@firehawk, when you hedge its about protecting yourself from future transaction that will take place, not what had already happened (like the inventory you already purchase).

extract from above provided link:

..

In January, the spread between April crude oil futures ($50.00 per barrel) and May RBOB gasoline futures ($1.60 per gallon or $67.20 per barrel) presents what the refiner believes to be a favorable 1:1 crack spread of $17.20 per barrel. Typically, refiners purchase crude oil for processing in a particular month, and sell the refined products one month later.

The refiner decides to “sell” the crack spread by selling RBOB gasoline futures, and buying crude oil futures, thereby locking in the $17.20 per barrel crack spread value. He executes this by selling May RBOB gasoline futures at $1.60 per gallon (or $67.20 per barrel), and buying April crude oil futures at $50.00 per barrel.

Two months later, in March, the refiner purchases the crude oil at $60.00 per barrel in the cash market for refining into products. At the same time, he also sells gasoline from his existing stock in the cash market for $1.75 per gallon, or $73.50 per barrel. His crack spread value in the cash market has declined since January, and is now $13.50 per barrel ($73.50 per barrel gasoline less $60.00 per barrel for crude oil).

Since the futures market reflects the cash market, April crude oil futures are also selling at $60.00 per barrel in March — $10 more than when he purchased them. May RBOB gasoline futures are also trading higher at $1.75 per gallon ($73.50 per barrel). To complete the crack spread transaction, the refiner buys back the crack spread by first repurchasing the gasoline futures he sold in January, and he also sells back the crude oil futures. The refiner locks in a $3.70 per barrel profit on this crack spread futures trade.

The refiner has successfully locked in a crack spread of $17.20 (the futures gain of $3.70 is added to the cash market cracking margin of $13.50). Had the refiner been un-hedged, his cracking margin would have been limited to the $13.50 gain he had in the cash market. Instead, combined with the futures gain, his final net cracking margin with the hedge is $17.20 — the favorable margin he originally sought in January.

i am too tired ular, fighting with MM... a great fighter...
however, at the end i realized it was a girl

need to rest today to watch tomorrow's drama

now those answering decided not to entertain any condescending query

good luck ular..LOL!

@ularsawa, kindly go through comments from Rabbit2, Sslee and hng33 if you are lazy to scroll through all the historical comments since yday where the same questions had been asked and answered

Posted by UlarSawa > Aug 31, 2022 5:38 PM | Report Abuse

Walao Oil Specialist still active at HY. Must be making alot lately sapu cheap cheap lah. Ular gotone very OKU question want to ask you leh. Why HY earn 222sen in last Qtr but NTA drop more than than lat Qtr from 662 sen to 524sen. Why earn so much still need to raise so much of fund and borrowed more money leh. Debt increased alot leh. Why ha. Can help answer or not. Boleh?

if you hedge refined products and you current market pricing went higher than the price you had hedge, you have unrealized hedging loss when mark to market

its the opposite for crude oil

for crude (raw mat) inventory , its buying in futures

for refined oil (products) inventory, it selling in futures

refer how hedging is done on below link:

www.cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/introduction-to-crack-spreads.html

Posted by firehawk > Aug 31, 2022 5:06 PM | Report Abuse

By hedging the inventory, you are buying or selling the hedging contract?

LOL..you thought this is bond kah?

as suspected you never really understood the meaning of hedging

Posted by MoneyMakers > Aug 31, 2022 4:59 PM | Report Abuse

Aiyoyo Probability longer maturity = higher risk

Thats why 6month bonds pay lower yield/interest than 10yr/30yr bonds

Longer maturity = higher risk = compensate with higher bond yield/interest

you are absolutely wrong on this statement
the greater the maturity period, the lesser the risk - this should be obvious

the only pay some minimal interest charge for longer maturity

Posted by MoneyMakers > Aug 31, 2022 4:43 PM | Report Abuse

Nobody will enter huge longterm commodity hedge (exponential risk).

read carefully its for refining margin swap, ie the crack spread for gasoline

example above is for crude oil to show hedging effects qtr to qtr

Posted by MoneyMakers > Aug 31, 2022 4:32 PM | Report Abuse

Aiyoyo makes no sense to enter 1yr hedging contract at fixed price usd120

Oil could be usd60 in 1yr who knows

Daily/weekly oil price alrdy highly volatile - risk on 12month contract is exponential

yes, market is intelligent eventually..

the sooner one realizes the greater the opportunity to make money from HY

like i said earlier, any price below limit up price is a bargain


Posted by stockwin > Aug 31, 2022 4:26 PM | Report Abuse

Perhaps those who believe HY is doing pure hedging by the book will benefit from holding on to HY to see it rise eventually if not tomorrow. Those who think HY is doing derivatives trading will shun the stock and regret later.

@Mike even 12 months is plenty of time, in fact Q3 market pricing for crude, and refined products already matching Q1

As such the unrealized derivative loss will go back to the level reported in Q1 22

you can now keep repeating the same
all concern & disputes had been clarified

Only Q2 we have sudden spike on refined products price end of June for Diesel and by April for Gasoline

refined product price going above hedging price will be reported as hedging loss as mentioned above

Posted by MoneyMakers > Aug 31, 2022 4:20 PM | Report Abuse

Pg 130 says hedging contract maturity between 1-33months (2020: 1-12months)

Likely most HY hedge contracts only shortterm 1-3months @ thats why see sudden huge ‘pending’ hedging loss 1.07Bil (newly entered contract not seen in prev QR)

thats why HY is confident in giving interim dividend...

wait till you see the russian oil sanction takes effect

@Mikecyc, read the annual report its for refining margin swap

refining margin swap is basically hedging the feed crude and refined products at the same time

for crude , if market price drops below hedging price, its hedging loss and vice versa

for refined products, if market price rise above hedging price, its hedging loss and vice versa

Refer pg 130 of 2021 annual report - refer 'maturity date' its until 2024

Posted by MoneyMakers > Aug 31, 2022 3:50 PM | Report Abuse

What their annual report means is UP TO 24months

Impossible leh ALL hedged contract 24months expiry - not logic (too long)

Go and read their annual reports (search using CTRL F for derivatives / notional amount), all hedging contract has approximately 24 months for maturity.

Posted by MoneyMakers > Aug 31, 2022 3:43 PM | Report Abuse

Aiyoyo where got HY hedge longterm 1yr at same hedged price

Q2 is 1st time show huge ‘pending’ 1.07Bil hedging loss (new hedge position entered @ not reflected in any prev QR) - means their hedging contract shortterm basis

Hedged price also change with new contract entered lo

For layman, one can view that HY has an inventory (crude) of 6 million barrels where they hedged at say 125 USD/brl by end if Q4 21.

If by end of Q1 22, the market inventory value is at 120 USD/brl.
They will report this as hedging loss of :

(125 - 120) x 6 million barrels
= 132 million MYR loss

If by end of Q2 22', the market inventory value is at 100 USD/brl
They will report this as hedging loss of :
(125 - 100) x 6 million barrels
= 660 million MYR loss

If by end of Q3 22', the market inventory value is at 125 USD/brl
They will report this as hedging loss of :
(125 - 125) x 6 million barrels
= 0 million MYR loss

If by end of Q4 22', the market inventory value is at 130 USD/brl
They will report this as hedging loss of :
(125 - 130) x 6 million barrels
= 132 million MYR GAIN!

The above is true as long as they kept the same inventory and did not utilize it for sales at market value on any of the qtrs above.

The maturity date of the hedging contract is the deadline where they have to realize it as sales. Once they make it as sales, they will be paid as per market value and that is when the hedging loss or gain above will be realized and reported on P&L.

Say in Q1 22 they had decided to sell at market value. They would have been paid 120 USD x 6 million barrels = 720 million USD

On their hedging contract they have to pay the same 6 million barrels at 125 USD/brl = 750 million USD

(the hedging contract simply means you need to pay the agreed amount (price) before maturity and take hold of the 6 million barrels)

The difference in cash flow; 720 million (IN) - 750 million (OUT) = - 30 million USD is the hedging loss that would go to P&L.

We can see from above the loss reported on unrealized Hedging may never take place at all and be reported on P&L as they have plenty of time for the market pricing to match again their hedging price.

HY does hedging on the crack and also on the inventory.

If the hedging is done on inventory, you can see hng33's explanation.

If the hedging was done on margin, you can see my explanation. It can be purely gasoline or any combination of the refined products. But, gasoline fits the changes best for ease of explanation here.

Its most likely combination of both inventory and crack / margin.


Posted by hng33 > Aug 31, 2022 11:43 AM | Report Abuse

Based on Q2 revenues and cost, hengyuan realize crack spread around USD 28, which in accord to average crack spread range from Mar to May crack for gasoline+ diesel + jet fuel. Hengyuan realize pretax profit RM 900m.

The next Q3 result comprises of crack spread june to Aug, average crack spread for gasoline + diesel + jet fuel is around USD38. Therefore, it can extimate than hengyuan upcoming Q3 pretax profit is RM 1.2 billion. EPS = RM 3

The hedging position will revert back from loss to gain as crude oil, feedstock cost, fallen from USD 135 in Q2 to USD 105 in Q3. Hengyuan NTA will booster significantly from RM 5.2 to + RM 3( from reversal hedging) + Q3 EPS RM 3 - - - - > total NTA for hengyuan RM 11


Posted by probability > Aug 31, 2022 9:16 AM | Report Abuse X

The most likely commodity hedging that caused the unrealized derivative loss is the Gasoline.

Note that the crack spread of gasoline jumped from 10 USD/brl to 32 USD/brl from Q4 21 by end of Q2 22

Say they hedged 10 million barrels 'gasoline - brent' crack by end of 2021 (considering the intent to secure relatively good margin in Q4 21' compared to avg of only 7 USD/brl last few years).

They would have bought brent crude at 100 USD and sold gasoline at 110 USD/brl in futures market with maturity of 2 years (end of 2023).

The above means they have a margin swap hedging contract valued at 10 million barrels x 10 USD/brl = USD 100 million expiring by Dec 2023.

Now by end of Q2 , the gasoline margin had expanded to 32 USD/brl.

They would need to mark to market the hedging contract status by end of Q2

This means they will report an unrealized hedging loss of 10 million x 22 USD/brl (crack expansion from their hedging to 32 from 10), which equal 220 million USD.

Now by end of Q3, if the present crack maintains for gasoline, the crack would drop back to 10 USD/brl resulting with zero hedging loss.

They can choose to realize the hedging by this qtr without affecting the P&L at all or they can do it when another opportunity arise before end of 2023 (but they must realize before the maturity).

@sharemarket21, i can almost confirm that Q3 EPS should be exceeding RM 3

Dear all,

just so that you dont misinterpret what shared by Zhuge above, kindly use the below as a very fair guidance for Q2 results as per my discussion with Johnzhang earlier.

The derivative loss, will equally match the gross profit that will be reported higher than 1,056 below which can possibly hit 1.4 billion above.

Expect Q3 PAT to be higher than Q2 as all the derivate loss will disappear by then.


Posted by Johnzhang > Aug 14, 2022 4:15 PM | Report Abuse

Hi probability, Thanks for the explanation.

Total expenses after GP (ie manufacturing, Adm, Dep & Amortisation, Finance) was $95M for Q1 2022, $100M per qtr average for 2021 and $106M per qtr average for 2020. Your $80+100 M = $180M expenses for Q2 is well above the actual in recent qtrs and therefore with huge buffer built-in.

Your estimated GP is $1,056 M
less hedging loss ($100M)
less Expenses ($180M)
-------------------------------------
PBT $776M

Tax $100m @24% ($24M)
Tax $676M @33% ($223M)
-----------------------------------------
NPAT $529M
EPS $1.76

The upside are :
1. lower expenses than the $180M built-in the calculation
2. Higher GP from significantly higher Diesel yield (46 vs 34%) and lower Fuel oil.

The reservation i have if the Management's actual hedging deviate from the model described by you. Let's wait for the QR with much excitement.

We look forward to the exciting QR.



Posted by probability > Aug 14, 2022 4:39 PM | Report Abuse

Well summarized John, thanks

Any higher GP reported than $1,056 will result equally higher hedging loss to give back the same after hedging loss of $956.

he he..nice one newbie8080

@sslee, ok got it. Its exactly matching the yield they mentioned on the Q&A...thanks

https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/-/media/Global/Files/crude-oils/Tapis/Crude_Oil_Tapis_assay_pdf_new.pdf

ha ha, they did say its extra light..

Posted by Sslee > Aug 29, 2022 10:59 PM | Report Abuse

https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/Crude-oils/Crude-trading/Tapis

@sslee, did not get when you said 'Tapis cut vol %'

referring the Q&A , i do believe their statements on the yield

it appears like Tapis is very sweet and light (shorter hydrocarbon lengths avg)

very interesting, got such diff MFRS accounting also

Posted by Rabbit2 > Aug 29, 2022 10:21 PM | Report Abuse

@Sslee
Agreed that derivative losses will be reversed but it's not a provision. It is merely a marked to market losses as at end June to reflect the current contract price in the market. This will eventually be reversed and replaced with actual periodical settlement.

If HRC and Petron consistently apply its hedging strategy and based on today's 29 August cut off, most losses will be reversed and likely there is a marked to market gain by now.

Accounting standards are trying hard to force all companies to reflect their numbers based on current fair values but it comes with unintended consequences in particular to those companies that are entering derivatives for hedging purposes.

If both HRC and Petron apply new hedge accounting rules under MFRS 9, these marked to market losses/gains could possibly be reflected under other comprehensive income instead of profit or loss.

That's my thought.

U.S. energy secretary urges refiners not to increase fuel exports

Sat, August 27, 2022

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-energy-secretary-urges-refiners-180001860.html

The U.S. Energy Secretary urged domestic oil refiners this month to not further increase exports of fuels like gasoline and diesel, adding that the Biden administration may need to consider taking action if the plants do not build inventories.

U.S. refiners have boosted oil product exports this month as domestic crude oil production rose and global fuel demand continued to recover.

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, in a letter sent Aug. 18, urged seven refiners including Valero, ExxonMobil and Chevron, to build supplies of fuels as the United States enters peak hurricane season.

US Petroleum Exports at All-Time High as Overseas Crises Deepen

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-petroleum-exports-time-high-160300893.html

The US shipped out the most crude and refined-oil products in three decades as energy-starved economies increasingly turn to American supplies to stave off shortages.

More than 11 million barrels of crude and products such as diesel fuel left US ports on a daily basis last week for overseas markets, government data showed on Wednesday. That was the most in data going back to February 1991.

Diesel led the surge with a 20% jump in exports while crude outflows exceeded 4 million barrels day for a second straight week -- the first time that’s happened since lawmakers lifted a decades-old export ban in late 2015.

Europe and Asia are grappling with some of the worst energy crises in history, and oil supplies could soon get tighter. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister earlier this week said the OPEC+ alliance would consider production cuts to address the dislocation between futures trading and fundamental supply-and-demand forces.

Post removed.Why?

i thought it was a fashion show here comparing underwears...anyway i better dont masuk campur too much..

will escape from here now!.


Posted by CharlesT > Aug 28, 2022 3:47 PM | Report Abuse

U want me to tell u the colour of my underwear today or not?

last remaining dinosaurs of i3 looks like..hope they dont extinct

Just record all your buy and sell transaction on your blog and compare for a year on the % return...apa macam?

others also can join

i wish both of them show their skills by showing real life trading updates here....

Post removed.Why?

I seriously cannot see a more 'perfect storm' to push HY & PetronM share price up above RM 10 soon...

Sslee, Johnzhang...HOLD DAMN TIGHT!

@abc333. thanks

U.S. energy secretary urges refiners not to increase fuel exports

Sat, August 27, 2022

The U.S. Energy Secretary urged domestic oil refiners this month to not further increase exports of fuels like gasoline and diesel, adding that the Biden administration may need to consider taking action if the plants do not build inventories.

U.S. refiners have boosted oil product exports this month as domestic crude oil production rose and global fuel demand continued to recover.

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, in a letter sent Aug. 18, urged seven refiners including Valero, ExxonMobil and Chevron, to build supplies of fuels as the United States enters peak hurricane season.

Diesel Pinch Looms as World Seeks Relief From Pricey Gas

26 August 2022

- Fuel stockpiles thin at key hubs in Europe, US and Asia
- Profits for making diesel poised to surge as demand increases

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-25/diesel-pinch-looms-as-world-seeks-relief-from-pricey-natural-gas#xj4y7vzkg

next qtr sure even higher...just sapu the call warrants!

Posted by Sslee > Aug 27, 2022 5:51 PM | Report Abuse

The best is still let the quarterly finamcial report speak for itself.
Petronm
Q1 EPS RM 39.4 cents.
Q2 EPS RM 68 cents

thanks John & Sslee for the clarifications

actually i dont mind having a Teams meeting discussion to have our understanding all aligned :)

it will be great if sslee creates a whatsapp group for all 3 of us

what you say sslee?

but at this moment i am just lazy to study / investigate to understand this...

lets just wait for the results

they will not call it as realized gain in hedging in next qtr if price goes to the same level they hedged, but zero hedging loss and reduce the gross profit by the same amount

@sslee, what you are saying is the same thing.

The unrealized portion of the hedging loss (what John said above) will become a gain if the price of the commodity goes back to the price level they hedged by the next qtr.

But, the gain is not a real gain - as they will report a lower gross profit (due to cash market transaction) by the same magnitude.

@MM, only complex refinery can try to improve yield of diesel by breaking down (catalytic cracking) of longer chain hydrocarbon like fuel oil...

but increasing yield from 35 - 46% is not enough... see the maths i had presented -its simply not possible.

The shortage of diesel has been there since Feb 22'this years and clearly present refinery cannot overcome this.

All refinery running full swing just to produce diesel and thats why the gasoline price had come down as its inevitably produced just like fuel oil which nobody wants and having negative crack spread

in income statement, they are trying to tell 'what is the true present status' of their income if current condition of the commodity prices maintains going forward...

This is a logical assumption to make (that current prices maintains) to see the consequences in advance and tell the shareholders via the financial statement (Income statement) - though it is yet to happen.

@John, FYI

Posted by probability > Jun 12, 2022 2:08 PM | Report Abuse

Sample business transaction of HY
................................

Say John you are the Shell retailers in Malaysia

Myself and my twin brother represent HY. I deal with CASH MARKET and my twin brother deals with FUTURES MARKET.

Our sales volumetric achievable in a month is 4.0 million barrels, 1.0 million barrels per week.

1) CASH MARKET transaction done by me;

I deliver refined oil to you exactly every Friday at 1 million barrels.
Every week at the same time Friday, i also buy crude oil from Petronas at the same volume 1.0 million barrels.

You pay me as per current market value of refined oil (spot price matching singapore hub crack spread) and i pay petronas as per the current brent spot price.


2) FUTURES MARKET transaction done by twin brother. You can view this exactly like stock market.


Every time i deliver 1 millon barrel to you, my brother will clear back 1 million barrels from the futures market buy selling back at current futures the 1 millon barrels he had gone LONG 4 weeks ago.

At the same time he will also clear 1 million barrels refined oil by buying back at current market the refined he had gone SHORT 4 weeks ago.


If my twin brother lost money in Futures market that he is forced to do (cover back his long and short positions) due to my cash market transaction in parallel, its derivative loss. If he had made money, then its a derivative gain.

@John, the word 'outstanding commodity hedges' means to me that this is transaction in 'futures market' that has not been offset with the expected 'cash market' transaction in the coming month at prevailing market prices...

This means, the provision will be effective if the prevailing commodity price maintains in Q3..

Its unrealized - coz they have not cleared the hedging portion.

Remember the twins transaction concept i mentioned earlier. This is what i can think at the moment.

OK thanks for the info John. Not coming from accounting background, this realized and unrealized effects is something i never placed effort to understand till now..plain lazy..:(

have a feeling what you are saying is true...

let hardworking sifu sslee also comment :)

90% sure he was the one who asked all the Q&A to petronM earlier

Posted by Sslee > Aug 27, 2022 8:36 AM | Report Abuse

https://www.petron.com.my/investor-relations/corporate-governance/

You can read the rest on above link.
6.
Click on: Questions and Answers MEW!

Interesting..could be true John.

To me the moment you realise a derivative loss realized or unrealized, then you have pegged the margin with a new level (mark to mark)...

so the next report will reflect the market margin at the end of June 22', if it had not changed further by end of Sept 22''

Posted by Johnzhang > Aug 27, 2022 11:07 AM | Report Abuse


That’s what I think too. The provision for hedging loss of $166.8 mil made in Q2 stands good chance for write back as additional profit in Q3 if crude in Q3 is flat or lower . Is my understanding correct?

@sslee, appreciate your comments on the above too

The above means PetronM is making huge margin at their refinery even using Tapis at a premium to Brent.

We can expect superb results for Hengyuan...