US is officially in stagflation.
Back in 70s stagflation period.
Commodity went up crazy.
Soybean oil went up from 10 to 50 usd in 2 -3 yrs time.
No record for palm oil then.

MKHOP , TSH and other plantation counters are in a very bullish environment.
Following later by Johor plantation ipo.
Plantation will be hot in 2024 and 2025.
3 Singapore banks
(UBS AG Singapore, UOB Kay Hian Pte. Ltd, DBS Bank Ltd.,
1 Singapore investment fintech platform (iFAST Financial Pte. Ltd)
already loaded more than 12% share in TSH.
They are hedging against stagflation.

A kind reminder.
Smart fund are going into lagged commodities like agriculture , grains and vegetable oil after taking a temp relief from gold , metal and energy.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-inflation-linked-equities-economy-gold-larry-mcdonald-2024-4

Trillions of dollars will flow out of growth stocks over the next decade, Larry McDonald predicted.

That's because money is heading into "inflation beneficiaries," or assets that rise if inflation stays high.

That could create a bull market in assets like gold, aluminum, and energy, he predicted in a recent interview.

But that could actually be good news for "inflation beneficiaries" — or areas of the market that will actually soar as prices remain elevated. Those beneficiaries include assets like nickel, aluminum, uranium, copper, gold, oil, and gas, McDonald said, estimating that the energy grid alone was likely worth around $2 trillion.

The shift will pull a tremendous amount of money from popular growth stocks, like the Magnificent Seven, to hard assets and commodities, he added. Some of those assets are already seeing an uptick in interest, with gold prices surging to a record high this week. 

"We're talking about a multi-trillion dollar migration of capital and nobody's prepared for it," McDonald said.

When Soros attacked the British pound, he was betting that Britain would no longer be able to maintain the exchange rate of the British pound against the U.S. dollar. And it is said that some people are now starting to snipe the Japanese yen.
Has anyone thought about sniping the US dollar?
Targeting other currencies is actually betting on the depreciation of the currency against the US dollar, while targeting the US dollar is actually betting on the devaluation of the US dollar against physical wealth, which is manifested in rising commodity prices.

In this sense, the attack on the US dollar has already begun.

The Great bullish trend in Commodity had been established.
No need promotion anymore.
Fund will slowly flow from tech stock to commodity like in dotcom bubble.
Just sit back relax and reap profit from al my commodity profit.

Looks like April is a Break Out month for TSH on mthly chart.
4 days left.

https://invezz.com/news/2024/03/25/palm-oil-price-forms-golden-cross-amid-indonesia-dmo-worries/
Palm oil prices have rebounded sharply in the past few months. They have soared from last year’s low of 3,185 MYR to over 4,200. On the daily chart, the price has rebounded above the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. It has also jumped above the key resistance point at 4,190 MYR, its highest point on July 25th.

Palm oil price has also formed a golden cross, where the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Therefore, the outlook for palm oil prices is bullish, with the next point to watch will be the 50% retracement at MYR 5,222, which is 23% above the current level.

If you think its War effect.
CPO should go back 2k by now

Dun talk about supply and demand .
Supply and demand doesnt raise the median price for cpo over the long term.
cpo raise from 2k to 4k during past 2 yrs.
This is purely inflation effect after Fed QE.
When ever Fed started QE cpo will double.
The demand and supply not much changes during this period.
Why there is a double in price.
Its double not 10%.

Its like your tomato in market.
You think there is a sudden surge of demand or drop in supply to warrant triple in price?

How can you be sure there wont be bigger war in europe.
When fed start to cut rate. It will need bigger war to prop up usd.

Last time 4k is the max resistance. 4k now is the support.
7k is now the max resistance. It will be revisted again on chart.
Whatever reason only u will find out in future.
At 5.5% interest shows that now is the worst demand in history for palm oil.
Fed cutting rate when palm oil is at support only means 4k is the starting point from now on.
When fed and every country start to cut rate to boost commodity demand.You think cpo still at 4k?

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/21/switzerland-becomes-first-major-economy-to-cut-interest-rates-in-surprise-move.html

1ST To go

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1297513/%E5%A4%A7%E9%A9%AC%E6%A3%95%E6%B2%B9%E4%BA%8C%E8%BF%9E%E6%B6%A8-%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%8C%E5%AD%A3%E6%88%96%E6%8C%91%E6%88%98rm4859

Malaysian palm oil rises for second consecutive year, may challenge RM4859 in second quarter
(Kuala Lumpur, 21st) Malaysian palm oil futures rose for the second consecutive trading day on Thursday (21st), following the strength of vegetable oils in Dalian and Chicago, but weak demand limited gains. As of midday, the benchmark palm oil contract for June delivery on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange FCPOc3 rose 0.33% to 4,286 ringgit ($911.33) per ton. A Kuala Lumpur-based trader said the contract opened higher amid strength in rival oilseeds overnight. The trader said, "On the physical side, the demand for palm oil is actually not that big. The supply is there, and there are competitors in some places that are relatively cheaper than palm oil. In order for crude palm oil (crude palm oil) futures to continue If prices rise, competitor oil products must rise."

Dalian palm oil contract DCPcv1 rose 1.26%, and soybean oil contract DBYcv1 rose 1.53%. Soybean oil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 0.99%. As palm oil competes for global vegetable oil market share, it is affected by changes in related oil prices.

Freight survey agencies Intertek Testing Services and Amspec Agri said that Malaysian palm oil product exports increased by 7.4% to 16.3% from March 1 to 20 compared with the same period last month.

Driven by the C wave, palm oil FCPOc3 may rise to a range of 4,751 to 4,859 ringgit per ton in the second quarter. This is the third wave in a three-wave cycle that started from the September 2022 low of RM3,220. It has reached 100% forecast level of RM4,399. Based purely on forecast analysis, Wave C may end around RM4,399 or extend to RM5,144. However, retracement analysis of the RM7,229 downtrend suggests that the wave will continue. The resistance level of RM4,166 (23.6% level) has been breached.
This breakout opens the way to the 38.2% level of RM4,751. A rise to RM4,751 will prove that this wave has the ability to rise to RM5,144. A double bottom around RM3,220 will also be confirmed when the market climbs to RM4,751.

The model shows a higher target of RM5,698. Several highs around RM4,043 hit in September 2023, November 2023 and January 2024 have combined to provide strong support, limiting any correction to current levels. The C wave consists of three smaller waves. Calculation of the wavelet c on the daily chart reveals a set of predicted levels that control the market more precisely. This trend has been well above the 61.8% forecast level of RM4,110. A rise to RM4,474 is possible. The uptrend looks stable and dynamic. The contract has just completed a pullback toward the downtrend line. It is poised to test the resistance zone between RM4,399 and RM4,474, which may trigger a proper correction.

When commodity superbull year ,all downstream , manufacturing, infra & construction will be hit hard.

Thanks to fed Gold broke 2200 as expected.
Oil otw to 90. 100 to be seen later.
Palm oil c u at 4500 and 5000.
From the moment Fed increase rate all commodity retrace by 30 to 50%.
Palm oil also retrace from 7k+ to 3300.(50%)
Now when fed give rate cut expectation until eventual rate cut.
We will see commodity to apreciate by 20-30% depending on cuts.
For palm oil we can see range from 4k to 6k.
2024 onwards is commodity superbull year.

TSH sold 10% landbank can fetch 760 million at 3 yrs ago valuation.
How you know TSH wont sell another 10% at 1 billion this year at current high land price environment.
In that case the NTA will balloon to over 2.50.
Cash position in hand will be more than1 billion.
So dont always use past performance to judge TSH.
And also dont judge TSH current old book value to value TSH potential.
TSH can keep selling 10 % land every 3-4 yrs and get over 10 billion cash in hand.
How many years of profit do u think TSH need to make to get 10 billion cash.
at 100 million every years need 100 years.

Whoever want to sell already sold.
So when will the banker push down for everyone to buy back.
Thanks in advance.

Fcpo corection almost over.
Going to 4500 short term, 5000 midterm in sight.

2006 Jul BOJ increase rate from 0 to 0.25
Technology index drop 70% from 30 pt to 11pt . Penta drop 90% for 3 yrs.
Plantation increase from 3k to 8k in 3 yrs.
So Watch out. Japan rate increase is good for commodity but lousy for Tech.
What will happen this time?

If people interested to buy cheap now .
They will only make it more expensive.

Previous high cpo price were considered a one time spike due to Ukraine war.

High CPO price now is now understood to be caused by low production yield.
And it will take many years to correct it. Doubtful it can be corrected due to high tax and shortage of land and labor .
So High CPO price above 4k- 7K will be here to stay like 2k as support in the past.

Cost of fertilizer is also substantially lower due to low nat gas which is different in 2022 when high cpo also coupled with super high nat gas .
Margin this round will be much higher compared to previous hike in 2022.

TSH will enjoy increase yield bucking the sector trend going forward due to aggressive replanting on 50% unplanted land. The new replanting will be using high yield seedling.

Many dont realise that Gold breaking all time high represent there is a devaluation of USD in process.
All commodity based in USD will be revalued upwards. Their long term MA is going upwards. If you think gold 3k is impossible . Just wait and see. I predicted gold will break ATH 1 year ago.

No worries. Profits from fcpo and gold waiting to buy when it come down .

FCPO monthly MACD just Golden cross this month.
While soybean oil weekly already GC .
More upside ahead.
Any drop is good chance to collect.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1293433/supportline

TSH Resources Bhd was seen taking a breather this week after a strong rally in the previous week.

At its current trading level, the share is hovering near a recent high level of RM1.17, which in crossing would see the resumption of an uptrend towards RM1.49 and RM1.64.

The slow-stochastic remains healthy in overbought territory at 87 points, while the daily moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, indicating a sustained uptrend.

Support for the share is pegged to RM1.02 and 96 sen.

Soybean oil going break 50.
It will push palm oil higher.
A higher palm oil will push soybean oil higher.
Helping each other.

On wkly and mthly chart .
TSH had 1st break out on Feb 2022 from the 12 years down trend since May 2014.
It had finished a 2 years correction. Bounced off on Jul 2023.
It will coninue the reversal of 12 years downtrend and break above the previous high May be in 6 to 12 mths time.
The longer it is depressed , the higher the next high will be.
So this is a patient counter.

Gold is expected to hit 3k after adjusted inflation.
Gold oil ratio hinted oil shld be above 200 if gold hit 3k.
What about palm oil as an alternative fuel for oil?
So do you think 4k as support is logical and realistic?

2008, 2012 2022 plantation index all touch 9000 when ever fcpo reach above 4k.
The only difference is this time 4k is the support . Past 3 time 4k is the resistance.
Plantation will reach 9k for sure.This time 9 k will become support.

Yesterday, Soybean oil rally and otw to 60 again will push fcpo above 4200 soon.

Otw breaking 1.20 on monthly chart.
After that firework for TSH.

If Tsh fully develops its land bank.
Its revenue and profit will be more or less like united plantation.
Uplant trading at pb ratio of 3.
Tsh pb ratio only 0.76,plenty of growth capacity.
TSH should at least be trading at 1.2 pb with its huge land bank in short term.
TSH nta will rise to 1.70 soon when the final payment for land disposal comes in.
TSH  land assets alone should be valued at least rm5 per share base on current market value.
So even if Tsh trade at 3 x book value 3 x 1.7 = 5.10 like Uplant is normal.
Simply because Tsh 20 yrs old book value is just too low which  doesnt reflect reality.

seekingalpha.com/news/4077797-president-biden-predicts-federal-reserve-will-cut-interest-rates

The best timing to cut rate is march , Joe.
Or you can give the credit to Trump.

Even Fed had given up pressing down commodities.
The naysayers and shorties are thinking they are more powerful than Fed.
If FED is successful the plantation index should have broken strong support.
And now Fed had failed to break the support, the plantation index will now break previous high naturally.

Plantantion index will break 9k in the future .
Now not many buying yet.
That is when every Tom dick and hairy started very bullish about Plantation stock.
Then firework will begin.

Soybean oil started wkly MACD gc slowlygoing towards 60 again. FCPO going break 4100 today.

What is the scarce resource in palm oil sector now?
It is land. No more land to expand.
Many plantation company already almost reach their max in usable land.

But TSH got 50% more to grow because she still had 50% unplant area.
What is the premium for the spare land.
Simple calculation is 2 x market caps now.
3 billion .
or current 30 million / qtr x4 = 120 million /annum x 2.5 (latest high yielding seedling + larger land bring lower cost)= 300 mill x 10 pe = 3 billion during normal price
30 million /qtr is based on normal cpo price at 3350.
If based on 4k and above more than 3 billion even up to 5 billion.
Thats why TSH pe is 16 now.
High pe mean high growth and high potential for bigger future profit.
With 50% spare land it can only grow bigger and bigger.
Do you know the feeling when everyone cant expand and grow but watching you having 50% more land to irrigate while price keep rising due to dropping in production sector wide?
Those thinking TSH going smaller and smaller just based on current profit is shortsighted.
It is so hard to expand now through acquisition as the land cost is so high now.
For example, any company want to acquire TSH to get 120k ha land to expand will need to fork out at least 6 billion to buy the land alone based on market rate now .

All the RSS is so daring to short now and eventually will buy back as when FED cant press down Gold mean something very fundamental had changed.

So i hope they short more and rebound will be strong.

Gold to oil ratio should be 16
According to gold price now , oil price will be 130 eventually
And Gold still got leg to move up.
What price will be Palm oil and other vegetable oil as a RE alternative .

There is a bullish scenario being set up behind here and plantation stock is still at infant stage of bull run.
The good show will start when it break above 9k hopefully in 6 to 12 mth time.

The latest ruling by WTO should reverse the 10 years downtrend of plantation .
The downtrend of plantation started when the EU started to be biased against palm oil and started all the smear campaign.

Back to above 9k otw.
TSH above rm2 otw.

DEN: RI To Replace Fossil Gasoline With Bio-gasoline
https://gapki.id/en/news/2024/01/25/den-ri-to-replace-fossil-gasoline-with-bio-gasoline/

BRIN: Palm-Based Bioenergy Best Option To Replace Fossil Fuels
https://gapki.id/en/news/2024/03/04/brin-palm-based-bioenergy-best-option-to-replace-fossil-fuels/

FEATURE: RI Gearing Up For Full-blown Bioenergy Production
https://gapki.id/en/news/2024/01/29/feature-ri-gearing-up-for-full-blown-bioenergy-production/

Government Designing Strategic Plan On B40 Development
https://gapki.id/en/news/2022/01/21/government-designing-strategic-plan-on-b40-development/

One day Indonesia will keep all palm oil for own energy consumption.
Do you remember what happen to palm oil price when Indonesia ban export?
Broke 7k. This time according to yearly chart will break 10k .

Really, Indonesia doesn't need EU.
Maybe only Malaysia does.

Plantation tycoon gonna double or triple their wealth again as usual by then.
No wonder rich always buy land. Especially fertile land.

Why palm oil is trading at premium over other oil?
Because palm oil is now a premium oil compared to others.
Unlike the past when palm oil is always the cheapest oil when others are scorned at.
Now palm oil is now used as alternative energy source by indonesia.
It had more uses and applications then other vegetable oil.
It is also now bench mark against fossil fuel as alternative and it is only just beginning.
When there is a looming energy crisis by 2025, Indonesia will launch b40 asap due to oil price over 100 again.
Malaysia launching B30 by 2030.
There are more demand now then supply.
If Indonesia, malaysia ,singapore and other ASEAN members use more and more palm oil for saf.

Wonder whether there will be enough palm oil for export from indonesia in future if this trend continue.

Palm oil will lead other vegetable oil in price in future.

If crypto and gold both can break prevbious high.
Sooner or later oil and palm will also break previous high.
Just take time.

Welcome Stagflation.
From movement of gold it indicates stagflation is here.
Predicted 2 years ago that shortsighted movement by fed will only result in stagflation.
Commodity is stagflation best investment choice.
Plantation is backed by valuable land assets, strong cash flow ,high dividend is best choice.
Best part is it is still cheap.
Otw to 9k plantation index.
TSH otw to above rm 2

He who control chip control ai.
He who control energy control chip.
Warren buffett invest in energy to control ai.

Palm oil is going to be 60% used for energy in future.
Palm oil is forever going uptrend as it is more n more non food centric.
It is supported by basic need as food.
Added premium by growing industrial needs.
Now it will welcome explosive growth in green energy consumption due to Saf and Ai explosive needs.

TSH is even smarter.
They are building 4 to 5 biomass plant.
Venturing into solar business.
Investing into energy future via circular economy.
And circular economy is plantation sector next phase of growth.
......

What do we lack in the AI era - energy |
Last month, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman finally acknowledged what researchers have been saying for years — that the AI industry is heading toward an energy crisis. Speaking at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Altman warned that the next wave of generative AI systems will consume far more power than expected and that energy systems will struggle to cope.
AI models require large amounts of data and computing resources to train. A complex model may require hundreds of GPUs to run continuously for weeks or even months. According to research, the electricity required to train a large deep learning model is equivalent to the carbon emissions produced by five cars during their lifetime.
The development of AI technology has promoted the continuous expansion of data center scale. It is estimated that global data center energy consumption accounts for approximately 1%-3% of global electricity consumption, and this proportion is growing. Data centers not only require large amounts of power to support computing, but also require additional energy to maintain the operation of cooling systems to prevent servers from overheating.

https://bnnbreaking.com/world/indonesia/indonesian-palm-oil-giant-anj-faces-potential-sale-amid-share-value-dip

TSH golden chance to expand indonesia footprint.
I think a good chance for TSH to raise capital in sgx to buy over the disposal if chances arise.

FEB is over soon.
Read the following post again.
Majority Agri commodity should have found its bottom soon.

Stock: [TSH]: TSH RESOURCES BHD

1 week ago | Report Abuse

Prepare for soybean , palm oil and other agriculture commodity bull run to come after completing the 4th bottom by feb.
Current plantation stock is still at infant stage of rally.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ZS1!/dHl5Nc8D-LET-S-PLAY-A-GAME-FRACTALS/

Our projected timeline was 26th February 2024 to complete the 1750 days cycle.
Expected price bottom we projected was the 1170 bottom to complete the 4 bottoms in the counterpart fractal.

Now we expect the next side of the cycle to steadily build price up.

The time will come when Government reduce the windfall levy.
couple with bullish palm oil trend on monthly and qtrly chart.
It will spur Plantation index above 9k.
Bringing klci above 1900 pt.
This will start the road to 2500 - 3000.

I wonder the local fund can short down the fcpo price to stop the plantation index longterm uptrend.

FCPO monthly macd golden cross in feb.
Qtrly will breakout in march, 1st breakout sign appearing in 7th qtr bar(2 years).
Very strong bullish sign for palm oil.

ICAP boss predicted klci to go to 3k in few years time.
If that is true plantation index will break 9k high .
Plantation index always move in tandem with klci.
Plantation heavyweight will also move klci.
Technology stock doesnt move klci.