@Zhuge,

Gasoline should be the most abundantly available in the futures for hedging far into the future and diesel & jet fuel had been having strong crack even under covid environment (less concerned) unlike gasoline demand affected by lockdown.

Thats why we can see in 2020 and 2021, HY still can deliver good earnings.

Further we can see in Q1 22 results the hedging losses under COHR is very low (even positive, as the futures maturing in 24 months could be well below 12.7).

@Zhuge,

Among the two possibility below derived by sslee, only gasoline fits the hedged crack value as found in 2021 annual report page 130 where the max margin was around 12 USD/brl.

The lowest crack spread closing on 30 June 2022 is only for gasoline around 31USD/brl (others like Diesel & Jet Fuel is way higher).
Only using the lowest mark to market crack spread end of June 22, you can derived the low value hedged crack spread as per annual report of about 12 USD/brl.

Using gasoline the hedged barrels is 18 millions as derived by sslee below.


Since we have passed 2 qtrs in 2022, the average crack spread hedged on the latest notional amount of USD 226 million is much higher than what was reported at end of 2021 (on annual report). It has been displaced by maturing hedged contract of gasoline at 0.75 million barrels/month x 6 = 4.5 million, with fresh ones as per market crack spread in future for gasoline in Q1 and Q2.


Posted by Sslee > Sep 2, 2022 8:59 AM | Report Abuse

Dear probability,
The outstanding Refining margin swap contract as on 30/06/2022
Notional amount: USD 226,945,000
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM 1,751,332,000
Hence unrealized loss RM (1,751,332,000-261,065,000) = RM 1,490,267,000

On 30/06/2022:
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
Diesel crack spread: USD 56.125
Average of the two USD (31.578+56.125)/2= USD43.85
USD to MYR: 4.397

V: Volume of outstanding refining margin swap contract (Barrels)
A: Average outstanding margin per barrel hedged (USD)

Equation:
from notional amount: V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
from unrealized loss: V x (43.85 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (43.85 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
9,951,538,250= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 9,951,538,250/565,873,133
A= 17.586
V=226,945,000/17.586
V=12,904,746

If you use only Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.58
Equation:
V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
V x (31.58 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (31.58 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
7,166,923,100= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 7,166,923,100/565,873,133
A= 12.665
V=226,945,000/12.665
V= 17,918,718



Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Sep 5, 2022 10:57 AM | Report Abuse

Post by probability
The reason why HY shows large unrealized loss on Cost of hedging reserve (COHR) is because it has around 18 million barrels of refined products, e.g Gasoline crack spread that is hedged for next 24 months at 12.7 USD/brl margin.


This is the Refining Margin Swap Contract (RMSC) shown as USD 227 million (USD 12.7 crack x 18 million barrels hedged).
-------------------
@probability,
I have 2 questions on your posting here.
1.) 18 million of refined products hedged at USD12.70/brl.
Is it all gasoline only ? No diesel and jet fuel or mixture.

2.) 18 million of refined products hedged at USD12.70/brl.
Is this hedging for 1 year or 2 years ?

Please advise.

all depends on availability of counter party to get into the hedging deals

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > Sep 5, 2022 11:38 AM | Report Abuse

@probability, do hengyuan secured big forward contract when crack spread at around USD 20-30?

If they do big hedging, the results should be very good in next 1 year...

sslee, my thoughts are each hedged barrels are marked to market based on futures prices corresponding to their respective maturity date, at the end of the reporting period.

we can assume the 'A' we had used here as 'reflective' of their composite effects

If you use only Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.58
Equation:
V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
V x (31.58 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

Posted by Sslee > Sep 5, 2022 11:31 AM | Report Abuse

If i will to attend the next HRC AGM, I will prepare the following questions on refining margin swap contract.
Refer refining margin swap contracts.
Is contact notional amt is sum of contracts (volume in barrel X hedged refining margin)?
What is refining margin swap contracts assets and liabilities and how it is computed?

If they had hedged large portion of Diesel / Jet fuel, the COHR would have easily shown huge loss like we saw at end of Q2 22', by end of Q1 22 itself.

Posted by probability > Sep 5, 2022 11:24 AM | Report Abuse X

@Zhuge,

Gasoline should be the most abundantly available in the futures for hedging far into the future and diesel & jet fuel had been having strong crack even under covid environment (less concerned) unlike gasoline demand affected by lockdown.

Thats why we can see in 2020 and 2021, HY still can deliver good earnings.

Further we can see in Q1 22 results the hedging losses under COHR is very low (even positive, as the futures maturing in 24 months could be well below 12.7).

@Zhuge,

prove on the effects of hedging when crack spread drop below hedging level for balance hedged contract is here

Posted by Sslee > Sep 3, 2022 6:17 PM | Report Abuse

If you look into HRC quarterly report.
On 31/12/19. NAPS is RM 6.7045.
Q1 end 31/03/20 EPS negative 41.37 cents but NAPS is now RM 7.4418

Posted by Sslee > Sep 3, 2022 6:32 PM | Report Abuse

You can check what is the mogas92 crack spread on 31/03/2020.
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

@Zhuge,

Gasoline should be the most abundantly available in the futures for hedging far into the future and diesel & jet fuel had been having strong crack even under covid environment (less concerned) unlike gasoline demand affected by lockdown.

Thats why we can see in 2020 and 2021, HY still can deliver good earnings.

Further we can see in Q1 22 results the hedging losses under COHR is very low (even positive, as the futures maturing in 24 months could be well below 12.7).

@Zhuge,

Among the two possibility below derived by sslee, only gasoline fits the hedged crack value as found in 2021 annual report page 130 where the max margin was around 12 USD/brl.

The lowest crack spread closing on 30 June 2022 is only for gasoline around 31USD/brl (others like Diesel & Jet Fuel is way higher).
Only using the lowest mark to market crack spread end of June 22, you can derived the low value hedged crack spread as per annual report of about 12 USD/brl.

Using gasoline the hedged barrels is 18 millions as derived by sslee below.


Since we have passed 2 qtrs in 2022, the average crack spread hedged on the latest notional amount of USD 226 million is much higher than what was reported at end of 2021 (on annual report). It has been displaced by maturing hedged contract of gasoline at 0.75 million barrels/month x 6 = 4.5 million, with fresh ones as per market crack spread in future for gasoline in Q1 and Q2.


Posted by Sslee > Sep 2, 2022 8:59 AM | Report Abuse

Dear probability,
The outstanding Refining margin swap contract as on 30/06/2022
Notional amount: USD 226,945,000
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM 1,751,332,000
Hence unrealized loss RM (1,751,332,000-261,065,000) = RM 1,490,267,000

On 30/06/2022:
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
Diesel crack spread: USD 56.125
Average of the two USD (31.578+56.125)/2= USD43.85
USD to MYR: 4.397

V: Volume of outstanding refining margin swap contract (Barrels)
A: Average outstanding margin per barrel hedged (USD)

Equation:
from notional amount: V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
from unrealized loss: V x (43.85 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (43.85 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
9,951,538,250= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 9,951,538,250/565,873,133
A= 17.586
V=226,945,000/17.586
V=12,904,746

If you use only Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.58
Equation:
V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
V x (31.58 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (31.58 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
7,166,923,100= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 7,166,923,100/565,873,133
A= 12.665
V=226,945,000/12.665
V= 17,918,718



Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Sep 5, 2022 10:57 AM | Report Abuse

Post by probability
The reason why HY shows large unrealized loss on Cost of hedging reserve (COHR) is because it has around 18 million barrels of refined products, e.g Gasoline crack spread that is hedged for next 24 months at 12.7 USD/brl margin.


This is the Refining Margin Swap Contract (RMSC) shown as USD 227 million (USD 12.7 crack x 18 million barrels hedged).
-------------------
@probability,
I have 2 questions on your posting here.
1.) 18 million of refined products hedged at USD12.70/brl.
Is it all gasoline only ? No diesel and jet fuel or mixture.

2.) 18 million of refined products hedged at USD12.70/brl.
Is this hedging for 1 year or 2 years ?

Please advise.

myongcc5, of different time zone, yup whatever need to be said - done

market is voting a machine...and it has time on its side

Posted by myongcc5 > Sep 5, 2022 11:01 AM | Report Abuse

Professor Prob, guess u r exhausted due to overworked. Thanks

HY refinery margin update - 2/09/22 (DIESEL CRACK BLASTED ABOVE 50$/brl!)
...........

Diesel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

Jet Fuel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

From above:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 50.36/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 38.40/bb
3. Gasoline Mogas 95 at 35% yield, cracks USD (4.07 + 3.71) / bbl
4. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7.77/bbl

Gross refining margin:

= (0.46 x 50.4 ) + (0.07 x 38.40) + (0.35 x 7.77)+ (0.12 x 7.77)
= 23.18 + 2.70 + 2.72 + 0.93
= US $ 29.5 / brl

Gross Profit :

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $29.5/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 1.404 Billion MYR
...................


Gross refining margin (Gasoline hedged at 12.7 USD/brl):

= (0.46 x 50.4 ) + (0.07 x 38.40) + (0.35 x 12.7)+ (0.12 x 7.77)
= 23.18 + 2.70 + 4.44 + 0.93
= US $ 31.2 / brl

Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $31.2/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 1.485 Billion MYR
...................

there are two type of hedging losses, the one on page 8 is already accounted on PAT

the one in the box under Other comprehensive income, are treated under IFRS9

different product has different selling price on the market based on demand

their yields are different

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2022-09-02-story-h1627801128-HENGYUAN_How_to_calculate_its_refinery_margin_Why_share_price_hesitatin.jsp

Posted by King_trader_shadow > Sep 5, 2022 2:42 AM | Report Abuse

Honestly speaking, i am clueless. How could the Gasoline margin be low and the rest of Diesel and Jet fuel spike up where as they are distilling heated crude oil in the refinery and produces equally the diesel oil--> Jet oil --> lastly the gasoline oil.

Basically, it is just a process going through the funnel and output it accordingly. How could the margin gasoline or the crack spread gasoline go lower?

the crack - margin itself

this is because european refiners diesel yield is very low with high fuel oil yield

these refiners will stop refining if their margins are too low

Posted by King_trader_shadow > Sep 5, 2022 2:34 AM | Report Abuse

When you mentioned gasoline margin stays low means the price they purchased the crude oil or the price of the crack spread that they are selling?

1. Diesel (or Gasoil): https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

2. Jet fuel (or Kerosene): https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

3. Gasoline:

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

see the Cut volume, % on the first line of the pdf

Posted by probability > Aug 29, 2022 11:08 PM | Report Abuse X

@sslee, ok got it. Its exactly matching the yield they mentioned on the Q&A...thanks

https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/-/media/Global/Files/crude-oils/Tapis/Crude_Oil_Tapis_assay_pdf_new.pdf


Posted by ValueInvestor888 > Sep 4, 2022 6:19 PM | Report Abuse

Dear probability,

Thank you for your research on Hengyuan and its hedging...

Do you think Petron will benefit from high diesel spread? How many % of diesel petron is producing? Thanks

@MM, i bet if you can squeeze your brain cells a bit after a strong cup of coffee and spend 10 minutes to understand the below concept, you will be quite confident HY makes money (secures) through hedging

try taking this challenge for you:

Extract from below article:
www.cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/introduction-to-crack-spreads.html

Fixing Refiner Margins Through a Simple 1:1 Crack Spread

In January, a refiner reviews his crude oil acquisition strategy and his potential gasoline margins for the spring. He sees that gasoline prices are strong, and plans a two-month crude-to-gasoline spread strategy that will allow him to lock in his margins. Similarly, a professional trader can analyze the technical charts and decide to “sell” the crack spread as a directional play, if the trader takes a view that current crack spread levels are relatively high, and will probably decline in the future.

In January, the spread between April crude oil futures ($50.00 per barrel) and May RBOB gasoline futures ($1.60 per gallon or $67.20 per barrel) presents what the refiner believes to be a favorable 1:1 crack spread of $17.20 per barrel. Typically, refiners purchase crude oil for processing in a particular month, and sell the refined products one month later.

The refiner decides to “sell” the crack spread by selling RBOB gasoline futures, and buying crude oil futures, thereby locking in the $17.20 per barrel crack spread value. He executes this by selling May RBOB gasoline futures at $1.60 per gallon (or $67.20 per barrel), and buying April crude oil futures at $50.00 per barrel.

Two months later, in March, the refiner purchases the crude oil at $60.00 per barrel in the cash market for refining into products. At the same time, he also sells gasoline from his existing stock in the cash market for $1.75 per gallon, or $73.50 per barrel. His crack spread value in the cash market has declined since January, and is now $13.50 per barrel ($73.50 per barrel gasoline less $60.00 per barrel for crude oil).

Since the futures market reflects the cash market, April crude oil futures are also selling at $60.00 per barrel in March — $10 more than when he purchased them. May RBOB gasoline futures are also trading higher at $1.75 per gallon ($73.50 per barrel). To complete the crack spread transaction, the refiner buys back the crack spread by first repurchasing the gasoline futures he sold in January, and he also sells back the crude oil futures. The refiner locks in a $3.70 per barrel profit on this crack spread futures trade.

The refiner has successfully locked in a crack spread of $17.20 (the futures gain of $3.70 is added to the cash market cracking margin of $13.50). Had the refiner been un-hedged, his cracking margin would have been limited to the $13.50 gain he had in the cash market. Instead, combined with the futures gain, his final net cracking margin with the hedge is $17.20 — the favorable margin he originally sought in January.

Just want to inform all readers,

For HY refinery its actually good if the gasoline margin stays low, as the lower it is the higher the Diesel & Jet fuel crack will go since refinery try to compensate their loss in gasoline with higher margins on other refined products.

Further, this will discourage simple refiners who produce mainly gasoline and fuel oil from increasing output and even shutting down their operation - reducing further diesel availability on the market.

HY which had hedged significant amount of gasoline (at about 20% of their sales volume - basically all their gasoline yield ) will be the greatest beneficiary among all regional refineries.

All the information are there, research carefully to gain an edge to make fantastic investment decision of a lifetime.
Good luck..

Just want to inform all readers,

For HY refinery its actually good if the gasoline margin stays low, as the lower it is the higher the Diesel & Jet fuel crack will go since refinery try to compensate their loss in gasoline with higher margins on other refined products.

Further, this will discourage simple refiners who produce mainly gasoline and fuel oil from increasing output and even shutting down their operation - reducing further diesel availability on the market.

HY which had hedged significant amount of gasoline (at about 20% of their sales volume - basically all their gasoline yield ) will be the greatest beneficiary among all regional refineries.

All the information are there, research carefully to gain an edge to make fantastic investment decision of a lifetime.
Good luck..

Just want to inform all readers,

For HY refinery its actually good if the gasoline margin stays low, as the lower it is the higher the Diesel & Jet fuel crack will go since refinery try to compensate their loss in gasoline with higher margins on other refined products.

Further, this will discourage simple refiners who produce mainly gasoline and fuel oil from increasing output and even shutting down their operation - reducing further diesel availability on the market.

HY which had hedged significant amount of gasoline (at about 20% of their sales volume - basically all their gasoline yield ) will be the greatest beneficiary among all regional refineries.

All the information are there, research carefully to gain an edge to make fantastic investment decision of a lifetime.
Good luck..

Just want to inform all readers,

For HY refinery its actually good if the gasoline margin stays low, as the lower it is the higher the Diesel & Jet fuel crack will go since refinery try to compensate their loss in gasoline with higher margins on other refined products.

Further, this will discourage simple refiners who produce mainly gasoline and fuel oil from increasing output and even shutting down their operation - reducing further diesel availability on the market.

HY which had hedged significant amount of gasoline (at about 20% of their sales volume - basically all their gasoline yield ) will be the greatest beneficiary among all regional refineries.

All the information are there, research carefully to gain an edge to make fantastic investment decision of a lifetime.
Good luck..

yes, as long as there is a counter party to provide the hedging contract like found on futures for commodity
Posted by Income > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

Yes. Betul MM.

If hedging doesn’t bring losses, then every company in Bursa please make hedging lah.

This simple common sense pun tak tahu kah?

@Ular, very smart leh...we are all predicting earnings & NTA, now he wants to have TP...

@ular, please elaborate how hedging can lead to loss? example with hedging contract and consequence please...

prove on the effects of hedging when crack spread drop below hedging level for balance hedged contract is here

Posted by Sslee > Sep 3, 2022 6:17 PM | Report Abuse

If you look into HRC quarterly report.
On 31/12/19. NAPS is RM 6.7045.
Q1 end 31/03/20 EPS negative 41.37 cents but NAPS is now RM 7.4418

Posted by Sslee > Sep 3, 2022 6:32 PM | Report Abuse

You can check what is the mogas92 crack spread on 31/03/2020.
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

dont wait till Q3 results is out.. NTA is more than 12 by then!

Posted by stockraider > 2 seconds ago | Report Abuse

I m trying to be positive but seeing such a huge losses of HY derivative, i see no hope loh!
But i faith in Petron loh!

HEDGING can never results with loss (this is a simple common sense that MIRACULOUSLY many in i3 STILL cannot understand)....

When its a loss, COHR only shows the 'greater opportunity lost' compared to smaller opportunity gained by hedging - by locking down the margin.

When its a gain, COHR only shows the 'benefit of opportunity locked' compared to if you had not locked the opportunity available earlier.

only reason HY had ever reported loss earlier is becoz they only hedge 20% of their sales volume and when they could not find opportunity to hedge at good cracks from futures

we actually want raider to lead the comrades...but unfortunately he is a broken soldier....extremely pessimistic and apprehensive lor! :(

no theory is perfect ..but its definitely better than speculating without any basis
investing is all about taking calculated risk

we have done the calculation, its up to you to take the risk
Posted by stockraider > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Thats why i say....u cannot inferred from SSLEE simply guessing by trying very to fit into the margin for gasoline loh!

Dynamic can or has change mah!
Like type of crude, processes of refinery and management intention to churn type of product mix etc loh!

Any misuse of assumption & data will derail this SSLEE very crude model mah!

The possibility of SSLEE model is highly inaccurate is possible mah!

Lu tau boh ??

@MM, if you say these last year on your pessimistic view on HY i can accept....but we have entered golden age for refinery...... the margins they are making are not peanuts.... ROI is less than half a year now for HY's mcap ...and refineries takes 5 years to build

@raider,
if you understood what has been presented, your last statement will be absurd.... in fact the whole aim is to tell what happens when crack spread of gasoline goes zero or negative where HY still makes money unlike those refinery that did not hedge!

@raider for you query above:
Among the two possibility below derived by sslee, only gasoline fits the hedged crack value as found in 2021 annual report page 130 where the max margin was around 12 USD/brl.

The lowest crack spread closing on 30 June 2022 is only for gasoline around 31USD/brl (others like Diesel & Jet Fuel is way higher).
Only using the lowest mark to market crack spread end of June 22, you can derived the low value hedged crack spread as per annual report of about 12 USD/brl.
Using gasoline the hedged barrels is 18 millions as derived by sslee.
As such, you need to be good in maths to understand how these are deduced.

Posted by Sslee > Sep 2, 2022 8:59 AM | Report Abuse

Dear probability,
The outstanding Refining margin swap contract as on 30/06/2022
Notional amount: USD 226,945,000
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM 1,751,332,000
Hence unrealized loss RM (1,751,332,000-261,065,000) = RM 1,490,267,000

On 30/06/2022:
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
Diesel crack spread: USD 56.125
Average of the two USD (31.578+56.125)/2= USD43.85
USD to MYR: 4.397

V: Volume of outstanding refining margin swap contract (Barrels)
A: Average outstanding margin per barrel hedged (USD)

Equation:
from notional amount: V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
from unrealized loss: V x (43.85 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (43.85 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
9,951,538,250= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 9,951,538,250/565,873,133
A= 17.586
V=226,945,000/17.586
V=12,904,746

If you use only Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.58
Equation:
V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
V x (31.58 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (31.58 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
7,166,923,100= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 7,166,923,100/565,873,133
A= 12.665
V=226,945,000/12.665
V= 17,918,718

@raider for you query above:
Among the two possibility below derived by sslee, only gasoline fits the hedged crack value as found in 2021 annual report page 130 where the max margin was around 12 USD/brl.

The lowest crack spread closing on 30 June 2022 is only for gasoline around 31USD/brl (others like Diesel & Jet Fuel is way higher).
Only using the lowest mark to market crack spread end of June 22, you can derived the low value hedged crack spread as per annual report of about 12 USD/brl.
Using gasoline the hedged barrels is 18 millions as derived by sslee.
As such, you need to be good in maths to understand how these are deduced.

Posted by Sslee > Sep 2, 2022 8:59 AM | Report Abuse

Dear probability,
The outstanding Refining margin swap contract as on 30/06/2022
Notional amount: USD 226,945,000
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM 1,751,332,000
Hence unrealized loss RM (1,751,332,000-261,065,000) = RM 1,490,267,000

On 30/06/2022:
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
Diesel crack spread: USD 56.125
Average of the two USD (31.578+56.125)/2= USD43.85
USD to MYR: 4.397

V: Volume of outstanding refining margin swap contract (Barrels)
A: Average outstanding margin per barrel hedged (USD)

Equation:
from notional amount: V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
from unrealized loss: V x (43.85 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (43.85 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
9,951,538,250= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 9,951,538,250/565,873,133
A= 17.586
V=226,945,000/17.586
V=12,904,746

If you use only Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.58
Equation:
V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
V x (31.58 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (31.58 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
7,166,923,100= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 7,166,923,100/565,873,133
A= 12.665
V=226,945,000/12.665
V= 17,918,718

@raider for you query above:
Among the two possibility below derived by sslee, only gasoline fits the hedged crack value as found in 2021 annual report page 130 where the max margin was around 12 USD/brl.

The lowest crack spread closing on 30 June 2022 is only for gasoline around 31USD/brl (others like Diesel & Jet Fuel is way higher).
Only using the lowest mark to market crack spread end of June 22, you can derived the low value hedged crack spread as per annual report of about 12 USD/brl.
Using gasoline the hedged barrels is 18 millions as derived by sslee.
As such, you need to be good in maths to understand how these are deduced.

Posted by Sslee > Sep 2, 2022 8:59 AM | Report Abuse

Dear probability,
The outstanding Refining margin swap contract as on 30/06/2022
Notional amount: USD 226,945,000
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM 1,751,332,000
Hence unrealized loss RM (1,751,332,000-261,065,000) = RM 1,490,267,000

On 30/06/2022:
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
Diesel crack spread: USD 56.125
Average of the two USD (31.578+56.125)/2= USD43.85
USD to MYR: 4.397

V: Volume of outstanding refining margin swap contract (Barrels)
A: Average outstanding margin per barrel hedged (USD)

Equation:
from notional amount: V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
from unrealized loss: V x (43.85 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (43.85 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
9,951,538,250= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 9,951,538,250/565,873,133
A= 17.586
V=226,945,000/17.586
V=12,904,746

If you use only Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.58
Equation:
V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
V x (31.58 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (31.58 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
7,166,923,100= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 7,166,923,100/565,873,133
A= 12.665
V=226,945,000/12.665
V= 17,918,718

The reason why HY shows large unrealized loss on Cost of hedging reserve (COHR) is because it has around 18 million barrels of refined products, e.g Gasoline crack spread that is hedged for next 24 months at 12.7 USD/brl margin.


This is the Refining Margin Swap Contract (RMSC) shown as USD 227 million (USD 12.7 crack x 18 million barrels hedged).

As per accounting rules, this hedged contract (RMSC) has to show the opportunity lost / gained presuming the current crack spread of these refined products at the end of reporting Q2 22' (30 June) persist indefinitely till all hedging contract matures (more than 24 months).

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR) , loss / gain: (A-M) x V

A = hedged crack spread value, 12.7 USD/brl
V = barrels volume of refined products hedged, 18 million
M = Market pricing of the hedged refined product at end of reporting period (mark to market)

Since at the end of June 22', the avg crack spread of the refined products, e.g gasoline at 31.6 USD/brl, the opportunity lost for the period of hedging is

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 31.6) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= - 338 million USD or MYR 1,490,267,000

The above is what reported as (Asset 261,065,000 - Liabilities 1,751,332,000)

The above after taxation is placed into 'Other comprehensive
(expense)/income' , reported as Cost of hedging reserve (net of tax).

...

Now lets see what happens, when Gasoline crack drops to its usual average of 5.7 USD/brl (currently its about 7.8 USD/brl)

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 5.7) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= 90 million USD or gain of MYR 395,000,000

When its a loss, COHR only shows the 'greater opportunity lost' compared to smaller opportunity gained by hedging - by locking down the margin.

When its a gain, COHR only shows the 'benefit of opportunity locked' compared to if you had not locked the opportunity available earlier.

well explained sslee, they are accounting the unrealized loss not only up till year end but the whole maturity period of the balance refining margin swap contract if i am not wrong (or at least for those that matures next 12 months as someone said earlier)

Posted by Sslee > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse

PSAi3alert,
For Q2 2022, the RM897.257M profits before tax already included the realised derivaties loss matured on April, May and June of RM 438,758,000.

For H1 2022, the RM 982,535,000 profit before tax already included the realised derivaties loss matured on Jan, Feb, March, April, May and June of RM 870,964,000.

Hence if HRC do not do the hedging the profit before tax should be RM 870,964,000 + RM 982,535,000.
Or profit before tax of about USD 20 per barrel.

That is what I say hedging is for during super good time the profit will be less and during bad time your loss will be less.

Since the unrealised derivaties is marked to market on 30/6/2022. Thus a very high unrealised loss because spread margin is almost at peak of USD 40+ on 30/6/2022.

If this peak spread margin presist till year end then H2 will have huge realised derivative loss but then again the physical business of buying crude, refining to finished product and sold the finished product will earned you super super fat refinimg margin of USD 40 per barrel.

You can expect about another 21 million barrel for H2.
So do the math.

u forgot how hurrcane harvey in US helped looks like

u forgot how hurrcane harvey in US helped looks like

Posted by stockraider > 3 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Raider asklah....how could embargo on Russia....help Hengyuan & Petron....to make more money leh ??

The impact is remote mah!

Also Msia is not exporting diesel & gasoline to Europe mah!

This probability very panlai spin mah!

ha ha even MM beginning to rationalize and realize...

great job MM!

Posted by MoneyMakers > 3 seconds ago | Report Abuse

S’raider u stuck high HY at what price during 2018 collapse (rm19-rm3)??

See u got crazy ptsd @ forever hate HY

they hedge about 18 million barrels for a period of 24 months, about 20% of their sales throughput. 80% is free to capture market margin. The Cost of hedging reserve indicates what will be the implication to this hedged 18 million barrels if the phenomenally high margin of gasoline at 32 USD/brl at end of June 22' persist indefinitely. Its mark to market hedging loss/gain. We can expect the figure to reverse, when gasoline reverts to normal level by end of Sept 22'. Currently Gasoline crack spread is below hedged margin of 12.7 USD/brl at 7.8 USD/brl.

Post removed.Why?

they hedge about 18 million barrels for a period of 24 months, about 20% of their sales throughput. 80% is free to capture market margin. The Cost of hedging reserve indicates what will be the implication to this hedged 18 million barrels if the phenomenally high margin of gasoline at 32 USD/brl at end of June 22' persist indefinitely. Its mark to market hedging loss/gain. We can expect the figure to reverse, when gasoline reverts to normal level by end of Sept 22'. Currently Gasoline crack spread is below hedged margin of 12.7 USD/brl at 7.8 USD/brl.

Post removed.Why?

prove on the effects of hedging when crack spread drop below hedging level for balance hedged contract is here

Posted by Sslee > Sep 3, 2022 6:17 PM | Report Abuse

If you look into HRC quarterly report.
On 31/12/19. NAPS is RM 6.7045.
Q1 end 31/03/20 EPS negative 41.37 cents but NAPS is now RM 7.4418

Posted by Sslee > Sep 3, 2022 6:32 PM | Report Abuse

You can check what is the mogas92 crack spread on 31/03/2020.

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

No going back to reliance on Russian gas from here

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62779909

This is no coincidence. Russia's state-controlled gas giant announced an indefinite extension to a three-day maintenance halt to flows of gas through the continent's key energy artery, hours after leading western finance ministers vowed to escalate sanctions on Russian oil.

Now lets see what happens, when Gasoline crack drops to its usual average of 5.7 USD/brl (currently its about 7.8 USD/brl)

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 5.7) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= 90 million USD or gain of MYR 395,000,000

When its a loss, COHR only shows the 'greater opportunity lost' compared to smaller opportunity gained by hedging - by locking down the margin.

When its a gain, COHR only shows the 'benefit of opportunity locked' compared to if you had not locked the opportunity available earlier.

As such, we can see why the above is not reported in P&L statement.


COHR gain of 395 million from loss of 1.1 billion will cause the NTA to jump by RM5 and if you add that to EPS of RM2, you get RM 7

that means by end of Q3, NTA is above RM12...

The reason why HY shows large unrealized loss on Cost of hedging reserve (COHR) is because it has around 18 million barrels of refined products, e.g Gasoline crack spread that is hedged for next 24 months at 12.7 USD/brl margin.


This is the Refining Margin Swap Contract (RMSC) shown as USD 227 million (USD 12.7 crack x 18 million barrels hedged).

As per accounting rules, this hedged contract (RMSC) has to show the opportunity lost / gained presuming the current crack spread of these refined products at the end of reporting Q2 22' (30 June) persist indefinitely till all hedging contract matures (more than 24 months).

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR) , loss / gain: (A-M) x V

A = hedged crack spread value, 12.7 USD/brl
V = barrels volume of refined products hedged, 18 million
M = Market pricing of the hedged refined product at end of reporting period (mark to market)

Since at the end of June 22', the avg crack spread of the refined products, e.g gasoline at 31.6 USD/brl, the opportunity lost for the period of hedging is

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 31.6) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= - 338 million USD or MYR 1,490,267,000

The above is what reported as (Asset 261,065,000 - Liabilities 1,751,332,000)

The above after taxation is placed into 'Other comprehensive
(expense)/income' , reported as Cost of hedging reserve (net of tax).

@Tehka, Monday the crack spread will explode further...

Russia delays reopening of Nord Stream in blow to gas-starved Europe

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-says-nord-stream-gas-supplies-still-risk-stoking-european-fears-2022-09-02/

@MM, did you have a look at what sslee shared above?

you can find the chart for Mogas92 here to trace its value on 30/3/2020

www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/