Many years ago.Average tech pe is around 7 to 10. Since when tech pe is around 20 to 100. Yes, since qe started.
Now back to square one. Low interest rate era is dead and time to wake up.

Their intention is to bury all comment with spam.
So that no one can read anything .
Hence repetitive spam all days long.

By jun next year .Boss would have sbb over 100 million share.
Public float will drop below 30%.Retailer getting crowded out.

Cant imagine tesla dropping to usd50 next year.
Retailers still love tech. More to drop.

Some note on few top  shareholders disposing as highlighted by some naysayers.


1.They dispose and boss buy back. So no effect. You can go around see in bursa any boss buy back all the share dispose by other top holding shareholder.
So far i cannot find any.

2.After they dispose what they gonna do you do not know. But only thing they can do is only buy and cannot sell anymore.

3.After their dispose the boss will definetly reward shareholder more because he invested alot more now.So can expect a higher return to shareholder going forward as it turn net cash generating machine like inno.

4. A pb 2.5x inno with a 0.69x pb tsh means the boss is pushing up inno while collecting tsh. Probably a distribute of inno to shareholder is warranted in future.

5. 0.69x pb for tsh means a lot of growth for tsh infuture as tsh got more undeveloped and maturing plant compared to inno.

6.Back in 2020 when inno is at 30 sen pb below 0.5.If someone tell you inno gonna be 1.50 pb 2.6.Probably will be laughed at and repeatedly scorned.

2 billion more by 2050.
70 million more humans per year x avg consumtion 14.39 kg
=1 billion kg more  of edible oil needed Every year.
600 million kg from palm oil.

We need 20 billion kg more of edible oil by 2050.
12 billion kg will come from palm oil.

Why palm oil is key for food security and sustainability

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1085493/why-palm-oil-is-key-for-food-security-and-sustainability

Among the main knock-on concerns associated with a worsening climate is its implications on our food security. Put simply, the United Nations estimates that by 2050, the world must feed two billion more people, when food demand will be 56% greater than in 2010.

Ultimately, what does this mean for you, the consumer? The WWF recommends that "the best thing we can do is support sustainable palm oil and avoid boycotts, since we know substitutions with other vegetable oils can lead to even further environmental and social harm".

So, if sustainability matters to you, choose certified-sustainable palm oil.

When indonesia become top 5 largest economy in future.
What is the land price in nusantara?
Just keep some tsh for your children,they will be grateful to you.

All these anti palm oil warcry are just political gimmicks to raise stakes before final negotiation conclude after wto decision in few wks time.
And ignorant will think its the end of palm oil and smart fund will be prepared to move in.

EU need diversify reliance on russia china and usa. And asean its very important to them.Indonesia gonna be top 5 largest economy in the world in 2050.
They cannot afford to lose their market.

Eventually they will sign FTA with indonesia and malaysia and their certified palm oil will be free to trade again.

Must be forward looking.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-begins-buying-back-oil-strategic-reserve-official-2022-12-16/

Oil price final support reached also mean Palm oil support reach.

Now Mistry start to believe 4 to 5k for palm oil instead of 2500 like the naysayers.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1085393/mistry-predicts-a-jump-in-palm-oil-on-indonesian-biofuel-mandate
Mistry predicts a jump in palm oil on Indonesian biofuel mandate.
The most-consumed cooking oil may trade between RM3,500 and RM5,000 a ton between now and the end of May, unless the war in Ukraine ends, said Mistry, who has been trading palm for about four decades.

2023 1.88 can or not?
If 2022 close well. Then tsh is obeying mthly upward channel and will definetly test rm2.00.
The worry is can anyone hold til then ?
Best wish is all jump ship before 1.20 now.
So can make an easy job for boss.
So naysayers please do your job.

Expect 2023 could be a year of opportunity and turnaround for plantation sector as EU change its stand against Palm oil. The long hanging issue behind palm oil for past decades will be over. Fund will be moving in this underinvested sector for the past decade.

www.dw.com/en/eu-races-to-strengthen-trade-and-diplomatic-ties-with-indonesia/a-63367502

End of bad blood

Things are changing. "Our engagement with Indonesia has probably never been so intensive," a European Commission spokesperson told DW.

A surge of diplomatic visits kicked off in June 2021 when Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief, made Jakarta the first port of call in his maiden Southeast Asian visit. He returned for a second visit, to Bali, in July this year.

Because of its role as G20 president for 2022, Indonesia has also received an unprecedented number of high-profile EU visits, including from Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU trade commissioner, who last month said from Jakarta that he expects both sides to agree terms on a free-trade deal by 2024.

EU-Indonesia relations have soured over a handful of trade disputes, most of which have gone to the World Trade Organization (WTO) for review. Yet tensions are expected to ease once the WTO makes its recommendations by the end of the year.

Widodo said in early September that he expects his country to lose in its trade dispute against the EU over Indonesia's 2020 ban on exports of nickel ore. The WTO formed a panel overseeing this dispute in April last year. A final report is expected in the last quarter of 2022.

The WTO is also expected to announce its decision by the end of the year over Indonesia's case against the EU's decision to phase out imports of palm oil imports by 2030. Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of palm oil, which Brussels has designated as a non-renewable fuel.

Once these disputes are settled, analysts reckon that discussions between EU and Indonesian officials can turn to issues where both sides see eye to eye, such as on the long-awaited free-trade deal. With Indonesia taking over as ASEAN chair next year, there is even more impetus on Brussels to cooperate if it wants to continue building good ties in the region.

Basically, you wont see indonesia stockpile running high again. If china demand pick up strongly after reopening ,stockpile may drop to tight situation again. B40 will be implemented after they fine tune the formulation and increases production to avoid serious shortage in future.

To put the policy change into perspective, the increase in the blending mandate is expected to increase domestic Indonesian biodiesel demand 18% from 11 million KL to 13 million KL, which translates into around 1.8mmt of extra palm oil (CPO) consumption in 2023. (assuming that the 13,000,000KL target is met).

Increased domestic Indonesian palm oil demand will reduce the volume available for export from one of the worlds largest palm oil producers, and plans to increase the blending mandate further, to 40% indicate further increases in demand. This policy has provided support to the palm oil price in 2023, and will help it weather the storm of regulatory headwinds coming out of the EU. This is likely to generate sustained upward pressure on the price of other oilseeds such as canola into the future.

Expecting a FTA to be signed between Indonesia and EU in future. Palm oil will be allowed to be exported again to EU.

https://www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2022/07/22/out-of-sudden-eu-asean-plan-leaders-summit-in-december.html
The palm oil diplomacy will give Indonesia, as well as Malaysia, a chance to raise its bargaining power in any negotiation on trade restrictions with a weakening EU. The same rule also applies to Indonesian coal.

The EU has agreed to accelerate a free trade agreement (FTA) with ASEAN, a significant change from its traditional preference of having an FTA with individual ASEAN member states. With Indonesia, for example, the EU has yet to complete FTA negotiations, especially in resolving disputes over palm oil.


https://www.thejakartapost.com/paper/2022/12/16/jokowi-sticks-up-for-palm-oil-nickel-policy-at-eu-asean-summit.html

President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has taken a more outspoken stance against the European Union’s efforts to impose its own sustainability standards on trade with ASEAN, insisting at a summit on Wednesday that it would have to treat the bloc as an equal if it wanted to build a better partnership.

His remarks, delivered at a special EU-ASEAN Summit to celebrate 45 years of their dialogue partnership, comes amid disagreements over EU environmental and trade policies, as well as efforts to conclude a trade deal that has languished for 15 years.

Southeast Asia, Jokowi said, had become a world economic powerhouse and so a partnership with ASEAN would benefit the EU. But going forward, he asserted, Europe would have to let ASEAN nations to do what was necessary to develop their own economies.

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2022/12/16/end-of-eus-dictation-jakarta-post

Its Official

JAKARTA : Indonesia is set to raise mandatory biodiesel blending to 35per cent starting January 1, 2023, to reduce fuel imports amid high global energy prices and to shift to cleaner energy, the energy ministry said on Friday.

The world's biggest palm oil producer has since 2020 implemented the B30 programme, which mandates fossil gasoil to be blended with 30per cent palm oil-based fuel, and has been planning to increase the use of palm-based fuel.

"The estimated demand for biodiesel to support B35 implementation is 13.15 million kilolitres, or around a 19per cent increase compared to 2022 allocation of 11.03 million kilolitres," energy ministry spokesperson Agung Pribadi said in a statement on Friday.

Indonesia is estimated to consume 37.58 million kilolitres of diesel next year, of which 35per cent will be supplied by palm-based biodiesel.

The country's biodiesel industry has an installed capacity of 16.65 million kilolitres, the energy ministry said.

The energy ministry also set a new specification to improve the standards for biodiesel to assure consumers that higher biodiesel blending would not affect engine performance.

The government has been running road tests for biodiesel that is 40per cent palm oil since July 2022 and is expected to conclude the trial by end of this year.

Tsh and inno both run by same boss.

Inno zero debt .PB is 2.4 x. Price at 1.54
Tsh zero debt soon.PB is 0.69. Price at 1.04.

Eventually boss target could be
TSH zero debt
PB 2.4
Price at 3.60

Drama at dnex is a sign of downtrend in malaysia tech industry.
Dnex is going to be a showcase to international investor that malaysia tech is next golden goose that unseen hand is killing.
Be cautious decades of uptrend in tech means alot of selling off on every rebound.Bankers simply got too much chip accumulated over past decade to dispose so they will fake bull trap to dispose.

Indonesia has mandated that aviation fuel must be blended at a rate of 5% (B5) by 2025.

We are looking at the day where waste and used cooking oil price is higher than cpo in future. And will give a strong support to cpo price.
Thats the power of greenflation.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2400935-viewpoint-asian-biofuels-breaking-away-from-europe

Wonder how are they gonna find all the feedstock as it is limited and sold out.
Probably learn from the chinese mixing non food grade palm oil with used cooking oil.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1083809/petronas-eni-euglena-explore-biorefinery-feasibility-in-pengerang

Guarantee they cannot find enough feeedstock in future.
All efb and waste from plantation company are sold out.
Suggest they look into producing industrial vegetable oil IVO from ffb like indonesia for stable supply and growing market.

Looking at big q in klk. Big fund is going in plantation.

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2022/12/14/no-electricity-tariff-hike-for-households-smes-says-anwar

He added that the increase in tariffs would not affect the small and medium enterprises and companies involved in agricultural and food production.

He said that Energy and Natural Resources Minister Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad would be announcing the details of the tariff rates for affected sectors.

So new PM looks after plantation sector and farmers?

Thats why resource is king in a Greenflation era.

Any green  regulation is inflationary and will be pushing resources price up.
Thats why is call Greenflation.

Only high resource price will result in less pollution.
Cheap resource price will induce more consumption more wastage and more pollution.

If you want save the earth all resource price should double and will greatly reduce pollution.

What is the impact on eu palm oil regulation?

1. It will affect small holder more. All bursa listed plantation company are non deforest compliance.

2. If eu reduce palm oil import .It need to make up the consumption with local deforest friendly oil like sunflower rapeseed oil. This will create shortages outside eu and higher alternative oil price will happen.
Palm oil will flow to these region to fill up the void.
In other words, palm oil consumption will not reduced or slightly affected but vegetable oil price is even higher than before implementation.
Sounds familiar .That is exactly what happen to oil now.

3. Sustainable palm oil will command premium market and will squeeze out new player due to high cost and regulation . Beneficial to malaysia palm oil .

Most lkely the market will not let the dividend holder buy back cheap.
Usually will be push back before they got their dividend.

The boss is smiling everyday and say thanks to all bankers and naysayers for pushing down the price for him to collect. He is happy everytime the price goes up or down.

Many company report very good profit .Some even qtrly improved profit like some tech company.
But their cash flow are not positve. Some are living on borrowed money but report excellent profit. Stock price sky high with over 20 pe.

TSH got good profit. Positive Cash flow over 100million every qtr even without land disposal.
Now no more debt. Every qtr over 100million cash flow in pocket.
The boss every day see so much money come so he is very happy buy in .
Everyday few million cash come in. He spend 500k buy in why not.

Gap is closed. Uptrend continue . Higher high above 1.20.

If b40 is implemented very likely there will be serious shortage of palm oil when china fully reopen in 2023 coupled with flooding and low peak season. Thats why for now b35 is implemented until feedstock supply is further increase in future.

Biodiesel B35 Will Run Next Year, How come it won't become B40 Pak Jokowi?
 

08 December 2022 15:40


Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Indonesian President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) asked that the mandatory implementation of the 35% biodiesel blend or B35 program be implemented from January 2023.

Later, B35 will be used as a mixture for diesel fuel, with a ratio of 65% diesel and 35% biodiesel.

The application of B35 is down compared to the original plan which would apply a 40% biodiesel blend (B40). In fact, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has already conducted road tests for B40 from July to November 2022.

So, why suddenly B35 will be implemented next year instead of B40?

The Director General (Dirjen) of New, Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation (EBTKE) of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Dadan Kusdiana, also explained the reasons for the decision to implement B35 instead of B40 as originally planned.

Dadan acknowledged that the government had conducted trials on B40 and showed positive results, both from laboratory tests and road tests. However, he said that the determination of the B35 policy had gone through careful consideration.

"We did test B40, and the results were positive, both in the lab test and the road test," he told CNBC Indonesia, Thursday (8/12/2022).

Dadan revealed that the considerations that had been reviewed by the government so that it finally decided to implement B35 included readiness to supply raw materials, infrastructure readiness, and anticipation of B35 incentives.

"The policy for determining B35 certainly considers matters such as supply readiness , infrastructure readiness and also anticipation of the amount of biodiesel incentives," he explained.

Dadan also said that the government was ready to implement B35 at the beginning of next year. This is evidenced by the results of trials that there are no significant obstacles.

"Ten of the 12 vehicles used in the road test have completed the road test with the result that there were no significant problems. The biodiesel specifications for B35 will then be determined," he explained.

Therefore, his party is optimistic that the implementation of B35 in Indonesia can start in January 2023. This is also a form of government anticipation of rising world oil prices and also to reduce diesel imports.

"Hopefully the B35 program can be implemented from January 2023," he said.

With the implementation of B35, according to him the allocation of biodiesel in 2023 will increase to 13 million kilo liters (kl), from the 2022 allocation of 11.02 million cl.

Dadan said this was based on calculations and considerations for domestic diesel fuel consumption growth.

"Based on calculations taking into account fuel consumption growth, the allocation of biodiesel for the 2023 B35 program is estimated to be around 13 million KL," he said.

Previously, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources had conducted a B40 road test by the Lemigas Oil and Gas Testing Center involving the KEBTKE Survey and Testing Center and the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) through funding from the Oil Palm Plantation Fund Management Agency (BPDPKS). ) submitted by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Directorate General of EBTKE.

The fuel formulation used in the B40 road test was B30D10 with a mixed formula of 30% Biodiesel or B100 and 10% Biodiesel. The type tested was B40 with a mixed formula of 40% Biodiesel plus 60% Solar (B0).

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bursa-malaysia-launches-first-shariahcompliant-carbon-exchange

Carbon credits can be generated from nature-based solutions, such as reforestation and afforestation projects. It can also be generated from technology-based solutions like methane capture for waste management and biogas. 

Tsh got plenty carbon credit project. Some notable ones:

https://www.tsh.com.my/sustainability/forest-management/

Sustainable Forestry

The forest ecosystem which surrounds our facilities is important to TSH and we continuously work with state agencies & non-government organisations to ensure that we minimize harm to the environment and also treat degraded areas. We have implemented enrichment planting and silviculture treatment initiatives under Sabah’s Forest Management Unit (FMU) Programme. Our land development practices also meet strict environmental conditions to avoid harming biodiversity.


https://www.tsh.com.my/sustainability/environment/

Green Energy and Waste Management

TSH plantation operations produce a significant amount of biomass by-products. Palm biomass such as pruned fronds, old palm trunks and treated palm oil mill effluent (POME) are recycled back to the soil as natural fertilizers.

Other forms of biomass such as fibre, shells and empty fruit bunches (EFB) are used as renewable energy sources to generate steam and electricity for mill processing. This green energy is able to sustain 98% of our mills’ energy needs.

Methane emission from the treatment of POME is a large contributor to the total operational emissions. All TSH Mill at Sabah has successfully commissioned biogas plants to capture methane gas and mitigate GHG emissions from POME.

In addition, TSH has a 12-megawatt (MWhr) biomass co-gen power plant & 3-megawatt (MWhr) Biogas engine at its Bio-Complex Plant at Tawau, Sabah that uses mesocarp fibre, palm kernel shells, EFB & methane gas from POME from its own Palm Oil Mill to satisfy almost all the steam and electricity requirements of the complex. The generated energy is connected to Sabah grid system (SESB), which is under SEDA FIT program.

Is Tsh eligible? Potentially yes ,their nature project is approved under kyoto protocol.
They need to convert to verra registry.

Projects registered under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which is a UN carbon offset scheme under the Kyoto Protocol in 2006, can supply standardised carbon contracts for the BCX as well. But the project developers have to convert their issued certified emissions reductions (credits generated from a CDM project) to verified carbon units in Verra’s registry, and the vintage has to be from 2016 onwards.

www.astroawani.com/berita-malaysia/industri-solar-biodiesel-perlu-diperkasakan-semula-prof-jomo-395489

Focus on forgotten industries, economist tells govt

Jomo, dalam bidang biodiesel yang bersumber daripada minyak kelapa sawit, di mana perkara ini menurutnya sudah dibincangkan sejak dekad 80-an lagi.

Bagaimanapun, katanya, kelihatan hampir tidak ada usaha serius untuk memajukan dan mengembangkannya, sedangkan Malaysia adalah antara pengeluar terbesar produk berasaskan kelapa sawit di dunia.

Tegas beliau, pemerkasaan industri-industri berpotensi besar sedia ada ini merupakan langkah yang perlu diambil sebagai antara solusi untuk menggandakan pendapatan negara dalam usaha memulihkan ekonomi rakyat.

PETALING JAYA: The government should focus on reviving industries that have been forgotten for more than a quarter of the century, such as the photovoltaic solar panel and biodiesel industries in a bid to revive the economy, says an economist.

Touching on the palm oil-based biodiesel industry, Jomo said that it had been talked about since the 1980s but there has yet to be any “serious progress” in its development.

“And it is needed at the international level,” added Jomo, in reference to the huge demand for biodiesel fuel globally.

Biodiesel fuel’s importance as an alternative to fossil fuel has gained prominence due to worsening climate change.


 

Sifu said

Nusantara theme in bursa and tsh will come eventually in the future.
When we dunno yet.
But probably that will be seen as one of the strong catalyst to form a half yearly and yearly GC on macd of tsh.Of course that will be sometime ahead.
But it would be exciting to see a golden cross(above 0 axis)  on  a half yearly and yearly chart of tsh.Very powerful chart .
Last time tsh had such setup was in 2004.
Price rally from 23 sen to 2.30 10x from 2004 to 2014.10 yrs 10 x.

Sifu said

Tech got big risk ahead he warn many time.
Tsmc is moving to us.it means taiwan protection is gone.
Why china let tsmc leave taiwan because they do not want it to become their weakness in reunification.
Once tsmc gone from taiwan to usa is the day china will take back taiwan.
And us sanction will follow.
China will be increase speed of stockpiling resources from now on.
Two prong strategy from russia n china vs usa.

Sifu said

Everyone dun like to buy plantation.you can see from every platform.No one want or talking or cant be bothered.
Thats why is not crowded.
Evry platform only talk about tech. Still got long way to drop.
They jus cant kick the habit of buying tech for the past 10 yrs.

Sifu said

If soybean oil goes usd1.00 in future.What price will cpo be then?
Still think cpo price will be back to 2 to 3k? Once its in 4k range imeans  structural shift had happened. 4k to 8k is the playground now. Easy average 10 to 15% dividend yield for palm oil stock from 2023 on until big fund start buy up until it drop to 5% ie stock price need double at least.

https://www.agweb.com/markets/grain-markets/how-will-surge-bio-based-fuels-impact-grain-demand

“You’ll probably run out of feedstocks by 2025 for Renewable diesel — that’s a problem,” says Pete Meyer, head of grain and oilseed analytics, S&P Global Platts.

By then 70% of the feedstock will have to come from vegetable oil — from soybeans, canola or even camelina.

“As this market develops, I’m guessing many will wish those were reversed,” Basse says. “Meal could become a byproduct that really drags down the price of soybeans. While at the same point, soybean oil could go to crazy levels like 90 cents or $1.”

While the impact of bio-based fuels could be similar in impact to ethanol, the comparison stops there, Flory says. 

“Additional demand for vegetable oil is kind of off the charts,” he says. “It’s not like 2005-06 with ethanol — that market was developing on a mandate. Renewable diesel and SAF are developing on actual demand.”

How will these impacts be felt at the farmgate?

“Better bean prices and better basis prices for those near crush plants,” Nicholson says.

Flory agrees: “Soybeans from the 2023 crop will be in much higher demand to feed new capacity and the 2024 soybean crop will be expected to supply roughly 400 million bushels of crush capacity. All this means one thing – soybeans will be bidding more aggressive for acres in the U.S. in the next three years to feed crush expansion. Longer-term, demand for even more fuel feed stock will keep soybeans bidding for acres. This could be the rising tide that will lift all boats.”

Sifu said

Even big oil company are embracing renewable diesel.

https://www.world-grain.com/articles/17531-renewable-diesel-to-drive-us-biofuels-industry

DENVER, COLORADO, US — The US biofuels industry is expected to see a period of growth and transition due to a recent surge in renewable diesel, according to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange.

“The outlook for biofuels is favorable as the US and other leading developed countries embrace renewable liquid transportation fuels as a solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” said Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg, lead grain and farm supply economist for CoBank. “Renewable diesel offers the most intriguing opportunity in the biofuels space, given the extraordinary growth potential.”

As major oil companies have begun embracing renewable diesel, US production is expected to increase exponentially. Several industry stakeholders have announced plans for new soybean crush and refinery facilities over the last two years. Soybean oil is the feedstock most commonly used for producing renewable diesel. Combined, the proposed crush and refinery projects would increase US renewable diesel production capacity six-fold by 2030 to 6.5 billion gallons annually.

However, the expected growth in soybean oil-based renewable diesel requires considerably more soybean bushels for domestic crush. CoBank estimates that US soybean acreage would need to increase by 17.9 million acres to fill the supply gap created by the additional crush and refinery projects that have been announced. Additionally, the United States would need to stop exporting whole soybeans.

Alternatives to a massive shift of acres from corn to soybeans would include growing other oilseeds like canola and sunflower on a larger scale, importing other vegetable oils, or using other feedstocks such as beef tallow to produce renewable diesel fuel.

Biofuel production has grown nearly 8% every year over the past 15 years, driven by tax credits and targeted government programs, including the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Program and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 will increase usage of renewable energy in general, and biofuels in particular.

Sifu said

Just pray palm oil dont go too high instead of worrying it will come down .

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/business-inputs/article/2021/12/16/renewable-diesel-plans-outstrip-soy

Marrying Soybeans and Renewable Diesel

Renewable Diesel Plans Could Outstrip Soybean Acres, Soy Oil Supplies


OMAHA (DTN) -- Analysts are having a hard time modeling out the soybean oil needs in the near term and long term as more renewable diesel projects are announced. For now, forecasts call for higher soybean prices, expanded acreage, and not enough soybean oil to go around.

If everything is built out as projected, farmers would have to add tens of millions of acres of soybeans and yield increases to keep up with the crush demand. To hit the numbers, soybean production would have to grow by roughly 3.6 billion bushels by 2030.

USDA's Economic Research Service this week projected soybean oil will see greater demand starting in 2022, while Rabobank offered a similar outlook projecting greater crush capacity starting in 2023 as more renewable diesel facilities come online.

In an analysis this week, Rabobank projects renewable diesel production to hit more than 6.1 billion gallons by 2030. That would push vegetable oil demand to about 47 billion pounds (21.4 million metric tons). To put that into perspective, Rabobank notes the U.S. right now produces about 24 billion to 25 billion pounds (11 mmt to 11.3 mmt). That basically requires soybean and other vegetable oil production to double to meet the demand driven by renewable diesel.

If all the renewable diesel capacity gets built out, within three to four years, there could be either a risk of deficit in vegetable oils or millions of new acres needed in soybeans, as well as other crops such as canola.

"If you look at it all going to soybeans, you would need upwards of 55 million to 60 million more acres of soybeans," Nicholson said. "We just don't have that in the United States." Nicholson added, "Soybeans would basically wipe out corn and wheat acres in the U.S. just to produce enough oil for this. But we don't have the crushing capacity to do it."



This expansion of renewable diesel also doesn't quite factor in where sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) will come into play. The airline industry is clamoring to lower its emissions as well. The Build Back Better bill has a tax credit of up to $1.25 a gallon and $300 million for research, along with other potential funds for SAF infrastructure. Ethanol, however, also will get a chance to operate in this space with some further refining to change the molecular structure.

ADM also recently partnered with GEVO Inc. to focus on SAF and other low-carbon hydrocarbon fuels. ADM estimates 900 million gallons of ethanol from plants in Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska could be converted into 500 million gallons of SAF fuels.

Both renewable diesel and ethanol moving aggressively into aviation fuels will also require the federal government to consider different options for modeling out carbon scores through language in the legislation.

"When you look at sustainable aviation fuel, that's an industry that's kind of in its infancy, and I don't mean that in a bad way, but it's just kind of the nature of the beast," Nicholson said.



 

Now moody start talk good on plantation stock

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1074473/moody-s-stronger-earnings-for-sime-darby-plantation-ioi-corp-in-next-12-to-18-months

Sifu sw8d

If the chart goes as he predicts .
Based on fa and ta.He expect a material annoucement in 2023/24 to push the chart to break ath

Sifu said

The surprise dividend mean only 1 thing.
The boss want close the wkly mthly qtrly and half yearly and yearly chart in bullish indicator.
You can go find out the chart.

Sifu said


Only 2 states in us already consume so much soybean oil.
Just go imagine all other states following.

If the soybean oil is not coming down.
Cpo will have to go up to close the big price gap with soybean oil.

https://www.startribune.com/chs-sees-bullish-demand-in-soybean-oil-citing-renewable-diesel/600224131/

Historically, most of that oil has been processed for human consumption, such as in salad dressings or cooking oils. But CHS leadership says the facility will also aim to fill in a “demand pull”from a West Coast increasingly seeking cleaner-burning diesel fuels, some made from soybean oil.

Talk of additional markets adding low carbon fuel standards — such as New York — has agriculture executives eyeing unprecedented opportunity.

“The demand pull, just for California, has created this exuberance,” said John Griffith, CHS’ ag business vice president, in an interview late last month. “You could consume all of the soybeans that we export to the world, just in those two markets (California and New York).”

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, only five plants nationwide produce renewable diesel, churning out 590 million gallons in 2020. But six more plants are under construction, according to DOE’s Alternative Fuels Data Center. Capacity is expected to grow by 2 billion gallons.

Renewable diesel can be made from more than oilseed. For instance, Minnetonka-based agriculture giant Cargill will convert beef tallow into oil at a planned Nebraska facility. But soybean purveyors see an advantage in extracting oilseed from a crop grown plentifully across the Midwest.

In North Dakota, Marathon Petroleum has teamed up with Chicago-based commodities trader Archer-Daniels-Midland to open a facility that is expected to produce over half a billion pounds of soybean oil as feedstock for renewable diesel.

Like corn, soybean is a crop that keeps on giving. While 80% of the bean is crushed and made into meal, which is mostly fed to livestock, another 20% goes into extracted oil.

“The question 20 years ago was, ‘What are we going to do with all the soybean oil?’ ” Smentek said. “Now, we ask, ‘What are we going to do with all this soybean meal?’ ”

Renewable diesel — different than biodiesel, which must be mixed with gasoline to power vehicles — is chemically identical to petroleum-based diesel. In other words, it can replace traditional diesel in a heavy-duty vehicle’s engine. Since renewable diesel burns cleaner — or with fewer emissions — than traditional diesel, it’s also highly valued for its low carbon footprint, especially in progressive states.

For the moment, nearly all of the renewable diesel is consumed in California. After approval from their legislatures, Oregon and Washington are also implementing similar low-carbon standards. Other states, including New York, are drafting proposals.

It’s this demand that CHS says it’s chasing. The cooperative finished a $105 million expansion last year at a soybean crush facility in Fairmont, Minn., just north of the Iowa border. Plant workers say they see as many as 500 trucks a day, many bringing crushed soybeans back up to Mankato for refining.

FIrst interim 8 sen
Final dividend will be how much?
SIfu said Cpo in reverse head and shoulder.
Get ready for 5k by end of year.
This qter will be the lowest cpo price at 3200 and already price in.
Look forward to better core profit going forward.
In the next 1 or 2 qtr another 200 to 300 m profit is expected.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-outlook-125-barrel-2023-china-ends-covid-lockdowns-2022-11

Oil prices could be headed significantly higher in 2023, especially if China shifts away from its COVID-19 lockdown policies and towards a full reopening, according to Goldman Sachs. 

In a Monday note, the bank highlighted that its 2023 forecast for Brent crude oil to trade at $110 per barrel has plenty of upside risk to $125 per barrel due to a consistent decline in inventories and spare capacity. On top of that, there is a risk "of meaningful supply disruptions" in Libya, Russia, Iraq, and Iran, which could send oil prices higher.

"The risk distributions around our current oil forecasts are skewed squarely higher given spot demand continues to realize robustly," Goldman Sachs' Callum Bruce wrote.

Brent crude oil currently trades just below $100 per barrel, and it topped out at nearly $140 per barrel shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine. 

There are still plenty of concerns about demand for oil as China continues with its COVID-19 related lockdown policies. Those policies, if they continue, represent the "final significant fundamental downside risk" for oil prices, according to the note.

But recent headlines have hinted that China may be leaning away from their lockdown policies.

"Our China economists believe recent headlines simply mark the start of a multi-month preparation period for reopening, and so have maintained their current base case of 2Q23 reopening, once the winter flu season has passed," Bruce said.

Any further news that China is moving towards a reopening would likely drive upside in oil prices. An early reopening would add $6 to Goldman's $110 per barrel price target, and a full international reopening would add $15 to Goldman's price target to get it to $125 per barrel. 

Such a move in Brent crude oil prices would represent potential upside of 29% from current levels.

Finally, a weakening of the US dollar, which is likely if China fully reopens its economy, could boost oil prices as its year-to-date strength has served as a headwind for commodity prices.

Sifu said cpi will drop and dxy will crash below 108.
Sifu is correct again.

Sifu said china is reopening gradually .
China trim quarantine time by 2 days.

Sifu is correct again.

Sifu shared a wise quote

Bill Gates bought farms long ago, and Buffett bought Occidental Oil later. I wouldn't be surprised if Musk buys Glencore in the future. Americans are still more pragmatic. It is clear from the trend of the Dow and Nasdaq in the US stock market. The traditional economy is booming, the new economy has fallen, and energy and minerals have been trending. Of course, it is also possible that the U.S. capital market is immature, does not understand value investing, and stirs up speculation in traditional industries.

Those industry leaders who are driving world change are buying assets that cannot be changed by the world.
Speculators whose lives cannot be improved are keen to dig out companies that change the world.

Sifu said

Tsh usually give annual dividend at qtr 4.
Base on a bumper profit year, a highest dividend in record will be announced.
25% on total annual profit. If last year is 3 sen this year hopefully is 10 sen.
Expecting a slowly rising trend in Tsh because of that in 3.5 mths time.