We are looking at the day where waste and used cooking oil price is higher than cpo in future. And will give a strong support to cpo price.
Thats the power of greenflation.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2400935-viewpoint-asian-biofuels-breaking-away-from-europe

Wonder how are they gonna find all the feedstock as it is limited and sold out.
Probably learn from the chinese mixing non food grade palm oil with used cooking oil.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1083809/petronas-eni-euglena-explore-biorefinery-feasibility-in-pengerang

Guarantee they cannot find enough feeedstock in future.
All efb and waste from plantation company are sold out.
Suggest they look into producing industrial vegetable oil IVO from ffb like indonesia for stable supply and growing market.

Looking at big q in klk. Big fund is going in plantation.

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2022/12/14/no-electricity-tariff-hike-for-households-smes-says-anwar

He added that the increase in tariffs would not affect the small and medium enterprises and companies involved in agricultural and food production.

He said that Energy and Natural Resources Minister Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad would be announcing the details of the tariff rates for affected sectors.

So new PM looks after plantation sector and farmers?

Thats why resource is king in a Greenflation era.

Any green  regulation is inflationary and will be pushing resources price up.
Thats why is call Greenflation.

Only high resource price will result in less pollution.
Cheap resource price will induce more consumption more wastage and more pollution.

If you want save the earth all resource price should double and will greatly reduce pollution.

What is the impact on eu palm oil regulation?

1. It will affect small holder more. All bursa listed plantation company are non deforest compliance.

2. If eu reduce palm oil import .It need to make up the consumption with local deforest friendly oil like sunflower rapeseed oil. This will create shortages outside eu and higher alternative oil price will happen.
Palm oil will flow to these region to fill up the void.
In other words, palm oil consumption will not reduced or slightly affected but vegetable oil price is even higher than before implementation.
Sounds familiar .That is exactly what happen to oil now.

3. Sustainable palm oil will command premium market and will squeeze out new player due to high cost and regulation . Beneficial to malaysia palm oil .

Most lkely the market will not let the dividend holder buy back cheap.
Usually will be push back before they got their dividend.

The boss is smiling everyday and say thanks to all bankers and naysayers for pushing down the price for him to collect. He is happy everytime the price goes up or down.

Many company report very good profit .Some even qtrly improved profit like some tech company.
But their cash flow are not positve. Some are living on borrowed money but report excellent profit. Stock price sky high with over 20 pe.

TSH got good profit. Positive Cash flow over 100million every qtr even without land disposal.
Now no more debt. Every qtr over 100million cash flow in pocket.
The boss every day see so much money come so he is very happy buy in .
Everyday few million cash come in. He spend 500k buy in why not.

Gap is closed. Uptrend continue . Higher high above 1.20.

If b40 is implemented very likely there will be serious shortage of palm oil when china fully reopen in 2023 coupled with flooding and low peak season. Thats why for now b35 is implemented until feedstock supply is further increase in future.

Biodiesel B35 Will Run Next Year, How come it won't become B40 Pak Jokowi?
 

08 December 2022 15:40


Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Indonesian President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) asked that the mandatory implementation of the 35% biodiesel blend or B35 program be implemented from January 2023.

Later, B35 will be used as a mixture for diesel fuel, with a ratio of 65% diesel and 35% biodiesel.

The application of B35 is down compared to the original plan which would apply a 40% biodiesel blend (B40). In fact, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has already conducted road tests for B40 from July to November 2022.

So, why suddenly B35 will be implemented next year instead of B40?

The Director General (Dirjen) of New, Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation (EBTKE) of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Dadan Kusdiana, also explained the reasons for the decision to implement B35 instead of B40 as originally planned.

Dadan acknowledged that the government had conducted trials on B40 and showed positive results, both from laboratory tests and road tests. However, he said that the determination of the B35 policy had gone through careful consideration.

"We did test B40, and the results were positive, both in the lab test and the road test," he told CNBC Indonesia, Thursday (8/12/2022).

Dadan revealed that the considerations that had been reviewed by the government so that it finally decided to implement B35 included readiness to supply raw materials, infrastructure readiness, and anticipation of B35 incentives.

"The policy for determining B35 certainly considers matters such as supply readiness , infrastructure readiness and also anticipation of the amount of biodiesel incentives," he explained.

Dadan also said that the government was ready to implement B35 at the beginning of next year. This is evidenced by the results of trials that there are no significant obstacles.

"Ten of the 12 vehicles used in the road test have completed the road test with the result that there were no significant problems. The biodiesel specifications for B35 will then be determined," he explained.

Therefore, his party is optimistic that the implementation of B35 in Indonesia can start in January 2023. This is also a form of government anticipation of rising world oil prices and also to reduce diesel imports.

"Hopefully the B35 program can be implemented from January 2023," he said.

With the implementation of B35, according to him the allocation of biodiesel in 2023 will increase to 13 million kilo liters (kl), from the 2022 allocation of 11.02 million cl.

Dadan said this was based on calculations and considerations for domestic diesel fuel consumption growth.

"Based on calculations taking into account fuel consumption growth, the allocation of biodiesel for the 2023 B35 program is estimated to be around 13 million KL," he said.

Previously, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources had conducted a B40 road test by the Lemigas Oil and Gas Testing Center involving the KEBTKE Survey and Testing Center and the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) through funding from the Oil Palm Plantation Fund Management Agency (BPDPKS). ) submitted by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Directorate General of EBTKE.

The fuel formulation used in the B40 road test was B30D10 with a mixed formula of 30% Biodiesel or B100 and 10% Biodiesel. The type tested was B40 with a mixed formula of 40% Biodiesel plus 60% Solar (B0).

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bursa-malaysia-launches-first-shariahcompliant-carbon-exchange

Carbon credits can be generated from nature-based solutions, such as reforestation and afforestation projects. It can also be generated from technology-based solutions like methane capture for waste management and biogas. 

Tsh got plenty carbon credit project. Some notable ones:

https://www.tsh.com.my/sustainability/forest-management/

Sustainable Forestry

The forest ecosystem which surrounds our facilities is important to TSH and we continuously work with state agencies & non-government organisations to ensure that we minimize harm to the environment and also treat degraded areas. We have implemented enrichment planting and silviculture treatment initiatives under Sabah’s Forest Management Unit (FMU) Programme. Our land development practices also meet strict environmental conditions to avoid harming biodiversity.


https://www.tsh.com.my/sustainability/environment/

Green Energy and Waste Management

TSH plantation operations produce a significant amount of biomass by-products. Palm biomass such as pruned fronds, old palm trunks and treated palm oil mill effluent (POME) are recycled back to the soil as natural fertilizers.

Other forms of biomass such as fibre, shells and empty fruit bunches (EFB) are used as renewable energy sources to generate steam and electricity for mill processing. This green energy is able to sustain 98% of our mills’ energy needs.

Methane emission from the treatment of POME is a large contributor to the total operational emissions. All TSH Mill at Sabah has successfully commissioned biogas plants to capture methane gas and mitigate GHG emissions from POME.

In addition, TSH has a 12-megawatt (MWhr) biomass co-gen power plant & 3-megawatt (MWhr) Biogas engine at its Bio-Complex Plant at Tawau, Sabah that uses mesocarp fibre, palm kernel shells, EFB & methane gas from POME from its own Palm Oil Mill to satisfy almost all the steam and electricity requirements of the complex. The generated energy is connected to Sabah grid system (SESB), which is under SEDA FIT program.

Is Tsh eligible? Potentially yes ,their nature project is approved under kyoto protocol.
They need to convert to verra registry.

Projects registered under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which is a UN carbon offset scheme under the Kyoto Protocol in 2006, can supply standardised carbon contracts for the BCX as well. But the project developers have to convert their issued certified emissions reductions (credits generated from a CDM project) to verified carbon units in Verra’s registry, and the vintage has to be from 2016 onwards.

www.astroawani.com/berita-malaysia/industri-solar-biodiesel-perlu-diperkasakan-semula-prof-jomo-395489

Focus on forgotten industries, economist tells govt

Jomo, dalam bidang biodiesel yang bersumber daripada minyak kelapa sawit, di mana perkara ini menurutnya sudah dibincangkan sejak dekad 80-an lagi.

Bagaimanapun, katanya, kelihatan hampir tidak ada usaha serius untuk memajukan dan mengembangkannya, sedangkan Malaysia adalah antara pengeluar terbesar produk berasaskan kelapa sawit di dunia.

Tegas beliau, pemerkasaan industri-industri berpotensi besar sedia ada ini merupakan langkah yang perlu diambil sebagai antara solusi untuk menggandakan pendapatan negara dalam usaha memulihkan ekonomi rakyat.

PETALING JAYA: The government should focus on reviving industries that have been forgotten for more than a quarter of the century, such as the photovoltaic solar panel and biodiesel industries in a bid to revive the economy, says an economist.

Touching on the palm oil-based biodiesel industry, Jomo said that it had been talked about since the 1980s but there has yet to be any “serious progress” in its development.

“And it is needed at the international level,” added Jomo, in reference to the huge demand for biodiesel fuel globally.

Biodiesel fuel’s importance as an alternative to fossil fuel has gained prominence due to worsening climate change.


 

Sifu said

Nusantara theme in bursa and tsh will come eventually in the future.
When we dunno yet.
But probably that will be seen as one of the strong catalyst to form a half yearly and yearly GC on macd of tsh.Of course that will be sometime ahead.
But it would be exciting to see a golden cross(above 0 axis)  on  a half yearly and yearly chart of tsh.Very powerful chart .
Last time tsh had such setup was in 2004.
Price rally from 23 sen to 2.30 10x from 2004 to 2014.10 yrs 10 x.

Sifu said

Tech got big risk ahead he warn many time.
Tsmc is moving to us.it means taiwan protection is gone.
Why china let tsmc leave taiwan because they do not want it to become their weakness in reunification.
Once tsmc gone from taiwan to usa is the day china will take back taiwan.
And us sanction will follow.
China will be increase speed of stockpiling resources from now on.
Two prong strategy from russia n china vs usa.

Sifu said

Everyone dun like to buy plantation.you can see from every platform.No one want or talking or cant be bothered.
Thats why is not crowded.
Evry platform only talk about tech. Still got long way to drop.
They jus cant kick the habit of buying tech for the past 10 yrs.

Sifu said

If soybean oil goes usd1.00 in future.What price will cpo be then?
Still think cpo price will be back to 2 to 3k? Once its in 4k range imeans  structural shift had happened. 4k to 8k is the playground now. Easy average 10 to 15% dividend yield for palm oil stock from 2023 on until big fund start buy up until it drop to 5% ie stock price need double at least.

https://www.agweb.com/markets/grain-markets/how-will-surge-bio-based-fuels-impact-grain-demand

“You’ll probably run out of feedstocks by 2025 for Renewable diesel — that’s a problem,” says Pete Meyer, head of grain and oilseed analytics, S&P Global Platts.

By then 70% of the feedstock will have to come from vegetable oil — from soybeans, canola or even camelina.

“As this market develops, I’m guessing many will wish those were reversed,” Basse says. “Meal could become a byproduct that really drags down the price of soybeans. While at the same point, soybean oil could go to crazy levels like 90 cents or $1.”

While the impact of bio-based fuels could be similar in impact to ethanol, the comparison stops there, Flory says. 

“Additional demand for vegetable oil is kind of off the charts,” he says. “It’s not like 2005-06 with ethanol — that market was developing on a mandate. Renewable diesel and SAF are developing on actual demand.”

How will these impacts be felt at the farmgate?

“Better bean prices and better basis prices for those near crush plants,” Nicholson says.

Flory agrees: “Soybeans from the 2023 crop will be in much higher demand to feed new capacity and the 2024 soybean crop will be expected to supply roughly 400 million bushels of crush capacity. All this means one thing – soybeans will be bidding more aggressive for acres in the U.S. in the next three years to feed crush expansion. Longer-term, demand for even more fuel feed stock will keep soybeans bidding for acres. This could be the rising tide that will lift all boats.”

Sifu said

Even big oil company are embracing renewable diesel.

https://www.world-grain.com/articles/17531-renewable-diesel-to-drive-us-biofuels-industry

DENVER, COLORADO, US — The US biofuels industry is expected to see a period of growth and transition due to a recent surge in renewable diesel, according to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange.

“The outlook for biofuels is favorable as the US and other leading developed countries embrace renewable liquid transportation fuels as a solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” said Kenneth Scott Zuckerberg, lead grain and farm supply economist for CoBank. “Renewable diesel offers the most intriguing opportunity in the biofuels space, given the extraordinary growth potential.”

As major oil companies have begun embracing renewable diesel, US production is expected to increase exponentially. Several industry stakeholders have announced plans for new soybean crush and refinery facilities over the last two years. Soybean oil is the feedstock most commonly used for producing renewable diesel. Combined, the proposed crush and refinery projects would increase US renewable diesel production capacity six-fold by 2030 to 6.5 billion gallons annually.

However, the expected growth in soybean oil-based renewable diesel requires considerably more soybean bushels for domestic crush. CoBank estimates that US soybean acreage would need to increase by 17.9 million acres to fill the supply gap created by the additional crush and refinery projects that have been announced. Additionally, the United States would need to stop exporting whole soybeans.

Alternatives to a massive shift of acres from corn to soybeans would include growing other oilseeds like canola and sunflower on a larger scale, importing other vegetable oils, or using other feedstocks such as beef tallow to produce renewable diesel fuel.

Biofuel production has grown nearly 8% every year over the past 15 years, driven by tax credits and targeted government programs, including the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Program and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 will increase usage of renewable energy in general, and biofuels in particular.

Sifu said

Just pray palm oil dont go too high instead of worrying it will come down .

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/business-inputs/article/2021/12/16/renewable-diesel-plans-outstrip-soy

Marrying Soybeans and Renewable Diesel

Renewable Diesel Plans Could Outstrip Soybean Acres, Soy Oil Supplies


OMAHA (DTN) -- Analysts are having a hard time modeling out the soybean oil needs in the near term and long term as more renewable diesel projects are announced. For now, forecasts call for higher soybean prices, expanded acreage, and not enough soybean oil to go around.

If everything is built out as projected, farmers would have to add tens of millions of acres of soybeans and yield increases to keep up with the crush demand. To hit the numbers, soybean production would have to grow by roughly 3.6 billion bushels by 2030.

USDA's Economic Research Service this week projected soybean oil will see greater demand starting in 2022, while Rabobank offered a similar outlook projecting greater crush capacity starting in 2023 as more renewable diesel facilities come online.

In an analysis this week, Rabobank projects renewable diesel production to hit more than 6.1 billion gallons by 2030. That would push vegetable oil demand to about 47 billion pounds (21.4 million metric tons). To put that into perspective, Rabobank notes the U.S. right now produces about 24 billion to 25 billion pounds (11 mmt to 11.3 mmt). That basically requires soybean and other vegetable oil production to double to meet the demand driven by renewable diesel.

If all the renewable diesel capacity gets built out, within three to four years, there could be either a risk of deficit in vegetable oils or millions of new acres needed in soybeans, as well as other crops such as canola.

"If you look at it all going to soybeans, you would need upwards of 55 million to 60 million more acres of soybeans," Nicholson said. "We just don't have that in the United States." Nicholson added, "Soybeans would basically wipe out corn and wheat acres in the U.S. just to produce enough oil for this. But we don't have the crushing capacity to do it."



This expansion of renewable diesel also doesn't quite factor in where sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) will come into play. The airline industry is clamoring to lower its emissions as well. The Build Back Better bill has a tax credit of up to $1.25 a gallon and $300 million for research, along with other potential funds for SAF infrastructure. Ethanol, however, also will get a chance to operate in this space with some further refining to change the molecular structure.

ADM also recently partnered with GEVO Inc. to focus on SAF and other low-carbon hydrocarbon fuels. ADM estimates 900 million gallons of ethanol from plants in Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska could be converted into 500 million gallons of SAF fuels.

Both renewable diesel and ethanol moving aggressively into aviation fuels will also require the federal government to consider different options for modeling out carbon scores through language in the legislation.

"When you look at sustainable aviation fuel, that's an industry that's kind of in its infancy, and I don't mean that in a bad way, but it's just kind of the nature of the beast," Nicholson said.



 

Now moody start talk good on plantation stock

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1074473/moody-s-stronger-earnings-for-sime-darby-plantation-ioi-corp-in-next-12-to-18-months

Sifu sw8d

If the chart goes as he predicts .
Based on fa and ta.He expect a material annoucement in 2023/24 to push the chart to break ath

Sifu said

The surprise dividend mean only 1 thing.
The boss want close the wkly mthly qtrly and half yearly and yearly chart in bullish indicator.
You can go find out the chart.

Sifu said


Only 2 states in us already consume so much soybean oil.
Just go imagine all other states following.

If the soybean oil is not coming down.
Cpo will have to go up to close the big price gap with soybean oil.

https://www.startribune.com/chs-sees-bullish-demand-in-soybean-oil-citing-renewable-diesel/600224131/

Historically, most of that oil has been processed for human consumption, such as in salad dressings or cooking oils. But CHS leadership says the facility will also aim to fill in a “demand pull”from a West Coast increasingly seeking cleaner-burning diesel fuels, some made from soybean oil.

Talk of additional markets adding low carbon fuel standards — such as New York — has agriculture executives eyeing unprecedented opportunity.

“The demand pull, just for California, has created this exuberance,” said John Griffith, CHS’ ag business vice president, in an interview late last month. “You could consume all of the soybeans that we export to the world, just in those two markets (California and New York).”

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, only five plants nationwide produce renewable diesel, churning out 590 million gallons in 2020. But six more plants are under construction, according to DOE’s Alternative Fuels Data Center. Capacity is expected to grow by 2 billion gallons.

Renewable diesel can be made from more than oilseed. For instance, Minnetonka-based agriculture giant Cargill will convert beef tallow into oil at a planned Nebraska facility. But soybean purveyors see an advantage in extracting oilseed from a crop grown plentifully across the Midwest.

In North Dakota, Marathon Petroleum has teamed up with Chicago-based commodities trader Archer-Daniels-Midland to open a facility that is expected to produce over half a billion pounds of soybean oil as feedstock for renewable diesel.

Like corn, soybean is a crop that keeps on giving. While 80% of the bean is crushed and made into meal, which is mostly fed to livestock, another 20% goes into extracted oil.

“The question 20 years ago was, ‘What are we going to do with all the soybean oil?’ ” Smentek said. “Now, we ask, ‘What are we going to do with all this soybean meal?’ ”

Renewable diesel — different than biodiesel, which must be mixed with gasoline to power vehicles — is chemically identical to petroleum-based diesel. In other words, it can replace traditional diesel in a heavy-duty vehicle’s engine. Since renewable diesel burns cleaner — or with fewer emissions — than traditional diesel, it’s also highly valued for its low carbon footprint, especially in progressive states.

For the moment, nearly all of the renewable diesel is consumed in California. After approval from their legislatures, Oregon and Washington are also implementing similar low-carbon standards. Other states, including New York, are drafting proposals.

It’s this demand that CHS says it’s chasing. The cooperative finished a $105 million expansion last year at a soybean crush facility in Fairmont, Minn., just north of the Iowa border. Plant workers say they see as many as 500 trucks a day, many bringing crushed soybeans back up to Mankato for refining.

FIrst interim 8 sen
Final dividend will be how much?
SIfu said Cpo in reverse head and shoulder.
Get ready for 5k by end of year.
This qter will be the lowest cpo price at 3200 and already price in.
Look forward to better core profit going forward.
In the next 1 or 2 qtr another 200 to 300 m profit is expected.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-outlook-125-barrel-2023-china-ends-covid-lockdowns-2022-11

Oil prices could be headed significantly higher in 2023, especially if China shifts away from its COVID-19 lockdown policies and towards a full reopening, according to Goldman Sachs. 

In a Monday note, the bank highlighted that its 2023 forecast for Brent crude oil to trade at $110 per barrel has plenty of upside risk to $125 per barrel due to a consistent decline in inventories and spare capacity. On top of that, there is a risk "of meaningful supply disruptions" in Libya, Russia, Iraq, and Iran, which could send oil prices higher.

"The risk distributions around our current oil forecasts are skewed squarely higher given spot demand continues to realize robustly," Goldman Sachs' Callum Bruce wrote.

Brent crude oil currently trades just below $100 per barrel, and it topped out at nearly $140 per barrel shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine. 

There are still plenty of concerns about demand for oil as China continues with its COVID-19 related lockdown policies. Those policies, if they continue, represent the "final significant fundamental downside risk" for oil prices, according to the note.

But recent headlines have hinted that China may be leaning away from their lockdown policies.

"Our China economists believe recent headlines simply mark the start of a multi-month preparation period for reopening, and so have maintained their current base case of 2Q23 reopening, once the winter flu season has passed," Bruce said.

Any further news that China is moving towards a reopening would likely drive upside in oil prices. An early reopening would add $6 to Goldman's $110 per barrel price target, and a full international reopening would add $15 to Goldman's price target to get it to $125 per barrel. 

Such a move in Brent crude oil prices would represent potential upside of 29% from current levels.

Finally, a weakening of the US dollar, which is likely if China fully reopens its economy, could boost oil prices as its year-to-date strength has served as a headwind for commodity prices.

Sifu said cpi will drop and dxy will crash below 108.
Sifu is correct again.

Sifu said china is reopening gradually .
China trim quarantine time by 2 days.

Sifu is correct again.

Sifu shared a wise quote

Bill Gates bought farms long ago, and Buffett bought Occidental Oil later. I wouldn't be surprised if Musk buys Glencore in the future. Americans are still more pragmatic. It is clear from the trend of the Dow and Nasdaq in the US stock market. The traditional economy is booming, the new economy has fallen, and energy and minerals have been trending. Of course, it is also possible that the U.S. capital market is immature, does not understand value investing, and stirs up speculation in traditional industries.

Those industry leaders who are driving world change are buying assets that cannot be changed by the world.
Speculators whose lives cannot be improved are keen to dig out companies that change the world.

Sifu said

Tsh usually give annual dividend at qtr 4.
Base on a bumper profit year, a highest dividend in record will be announced.
25% on total annual profit. If last year is 3 sen this year hopefully is 10 sen.
Expecting a slowly rising trend in Tsh because of that in 3.5 mths time.

Sifu said

Tsh qtrly chart on macd shows a 1st golden cross in march 2022 since 2010.
Thats when director started daily 500k buyback non stop.
Coincident?

Sifu said

Qtrly chart will show you the true direction of all big fund.No noise from ikan bili and fake manipulation.

When qtrly divergent appears.Mean big fund are accumulating on every weakness without public attention.Usually it will appear as bearish trend or weakness in short term indicator.

Sifu said

If you look back quarterly chart of plantation index in 1998 to 2000. There is a bullish divergent in every indicator. After that plantation went on a 8 years bull run  from 2000 to 2008.Plantation index went from 1400 to 7600. After a correction in 2008 ,another 8 years bull run and went back higher to 9400 in 2016 
Total 16 years up trend.

The exact bullish divergent had appeared again in 2022.
Expect the same will happen and this time will break previous ath. Long term Bullish trend for plantation is starting again.

Why 2000? That when tech stock bubble burst. Fund went back to old economy again .

CH­I­NA WO­R­K­I­NG ON A PL­AN TO SC­R­AP CO­V­ID FL­I­G­HT SU­S­P­E­N­S­I­O­NS. FL­I­G­HT BAN MO­VE PA­RT OF CH­I­NA PL­AN TO NO­R­M­A­L­I­ZE AIR TR­A­V­EL.

Sifu said

Opec and russia if in their right mind will not allowed us to replenish their reserve below their selling price. Sell high buy low is not an option.

Sifu said

There are 3 big event in 2023 which is very bullish for commodity especially cpo.

In 2023 cpi will 100% drop because 2022 base data is very high.
So comparative figure wil show big drop in inflation.
So did the real price come down.The answer is no.
Your Roti canai seller doesnt know who is fed.When they raise price they never come down.
In other words we get used to the price already.
If fed follow cpi they will be hard to continue qt.

2. B40 implementation.
History states thats b20 base is 2k never broke even when oil went negative.
b30 base is 3k.
b40 base will be 4k.
Plantation stock valuation is still at 2k to 2.5k.

3.China reopening.
100% will reopen in 2023.China is already preparing for their nasal vaccine for mass use by training their grassroot community.With 3 layers protection the ccp is ready to reopen gradually. Ccp is actually helping to control the hike of commodity price by closing borders and zero covid policy.
Once they open up. All plan by us and fed will be ineffective.
They can jack up to 5 to 6% rate but oil still high price. Probably they can try up to 20% like in 70s.

Sifu said

Get ready for oil above 100 and cpo above 5k by end of year.

Sifu said

Fed keep raise rate.
Oil and vegetable oil not dropping and gaining strength.

Smell of stagflation like 70s. Commodity like palm oil is king in stagflation. Fund already positioning for stagflation as they know rate hike in current scenario wont bring down inflation but only worsen it eventually leading to stagflation.

Smell of bond bursting. Usd is going down even a rate hike cannot save.

Sifu said

Once b40 launch.no more supply glut in any event of recession, depression or watever in the newr future.Unless indonesia ban export for 2 mths which is unlikely. The target is b100 for indonesia very ambitious. Basically limited palm oil for export in future unless production x 2.

https://en.tempo.co/read/1652143/esdm-ministry-upbeat-b40-can-be-implemented-in-early-2023

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Minister of Energy, Resources, and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arifin Tasrif shared optimism that the use of 40 percent biodiesel (B40) fuel can be implemented in early 2023. B40 means it contains a 40% blend of palm oil-derived biofuel and 60% diesel.

“B40 is ready to be launched in January, inshallah, depending on the test results. We’re optimistic,” said Arifin on Tuesday, November 1, 2022. He said the road test has been carried out since the end of July 2022 and is targeted to end this month.

Based on the results of current monitoring and evaluation, he continued, B40 is believed to answer energy needs and support efforts to reduce vehicle emissions. From the series of trials carried out, the government hoped that the B100 target can be achieved in the future.

Sifu said

You can shout whatever you want.
But you cannot change mthly trend reversal since 2008.Its a mega trend that all fund must obey.

Sifu said

Long term elliot wave wont go wrong.

The monthly chart above shows the five waves advance from 3.1.2008 and the different degrees within the cycle. The idea is overall bullish for the USDX. However, there are two possibilities for the Dollar Index. It can make a significant correction soon and drop hard to correct the whole cycle. Alternatively, it will just correct the cycle since the lows at 02.01.2018 and continue higher.


https://elliottwave-forecast.com/commodities/usdx-the-index-structure-showing-an-opportunity-to-buy-commodities/

The $USDX Monthly charts overlay with $XAGUSD (Silver); as we can see, the metal should not be trading below zero and has been holding the lows, while the USDX is close to a peak. Understanding and reading the market makes a huge difference in being on the right side and knowing which instruments to trade.

In Conclusion: 2023 might provide a pullback in the USDX, which means higher $EURUSD, $AUDUSD, $NZDUSD, $GBPUSD, and higher commodities. Commodities should hold stronger against the $USDX, and provide a better buying into 2023.

Sifu said

Meanwhile bloomberg agriculture index had breakout from 14 yrs secular bear trend since 2008. Reversal of tech to tradtional is in progress.

In the past two weeks, U.S. stocks have told two stories, one is the bull market joy story of the rising valuation of traditional blue-chip stocks led by the Dow; the other is the continuous decline of growth stocks represented by big technology, and the decline is enough to wake up the market veterans about 2000 Memories of the 2019 tech stock crash. The "scissors difference" between blue-chip and technology indicates that when the new cycle starts, everything will be different.

Art Hogan further explained: "Looking back, this market, and the broader economy, is starting to remind me of the 2000-2002 pattern, when extreme tech weakness impacted the major indices, but the performance of more traditional parts of the market and economy was better."

Dan Suzuki said investors should keep in mind that "a bear market always heralds a change in the industry leading the next cycle". That means tech won't be the leader when the next bull market begins.

Ukraine war: Russia halts grain deal after 'massive' Black Sea Fleet attack

“If the green corridor is closed big and small farms alike will go bankrupt, everyone understands that," says Viktor Bykov, CEO of Tecom Agro Group Ltd, an agricultural company that leases 26,000 hectares of farmland in and around the Odesa region. 

Still, in a war Putin has pitched to the developing world as a struggle against Western domination, he could settle for the disruption caused even with the grain deal in place; ending it would risk turning more nations against him, driving global prices for wheat, sunflower oil and other food staples back to the stratospheric levels seen in May.  

Ukraine war: Russia halts grain deal after 'massive' Black Sea Fleet attack

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63439760

https://gapki.id/en/news/22172/ri-to-start-commercial-production-of-palm-oil-gasoline-in-2024

Beside palm oil bio diesel.
Palm oil Bio gasoline on the way.

Sifu is correct again

Usd dxy double top going to 108 soon.
Vegetable oil is rallying and cpo is going to 5k.

Sifu is correct again.
Fed is softening on rate and yellen want buy bond to boost liquidity.

Sifu said

Big fund will be convinced of long term profitability on new range of cpo price above 4k.
Plantation new bull trend will commence after retracing from break out on 7 years down trend .

Cautious to tech sector as long term interest will be higher which means tech high valuation high pe will not be seen in next 7 years.
Fed will not be able to give ultra low rate to zero again in future as usd will be ditched by many countries as it progresses to lose its major reserve currency st
To maintain usd strength long term  higher rate in average is expected.

China is plotting a big digital shift to eyuan which will float its renminbi  along its belt and road countries,brics and allies based on major payment platform using wechat,alipay etc on a flip of button once it is ready.That will pose a very big challenge and a deathblow to dollar hedgemony.

Expecting Us to duplicate a ukraine war in taiwan in 1 to 3 years. Avoid tech stock it will be a poison to hold in future just like glove in the past 2 years.

As usual from covid to financial crisis to  war (nuclear even).
Palm oil will be resilient and profitable.