@johnzhang. Thanks for sharing the term

@theContrarion

Regarding the RM460MM , my view was that this amount of money is not keep aside for dividend payment.
Is a probation if Generali exercise the Put Option by or before 15th Nov 2020 ( if I remember the date correctly ). The amount adjusted every quarter during the QR to reflect the latest calculation as per the deed.
After the Put option lapse , only MPHBCAP can utilize the cash

@TheContrarian

I'm using the privatization term to reflect the action where some company using the internal cash to buy over the remaining of the share while still keeping afloat. ( as per the announcement last Friday)

Do you have any idea of the term use for this action.

My advice. Don't pay too much attention on the short term fluctuation of the stock price. Vote for the resolution during EGM. Attend virtual AGM on 30th June. Then celebrate in Q3

If scenario 1 and 2 happen , stock price will boost beyond 2.
If scenario 3 happen , stock price will stay at current level

I think scenario 1 and 2 higher probability to happen than scenario 3.

Scenario 3

Minimum dividend pay. Keep all cash for acquisition or working capital. Unlock the value of the asset

Scenario 2

Pay RM1 dividend. Keep remaining RM1 per share as working capital or acquisition of property development company to unlock the value of the asset

1. Privatization but remain listing

Majorshareholder with 36.6% holding ( based on JoeZhang's data ) will offer RM3 per share ( against NA of 2.82 ) to remaining shareholders. If all shareholders taking the offer , will be RM1.35B
Shareholders has the option to cash out or holding the stock.
MPHBCAP will merge or JV with property development company to unlock the value of the asset. New shares will be issue through private placement

Base on above assumption. 3 possible scenarios

1. Retain earning after disposal of insurance arm = RM1,034,000,000. Which means max dividend per share the company can out at 1.40 per share

2. Cash in hand and high liquid asset at RM1.4B

3. MPHBCAP has no expertise in property development. The company need to JV with other company to unlock the value of the asset. MPHBCAP will contribute land instead of cash to the JV

Assumption from observation of MPHBCAP for past few years and information available publicly

My thought of scenarios how the company will utilize the fund

I believe once completed the disposal , the situation will get firmer , analysts will back in coverage and the stock price will boost

As of now , most important is to get EGM going and support the resolution and get the disposal of remaining 51% of MP insurance successful executed and classify as property sector.
Next only deal with the money

Here is my thought about MPHBCAP

I have not being paying much attention on MPHBCAP since last June as I have set my TP at 2.50. I continue to accumulate as usual. My focus was on BPlant until recently , was quite fortunate to sell all close to the peak and switched over to MPHBCAP and boost my holding beyond 0.1% of outstanding shares

Margin call like last march 2020 will be the best timing for me. Will pump in fresh fund for 1 month investment period. Picked up stocks..sold and returned the fund back to the account. Profit will reinvest.

Invest wisely , don't let your emotion drive your decision. Don't panic , execute rational decision.

@johnzhang. Yes. Always an opportunity to pick up stocks during market with negative sentiment when investors panic selling. Picked up few counters yesterday and this morning for quick profit.

Stay cool. Don't let your emotion drive your decision.

Buyer sideline and observe. If selldown volume for few days very thin , might accumulate again to next level. Hopefully my perception correct. Let's monitor.

@Goh123. I treat the low volume as a good sign. Flush out the weak holder.

@Goh123. Q1 , plantation stocks net profit not so good due to lower output.. For Q2 , price and output increases as compare to Q1. Net profit should be record high.
Is good sign if CPO price at historical high but stock price lagging behind. Means that it yet to reflect in the stock price.

Sharing of my current investment strategy. I hold plantation stock as well in my portfolio which I accumulated around March to July 2020 time frame which currently at around 2x of the investment value. I'm expecting plantation stock I hold to announce record breaking quarterly net profit and dividend in August during QR. Hopefully by then the stock price soar and will switch the fund over to MPHBCAP if still stay around 1.50 to 1.60 while pending BNM approval.

Everyone has different investment strategy to execute.
I bought most of my MPHBCAP around 80+ sen to max 1.10.
Last week bought at 1.48.
Now holding close to 300,000 shares.
Plan to dispose after approval granted by BNM and divest to few other stocks.

MPHBCAP can be consider as event driven stock. Since listing , investors holding tight with the stock pending for the event to materialised. Along the way , some investors sold their holding due to the disappointment for uncertainty of the event to materialised.
As of current status , the event ( disposal of insurance business ) expected to complete in the near future. Within 2 to 6 months pending BNM approval. My view was that once approval granted , this stock will be under the spotlight of the speculators and volatility will increase.
So , holding tight for next few months while pending approval. Once approval granted , time to consider to reduce holding if price go beyond 2.50.

@johnzhang yes , indeed. With our current political climate , very uncertain to number forecasting industry. The best for them is to distribute the cash as dividend whenever they can.
Holding the assets in MPHBCAP for SU will be more secure.

If my memory serve me well , the holding in U Mobile was through the option granted by TSVT when Magnum became the guarantor to TSVT bank loan when purchased U Mobile shares from Korea operator when they decided to exit the market.

Regarding privatisation post MPIB. The possibility of corporate exercise of tking MPHBCAP private highly possible as SU might not need the cash from MPHBCAP as if U Mobile IPO , Magnum through the 8% holding , will able to generate about RM800MM if disposal away U Mobile shares. If the money pay as dividend , SU will receive few hundred million RM

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/newsbreak-u-mobile-appoints-cimb-ipo-adviser-targets-rm10-bil-rm11-bil-valuation

* typo. Should be 12th March 2020 to 10th June 2020

@joezhang. Thank you very much for the sharing. I totally agree with your analysis.

1. The stock is closely held.

I track the transaction volume since day 1.

Some key indicators to look into

5 years - total of 35.07% outstanding shares change hand or average 207,700 shares per day. Which was very low as compare to other stocks

During the sell down period in March 2020 .
Only 1.7% of outstanding shares transacted at price below 90 sen from 12th March to 10th June 2021

During recent upside from 10th June 2021 to 1st July 2021 , only 5.22% outstanding shares transacted.

From 29th June 2021 to 1st July 2021 , average shares transacted per day below 300,000. Good sign of consolidation and preparing for next upside once news of BNM approval in speculation.

MPHBCAP shares is tightly held by those with strong holding power and for long term investment.

My view about MPHBCAP

We are close to the final stage of harvesting our investment in MPHBCAP. Should hold tight with our stock in hand

Once approval granted by BNM ( which I believe the probability of approval will be high ) , analysts will initiate coverage and market speculation will kick in. Stock price will rise and volatility will increases.

I will look at selling possibility only above RM2.50 base on the facts that

1. If special dividend declare , it will be RM1 ( need to confirm the retain earning once the deal close ) The stock price will soar to around RM3

2. If taking private at RM3 , stock price will soar to RN2.80 as the approval process will take 6 months to a year to complete until cash in hand. If has better investment opportunity , will exit at RM2.80.

In summary , will hold on until RM2.50. Might accumulate more at 1.50 depending on progress , disposal of other stocks and dividend received.

Just saw the link above. All info in the link.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/frances-axa-sell-malaysia-insurance-businesses-generali

This was the moment we have been waiting for since 2015. Will hold on tight with my holding. Will only consider beyond 2.50 as of now.

Will pen more information after tomorrow as will be busy tomorrow.

I think the approval might involve Affin AXA Insurance holding where Generali plan to buy from AXA.

The combination of Generali MPIB + AXA will be slightly below 70% for the combine company which meet BNM requirement.

Will pen more details later

@johnzhang

Regarding the hostile take over , my thought.

As majorshareholder SU holding around 40% of the share , any party with interest to take control of the company will not be easy without negotiation with SU to buy over his stake.

My view if interested party emerge.

1. Will negotiate to buy over SU 40% holding
2. While in negotiation , will accumulate MPHBCAP stock in open market as much as possible below the negotiation price.

With MPHBCAP value of cash + asset roughly at RM6 to 7 per share , I think SU will ask for at least 4 to 5 per share in cash. This should be about 1B to 1.5B in cash. I'm assuming 4 to 5 base on the facts that real estate are not liquid , SU willing to take a discount for immediate cash out of the investment.

For the interested party , if only forge out RM1B to RM1.5B to get the landbank , worth the investment at about 50% to the market value of RM2B to RM3B.

Base on above , my view was

1. The final price of 4 to 5 will depends how much share the interested party absorb from the open market below negotiation price. The higher the % , the will accept higher price from SU ( with same amount of cash allocated for the acquisition )
2. If couldn't strike a deal , exit strategy by selling the accumulated stock in the open market , still can make a profit.

Therefore , while holding for good news from #1 above and cautious about # 2 , will hold on and decide once price hit 2.50. If no news , will consider selling in batches.

Above just my view for sharing.

@johnzhang pls count me in if you start a motion against privatization at unreasonable price. My holding not so much but if more minority support the motion , will be better. My view was that this quite unlikely to happen.

MPHBCAP also own 60+ acres of land at Teluk Tempoyak , Penang. Beside Mah Sing Southbay project adjacent to Penang 2nd bridge.
If majorshareholder can grab all the assets and return cash to minor shareholder , a big win to him.

@Johnzhang. Good question. If majorshareholder want to get the company private , RM3 will have high probability of success.

Just my view. Nothing for sure. Always hope for the best.

I think this stock is up for speculation now. If the disposal happen as per plan , MOHBCAP cash flow in hand will be more than 1B.
Will majorshareholder offer capital repayment to take the company private ? The cash enough to pay minorshareholder RM3 a share and majorshareholder can take all the lands etc which worth much more than RM3 per share ?

I think might be related to the announcement of remaining 51% insurance holding disposal to Generali. Last quarter , Generali acquired insurance business in Greece. May be this quarter will focus on MPHBCAP insurance business.
Nothing for sure. Hope for the best.

Limit up now at 1.40

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2020/10/29/kedah-will-turn-to-private-sector-if-govt-loan-for-kulim-airport-falls-through-says-mb/

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2019/05/22/small-padi-town-earmarked-for-new-kulim-airport/

Bustead Plantation valuable land potential for property development ( refer to Annual Report property list and Quarterly Report )

1. Semenyih. Pending disposal. Value at RM195MM
2. Balance of Malakoff Estate land . Use 2018 disposal price as reference. Value at RM500MM

For longer term. If materialise

Kulim International Airport. Earmark at Sidam Kiri. BPlant has few estates at surrounding area.

Young1 I not sure the reason. I use whatever available data to do the projection.

I accumulated about 400,000 shares so far from 24 sen to 50 sen. Looking forward for Q3 quarterly release.

With the transformation program kick in couple with no new plantation acquisition , base on the study from the financial statement and output figure , I'm projecting BPlant Q3 profit to be around 40MM to 50MM with 1 sen dividend declare.
If profit as per expected during Q3 quarterly release expected by 3rd to 4th week of Nov , confident level on BPlant will restall.