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2022-08-23 08:47 | Report Abuse
sifu said
Commodity bull run is starting again.
This time lead by
1. OPEC disatisfied with US shorting the oil future and decide to defend by planning to cut production.
2. China aggressive cut interest rate to spur economy activity will spur demand in mid to long term.
2022-08-22 18:00 | Report Abuse
If add back 1 time impairment profit is still 100 million.
Core operation profit improved. Nothing wrong.
2022-08-22 15:33 | Report Abuse
Sifu said .
For the past 100 yrs of cpo history.
When price broke 800, many will say will drop back below 400.
When price broke 1800, many will say will drop back tbelow 800
When price broke 4000 resistance ,many still say will drop back below1800.
Every time it broke the resistance.
Palm oil stock will also break resistance in 1 to 2 yrs time.
Why so long,because big fund will only buy for long term when got consistent profit.
They as well will dump during initial break out.
Look at klk in 2008.
Broke 5 to 12 drop back to 5 go back to 12 and broke the resitance 2 yrs later and never went back down below 12 until now.Those bought klk at 12 before it went back to 5 were profitable 2 yrs later in 2010 when it broke the resistance at 12.
Palm oil company must have patience. Because big fund are all very patient.
Of course if want quick profit then dont invest palm oil.
Do you know all efb stock in malaysia are all sold out at very good pricing because many company are investing in bio product to move away from fossil fuel.This is the future.
Imagine all fossil product are made from plant based in future. Just like ev investor imagine all old car convert into ev car.They are both future trend.
2022-08-18 13:13 | Report Abuse
Sifu said.
Many people thought tsh land sale is nothing just a simple business disposal for profit.
But sifu said on superficial level its so.
But he said there are more to ponder.
So many palm oil company in indonesia .Why tsh.
So many plot of land in tsh.Why pick a non productive land?
Sifu personally felt that everyone knows why tsh is picked.
The non productive piece of land was picked because location is best and non productive so the cost of land wont be too high for acquisition. If its a highly productive land probably might fetch a much higher price.
Then there are proximity value advantage to other tsh land nearby.
The Bulungan Regency land sale was obviously picked with strategic advantage to tsh.
The plot of land will be the seeding land for nusantara heart.
It will house nusantara green power generation industrial park in future where international company like tesla will set up their plant here or nearby to tap on green energy in future .
So you can see whoever got to contribute this initial seeding land got huge advantage.
Of course tsh and indonesia bosses will pick a seeding land which is nearby to own land.Do u think they will pick a land near to klk or competitor ? If there is.
And coincidentally. Boss up his daily acquisition to 500k when the nusantara masterplan and the acquisition of seeding land is confirmed.
2022-08-18 09:41 | Report Abuse
Sifu said.
Those anti palm oil are all brainwashed by western media. At least palm tree absorb more co2 then soybean and sunflower. Birds and wild boar can be found. Look at sunflower and soybean crop. Not even insect as too much pesticide .
2022-08-18 09:17 | Report Abuse
Sifu said.
Thats why plantation company buy land when qe start with ultra low interest and sell some to cover most of their land purchases profit when land price jacked up due to qe.
Like tsh sell 1 non productive land to cover 10 borrowed productive land is super smart.
2022-08-18 08:58 | Report Abuse
Sifu said.
Simple logic.
Cheap land cheap palm oil.
When land become super expensive due to qe,it warrant a high oil price.
At 2k palm oil is making loss if u buy a piece of land to grow now.
So u need 4k and above to expand.
But now problem is even with 4 k cannot expand much.
So the price will bounce around 4 to 5 k to find equilibrium and to firm within new box.
By that time after few yrs.Consumer already used to rm2.00 roti canait.And fed will start qe again. History repeat.
Thats what happen to palm oil over the past 100 yrs.
2022-08-17 21:35 | Report Abuse
Price of olive oil to rise 25% as heatwave hits crops
Olive oil prices could rise by up to 25 per cent as heatwaves hamper production in Spain, a leading exporter has warned.
The warning comes as droughts on the continent also threaten to send prices soaring for French and Swiss cheese.
Heatwaves have been sweeping through Europe this summer, with France, Italy and Portugal among those experiencing prolonged bouts of extreme heat.
Spain is also experiencing one of its hottest summers on record, as well as drought affecting crops such as avocados and olives.
A leading Spanish producer told the BBC these difficult weather conditions are likely to have a knock-on effect on supermarket prices.
Heatwaves have had a “drastic” effect on production, according to Miguel Colmenero from Acesur, whose olive oil products are sold in UK supermarkets such as Tesco and Sainsbury’s.
Amid the scorching weather and drought conditions, Spain is forecast to produce around 400,000 fewer tonnes of olive oil this year, he told the BBC.
Mr Colmenero reportedly said customers could expect to see a change in supermarket prices in the next three or four months when contracts are renewed, and estimated an increase of 20 to 25 per cent.
Wildfires have broken out in Spain amid extreme heat and dry conditions
Acesur’s export manager also told the broadcaster dry weather could affect next season’s crop if there is not enough water for olive trees to grow new branches.
Spain experienced its hottest July on record this year, with an average temperature of 25.6C, nearly 3C up from the previous record.
The extreme heat and lack of rain have caused many wildfires and worsened drought in many areas, as well as being responsible for hundreds of deaths.
2022-08-17 10:35 | Report Abuse
Sifu said.
Whatever info he shared an arranged are meant for long term investor.
Short will ignore and sell to long term investor.
Thats why he said will take 1 to 2 yrs to manifest.
2022-08-16 18:07 | Report Abuse
How bad will the global food crisis get?
Food commodity prices are falling but experts say global production and hunger rates might be even worse in 2023 .
“What sets this global food crisis apart from previous similar situations is that there are multiple major causes behind it,” says Cary Fowler, US special envoy for food security. The true impact of this combination of factors will only become apparent next year, analysts say. “I’m more worried about 2023 than 2022,”
No return to normal
Consumers may need to get used to permanently higher food prices, economists warn. Capital Economics forecasts that market levels will “remain at historically high prices” due to the increased volatility in the weather. “It’s undeniable that we’re seeing lower yields and harvests” over the past few years due to the growing impact of climate change, says Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at the research firm. Some analysts wonder whether the conflict has started a process of dismantling a trade system designed to deliver low-cost goods, including food commodities, to all corners of the globe. Wellesley says that the global food trading system that allowed countries to access all kinds of foods is not set to return to normal any time soon. “That in turn likely means continued high food and fertiliser prices and a reconfiguration of trade dependencies, perhaps with a greater focus on more regional supply chains.”
https://www.ft.com/content/e44db6b3-7266-4188-8d08-79d678a61146
2022-08-16 11:40 | Report Abuse
Sifu said.
This is what local fund wont tell you in tech. Sounds like glove 2.0.
今年以来,芯片行业出现了离奇的降价销售现象。
作为2021年最畅销的芯片产品之一的意法半导体芯片,是电子控制系统的核心部件。它的市场报价一度上涨至3500元左右一个,然而2022年其价格直接从高位下滑至600元左右一个,降价幅度超过80%。另一型号的芯片,在2021年价格维持在200元左右一个,目前售价仅为每个20元左右,只有最高价的十分之一。
曾经掀起全球热潮的芯片,如今降价都难售,这究竟是怎么一回事?
近两年,由于各国企业对芯片产业的投入逐年加大,导致全球芯片出现了一种叫结构性供给过剩的现象。
供给过剩的芯片主要集中在消费电子领域,尤其是在面板用芯片、通信用芯片、模拟芯片等众多大类芯片中,价格降幅都不小。其中,大部分近两月内跌价超过20%,部分芯片降价超80%。
以手机为例,手机相关类芯片曾是过去十年中最火的芯片,随着全球经济不确定性增强,以及受反复横跳的疫情影响,很多消费者从消费转向储蓄,消费欲望被大大遏制,导致全球手机销量不断下滑。数据显示,2022年二季度全球PC出货量同比下降12.6%,创九年来最大降幅。2022年二季度全球智能手机出货量同比减少9%。
手机需求下降,手机用电子芯片供大于求。随之各大手机厂商纷纷调低出货量目标,并向上游芯片厂商砍单。
这降价的背后,是由于过去出现的“芯片荒”,让许多芯片制造商们不断扩产增能。各路资本疯狂涌入芯片行业,带来了库存的同比增长。 以全球近2350家芯片相关的上市制造公司为统计对象,2022年一季度库存金额比2021年年底暴增约970亿美元,库存剩余量和增量皆创10年来新高。
库存的暴增,加剧产能过剩导致的价格下降,也会加剧芯片市场的需求分化
2022-08-15 09:35 | Report Abuse
Sifu said.
Things to ponder over boss diligent sbb:
1.He has a plan.
2.He doesnt care much about share or cpo price.
3.He cares about qty of sbb. Raised from 200k to 500k . Sticking to 500k almost religiously.
4. Change of 200k to 500k daily probably due to change of plan timeline and not because of price.Something happened which brought forward the timeline. What happen he said go find out yourself more interesting that way.
5. 500k daily if maintain for 1 year will cross 30% threshold.3 yrs to 40 to 50%.
6. The boss is slowly and diligently executing his plan without much market agitation.
7. Initial daily sbb will arouse market attention but gradually numb the public as non event.
8. This is not impulsive sbb as compared to glove bosses.This is a precise execution of masterplan.
9. 1st phase of Nusantara schedule to complete in 3 yrs 2025 coincidentally.
10. He got strong financial backing to carry out plan.
11. Total land value is valued at about 8b based on latest land sale. If plan to privatise, prevent forceful buy over, value investing or to become next klk is a good move.
12....to be added by other great sifu
2022-08-14 08:06 | Report Abuse
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/08/the-new-normal-how-europe-is-being-hit-by-a-climate-driven-drought-crisis
The new normal’: how Europe is being hit by a climate-driven drought crisis
Europe’s most severe drought in decades is hitting homes, factories, farmers and freight across the continent, as experts warn drier winters and searing summers fuelled by global heating mean water shortages will become “the new normal.”
Sifu said.
Chart dont lie. When it broke above 4k box.
It signify fundamental change.
Gigantic Qe is the financial fundamental shift.
Climate change is one of the many key physical fundamental changes.
2022-08-13 21:46 | Report Abuse
http://southasiajournal.net/commodities-do-not-cause-inflation-money-printing-does/
In this world of monetary insanity, defenders of central bank constant easing try every day to convince you that inflation is caused by numerous factors, not by currency printing.
Many blame inflation on cost-push factors or even speculation, but ultimately all those are consequences, not causes.
Rising prices are always caused by more units of currency being directed to scarce or tangible assets.
According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the total value of various commodity index-related instruments purchased by institutional investors has increased from an estimated $15 billion in 2003 to an estimated $200 billion. The global commodity-services market size is estimated at $4 trillion in 2020, according to Market Research.According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the total value of various commodity index-related instruments purchased by institutional investors has increased from an estimated $15 billion in 2003 to an estimated $200 billion. The global commodity-services market size is estimated at $4 trillion in 2020, according to Market Research.
Oil and gas will be used as an excuse for inflation as long as low interest rates and massive currency creation remain. But the reality is that when both deflate somehow, the problem of currency debasement will remain.
Now the increase in broad money has translated to an explosion in all prices, energy-related or not. Some will blame wages, others will blame the Ukraine war, and others will blame the weak recovery. The fact is that currency destruction is at the heart of generalized price rises everywhere. Everything else is anecdotes or consequences, not causes.
More units of currency are going to scarce assets as investors look for protection against inflation. This is not speculation; it is protection from currency debasement.
Sifu said.
If you read deep into this article. You will know what 2008 qe cycle did to palm oil price will happen again this 2021 cycle.
The only difference is this time qe is bigger than the total sum of the past. Thats why it can break the strongest resistance of palm oil hundred years history 4k.
2022-08-12 12:15 | Report Abuse
Sifu said. Take note of this event. It will hugely impact crops in europe region.
It is already impacting in food commodity future lately.
CPO out of europe region will be needed to replace all these affected and contaminated harvest.
Europe region crop will be less prefered in future. Just be informed and be prepared.
If the Ukrainian forces continue their attacks on the power plant, a disaster can happen “at any moment,” Nebenzia warned. According to the Russian envoy to the UN, a catastrophe at the Zaporozhye power plant – the biggest one in Europe – could lead to radioactive pollution of vast swathes of territory, affecting at least eight Ukrainian regions, including its capital, Kiev, major cities like Kharkov or Odessa, and some territories of Russia and Belarus bordering Ukraine. The Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, as well as Moldova, Romania, and Bulgaria are likely to suffer as well, he warned.
“And these are the most optimistic expert forecasts,” Nebenzia said, adding that the potential scale of a nuclear disaster of such magnitude was “difficult to imagine.”
2022-08-12 07:51 | Report Abuse
Sifu said. Free service got no data for 1980s.
His data on 1989 aug showed klk around 60 sen.
He said klk broke rm5.00 resistance in 2008 qe then went up to 12 in 1 yr.
Retrace to rm5 again in 5 mth shake out all weaklings. Retest 12 in 1 yr.
Took 5 mth broke resistance.Since then never come back below 12 until now 22.
Sounds familiar to current 2021 QE?
We are retracing to rm 1 after 1 year rally.
2022-08-11 15:26 | Report Abuse
Sifu said.
Back in 80s CPO is below 800. KLK is only at 60 sen.
Now 2022 CPO is trading above 4k. KLK is above rm22.
Very Clear Trend.
Before 4k box break out plantation not worth to invest.
It is because many plantation is working for bank because assets and land are own through borrowing.
Now like TSH no longer work for bank . As they would be able to clear off all their debts. They are debt free.
TSH will have NTA 2.++ by next year.
PB about 0.5.
The only thing bad thing is boss keep buying. And that is also the good thing.
2022-08-11 11:20 | Report Abuse
Retired sifu told my friend.
It took more than 40 years for palm oil to break usd3800 box.
It is very very very difficult to acchieve. There are many times in history oil broke usd100 even USD150.
He asked my friend why no one ponder on that.
He said everytime Palm oil broke box of trading.
1st box 800 to 1800 ,
2nd box 1800 to 4000 and now
3rd box 4000 to 8000.
Every time there is a big fundamental shift both in financial and physical demand and supply.
Now the CPO is trading in 3rd box which signify the 3rd fundamental shift in this sector.
But the stock price of plantation had not reflected.
He said old economoy rerating is always slow unlike new economy.
What fundamental shift resulted in CPO broke into 3rd box.
He said its a long story. Next time then say.
He said its very difficult to find a stock to all in. And he already found it.
Posted by OneOracle > 1 week ago | Report Abuse
From 1980 to 2007 (30yrs), Palm oil support is around 850 . Resistance is 1800.
Why suddenly after 2008 it broke the resistance of 1800 and went up to 4000 resistance ?
There after from 2008 to 2020(12 yrs) . 1800 to 4000 is the box for palm oil.
Beginning 2021,it broke 4000 and went u p to 8000.
Is it because of demand and supply of palm oil? May be.
But the primary reason is QE .
2008 QE. Palm oil broke 1800 resistance. Then palm oil start trading between 2k to 4k for 12 yrs.
2021 QE Palm oil broke 4000 resistance. Then palm oil start trading between 4k to 8k for the next 12 yrs ?
There is a price for QE. PAlm oil always double when there is massive QE.
The valuation of Palm oil company will only start reflecting in 1 to 2 yrs.
The valuation of Palm oil company shld double or triple since CPO range is lifted from 2 to 4 to 4 to 8.
2022-08-01 15:39 | Report Abuse
Never mind no one will believe what i post. But i believe in the retired sifu.
2022-08-01 15:34 | Report Abuse
From 1980 to 2007 (30yrs), Palm oil support is around 850 . Resistance is 1800.
Why suddenly after 2008 it broke the resistance of 1800 and went up to 4000 resistance ?
There after from 2008 to 2020(12 yrs) . 1800 to 4000 is the box for palm oil.
Beginning 2021,it broke 4000 and went u p to 8000.
Is it because of demand and supply of palm oil? May be.
But the primary reason is QE .
2008 QE. Palm oil broke 1800 resistance. Then palm oil start trading between 2k to 4k for 12 yrs.
2021 QE Palm oil broke 4000 resistance. Then palm oil start trading between 4k to 8k for the next 12 yrs ?
There is a price for QE. PAlm oil always double when there is massive QE.
The valuation of Palm oil company will only start reflecting in 1 to 2 yrs.
The valuation of Palm oil company shld double or triple since CPO range is lifted from 2 to 4 to 4 to 8.
2022-08-01 10:09 | Report Abuse
My friend told me a retired sifu already all in tsh. He told me whenever that sifu all in a stock, wont go wrong. So i also bought.
Stock: [TSH]: TSH RESOURCES BHD
2022-08-24 09:24 | Report Abuse
USDA Begins Accepting Applications for $100 Million in Biofuel Infrastructure Grants
Funding Will Increase Availability of Clean Fuels Across the Nation
Release & Contact Info
Press Release
Release No. 0184.22
Contact: USDA Press
Email: press@usda.gov
WASHINGTON, Aug. 23, 2022 – U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Secretary Tom Vilsack today announced that USDA is accepting applications for $100 million in grants to increase the sale and use of biofuels derived from U.S. agricultural products.
USDA is making the funding available through the Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program (HBIIP). This program seeks to market higher blends of ethanol and biodiesel by sharing the costs to build and retrofit biofuel-related infrastructure such as pumps, dispensers and storage tanks.
“The Biden-Harris Administration recognizes that rural America is the key to reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and giving Americans cleaner, more affordable options at the pump,” Vilsack said. “Biofuels are homegrown fuels. Expanding the availability of higher-blend fuels is a win for American farmers, the rural economy and hardworking Americans who pay the price here at home when we depend on volatile fuel sources overseas.”
This additional funding follows an April investment of $5.6 million through HBIIP that is expected to increase the availability of biofuels by 59.5 million gallons per year in California, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, New York and South Dakota.
In June, USDA also announced that it had provided $700 million in relief funding to more than 100 biofuel producers in 25 states who experienced market losses due to the pandemic.
These investments reflect the goals of President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which addresses immediate economic needs and includes the largest ever federal investment in clean energy for the future. The law includes another $500 million aimed at increasing the sale and use of agricultural commodity-based fuels. This funding will allow USDA to provide additional grants for infrastructure improvements related to blending, storing, supplying and distributing biofuels.
Gas prices continue to fall, at the fastest pace in over a decade. Biofuels are an important part of the Biden-Harris Administration’s commitment to lowering gas prices for the American people.
Background
Under HBIIP, USDA provides grants to transportation fueling and distribution facilities. These grants lower the out-of-pocket costs for businesses to install and upgrade infrastructure and related equipment.
The $100 million available now will support a variety of fueling operations, including filling stations, convenience stores and larger retail stores that also sell fuel. The funds will also support fleet facilities including rail and marine, and fuel distribution facilities, such as fuel terminal operations, midstream operations, distribution facilities as well as home heating oil distribution centers.
The grants will cover up to 50% of total eligible project costs – but not more than $5 million – to help owners of transportation fueling and fuel distribution facilities convert to higher blends of ethanol and biodiesel. These higher-blend fuels must be greater than 10% for ethanol and greater than 5% for biodiesel.