4 most important assets to own in US and the world during the reset and unrest.

Food,oil,guns and gold.

https://phys.org/news/2023-02-war-ukraine-trigger-investment-financial.html

The war in Ukraine could trigger a land investment rush as happened during the 2008 financial crisis

The Federal Reserve issued the Bank Term Financing Plan (BTFP) in an emergency, indicating that Powell and Yellen jointly realized that this is a common problem and a systemic risk. The bond price fell due to interest rate hikes. According to the loss ratio of Silicon Valley Bank, the US 57 trillion $5 trillion in potential bond losses is a nuclear bomb, and these losses are lurking in thousands of banks and institutions large and small.

Repeat this again.
More banks gonna blow.
FED GOT NO ABILILITY TO PRINT SO MUCH MONEY 5 TRILLION.

The Federal Reserve quickly came to the rescue. To be precise, it gave emergency loans to $Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB)$ for depositor withdrawals.

The conclusion was that the depositors were saved and panic runs were avoided. SVB returned the funds after liquidation to the Federal Reserve, and SVB’s shareholders returned to zero , no more Silicon Valley Bank!

The Federal Reserve issued the Bank Term Financing Plan (BTFP) in an emergency, indicating that Powell and Yellen jointly realized that this is a common problem and a systemic risk. The bond price fell due to interest rate hikes. According to the loss ratio of Silicon Valley Bank, the US 57 trillion $5 trillion in potential bond losses is a nuclear bomb, and these losses are lurking in thousands of banks and institutions large and small.

BTFP is actually QE in disguise that is, the Fed lends to the bank, and the bank sells the bonds within one year to obtain funds to repay the loan, which means that the Fed’s shrinking balance sheet and interest rate hike have terminated.

Powell probably hope that inflation will naturally fall? After this incident, the logic of the market may undergo major changes. Inflation/interest rate hikes are no longer the focus. The focus is on the balance sheets of banks/institutions. Only deleveraging can survive.

No wonder commodity start to rise after the annoucement.

Warren Buffett
17 years holding U.S. Bancorp bank
33 years holding Well Fargo
All totally disposed few mths ago
Why?

Buffett began reducing his holdings of Wells Fargo two years ago and cleared his position last year.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2023/03/10/wells-fargo-customers-report-missed-paychecks-due-to-apparent-glitch/

The US side is discussing the issue of funding deposits in the event of more bank failures.

Preparing for more bank failures.....

Probably one of the first that warn about bank on i3 a mth ago.

Banks began to be run on one after another, and Powell himself should have expected this result. Let's see if he chooses the financial crisis or the re-explosion of inflation.Biden should have thought of the surge in supply chain costs caused by anti-globalization. The 2% inflation target maintained throughout the year has completely become history. In the near future , Biden and fed will most likely be forced to revise inflation upwards target to 3-4%. If it reaches this point and is still trying to contain China (80% probability), the world will thus enter a long-term stagflation in the style of the 1970s. The equity market has been in a long-term slump and negative decline, and technology stocks and high PE sectors will soon see a bloody downturn. Prices of precious metals and international agricultural products will soar, and food shortages in some small countries will intensify.

No wonder even Elon started to buy farm and land.

Siv bank is dead in 2 days and put up for sale . Now no buyer .
Next is First republic bank.

Good news is Fed might slow down rate hike or stop.
Bad news is commodity will rise again.

“What you find is there’s never just one cockroach in the kitchen when you start looking around,” the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway


No wonder Warren sold off bank and tech recently.

Now the consequences of raising interest rates in the United States are beginning to appear, and the thunderstorm of Silicon Valley Bank is just the beginning. Why banks will bear the brunt, there are the following aspects:

1. Banks' high debt ratio and reflexive fragility cannot withstand the liquidity crisis under the economic recession

2. Under the interest rate hike in the United States, corporate financing rates have increased, profitability has declined, bank loan bad debts have increased significantly, and the superimposed high debt ratio and high leverage operating characteristics will quickly reduce the bank's net assets and net profits.

3. In the previous low-interest environment, banks bought a large number of low-interest government bonds and corporate bonds. During the interest rate hike cycle, bond prices plummeted, and interest income could not cover deposit interest payments, resulting in serious investment losses.

The bank crisis origins and starts from lending to high risk tech. High rates will implode these debts.
Last time is subprime.
This time probably bubble tech will start the ball rolling.
In Bursa tech ipo keep mushrooming. These resemble 100% like in dotcom crisis.

US banking start tanking.Another prophecy comes true.
Respect those dare to hold banks.
Financial crisis is ticking time bomb waiting to explode.Dunno when but 100% will come according to history.
Stay in TSH safe and sound.

Naysayers do your job.
Help the buyers to buy cheap.

If you bet against agriculture price means you can beat climate change.

KUALA LUMPUR, March 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's biodiesel policy and the likely emergence of the El Nino weather pattern could further strain global inventories of the most used cooking oil, lifting prices later this year, leading industry officials and analysts said at a conference.

The market for vegetable oils is set to tighten for a year from mid-2023 as global biodiesel production could rise by around 4.5 million tonnes in 2023, leading industry analyst Thomas Mielke told a palm oil conference in Kuala Lumpur.

Indonesia, the world's biggest producer of palm oil, raised the mandatory blend of palm oil in biodiesel to 35% starting in February, from 30% earlier, to reduce diesel fuel imports amid high global energy prices and to reduce emissions.

"Rising demand and limited growth in (vegetable oil) supplies would bring us into a global production deficit in July to December this year and January to June 2024," said Mielke, who heads Hamburg-based research firm Oil World.

He forecast Malaysian refined bleached deodorized (RBD) palm olein prices could jump nearly 16% to $1,150 per tonne in the second half of 2023.

Malaysian production in 2023 is likely to rise by 600,000 tonnes to 19 million tonnes, while Indonesian production is seen rising by 1.2 million tonnes to 47.7 million tonnes, he said.

Dorab Mistry, the director of Indian consumer goods company Godrej International, expects Malaysian palm oil to trade between 4,000 and 5,000 ringgit ($1,106) per tonne from now until August.

The benchmark palm oil contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange slid 24 ringgit to 4,181 ringgit a tonne on Wednesday.

EL NINO FEARS

Leading Malaysian palm oil producers, such as FGV HoldingsFGVH.KL and United PlantationsUTPS.KL told Reuters that the El Nino weather pattern, predicted to emerge mid-this year, could reduce production in 2024.

An El Nino episode usually results in below-average rainfall in main palm oil producers Indonesia and Malaysia, cutting yields and pushing up global prices.

Malaysia and Indonesia are already grappling with La Nina-induced wet weather conditions and flooding that have curtailed production in the past few months.

"This is climate change... Mother Nature has put a booster rocket under agricultural prices," Mistry said.

EV car producer is going into price war death spiral mode.
Squeezing their profit margin thinner and thinner.
Same to their suppliers.

www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1121903/malaysia-s-blueprint-for-biomass-to-be-ready-by-july-says-fadillah-yusof

PH is very friendly to plantation sector . Will heavy develop downstream of plantation sector.
Even EPF chairman is on board Sime plantation board.
You think next sector to push is which sector so that EPF can give good dividend next year?

Sime Darby Plantation Appoints EPF CEO To The Board
www.businesstoday.com.my/2023/02/17/sime-darby-plantation-appoints-epf-ceo-to-the-board/

Those who say TSH will not benefit from Indonesia biofuel mandate can read these old but still relevant news.


TSH Resources set to gain from Indonesia’s biodiesel mandate
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/tsh-resources-set-gain-indonesias-biodiesel-mandate



KUALA LUMPUR: TSH Resources Bhd’s large exposure to Indonesia puts it in good stead as the republic ramps up its biodiesel mandate to B25 in 2019.

With the Indonesian government’s push to make it mandatory for biodiesel to have a bio-content of at least 25% beginning 2019, the consumption of palm oil in the highly populated country is only going to grow, according to TSH group managing director Datuk Tan Aik Sim.

Indonesia has planned to increase its biodiesel mandate from its current rate of 20% to 25% from 2019. The B25 could double Indonesia’s consumption of palm oil — the raw ingredient for fatty acid methyl ester — to between 5.5 million and six million kilolitres in 2019, according to a news report citing Indonesia’s New and Renewable Energy director Rida Mulyana.

This bodes well for TSH’s long-term growth strategy, as the group has strategic land bank in the country suitable for the cultivation of oil palm.

“Many are saying that Kalimantan has millions of hectares (ha). But the truth is, Kalimantan has vast land area, but the ones that are strategic for plantation are not easy to come by now. But for TSH, we have the avenue to do it (plant),” said Tan.

The group has a total plantation land in Kalimantan and Sumatera in Indonesia and Sabah in Malaysia measuring 99,523ha. A total of 54,232ha are unplanted estates in Indonesia.

Of the group’s total hectarage, some 42.3% are planted and spread out with a weighted average age of 8½ years.

It operates seven palm oil mills after the latest one in Sumatera started commercial run early this year, with a total production capacity of 2.4 million tonnes and an average utilisation rate of 80%, Tan guided.

“We had bought these land [earlier], with the long-term view of developing it progressively.

0 seconds ago

2022 FEB

Employees Provident Fund Board 44,671,148 3.24%

2023
Employees Provident Fund 67,280,000 4.87%

Seems EPF is secretly buying back TSH.
1.6 million share more will become substantial shareholder again.

Palm oil may climb into a range of 4,418 ringgit to 4,459 ringgit, as it has broken a resistance at 4,343 ringgit per tonne. The resistance is identified as the 161.8% projection level of a wave 3 from 3,851 ringgit.

This wave now has a better chance to extend into 4,575-4,647 ringgit range.

The drop triggered by the resistance at 4,418 ringgit last week is regarded as a pullback towards the Jan. 3 high of 4,276 ringgit.

The pullback may have completed as palm oil has been recovering steadily from the drop.

A break below 4,271 ringgit could be followed by a fall into 4,155-4,227 ringgit range.

On the daily chart, the contract is riding on a wave C from 3,721 ringgit, which is expected to travel into a range of 4,510-4,998 ringgit range.

Palm oil logs fourth weekly rise on flooding woes

An inverted head-and-shoulders is taking shape, which will be confirmed when the resistance at 4,510 ringgit is broken.

It will suggest an aggressive target of 5,787 ringgit.

The fund want to push plantation.So someone need to keep quiet.

Tesla want to make ev without rare earth with 3x more expensive alternative vs china using super efficient rare earth for ev production at ultra cheap cost.

No wonder tesla dropped so much after investor presentation.

Same like got cheap palm oil dont want to use want to use expensive alternative.

When the western can print free money they can do all sort anti gravity stunt.
When they found out they cannot issue blank cheque anymore in future.
Ironman superpower will be gone and become human being again.

By then everyone will know what is the true price of basic commodity.
Like tony said now the air ticket price is normal.Cheap air ticket in the past is abnormal.

EV sales collapse as subsidies and tax credits come to an abrupt halt, Rystad says

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1119629/ev-sales-collapse-as-subsidies-and-tax-credits-come-to-an-abrupt-halt-rystad-says


Rystad said tax credits and government subsidies have propped up the EV market to date, as countries identify passenger car fleet electrification as a core tactic for meeting net-zero emissions goals, but the reduction or removal of these subsidies this year has dampened consumer sentiment.

It said automakers are now scrambling to reverse the downward spiral and salvage the market in 2023.

Rystad said the automotive market is usually cyclical, with sales taking a hit after new subsidy rules come into effect at the start of each year, followed by a gradual recovery.

However, it said the cuts in January this year hit harder than normal, triggering this dramatic collapse.

“The ramifications of this will be long-lasting and will impact sales through the first quarter of the year and potentially the rest of 2023.

“EV subsidies in many European countries and mainland China were sliced at the start of the year, and a return of any significance is highly unlikely in the immediate future,” it said.


Stock: [TSH]: TSH RESOURCES BHD

 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

When China dominate the ev metals and EV car export market in future.
You will see western power will start bombard EV car is not green.
All subsidies will be removed.
ESG fund will exit.

MUMBAI, March 1 (Reuters) - India has decided to scrap a duty-free imports quota of 2 million tonnes of crude sunflower oil for the next fiscal starting from April 1, the government said on Wednesday, as the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils tries to support local oilseed farmers.

The move could lead to higher imports of palm oil, which was earlier attracting taxes even as imports of sunflower oil and soyoil were allowed without any taxes under the quota.

New Delhi in May 2022 allowed duty free imports of 2 million tonnes of sunflower oil in 2022/23 and had initially planned to repeat that in 2023/24.

India sources sunflower oil from Russia and Ukraine.

In January, India decided to scrap duty free imports of crude soyoil for the new fiscal year.

India imports soyoil mainly from Argentina, Brazil and the United States.

"Crude palm oil imports would become attractive from April onwards," said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.

India imports palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.

https://palmoilina.asia/berita-sawit/bensin-sawit-solusi-kurangi-impor/

Palm Gasoline Is The Future Of Indonesia's Energy Security

The success of biodiesel in reducing dependence on imported diesel is inseparable from policy support, namely the mandatory biodiesel program . Learning from this experience, Indonesia can put into practice a mandatory palm oil gasoline program . To accelerate the reduction of dependence on imported gasoline, the palm oil mandatory program must be implemented intensively and progressively, for example, from the mixing level of palm oil with fossil fuels from the G-10 to the G-20 and G-50.

With the mandatory implementation of palm oil gasoline, Indonesia can reduce its high dependency on imported gasoline so that it is relatively more resistant to the dynamics of global oil prices and the global energy crisis. The strong commitment of all stakeholders and coupled with public support means that national energy security is not a necessity for Indonesia to achieve.

Still waiting for cpo to fall to 2K?
4k will be the baseline.
At 4k,Tsh easy make 200 to 300 million annually.

Added more at weakness. Fcpo stabilising at 3 to 4k,Tsh is able make minimum 200 mil operation profit annually. Giving higher than fd dividend yield.Good for growing your assets with spare money and no worry about waking up facing limit down ,pn 17 ,china us crisis,stagflation scenario.

If cpo stays above 4k,would be extra bonus .

Basically invest in plantation stock now and get dividend for 7 years.You get your stock foc.

Fed is going to revise inflation target to 2.85 from 2.

The implication is huge and wide.
Current high commodity price will remain sticky and accepted as normal in future.
Meaning enjoy your cpo 4k as baseline in future.
Enjoy your 10% dividend yield from plantation stock for a very long time until market drive it down to 5% when they seek for high return.

Tech stock longterm valuation will further erode.

If you think there is going to be a bonus share in 2024.
Historical Price action recorded a price action 1 year before bonus issue.
So monitor closely 2023 price movement of TSH especially it is moving defiance or divergent to plantation index or the KLCI.

Seems like TSH wkly chart breakout is coming.

All major foundry utilisation rate dropped to 60 to 70% due to over supply capacity.
MPI profit drop to 18m. Wont surprise we start seeing Tech lossess coming in future.
Sounds like Glove 2.0.

When will plantation bull run ends?
When there is another or few plantation stock enter KLCI.
When Supermax enter KLCI. Glove bull run end.
When Inari enter KLCI, Tech bull run end.
So which plantation stock will emerge new entry into KLCI ?

Financial sector is toppish. Fund will exit sooner or later.
To support index from crashing it will flow to other sector.
Fund already went in utitlity to support index while unwinding from banks
The next biggest sector to support the index is plantation.
Plantation sector is still cheap and did not reflect the fact that CPO had doubled.

If fund is smart should sell toppish financial sector and crowded tech and buy in less crowded and oversold plantation.
Warren Buffet sold a lot of banks and TSMC in latest filing.

When China dominate the ev metals and EV car export market in future.
You will see western power will start bombard EV car is not green.
All subsidies will be removed.
ESG fund will exit.

Tsh will eventually follow past Inno price action.
As both follow same boss corporate mission.
Tsh boss experiment on inno is successful and is now transforming Tsh into 2nd inno.
Inno is net cash and now TSH is net cash with no or minimal debt.
The next step to follow will increase yield to attract long term fund.
Replanting had potentially increase future production by 40% which shows growth intact.
Transformation is ongoing and price will reflect.
3 years ago no one can believe inno will fly from 30 sen to 1.50.

Self-driving cars would be a climate disaster

Autonomous vehicles are bad for the planet, no matter how efficient their computers become.
https://www.fastcompany.com/90846919/self-driving-cars-would-be-a-climate-disaster

Warren buffett trim 86% stake in TSMC .(becareful with your tech)
Increase stake in OXY.(energy)

Media is under reporting.
The chemical will seeps into ground in ohia farms making it unsuitable for massive agriculture for next 50 years.
So just in case, do not buy farm product from us east coast anymore.

A Massive chemical accident happened in Ohio, USA. Train carrying hazardous materials blew up off the tracks. Local residents report headaches and nausea. Another Chernobyl?

https://mobile.twitter.com/ThePollLady/status/1624841041349148672

Serious consequences slowly appearing

Tech index is ready for 2nd leg downtrend on monthly chart. 30 to 40 % correction in coming mths.
Becareful with your tech stock.

Have warned before banking is the next to collapse.
Mthly chart macd death cross with a triple top chart spanning over 8 years.
Interest rate at peak but cant break out triple top is very bearish.
What if BN start cut rate?
Be very careful with your banking stock.

First is Dnex , now is Myeg. One by one prophecy is coming true
All these tech company are with old political entrenched legacy.
Plantation is one of the protected ones by the new gomen.

Stock: [TSH]: TSH RESOURCES BHD

1 month ago | Report Abuse



Drama at dnex is a sign of downtrend in malaysia tech industry.
Dnex is going to be a showcase to international investor that malaysia tech is next golden goose that unseen hand is killing.
Be cautious decades of uptrend in tech means alot of selling off on every rebound.Bankers simply got too much chip accumulated over past decade to dispose so they will fake bull trap to dispose.

TSH break out with a reverse Head and Shoulder pattern just as predicted.

Good vibes for palm oil and wind of change.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2023/2/2/23568192/palm-oil-deforestation-sustainable
Palm oil is actually not that bad (anymore)
Palm oil once destroyed orangutan-filled rainforests in Southeast Asia. Now, the industry is cleaning up its act.


HTTPS://WWW.FOODNAVIGATOR.COM/ARTICLE/2023/01/31/WHAT-DOES-EUROPE-S-DEFORESTATION-LAW-MEAN-FOR-PALM-OIL-RSPO-TALKS-CHALLENGES-AND-OPPORTUNITIES
What does Europe’s deforestation law mean for palm oil? RSPO talks challenges and opportunities
31-Jan-2023 By Flora Southey

A political agreement has been reached on the European Union’s due diligence legislation, and sustainable palm oil organisation Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) is supportive. Yet challenges and risks exist, explains Ruben Brunsveld, deputy director of EMEA.

Plantation index rally day.

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2023/02/03/us-finds-no-forced-labour-in-sime-darbys-palm-oil-production/

What happen when WHO 1st call for fight against trans fat in 1990s.

In the 1990s, U.S. and E.U. regulators moved to ban unhealthy trans fat, a type of fat found in partially hydrogenated oils, from foods. Manufacturers turned to palm oil as a cheap and effective substitute. From 2000 through 2020, E.U. palm oil imports more than doubled, while U.S. imports shot up almost tenfold. Many consumers didn’t even notice the switch.

https://www.who.int/news/item/23-01-2023-five-billion-people-unprotected-from-trans-fat-leading-to-heart-disease
Now WHO new call for total ban in less wealthy country.
These countries are populous .Far more consumers than developed world.
Removing trans fat from their product will increase palm oil demand greatly.

Energy index is always a leading indicator to Plantation index in Bursa.
Energy index is bullish and breaks out.
Fund will rotate and flow into plantation index.
Plantation is still lagged and will follow suit.
Look at their comparison chart historically and you will know what will plantation index paints in 2023.
Yes, bullish and breaks out.

Dun get so excited.
Dun worry no one will believe my joke.