LOL!

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Sep 3, 2022 12:22 AM | Report Abuse

qqq3 fxxk you.
Another shameless liar.
Continue to tell lies after lies.
No wonder you are beaten by a gang in Bangsar because of your bad mouth.
You are cursed and the gang should beat you to death.
You are an useless dead wood in this world.
No value at all.

well said Zhuge..

this people like raider is the root cause many valuable people like Rabbit2 dont come to i3 often

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Sep 3, 2022 12:13 AM | Report Abuse

Rabbit2 is a qualified accountant.
He has the experience to audit a refinery company.
He knows hedging rules well.
Unlike an office boy, continue to tell lies here.
This office boy lost a lot of money on Hengyuan in 2017 until he hid himself at Pudu market.
Bullshit and twist the story to suit him.
Real shameless.

Just saw your reply Rabbit2, you are the man..amazing!

THANK YOU SO MUCH...

Posted by Rabbit2 > Sep 2, 2022 10:47 PM | Report Abuse

@Probability, I could be wrong as I'm still learning

no need cheap oil, as long refinery shortage, operating refinery can hike up margin..

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

Post removed.Why?

no worries, we share our opinions...thats the purpose of i3...keep learning and have an open mind

yes tehka, and at current zero gasoline crack spread assuming the others Diesel & Jet Fuel crack is maintained, Q4 EPS will be 2.84....

Estimation of Q2 gross profit earlier:

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2022-06-11-story-h1624320379-HENGYUAN_derivatives_loss_on_Q1_22_completely_clarification.jsp

@goh, not really promoting...studying only.... at this cheap share price and dividend given by management - you still think 'promotion'...sad :(

The above shows even with zero crack spread of gasoline, HY will deliver EPS above RM for Q3 and Q4 with current margin of Diesel & Jet Fuel....

Hope i3 investors Crack their head on the above over the weekend! Enjoy....

HENGYUAN - How to calculate its refinery margin? & Why share price hesitating to move up despite Q2 EPS of RM 2.2?

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2022-09-02-story-h1627801128-HENGYUAN_How_to_calculate_its_refinery_margin_Why_share_price_hesitatin.jsp

HENGYUAN - How to calculate its refinery margin? & Why share price hesitating to move up despite Q2 EPS of RM 2.2?

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2022-09-02-story-h1627801128-HENGYUAN_How_to_calculate_its_refinery_margin_Why_share_price_hesitatin.jsp

@Rabbit2 & @Sslee, hope you dont me quoting your salient comments here in HY forum earlier.

The more investor learn about hedging the better their appreciation of HY & PetronM.

Remember however that the above is assuming ZERO crack of gasoline for July & Aug which had passed, with only another month left for Q3 results to be secured. So it can't be far out from above.

It would be reflective of Q4 you can say at current margin.

HY Complex refinery margin update - 1/09/22 (with gasoline at almost zero crack)

.................


Diesel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

Jet Fuel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

From above:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 46.5/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 36.0/bb
3. Gasoline Mogas 95 at 35% yield, cracks USD (0.79 + 3.71) / bbl
4. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 4.50/bbl

Gross refining margin:

= (0.46 x 46.5 ) + (0.07 x 36.0) + (0.35 x 4.5)+ (0.12 x 4.5)
= 21.39 + 2.52 + 1.57 + 0.54
= US $ 26.02 / brl
.................

Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $26.0/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 1.238 Billion MYR
...................

If there is still derivative loss for Diesel above, we can expect derivative gain for Gasoline. It would be certainly fair to assume that it can only be gain (as HY hedged at USD 12/brl for gasoline) and at the minimum it would be fair to assume zero hedging loss/gain.

Using worst scenario,

the PBT would be:
= 1.138 Billion MYR

PAT would be: = 853 Million MYR, EPS = 2.84 for Q3
..................


accounting cash flow hedge loss of Q2 at 244 million

the PBT would be:
= 894 Billion MYR

PAT would be: = 670 Million MYR, EPS = 2.23 for Q3 ( still exceeding Q2)
...................

good candidate for privatization, with NTA hitting above 10 by Q3, even if they takeover - MTO offer price will be high if they do that!

Posted by tehka > Sep 2, 2022 7:18 PM | Report Abuse

Omg q3 eps = 2.23 + q2 eps = 2++ wow.. pe 15 = ?? wow..mind is blown .. cannot imagine

@Bob, FYI below on how crack from futures affect refinery margin:

www.cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/introduction-to-crack-spreads.html

In January, Refiner sells the 1:1 Gasoline Crack Spread Futures contract at $17.20:

Sells 1 May RBOB gasoline futures contract at $1.60 per gallon ($67.20 per barrel) Buys 1 April CL futures contract at $50.00 per barrel
Locks in the crack spread at $17.20 per barrel

In the Cash Market in March, Refiner sells the Gasoline Crack Spread at $13.50:

Sells 1000 barrels of physical gasoline at $1.75 per gallon ($73.50 per barrel) Buys 1000 barrels of physical crude oil at $60.00 per barrel
Receives a positive cracking margin of $13.50 per barrel

In March, Refiner buys back (liquidates) the 1:1 Gasoline Crack Spread Futures contract at $13.50 per barrel:

Buys 1 May RBOB gasoline futures contract at $1.75 per gallon ($73.50 per barrel) Sells 1 April CL futures contract at $60.00 per barrel
Futures gain of $3.70 per barrel (which can be applied to the cash market cracking margin)

Profit/Loss calculation:

Hedged crack spread = $17.20 per barrel
Un-hedged cash market cracking margin = $13.50

yes, we assume almost zero only for gasoline . check the details of derivation above

Posted by BobAxelrod > Sep 2, 2022 7:05 PM | Report Abuse

ZERO crack?,....isn't the crack spread where Refineries derived their margins from???

The 244 million losses from Cash flow hedge in Q2 is expected to be recognized somehow as per Rabbit2, as such i am recognizing it in Q3 to reflect worst scenario.

Posted by BobAxelrod > Sep 2, 2022 7:02 PM | Report Abuse

Really blow my mind...on one hand you're saying the hedging would have assumed zero losses.
On the other you are have input of millions in hedging cash losses???

Remember however that the above is assuming ZERO crack of gasoline for July & Aug which had passed, with only another month left for Q3 results to be secured. So it can't be far out from above.

It would be reflective of Q4 you can say at current margin.

HY Complex refinery margin update - 1/09/22 (with gasoline at almost zero crack)

.................


Diesel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

Jet Fuel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

From above:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 46.5/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 36.0/bb
3. Gasoline Mogas 95 at 35% yield, cracks USD (0.79 + 3.71) / bbl
4. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 4.50/bbl

Gross refining margin:

= (0.46 x 46.5 ) + (0.07 x 36.0) + (0.35 x 4.5)+ (0.12 x 4.5)
= 21.39 + 2.52 + 1.57 + 0.54
= US $ 26.02 / brl
.................

Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $26.0/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 1.238 Billion MYR
...................

If there is still derivative loss for Diesel above, we can expect derivative gain for Gasoline. It would be certainly fair to assume that it can only be gain (as HY hedged at USD 12/brl for gasoline) and at the minimum it would be fair to assume zero hedging loss/gain.

Using worst scenario,

the PBT would be:
= 1.138 Billion MYR

PAT would be: = 853 Million MYR, EPS = 2.84 for Q3
..................


accounting cash flow hedge loss of Q2 at 244 million

the PBT would be:
= 894 Billion MYR

PAT would be: = 670 Million MYR, EPS = 2.23 for Q3 ( still exceeding Q2)
...................

even at 80% they wont increase further coz who is going to buy their gasoline? unless they got do hedging like HY

Posted by MoneyMakers > Sep 2, 2022 3:07 PM | Report Abuse

Aiyoyo probability/sslee ofcos refineries can increase diesel output (subsequently crack spread collapse)

Think global refinery utilisation/run rate @ 100% meh aiyoyo

@MM, basically what sslee is saying is you cannot increase diesel output more than current level without increasing gasoline output which explains why the margin-crack has gone low for gasoline

EU refiners - simple type, who mainly produce gasoline & fuel oil at low margin will lose incentive to refine further

basically there is no solution to the Diesel shortage unless Russian diesel is allowed to export

based on below hedging figures itself - using the lowest margin for gasoline of 12.665 USD/brl

Gross profit after all hedging losses, minimum possible:

= 10.7 million sales/qtr x 12.67 USD/brl x 4.48 MYR/USD
= 607 million

PBT minimum = 500 million
PAT = 375 million

EPS = RM 1.25 for Q3


Posted by Sslee > Sep 2, 2022 8:59 AM | Report Abuse

Dear probability,
The outstanding Refining margin swap contract as on 30/06/2022
Notional amount: USD 226,945,000
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM 1,751,332,000
Hence unrealized loss RM (1,751,332,000-261,065,000) = RM 1,490,267,000

On 30/06/2022:
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
Diesel crack spread: USD 56.125
Average of the two USD (31.578+56.125)/2= USD43.85
USD to MYR: 4.397

V: Volume of outstanding refining margin swap contract (Barrels)
A: Average outstanding margin per barrel hedged (USD)

Equation:
from notional amount: V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
from unrealized loss: V x (43.85 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (43.85 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
9,951,538,250= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 9,951,538,250/565,873,133
A= 17.586
V=226,945,000/17.586
V=12,904,746

If you use only Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.58
Equation:
V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
V x (31.58 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (31.58 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
7,166,923,100= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 7,166,923,100/565,873,133
A= 12.665
V=226,945,000/12.665
V= 17,918,718

With that, two key Question remains to the experts in accounting to Answer. Appreciate anyone's input.


QUESTION 1
..........

@Rabbit2,

Could the cash flow hedge and the cost of hedging of HY in Q2 results not related to the refining margin at all?

My feeling is that it could be purely related to their USD DEBT and interest charges due to exchange rate movement.

https://vinodkothari.com/2022/02/guide-to-hedge-accounting-under-ind-as-109-ifrs-9/


Accounting of Cashflow Hedges

A cash flow hedge is a hedge of the exposure to variability in cash flows that

1 - is attributable to a particular risk associated with a recognised asset or liability (such as all or some future interest payments on variable rate debt) or a highly probable forecast transaction or a firm commitment in respect of foreign currency and

2 -could affect the statement of profit and loss. An example of a cash flow hedge is the hedge of future highly probable sales in a foreign currency using a forward exchange contract. Another example of a cash flow hedge is the use of a swap to change the future floating interest payments on a recognised liability to fixed rate payments.





QUESTION 2:
...........

How can HY refining margin hedging cause the reported cash flow hedge or the cost of hedging of 800 million?


HY Refining Margin Swap Contract (RMSC) - NOTIONAL VALUE value is only around 250m USD. This is not the margin itself but the CONTRACT SIZE, i.e barrels x hedging price/brl. Refer below link:

www.wallstreetmojo.com/notional-value/

Notional Value = Total Units in the Contract * Spot Price

As such their hedging quantity of crude or refined products in barrels should be about 3.5 million barrels only (about a month throughput) thats is used for securing current margins as per MOPS every month or two.

If you see HY Q2 gross profit before the derivative losses as described in section A10 (of about 500 million) it is about 1.4 billion exactly as i had predicted earlier using above model as per my last article.


Such small volume of hedging cannot produce the Cash flow reserve or the Cost of hedging (~800 million) we have seen on Q2 22 results of HY. Simply no way.


Further argument why RMSC is not the hedged margin but the contract size?
.............................

Refer Refining Margin Swap Contract (RMSC) notional value at end of Dec 2019 (USD 357 million).

At that time in 2019, the refining margin is barely 5 USD/brl. If you use your formula, the volume of barrels hedged would be:

= 357 million / (5 USD/brl)
= 71 million barrels

That is equivalent of 7 qtr sales volume throughput of hengyuan, i.e 2 years throughput had been hedged?

This cannot be possible.

Which company can hedge their refining margin hedge swap for next 2 years sales volume in advance?

If that is possible, they can hedge June 22 exceptional margin of 50 USD/brl for next 2 years then. They can then ensure they can clear their long term debt and even buy a new refinery.

Why not 4 years, whats stopping?

My understanding is HY need to be able to fork that notional value of the commodity during maturity and as such requires huge cash - equivalent to 2 years sales volume - that's around 30 billion.

What happens if the refinery breaks down for 6 months - what guarantee the hedge contract provider has from HY?

I totally understand sslee

will ping you on messenger some other better day :)


Posted by Sslee > Sep 2, 2022 10:30 AM | Report Abuse

Thanks probability for pointing out my understanding on refinimg margin swap notional value might be wrong.

I give up on this HRC forum which have become very toxic.

But one thing for sure HRC and Petronm will still report a profitable Q3

Adios.

@Picanto, we shall talk on avg refining margin at end of 2019 so that we get the avg barrels qty hedged.

Which company can hedge their refining margin hedge swap for next 2 years sales volume in advance?

If that is possible, they can hedge June 22 exceptional margin of 50 USD/brl for next 2 years then

Why not 4 years, whats stopping?

@sslee.

Refining margin swap notional value at end of Dec 2019 (USD 357 million).

At that time, the refining margin is barely 5 USD/brl. If you use your formula, the volume of barrels hedged would be:

= 357 million / (5 USD/brl)
= 71 million barrels

That is equivalent of 7 qtr sales volume throughput of hengyuan, i.e 2 years throughput had been hedged?

This is certainly impossible.

would it not be possible for the Notional value of the refining margin swap is the total contract size of feed crude (Price/brl x Barrels) and refined products (Price/brl x Barrels) that was hedged instead of the difference?

It would be good if we can confirm this. Last 2 years if you see at very qtr the notional value is about the same fluctuating along with commodity price.

Posted by Sslee > Sep 2, 2022 9:16 AM | Report Abuse

Note:
My calculation is based on the outstanding Refining margin swap contract as on 30/06/2022
Notional amount: USD 226,945,000
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM 1,751,332,000
Hence unrealized loss RM (1,751,332,000-261,065,000) = RM 1,490,267,000

As each quarter end some of these outstanding refining margin swap contracts will become mature and any gain/loss will be recorded into derivatives financial instruments gain/loss in the profit/loss before tax is arrived at after crediting/charging.

As at each quarter end some new refining margin swap contracts will be added with new margin per barrel hedged.

@sslee, thanks for the derivation above.

Isn't Notional value is barrels x price/barrel on commodity futures / spot price that was hedged.

refer extract from here:

https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/notional-value/

Notional Value = Total Units in the Contract * Spot Price

I have never seen anywhere in google that its linked to the spread 'difference between two commodity'. It always appears at absolute value

Could you share any links where you had obtain the below statement linking to margin?

Posted by Sslee > Sep 2, 2022 8:59 AM | Report Abuse

V: Volume of outstanding refining margin swap contract (Barrels)
A: Average outstanding margin per barrel hedged (USD)

Post removed.Why?

The reason the Refining Margin Swap - Notional value decrease/increase on the financial statement is because HY renew the contract monthly as per the current market pricing of commodity, along with cash market transaction, and thus it changes in proportion to the commodity price changes.

The refining margin is continuously hedged to the latest available crack spread. It is updated monthly - approximately.

It function exactly as per the model presented here earlier:

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2022-06-11-story-h1624320379-HENGYUAN_derivatives_loss_on_Q1_22_completely_clarification.jsp

@Rabbit2,

Could the cash flow hedge and the cost of hedging of HY in Q2 results not related to the refining margin at all?

My feeling is that it could be purely related to their USD DEBT and interest charges due to exchange rate movement.

https://vinodkothari.com/2022/02/guide-to-hedge-accounting-under-ind-as-109-ifrs-9/

Accounting of Cashflow Hedges

A cash flow hedge is a hedge of the exposure to variability in cash flows that

1 - is attributable to a particular risk associated with a recognised asset or liability (such as all or some future interest payments on variable rate debt) or a highly probable forecast transaction or a firm commitment in respect of foreign currency and

2 -could affect the statement of profit and loss. An example of a cash flow hedge is the hedge of future highly probable sales in a foreign currency using a forward exchange contract. Another example of a cash flow hedge is the use of a swap to change the future floating interest payments on a recognised liability to fixed rate payments.

....

If you see HY Q2 gross profit before the derivative losses as described in section A10 (of about 500 million) it is about 1.4 billion exactly as i had predicted earlier.

The Refining Margin Swap - NOTIONAL VALUE value is only around 250m USD. This is not the margin itself but the CONTRACT SIZE, i.e barrels x hedging price/brl. As such their hedging quantity of crude or refined products in barrels should be about 3 million only (about a month throughput)

https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/notional-value/

Refer my below message before QTR results:


Posted by probability > Aug 30, 2022 1:42 PM | Report Abuse

Dear all,

just so that you dont misinterpret what shared by Zhuge above, kindly use the below as a very fair guidance for Q2 results as per my discussion with Johnzhang earlier.

The derivative loss, will equally match the gross profit that will be reported higher than 1,056 below which can possibly hit 1.4 billion above.

Expect Q3 PAT to be higher than Q2 as all the derivate loss will disappear by then.


Posted by Johnzhang > Aug 14, 2022 4:15 PM | Report Abuse

Hi probability, Thanks for the explanation.

Total expenses after GP (ie manufacturing, Adm, Dep & Amortisation, Finance) was $95M for Q1 2022, $100M per qtr average for 2021 and $106M per qtr average for 2020. Your $80+100 M = $180M expenses for Q2 is well above the actual in recent qtrs and therefore with huge buffer built-in.

Your estimated GP is $1,056 M
less hedging loss ($100M)
less Expenses ($180M)
-------------------------------------
PBT $776M

Tax $100m @24% ($24M)
Tax $676M @33% ($223M)
-----------------------------------------
NPAT $529M
EPS $1.76

The upside are :
1. lower expenses than the $180M built-in the calculation
2. Higher GP from significantly higher Diesel yield (46 vs 34%) and lower Fuel oil.

The reservation i have if the Management's actual hedging deviate from the model described by you. Let's wait for the QR with much excitement.

We look forward to the exciting QR.



Posted by probability > Aug 14, 2022 4:39 PM | Report Abuse

Well summarized John, thanks

Any higher GP reported than $1,056 will result equally higher hedging loss to give back the same after hedging loss of $956.

thanks Rabbit2..

Posted by Rabbit2 > Sep 1, 2022 12:09 AM | Report Abuse

@Probability @Johnzhang @Sslee @Zhugeliang @Hng33
Not sure whether this will be the better example to explain marked to market thingy…
You purchased a bond RM1 mil at 3.8% interest p.a. with a tenure of 3 years. Due to OPR movements, investors’ risk and reward expectation, the market yield of your bond increase to 4.3% and hence causing the market price of your bond now dropped to below RM1 mil I.e. unrealized marked to market loss. However, if you hold your bond until maturity, you will still get your 3.8% fixed interest p.a., with all this marked to market gain or loss will eventually reset to zero on the maturity date as you will get back exact amount principal repayment of RM1 mil from the issuer.
Fair value of derivatives consist of 2 components which is the spot element and forward point (basis swap spread) element. Spot element is like the 3.8% interest element, basis swap spread/cost of hedging is like the market expectation which the unrealized gain/loss will eventually reset to zero on the contract maturity date.
This is why I said losses on cash flow hedge will be recycled to pnl when the settlement is due, whereas losses on cost of hedging will eventually reset to zero upon maturity.

@sslee, after studying all the notes on hedging, if possible make an article how hedging of commodity & refining margin swap work with the precise meaning of notional value, maturity etc and cash flow hedge and cost of hedging

this article will be useful for both petronm and hengyuan in the future

sanction havent started yet

TQ (if i have time i will do also)

exactly sslee, their hedging position is in gasoline where the margin is thin for protection

thats why they made huge money in Q2 with the gain in Diesel and Jet Fuel crack


Posted by probability > Aug 31, 2022 9:16 AM | Report Abuse X

The most likely commodity hedging that caused the unrealized derivative loss is the Gasoline.

Note that the crack spread of gasoline jumped from 10 USD/brl to 32 USD/brl from Q4 21 by end of Q2 22

Say they hedged 10 million barrels 'gasoline - brent' crack by end of 2021 (considering the intent to secure relatively good margin in Q4 21' compared to avg of only 7 USD/brl last few years).

They would have bought brent crude at 100 USD and sold gasoline at 110 USD/brl in futures market with maturity of 2 years (end of 2023).

The above means they have a margin swap hedging contract valued at 10 million barrels x 10 USD/brl = USD 100 million expiring by Dec 2023.

Now by end of Q2 , the gasoline margin had expanded to 32 USD/brl.

They would need to mark to market the hedging contract status by end of Q2

This means they will report an unrealized hedging loss of 10 million x 22 USD/brl (crack expansion from their hedging to 32 from 10), which equal 220 million USD.

Now by end of Q3, if the present crack maintains for gasoline, the crack would drop back to 10 USD/brl resulting with zero hedging loss.

They can choose to realize the hedging by this qtr without affecting the P&L at all or they can do it when another opportunity arise before end of 2023 (but they must realize before the maturity).

crack spread is against brent (their price difference)

the absolute chart i showed is for Mogas95 - the actual market price

Posted by sonyx123 > Aug 31, 2022 11:26 PM | Report Abuse

@Probability. Could you explain why the pricing for D1N1 trend is much different, while seems to be coming down to normal level? Which in theory should be the right one to look at

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/

Why Q3 22 will no longer have the unrealized hedging loss reported in Q2 when mark to market is done on their hedging positions?
................................

You can view absolute price of each commodity (refined products) here:

Diesel:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NYMEX%3AAGX1!

Gasoline:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NYMEX%3AAV01!

Jet Fuel:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NYMEX%3AAKS1!

The message here is that their current pricing is more or less the same as it was at end of Mar 22 (as per Q1 22 mark to market unrealized hedging loss).

These refined products market pricing at end June 22' (Q2 22) is exceptional one-off figure that gave huge unrealized derivative loss when mark to market.

End of Q3 22' market pricing of these products will be somewhat similar to Q1 22' and thus the unrealized derivative loss will be back to similar level.

It has nothing to do and will not affect the gross profit of Q3 22 derived using avg crack spread.

Asia oil/products: Dubai slumps 5% on expiry, diesel cracks near $50/b.

1h ago

https://www.qcintel.com/article/asia-oil-products-dubai-slumps-5-on-expiry-diesel-cracks-near-50-b-8166.html

Products


Gasoline offers along the curve at a premium to the swaps price weighed on the cash market, with Total looking to sell a 92 RON cargo for loading 15-20 days ahead at a $1.60/b FOB Singapore premium to swaps and PTT for loading 20-25 days ahead at a $1.80/b premium. Cutting $0.50/b from the physical assessment, that translated into a flat price fall of a chunky $11.62/b to $96.81/b, with the spot crack to Brent falling $5.25/b to just +$0.57/b.

Jet saw Aramco, PetroChina and Unipec as the sole participants in the cash market again on Wednesday, with the latter offering down a cargo for loading 15-19 September to a $3.50/b FOB Singapore premium to swaps pricing around 17 September. That shaved value off the front of Quantum’s cash curve and lowered the differential assessment $0.08/b from Tuesday to a $2.71/b premium to the curve. Translating into a flat price down $5.89/b at $139.27/b, that left the spot crack to Brent up $0.48/b at +$43.03/b.

The diesel 10ppm market saw Aramco offer down a cargo for loading 15-20 days ahead to a $1.90/b FOB Singapore premium to the curve while Total bid for 25-30 days ahead cargoes at $2.70/b, with neither side being hit. That was enough to flatten out the structure of the cash curve, however, and averaged out it took $0.05/b from Quantum’s cash assessment to leave the physical market assessed at a $2.06/b premium to swaps. That left the 10ppm spot price down $5.14/b at $145.43/b, with the spot crack to Brent up $1.23/b at +$49.19/b.

once you read above and understand hedging and mark to market, it should be quite easy to understand why Q3 will have its unrealized hedging loss back to end of Q1 22 level if current pricing remains till end of Sept 22 (Q3).

see the charts presented here - the pricing of each commodity at end of Q1 22, end of Q2 22 and present.

Q1 22 could not make the PAT projected here as the crack margin only shot up at end of Mar 22.



Posted by probability > Aug 31, 2022 8:54 PM | Report Abuse X

@investor77, no doubt on that

the great thing is the unrealized hedging will likely be back to neutral as gasoline crack had returned back to Q1 level

there is absolutely no reason for the unrealized hedging loss of Q2 to remain in Q3 at present pricing of Crude & refined products which are all back to end of Q1 22 level. This is simple common sense

.........


HY Complex refinery margin update - 31/08/22


Diesel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

Jet Fuel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

From above:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 45.24/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 35.83/bb
3. Gasoline Mogas 95 at 35% yield, cracks USD (9.62 + 3.75) / bbl
4. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 13.40/bbl

Gross refining margin:

= (0.46 x 45.24 ) + (0.07 x 35.83) + (0.35 x 13.40)+ (0.12 x 13.40)
= 20.81 + 2.50 + 4.69 + 1.61
= US $ 29.6 / brl
.................

Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $29.6/brl) x (MYR 4.4/USD)
= 1.393 Billion MYR
...................

@firehawk, the below link is for you:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marktomarket.asp

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Mark to market can present a more accurate figure for the current value of a company's assets, based on what the company might receive in exchange for the asset under current market conditions.

However, during unfavorable or volatile times, MTM may not accurately represent an asset's true value in an orderly market.

Mark to market is an alternative to historical cost accounting, which maintains an asset's value at the original purchase cost.

In futures trading, accounts in a futures contract are marked to market on a daily basis. Profit and loss are calculated between the long and short positions.

...

For HY case, their hedging on crude oil will be on LONG position

hedging on refined products are on SHORT position

when market crude price drop, they will have hedging loss (and vice versa)

when refined products price up, they will have hedging loss (and vice versa)

snake at least got some substance..that MM and Jerichomy is space junk

i guarantee anyone who bought at 6.95 tomorrow, in 3 months time will make fantastic profit....

collect at 6.95 also not bad....still got good chance to make money... got 300% return potential when it hits 2017 peak price

Yang lambat faham seperti ularsaw...mungking dapat at limit up price

I think tomorrow when trading opens...

it is SIAPA CEPAT 'FAHAM HEDGING' DIA DAPAT - jackpot untung dari saham HY.......LOL!

LOL! what a sharp and yet comical answer..

fantastic sslee

Posted by Sslee > Aug 31, 2022 7:47 PM | Report Abuse

Ular gotone very OKU question want to ask you leh. Why HY earn 222sen in last Qtr but NTA drop more than than lat Qtr from 662 sen to 524sen.

Itu China boss ada baca MM punya comment: war over, no more war premium, crude oil and refining margin rutuh harga maka dia pun takut dan terus buat future refining margin 3 juta barrel setiap bulan untuk 15 bulan pada USD 20. Manatahu itu MM blow water saja refining margin sudah naik ke USD30 dan account boss sudah realised rugi USD 3x3x10= USD 90 juta dan unrealised rugi USD 3x12x10 = USD 360 juta.

Maka kalau unrealised loss USD 360 juta masuk P&L itu profit sudah jadi loss kurang cantik. Boss pun pandai masuk itu unrealised loss ke Balance sheet maka NTA pun jadi jatuk dari 662 sen to 524sen.

Itu semua salah MM