the past few years.
When every analyst value plantation company using operation profit thus leading to stock price trading at discount value to NTA..

We cannot be sure of short term fluctuation
But the bright future is certain for TSH .

If land sale aborted by TSH side. Then it must be for better reason.
The price action already supported that.

Crypto crash. Funds flowing into commodities.

No annoucement of further delay. Good news.

So take note Government is pushing plantation company and palm oil now .
Do not short and go against the government.

Let the MOF review this, so we can reassess and indirectly encourage replanting. When this product becomes competitive, more investors will be attracted to the land we have,” he told reporters after the launch of the Transfer of Technology (TOT) 2024 event at the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) headquarters here on Thursday.

"more investors will be attracted to the land we have"

Why the Minister want investor to be attracted to palm oil land ?
Obviously the government want to raise plantation company land value.
And then attract investor to invest in plantation company.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1352967/palm-oil-prices-risk-uncompetitiveness-without-windfall-profit-levy-revision-minister

The price of palm oil will become uncompetitive compared to other producing countries if the windfall profit levy (WPL) on palm oil in this country is not revised.

Plantation and Commodities Minister Datuk Seri Johari Abdul Ghani stated that his ministry would examine and review the WPL, with the findings to be submitted to the Ministry of Finance (MOF).

“Let the MOF review this, so we can reassess and indirectly encourage replanting. When this product becomes competitive, more investors will be attracted to the land we have,” he told reporters after the launch of the Transfer of Technology (TOT) 2024 event at the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) headquarters here on Thursday.

On Wednesday (July 3), during a question-and-answer session in Dewan Rakyat, Johari said the ministry would collaborate with MPOB to review the WPL on palm oil for Budget 2025, aligning with current commodity prices.

https://www.astroawani.com/berita-malaysia/columnist-revisiting-malaysias-biofuel-roadmap-477346

Revisiting Malaysia’s biofuel roadmap

MALAYSIA has made a notable policy shift by lifting the blanket subsidy for diesel, and the government plans to target gasoline next. While this move could save billions of ringgit, it also presents a perfect opportunity for the government to revisit and enhance the country's biofuel roadmap. By strengthening the biodiesel mandate and introducing a new bioethanol program, Malaysia can expedite the reduction of carbon emissions, in line with the nation’s objective to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Increasing the Biodiesel Mandate

Previously, diesel prices were heavily subsidized, making biodiesel less attractive due to its higher cost. However, the landscape has changed. When produced optimally, biodiesel can be cost-competitive with fossil diesel, which sells for about RM3.35 per liter.
Malaysia has already started a B20 program, requiring diesel for transportation to be blended with 20% palm-based biodiesel. However, the nation is currently still implementing a B10 program. Increasing the biodiesel mandate can leverage cost parity to promote a more sustainable energy mix.
This move would bring two-fold benefits. Firstly, it would stabilize crude palm oil prices by lessening reliance on exports. Secondly, utilizing waste oils like used cooking oil and palm oil mill effluent oil as feedstock would bolster the circular economy.
Biodiesel has a significantly lower carbon intensity than fossil diesel, which helps reduce greenhouse gas emissions. For example, if Malaysia’s diesel consumption for transportation is about 8 billion liters in 2022, an additional 10% biodiesel blend would mean 0.8 billion liters of biodiesel. Given that biodiesel emits roughly 80% less carbon dioxide than fossil diesel, this could result in a reduction of about 1.7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually—a substantial decrease that would contribute significantly to mitigating climate change and achieving both national and global sustainability goals.

Amazing no one is talking about the windfall levy in all major forum.
When windfall levy was introduced.
Plantation sector drop from 8k to 3k.
Now the windfall levy is revised and so silent.

Now the planter will take lesser short position at major levy reference price.
Adding power to more long.
IF the reference price is 5 k.
Then eventually we will reach there.
IF not where to get tax from palm oil .

Malaysia reviewing windfall tax.
3% windfall tax on gross sale price is a lot considering margin of big planters are around 3 to 5 %.
Basically is 100% to 150% of after tax profit.
Adjusting the reference price upward also imply current price is a normal price thus giving long term support to CPO.


The new reference price will be the long term upward target of CPO.

Finally The government is willing to part more profit to the planters.
Those who lost planters vote lose the political game.

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/07/02/johari-suggests-reinvesting-windfall-tax-in-oil-palm-replanting/

https://api.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2024/07/1071292/ministry-plans-review-windfall-tax-ensure-collection-reflects

KUALA LUMPUR: The Plantation and Commodities Ministry plans to review the windfall tax in the 2025 Budget to allow the tax collection to reflect the current palm oil prices in the industry.

Its minister Datuk Seri Johari Abdul Ghani said the current formula used to calculate the tax was no longer applicable to the production of palm oil.

He added that the ministry will collaborate with the Malaysian Palm Oil Board to review the mechanism and ensure the collection of tax could be returned to planters.

By 2030 , When Brazil b25 and Indonesia B50 in place.
Do you think the CPO price will be lower than now?
Do you think TSH price will still be at 1.50 which is only 20 % from now when cpo and land price will surely be much higher than now as NUSANTARA will be much much more developed.
Just dividend already 20 % gain in 5 years.

2030
Indonesia b50 Export greatly reduced
2030 Brazil b25 Stop export
More and more Resource producing countries are keeping commodity for local use for downstreaming precious commodity.

Yesterday Soybean oil rally 4.5%.
Mthly MACD GC in coming mths for soybean oil.
FCPO will break higher high above 4500.
OTW to 7k by 2030.
Land value escalate higher and higher
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/biodiesel-mandate-domestic-demand-could-stop-brazilian-soybean-oil-exports-sources/

The stoppage of exports from Brazil, the world’s second largest exporter of soybean oil, will have a notable impact on the global trade balance.
India is the largest importer of soybean oil, with MY 2024-25 imports projected at 3.5 million mt, up 18.7% on year, according to the USDA.

Commodity superbull will cause further spike in land value.
Do not wait till Trump become president.
Trump policy is weak USD to boost local manufacturing.

Forever increasing Land value will be the best hedge against hyper inflation.

Plantation got super undervalued land which had not been revalued.
Yet still trading at below PB 1. Meaning you can buy the land of plantation company at 30 to 40% discount to book value.
And old book vs current market value may be like already 70% discount.
In TSH you got 80% discount (old book value vs current market value
+ further markdown 40%( 0.6 Price to Book ) discount on land value.
All the hidden land value in the Accounting.


https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/trump-re-election-may-lead-commodity-market-fragmentation-hsbcs-bloxham-says-2024-06-28/

HSBC's statistical model in May indicated a shift to a 'super bull' from a 'weak bull' phase in commodities, despite already elevated prices. According to HSBC, commodity prices are unlikely to return to their previous trend, and are set to stay "permanently higher".

Took 11 years to form this 6 mthly breakout.
First the price movement, reasons come later.

Half yearly chart BO

2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Take a look at 6 mth chart on TSH.
1st breakout after11 years downtrend.
This candle will form at the end of this mth.
IF it break out on 6mthly chart.
High chance it will be bullish until december for the 6 mth candle.
Then it will form a yearly break out for 2024.

Half yearly chart cannot manipulate.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/trump-re-election-may-lead-commodity-market-fragmentation-hsbcs-bloxham-says-2024-06-28/

HSBC's statistical model in May indicated a shift to a 'super bull' from a 'weak bull' phase in commodities, despite already elevated prices. According to HSBC, commodity prices are unlikely to return to their previous trend, and are set to stay "permanently higher".

If i am blackrock i will buy up all the plantation sector below pb 1 in malaysia.
Easy money.

The land value so high now until the boss so scared of his share being force sell.
The boss shifted share to sgx to avoid that.
Just in case any party want to grab the ownership from his hand.
Tsh is only trading at 10% of its true land value.
Thats why boss keep buying back the share when epf dispose their share in 2022 .
He so scared of losing his ownership.
Many party are jealous of the land TSH had.
Whole plantation sector got no more room for growth.
Yet TSH still got 50% empty land.
Basically if someone can privatise this company at 2 billion can sell the land for 10 billion. Easy money.
And as years pass by land value will go up to 15 billion then 20 billion.
TSH main growth doesnt come only from palm oil.
Its from land value.
And land value you cannot see from P & L.
And because its hidden from P & L.
Plantation sector growth are hidden and its always the prime target for privatisation at cheap price like Bstead.
Real NTA of TSH is not 1.50.