TSH is not so favoured in the past due to some reasons

1. Insane condemn relentlessly for personal reason. Most retailers will avoid this counter .
Then who is buying in big tickets recently? Definitely they bought for some long term reason as wkly and monthly chart already show reversal sign and breaking out imminent.
Thus they must have known of any short term blip or bad news like production drop (probably due to flooding).
Then why are they still buying so much. Any short term blip is always good to flush out contra and weak investor.

2. Dividend yield. /Retailers and long term fund love dividend. So likely they will choose high dividend plantation counter.
If a plantation counter keep paying high dividend it might mean they have limited fund for replanting and acquisition. If they also servicing high debts mean they have limited chance for acquisition for growth.
No replanting will cause future susutainable in revenue and no acquisition means no much growth.
So it might signal you may be paying a current historical high price for their limited growth future.


Tsh is utilizing their cash these past few years for

1. Automation. this increase future profitability and these will be reflected gradually in future as it is not a one day process since this is a big company.
2.Replanting. TSH got a lot of spare land for replanting . TSH now have plently of spare cash for replanting as well. Replanting need alot of spare cash not many plantation enjoy that. This assured investor their revenue is sustainable and will ensure growth as well.
3. Acquisition. TSH reserve a lot of cash and will have no problem making acquisition for future growth.TSH is also net cash soon and will have no issue to borrow from bank or raise capital from Bursa or SGX.
4. Buidling 4-5 biogas plant and solar project. Everyone knows there is a increasing trend in power tariffs. Especially green power fetch a even higher price.
This investment will buffer them from future rising cost and also gain additional profit when sell back to power grid. ESG rating will be better as well.
Looking around how many plantation company are building so many biogas plant?

Since TSH going to net cash soon.
So they might increase their dividend yield in future.
Then current price will be the a cheap price when you look back in future.

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2024/01/25/golden-agri-resources-and-verborg-group-forge-strategic-partnership-for-tropical-oils-supply/

Holland buying lots of palm oil.
Europe say dont want palm oil but action speaks louder than words!
With soybean oil out of market due to red sea problem.
They need more palm oil for replacement.
They want sustainable palm oil.
Good news for big company with sustainable practice.
Bad news for small planters as most of them do not.

Why i like TSH
Insanely cheap and super unvervalued.
Insanely condemned (best point)
Boss is a very filial son to his parent . This type of boss won't con you.

Invest in Plantation stock is like buy property.
Get rental and enjoy the value appreciation over long term.

If tsh can generate 1 billion revenue per annum.
it can at least generate 20 to 30 billion for the next 20 yrs.
Why is it only valued at 1.3 billion now.
Current planted land mass is only 50% of its total land mass.
So why a 30 to 60 billion potential revenue generating business over the next 20 yrs is only valued at 1.3 billion now?

If TSH able to give only 30% of profit as dividend.
30 billion x 10% margin = 3 billion x 30% = 900 million
u will be getting didivend over 70 sen and that is not considering any windfall profit or higher profit along the way.
Basically rm1 now is risk free.

If cpo at 4k yet production yield is dropping.
It mean 4k is not a high price that will kill high price.
Meaning current price is too low to grow production so it can only go higher until it find a higher price that can boost production.

Plantation index hit 9000 point when palm oil is at 4k in 2011 that is the resistance until now.
Now the 4k resistance is almost turning to support hence plantation index will break 9k point in the future.
Remember all the lagged index like utitlites ,property and construction already run a lot and some even break previous high.
It will rotate to plantation as it had not break previous high and not even started running high even though fundamental like CPO price and Land Value had changed drastically higher.
Most plantation company like TSH still carry land value at super cheap old book value .
TSH NTA shld be around 6 to 7 if revalued.

Phillips 66 PSX is on the verge of launching its Rodeo Renewed plant, a revolutionary renewable diesel facility in Rodeo, CA.

The significant step forward comes after successfully navigating a comprehensive environmental review, marking a milestone in the company’s transition from traditional oil refining to renewable fuel production.

Phillips 66’s Rodeo Renewed project is poised to become the world’s largest renewable fuel production facility upon completion. This ambitious project is expected to significantly reduce the facility’s greenhouse gas emissions by 50%, as it ceases to process crude oil. The facility’s conversion aligns with broader industry trends toward renewable energy sources and reflects growing environmental consciousness in fuel production.

The Rodeo Renewed plant represents a significant shift in energy production toward more sustainable practices. Phillips 66’s initiative is a response to both regulatory pressures and market trends favoring renewable energy sources. While the project promises substantial environmental benefits, it also highlights the ongoing challenges and complexities involved in transitioning from traditional fossil fuel sources to renewable energy.

soybean oil had reach bottom and wkly gc is coming.
Monthly double bottom formed.
Palm oil will cross 4k soon as soybean oil march toward 60 again .

TSH can make decent profit at price around 3200 to 3300 k base on recent qtrs.
Going forwatrd above 4k to 5 k.
You know how much every rm100 increase will bring?

Soybean Oil Rises With More US Demand Forecast for Biofuels.

The HUGE philip 66 world largest biofuel plant will be operating in a few weeks.

The Phillips 66 facility in Rodeo, California, has received environmental approval to start operating soon, a Zacks report said. That pushed most-active soybean oil futures up 2.7%, the biggest daily advance since. Dec. 7.

The plant — a former crude oil refinery — will use waste oils, fats, greases and vegetable oils to produce an initial 800 million gallons of renewable fuels per year, including renewable diesel, renewable gasoline and sustainable aviation fuel, according to the company.

“This is a big project,” said Victor Martins, Latin America risk manager at brokerage Amius Ltd., and is an indication of more demand for soy oil in the US. Palm oil and crude oil futures also advanced on Monday.

Both soybean oil and palm oil found their bottom on monthly chart.
Soon FCPO will be above 4k

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-corn-prices-tumble-three-042452394.html

Effect of Nusantara radiates thru whole ASEAN region.
Nusantara is new future Capitol .

JB cannot compare.

TSH finishing Monthly MACD correction above 0.
GC in feb soon.
Continue Monthly uptrend towards rm2 in 2024.
Fire element is indeed good for Earth element plantation.
Do not wait until Nusantara complete its 1st phase then buy.
At current price Nusantara is not priced in at all.

Wall Street’s Call to Diversify into Commodities as Inflation Figures Redefine Market Expectations

According to their 2024 outlook reports – a long list of Wall Street banks have raised their price forecasts for the year ahead and are advising their clients to shift away from Stocks and Bonds and diversify into Commodities for 2024.

JP Morgan, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs believe the risk-to-reward in Equities and Bonds is now heavily skewed to the downside. While on the flipside, Commodities look much more appealing and present the most attractive risk-to-reward heading into the end of the year and 2024.

Last week, a normal week for markets became something extraordinary after the closely watched Consumer Price and Producer Price Inflation figures gave traders a greenlight to declare that the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation was finally over.

U.S Producer Price Inflation cooled off in October, reversing a three-month trend that had seen the cost of energy push up prices. The Producer Price Index, fell 0.5% on a monthly basis – its largest monthly drop since April 2020.

Meanwhile, a day earlier, U.S Consumer Price Inflation also fell more than expected to 3.2% in October – the first decline in four months.

The Fed held its benchmark interest rate steady at a 22-year high this month. Traders had put the likelihood of another rate hike at 30% just before the PPI and CPI releases, but by Wednesday that had been priced out altogether. Instead, they moved to ratchet up the likelihood of a cut, with the prospect of a cut by March soaring from 23% on Monday to 86% by Wednesday’s close.

Anticipating Record Highs in Commodity Prices Amidst Shifting Rate Cut Expectations

Right now, we are seeing the market narrative rapidly shift away from “higher-for-longer interest rates” to “bigger-than-expected rate cuts in 2024”.

As traders know – “the bigger the rate cut, the more bullish it will be for Commodity prices”.

If history is anything to go by, then this new shift in narrative almost certainty sets the stage for Commodity prices to hit new record highs in the coming weeks and months ahead.

According to UBS, the Fed will start cutting rates as soon as March, on the expectation that the U.S economy will slide into recession by the second quarter. This in turn will prompt the central bank to cut rates by 275 basis points next year, with the terminal rate plunging to 1.25% by early 2025.

The big question now is when will the Fed start cutting interest rates?

The physic in commodity world is , kill high price with higher price.
But biden try to kill high price with low price using interest rate.
So it will result in even higher price.
Please obey the law of physic

If biden win for 2nd term.
Prepare all commodity to fly high because he doesnt care anymore .
All hard tactic by him to press down commodity prices will open the door for super inflation.
This will leave a big mess for opposition win next term as planned.

See soybean oil is at double bottom of monthly chart.
And cant go down much further.
when both palm oil and soybean oil found their hardest bottom.
Whats next?

Why so many investor want to invest in those lapsap counter?
Because they cannot tolerate slow win.
They want fast win and fast win follow by fast lose. You got no time to respond.
Slow win mean slow lose u got time to respond.
Warren Buffet taught slow earn is the secret to success.
Even you buy most undervalued plantation stock and keep for 10 years.
You will find that your investment grow slowly over time with dividend and capital.
No need heart attack day and night.

If you want play play for fun in those punter counter for entertainment then no problem

中国等国大举购买美国农地 具体数量不明确

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1265407/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%AD%89%E5%9B%BD%E5%A4%A7%E4%B8%BE%E8%B4%AD%E4%B9%B0%E7%BE%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%86%9C%E5%9C%B0-%E5%85%B7%E4%BD%93%E6%95%B0%E9%87%8F%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%8E%E7%A1%AE

Why buy so much. Many sifu say plantation no future.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/01/18/indonesia039s-biomass-consumption-target-in-2024-nearly-triples

TSH going to build 4 to 5 in future. YTLpower got clean energy.
TSH also got many clean energy power plant in future .
Most likely near to the Kalimantan Greentech park which they sold to the Indonesia government.
Now you see the synergy?
And why TSH is not paying as much dividend as other4s?
They need a lot of fund to expand.

Further boosting its operations, HLIB said, TSH will expand its renewable energy efforts into Indonesia by investing in four to five biogas plants over the next few years.

Just get ready for 4300 in a few mths time.

SGX no movement for 2 days....even bursa bloodbath. No effect over there.
Here so panic. If SGX no drop here cannot drop more btw.
IF you want drop further , u must sell down there as well.

SGX TSH still at 0.285 x 3.51= rm1.00

2024 Middle east war ,
50% chance - Korean peninsular , China -Taiwan
2025 War in Nato Europe (80%).
Now can Cut rate and USD stay strong .

You know why until now Fed dun dare to U turn and cut rate?
Once they cut commodity will fly again.
Once they cut USD will crash.
So the only thing they can do is export War. To drive USD up.
And start to Pivot slowly.
all the farmers in US now are voting for anyone non Biden because they cant borrow money as the interest rate is too high. If can vote Trump the best as he will 100% cut rate.
Now Powell face getting sack by both parties.
The more hawkish then more they will pivot.
Just watch and see.

CPO started bull run when QE started.
Ended the bull run when QE stopped
It will start another bull run again when Fed start cut rate and QE.
Now it is already accumulating strength to break out above 4k.
CPO had already tested its bottom during this QT period.
If cost go higher then of course it will translate to higher CPO price.
It just take time to manifest

In order to push up plantation sector which is quite big market cap, some sector have to go down .
Most likely are sectors which will not cause much impact to index.

If the current covernment want to garner support from palm oil industry , you need to give them sweet like you give to all the other bodies.
If the current covernment want the industry to increase productivity and capacity, you need to give them more profit.

After loosening the price control of petrol , chicken ,egg, water, electricity and soon sugar .
Windfall profit levy will be on the table soon.

Johari also said the government is looking into issues raised by the industry regarding the windfall profit levy on palm oil amid rising costs of production, but adding that further discussions were needed.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/01/11/plantation-and-commodities-ministry-to-look-into-windfall-tax-issue
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/09/18/malaysia-reviewing-windfall-tax-on-palm-oil-industry
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia is reviewing an existing windfall tax on the palm industry and hopes to complete it next year (2024), plantations and commodities minister Datuk Seri Fadillah Yusof said on Monday.

Planters in Malaysia, the world's second largest producer of palm oil, have for years asked the government to reassess the tax rate and the threshold for the windfall profit tax.

High cost now for Plantation is good in the long term because it will force the sector to go mechanized and automation as it is still human intensive.
Which will bring next growth phase for the sector as a whole.
A lot of room for improvement as a huge industry.

Every sector faces rising cost . That is not a reason to be bias against plantation.
More cost coming for heavy capital industry like manufacturing ,property, construction, infra structure and renewable. In that sense why people are still investing in them?

For those investing in renewable energy . Long term prospect looks dim.
As usual malaysia always pick up those unfavoured investment like ev,esg and renewable. These are gradually dumped in the western.
https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/renewable-energy-investments

The Green Mirage: Unmasking the Harsh Realities of Renewable Energy Investments

In late 2021, we made a bold and deeply contrarian call: we predicted massive capital flows into renewable energy could potentially become history’s worst malinvestment ever. Our call looks correct three years later and the consequences have emerged with a vengeance.  
Over the past six months, several notable wind and solar projects have been canceled, delayed, or impaired due to rising costs. Stocks that were once market favorites have now pulled back hugely. Wind turbine manufacturer Orstead is off 73% from its peak and 47% this year alone. Renewable provider Nextera is off 50% from its peak and 30% this year. Hydrogen maven Plug Power is off an incredible 95% from its peak and 68% this year. The Invesco Solar ETF is off 58% from its peak and 35% this year.

In recent months, Orstead has taken a $4 bn write-off on its offshore US wind projects, canceled its Norwegian projects, and fired its CEO. In November, Siemens withdrew its wind turbine manufacturing plant in Portsmouth, Virginia. A September UK offshore wind concession auction failed to attract a single bid. Renewable proponents, who claim costs are lower than conventional energy sources, argued the relatively high 44 GBP tariff was insufficient to encourage wind development.  


We concluded that between 50 and 70% of the fall in wind and solar energy’s LCOE was attributable directly to lower capital and energy costs. We wrote:

If our models are correct and energy prices and capital costs rise going forward, the impact on renewable energy will be dramatic. We calculate that solar costs could increase from 7 cents to 20 cents per kWh while wind costs could rise from 4.5 cents to 6.0 cents per kWh. Nearly a decade of cost savings would be wiped out in both cases.

Instead of falling to meet conventional energy requirements, we predicted renewable costs would rise – an incredibly contrarian view at the time. This is precisely what is happening today. While many articles cite rising interest rates and materials (a function of higher energy), they treat these cost pressures as temporary. We disagree. A decade of abundant energy and loose liquidity helped mask renewables’ poor efficiency. That is now over.

One of reason plantation will be hot for 2024 is several plantation ipo coming.
Johor plant is coming.
If sector no hot. How to ipo.
Cannot disappoint Sultan and Jcorp.

Ytlpower and ytl also dormant and down for 10 PLUS years like plantation sector. If everything priced in, no need invest.

Ytl investor are truly well deserved rewarded.
Plantation sector time will come like utitlities.

Its chairman, Kelvin Tan Aik Pen, said the secondary listing on SGX will “facilitate a new phase of development” for the company.

“While continuing to grow our plantation portfolio, we will also be open to businesses on solar energy and decarbonisation for our 100,000 ha of sustainable forestry asset,” he said.

https://my.linkedin.com/jobs/view/senior-solar-project-manager-at-tsh-resources-berhad-3779315909

United Plantations Berhad is a plantation group in Malaysia with a total cultivated land bank
of approximately 63,000 hectares.

United Plantations has successfully acquired Pinehill Plantations Estates in Malaysia, which is an agricultural land area of 3,642 Hectares including subject properties, from Pinehill Group for a sum of RM413.57 million (RM46,000/Ha) in 2019.

In 2019, 3642 Ha land bought at= 415 million
United Plantation, 63K ha land bank
Market Cap = 7.8 billion

TSH 120000 Ha Landbank= 1.2 billion
Mean plenty of land and growth for TSH.

Klk original plan is to buy 97 ha of bplant at 3.5 billion.
Tsh 120 k ha only at 1.5 billion.

If u got 1.5 billion u can buy 120k ha land at tsh.
120k ha palm oil land that is worth billions.
So cheap. 1.5 billion can buy rich land mass bigger than singapore.

No wonder so many plantation company ended up privatise.
So cheap , the market valuation is so priced in and distorted.
No wonder Bplant ended up privatized so cheap.

TSH Resources Berhad is a company that primarily earns from its plantations. Over the years, TSH has increased its plantation footprint and activity with a healthy expansion of its land bank and planted areas across East Malaysia, as well as in Sumatera and Kalimantan, Indonesia.

As of June 2021, TSH Resources has a total land bank of 132,000 hectares in both Indonesia and Malaysia .

TSH Resources Bhd announced the sale Oil palm plantation measuring 13,214 hectares of land together with uncertified land adjoning the plantation measuring 683.36 hectares in North Kalimantan for RM731.09 million.

13, 214 hectare = 731 million

132,000 hectre = 7.31 billion

7.31 billion / 1.381billion share

5.30 per share @2021

2024 after deduct land sales at kalimantan = 4.80 per share
NTA now is only 1.48
The true net asset value of TSH is more than RM5.
Not including other assets.
If 13000 hectare is valued at 730 million in 2021
why 120000 hectare at 2024 is valued only at 1.3 billion market caps (not considering other valuable assets like cash )?
Everything is priced in ?
You mean the attap house (10 x smaller n land size ) next to your bungalow is worth 100k and yours worth only 200k?

Thats why klk buy over was rejected because its too cheap.
They wont let klk buy over at so cheap price.
If klk were to offer 6 to 8 billion they sure sell.
3.5 billion they rather eat it up themselves.

So u think Ltat or klk is wise to take private bplant at 3.5 billion?

Tsh sold 680 million land parcel comprises about 10% of total landbank.
That is non productive land.if it is productive land price will even be higher.
That price is 2 to 3 yrs ago price not current inflationary environment.
10 x 680 million is 6.8billion .

Base on current inflationary land price environment.
All tsh land is worth 6 to 8 billion at least.
So u think 3.5 billion enough to make boss sell his stake?

If its not revealed to public.How can it be priced in?
If its not public aware means its grossly undervalued by market.

If tsh were to sell all their plantation land at current market land price.
It will fetch them 6 to 8 billion . Period.
If u can fork out 3.5 billion u cant even buy over tsh coz the boss wont sell.

Bplant profit and operation is terrible and far far worse than TSH
Yet it can sell at 3.6 billion market cap almost 3 x of TSH.
KLK and LTAT doesnt think its expensive.

Just benchmark similar plantation company with Bplant you know roughly what the sellable value is.
Dun just value it by using operation profit.
Your property can't rent out temporarily doesnt mean it shld sell at 50% discount.

Utility downtrend for 5 yrs broke out and uptrend for 1 year in 2023. It had been bullish for 1 year and its coming to its end soon probably.
Plantation downtrend for 9 years, broken out downtrend in 2022 feb and finish correction in 2023 resume reversal in 2024.

Plantation downtrend is already over in monthly chart in 2022.
2023 is pull back and consolidating to resume uptrend reversal in 2024.

If KLCI is marching to 1700. They cannot do without plantation as it is one of the heavy weight sector.
It is still very undervalued.


EPF had dumped a lot of Planation stock in 2022 for several pay out in last 2 years.
PM already directed local fund need to concentrate more on local market.
Time for them to buy back what they sold off.

Everyday pass by Tsh and plantation index is nearer to Monthly Bolliger Band SQUEEZE breakout.
This is a Monthly BB squeeze break out.
Worth to take note.

A Monthly Bollinger Band Squeeze Break out is coming for TSH and plantation index within one or two mth.
Are u ready?

The ONLY glove related counter that make a continuous accumulated profit of

105 million for 13 consecutive qtrs even after covid. Beating all glove counters.

still valuing at 150 million market caps now.
Crazy super undervalued.

It will break if people can see the potential in Esceram.
Moreover profit over 65 mill for past 8 qtrs still valued at 150 milllion.
Think its a bit crazy .

K+ 180 million vol VS Esceram 18 mil vol.
Esceram still Super undervalued

K+ loss 250 mill over past 8 Qtrs basically wiped out all Super profit earn thru Covid from 2020
Valuation at 270 million.

Esceram earned 65 mill past 8 qtrs only valued at 150 mil

Expecting K+ volume to swim to Esceram

Another prophecy came true....

Stock: [TSH]: TSH RESOURCES BHD

1 month ago | Report Abuse

Most likely us will want war, and commodity will fly high to make import inflation into china.There is no point to keep commodity cheap for china anymore.
If us fails in tech, they will want capitalise on commdoity price as she is a commodity rich country.
Inflation is really not their real concern.

Ready Get set Go..are u ready to break 40 sen decisively soon