probability

Probability | Joined since 2014-03-18

Investing Experience Not Disclosed
Risk Profile Moderate

Probability is a measure of 'likeliness' that an event will occur - there are no 100% certainty.

Followers

22

Following

2

Blog Posts

14

Threads

14,466

Blogs

Threads

Portfolio

Follower

Following

Summary
Total comments
14,466
Past 30 days
6
Past 7 days
0
Today
0

User Comments
Stock

2021-05-25 11:03 | Report Abuse

finally pingdan came out...boss any comments on eng segment? any remaining revenue to be recognized

Posted by pingdan > May 25, 2021 10:59 AM | Report Abuse

finally mmc to the moon

Stock

2021-05-24 18:38 | Report Abuse

satisfied with the port performance as predicted (next qtr will be even better due to Suez canal clearing pent up vessels), only the engineering segment did not turn out as pingdan predicted...if it comes next qtr, it will be a record qtr earnings

Stock

2021-05-24 15:13 | Report Abuse

and by the way PTP transshipment is at 97% of all TEUs handled presently, North port would also be at similar level.

Stock

2021-05-24 15:12 | Report Abuse

Just some deep information sharing to enlighten all:

Another ‘New Normal’ as Container Rollover Rates Increase
May 11, 2021

https://gcaptain.com/another-new-normal-as-container-rollover-rates-increase/

The worst performer was Malaysia’s Port Klang, where rollover rates increased 7% year on year to reach 64%, meaning that nearly two of every three boxes handled missed their intended sailing.

https://www.icontainers.com/us/2018/06/19/what-happens-when-your-cargo-gets-rolled/

What happens when your cargo gets rolled?

If your cargo is rolled because of a carrier issue, the carrier will automatically rescheduled your shipment and place it onto its next-departing vessel. Any extra charges involved will be covered by the carrier.

However, should your cargo get rolled due to missing paperwork or customs problems or failure to comply with certain requirements, you will be charged for the roll over.

Note that roll overs often cost more than the ocean freight price itself.

Avoid transshipments. Containers travelling on routes with transshipments run a much higher risk of getting rolled. First at the port of sail and then at the transshipment ports, however many and wherever there may be.

News & Blogs

2021-05-23 21:13 | Report Abuse

lame excuse.... bullshit...

Malaysian avg death rate per day is only 5 before covid from all natural causes, covid alone is hitting 50 per day now

how can suicides due to economic restriction go above this rate?

News & Blogs

2021-05-23 16:43 | Report Abuse

if left as it is...there will be a point where Islamic countries would only chose to trade with Islamic countries...every single produce for consumption will be forced to have Islamic origin..

it will be an economic sanction based on religion

News & Blogs

2021-05-23 16:41 | Report Abuse

reproduction in the name of love is not far from war via domination (by increasing their population %)..its violence masked in the name of love...

China is smart enough to sense this by seeing how they deal with Uighurs

News & Blogs

2021-05-23 16:24 | Report Abuse

if aliens see our planet...it would be too obvious to them that the above is the single most stark issue humans are facing that is preventing absolute peace..

its embarrassing to see despite all the technological advancement and intelligence and empathy human posses...the above is still persisting like a growing cancer

News & Blogs

2021-05-23 16:18 | Report Abuse

I would give a Noble prize....if we can find one single Muslim leader out of the 1.8 billion Muslims around the world to teach the Islamic followers on recognizing, respecting that all other religion have equal strength and conviction on their own respective religion and that absolute freedom and respect to be given to their rights and practices.. and that the Muslims shall be given rights to convert and chose whatever religion they wish too...

religion should not be forced on the believers and to the others who are living within their surrounding...give absolute freedom to others to do what they wish

if the leader can make muslims live with other religion just like how christians could live together with jews, and hindus with buddhist...

if he could do that, we will be saving millions of lives for years to come and eliminate war completely from the planet, and will reduce significantly the risk of humanities extinction from potential nuclear mishaps...

Stock

2021-05-22 14:42 | Report Abuse

Lotte Chemical’s spread to sustain in 2H21

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2021/05/04/lotte-chemicals-spread-to-sustain-in-2h21/

JP Morgan Chase & Co in a separate note last week, expects Lotte Chemical to post strong earnings in 2Q21 though it anticipates some normalisation into 2H21.

The investment bank expects spreads to remain healthy into 2H21 and 2022 as it forecasts FY22 polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) spreads to be between US$600 and US$675 per tonne versus US$710 and US$850 per tonne range currently.

“We upgrade our FY21/FY22E net earnings by circa 2.5 times to three times as we raise our December 2022 TP to RM5.50 from RM4, which accounts for an 84% potential upside,” it said.

The firm reiterated its ‘Overweight’ call on Lotte Chemical.

Due to the strong PE/PP spreads experienced by Lotte Chemical, JP Morgan raised the company’s FY21 and FY22 Ebitda to US$199 and US$163 per tonne respectively.

Stock

2021-05-22 13:14 | Report Abuse

Click on the 'Quick Guide' on The top 20 producers of single use plastic, on below article

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/may/18/twenty-firms-produce-55-of-worlds-plastic-waste-report-reveals

The top 20 producers of single use plastic

1. ExxonMobil contributes 5.9% of total single use plastic waste
2. Dow 5.6%
3. Sinopec 5.3%
4. Indorama Ventures 4.6%
5. Saudi Aramco 4.3%
6. PetroChina 4%
7. LyondellBasell 3.9%
8. Reliance Industries 3.1%
9. Braskem 3%
20. Alpek SA de CV 2.3%
11. Borealis 2.2%
12. Lotte Chemical 2.1%
13. Ineos 2%
14. Total 1.9%
15. Jiangsu Hailun Petrochemical 1.6%
16. Far Eastern New Century 1.6%
17. Formosa Plastics Corporation 1.6%
18. China Energy Investment Group 1.5%
19. PTT 1.5%
20. China Resources 1.3%

.........

I see Lotte Chemical is already top 5 players in Asia.
If they expand with LINE in Indonesia they will have almost monopoly in terms of pricing in the region....

Stock

2021-05-22 13:01 | Report Abuse

hope more investors realize that this is safe haven stock at current worrying level covid cases in malaysia and seeing the pace of vaccination....


Posted by probability > May 21, 2021 1:48 PM | Report Abuse X

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/stacking-mmc%E2%80%99s-ports-against-westports

While certain quarters say PTP, MMC’s port division’s main revenue generator, is largely a transshipment port, with 95% of its throughput being transfer cargo, it has to be noted that as much as 70% of Westports throughput comes from transshipment too.


PTP handled 8.03 million TEUs in 2016, according to the Ministry of Transport’s website. Of this almost 94%, or 7.54 million boxes, were transshipment.


94% transshipment (meaning it does not involve our import & export)
.........

say you have 3% import and 3% export of the remaining TEUs, even if Malaysia completely lockdown (zero manufacturing for export), it effects about 3% max.

Further more, we will have to import way more to compensate under lockdown

Stock

2021-05-22 12:48 | Report Abuse

Financial year ending 2020: Net cash generated from operating activities 1,076,804 ( RM 0.47 per share per annum)

Q1 - 2021 alone, Operating profit/(loss) before working capital changes 633,045 (RM 0.28 per share quarter)

Total Cash and other investments: 4,698,658 (Rm 2.06 cent per share)

..............


The above means, at current price you are buying the company at RM 3.05 - RM 2.06 = RM 0.99


Using the average cash flow before the turnaround results in Q1-21, of RM 0.47 per annum, your pay back is 2 years (RM 0.99/ RM 0.47)

Using the cash flow generated in Q1 - 2021 and annualize it, you get a a forward payback period of less than a 1 year (RM 0.99 / (RM 0.28 x 4)

Even if you HALF the cash flow for annualizing, your payback is 1.8 years.

Not sure if there is any stock cheaper than that in Bursa...if it persists too long i think easily you can have take over offer

Stock

2021-05-21 17:11 | Report Abuse

LOL!...

Posted by SincereStock > May 21, 2021 5:01 PM | Report Abuse

@Ogopogo maybe they bought some at 1.10, TA wise it is uptrend now, so who knows. uptrend = buy, downtrend = cutloss. that what TA sifu teaches us

Stock

2021-05-21 13:48 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/stacking-mmc%E2%80%99s-ports-against-westports

While certain quarters say PTP, MMC’s port division’s main revenue generator, is largely a transshipment port, with 95% of its throughput being transfer cargo, it has to be noted that as much as 70% of Westports throughput comes from transshipment too.


PTP handled 8.03 million TEUs in 2016, according to the Ministry of Transport’s website. Of this almost 94%, or 7.54 million boxes, were transshipment.


94% transshipment (meaning it does not involve our import & export)
.........

say you have 3% import and 3% export of the remaining TEUs, even if Malaysia completely lockdown (zero manufacturing for export), it effects about 3% max.

Further more, we will have to import way more to compensate under lockdown

Stock

2021-05-20 15:58 | Report Abuse

unlike gloves having large number of workers and densely packed....petrochemicals have high standard of precautionary measures and trained staffs to follow struct procedures to prevent any such cases

Stock
Stock

2021-05-18 12:58 | Report Abuse

agreed, i think anything above 4 cents is fantastic

Posted by SincereStock > May 18, 2021 12:53 PM | Report Abuse

@probability declining doesn't indicate result below expectation. see what happen before previous result release.

Stock

2021-05-18 12:30 | Report Abuse

some so called 'investors' from GenM became investors in mmc just within weeks of heavy promotion in GenM forum...and post Breaking news!! ....daily here....LOL!

Stock

2021-05-18 11:56 | Report Abuse

i heard mah sing, hong seng , johan also started petrochemical business due to good margin presently

Stock

2021-05-18 11:52 | Report Abuse

market thinks lctitan making gloves?

Stock

2021-05-18 11:46 | Report Abuse

sorry not PTP, port & logistics segment as a whole above 900m

Stock

2021-05-18 11:43 | Report Abuse

its just waiting for the results to repeat q4 20 to be sure before spiking up i guess

i am 99% certain ptp revenue is above 900m

lets see

Stock

2021-05-18 11:40 | Report Abuse

downside also very low with such dividend payout

Stock

2021-05-18 11:38 | Report Abuse

but i doubt its below expectation, ptp confirmed to have revenue above 900m

Stock

2021-05-18 11:24 | Report Abuse

westport rising but mmc declining....red flag

likely result below expectation

Stock

2021-05-17 15:02 | Report Abuse

Lotte Korea is actually shutting down this month, as such May & June throughput (utilisation) of LCT Malaysia to compensate this shortfall will be phenomenal

News & Blogs

2021-05-16 21:55 | Report Abuse

what is so beautiful is that its showing exceptional margin due to demand side (E-commerce on plastics), at such unsustainably high crude oil price.....

wait till oil price dive, RM 10 is not a dream

News & Blogs

2021-05-16 12:58 | Report Abuse

on second position of justice i see jews...who rules via their own skills...they have enormous contribution to the world...

i doubt china will have such level of ethics once they dominate

News & Blogs

2021-05-16 12:55 | Report Abuse

@sslee, without nuclear weapons from U.S....Japanese would not have given up and talk about peace...

i think humans only talk about justice and peace when they can stand equally tall...else the taller will always bully the shorter

i cannot see fairness and justice exhibited by any race than those vegetarians

all non veg a hypocrites when they talk on peace & justice..they abide by the majority rules thesis

News & Blogs

2021-05-16 12:51 | Report Abuse

yes exactly, that is the core of the issue.

we can see how difficult it is for muslims in Malaysia to even give the word 'Tuhan" to non-muslims but only 'tuhan'...

there is no difference in the level of seriousness between the two scenarios above for muslims...they may even die for that

you can forget about logic and justice here...


Posted by stockraider > May 16, 2021 12:40 PM | Report Abuse

The key points of the conflict is:

Why Jeruselam must be palestine capital & not Israel leh ?

News & Blogs

2021-05-16 12:30 | Report Abuse

all are muslim brother le...malaysia leader have more concern for rohingya & uighurs than their own discriminated non muslims le...

justice is bullshit le...

News & Blogs

2021-05-16 12:28 | Report Abuse

people like sslee are masked mens whose only intentions is short term political gain as if fighting for greater cause & ethics....this is hypocrisy....pure bullshit le

there is no way out then war le...

News & Blogs

2021-05-16 12:26 | Report Abuse

Its stup*dity to have mercy over palestinian even when their childrens are killed le...

its is because these Hamas intentionally place them at their military centres to shield...

Hamas have no regrets for their death as they think death by jihad will reward you better after life

they keep reproducing to increase their population in order to dominate others le...

do not be the sparrowhawk that innocently rears cuckoo's chicks which will eventually kill its own...

cuckoos are asshole birds le...

News & Blogs

2021-05-16 11:42 | Report Abuse

this simple logic even a 5 year old of any non muslim can answer, but not even ONE educated muslim out of over 1.8 billion muslims in the world would say its wrong...

Posted by gohkimhock > May 16, 2021 11:39 AM | Report Abuse

can someone tell me is it alright to send thousands of rockets into population centers targeting innocent civilians?

News & Blogs

2021-05-16 11:13 | Report Abuse

Kyou, glove makers does not contribute anything to LCT

sslee, if glut is foreseen in the future, LCT would not be rushing to place the LINE at Indonesia

News & Blogs

2021-05-16 11:06 | Report Abuse

the difference between LCT and other commodity (steel, copper, palm oil etc) bull run is that the former is driven directly by end user demand, whereas the latter is by supply constraints / bottle necks which has yet to effect end user consumption pricing

latter may not be sustainable (short lived) unlike the former

News & Blogs

2021-05-16 10:55 | Report Abuse

uncle smart this time...not a pandemic stock or a recovery stock...but a bull cycle turnaround stock

News & Blogs

2021-05-15 20:14 | Report Abuse

looking at how bias a country can be purely from religious interest without any involvement directly (malaysia)...they have done this repeatedly for their so called muslim brothers (Rohingya, Uyghur etc)...

I see the only way forward is war....there is no way you can talk logic and justice

You will be surprised that more death happened in such a peace loving country as china vs the entire world...greater than world war 2

its hard wired in our blood - to bully others when we are strong and to fight when we are suppressed...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_by_death_toll

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/36/Wars_by_Death_Toll_Chart.jpg

war is inevitable looks like - LETS FIGHT!

News & Blogs

2021-05-15 15:36 | Report Abuse

just like muslims were thought from young to see others as kafirs....its very difficult for your brains to see things rationally

News & Blogs

2021-05-15 15:34 | Report Abuse

science le...trojan horse is your papa & mama conditioning of yourself to be biased on gwailou...

News & Blogs

2021-05-15 15:30 | Report Abuse

its very clear, as proven by Israel and being proven by U.S, malaysia should go all out vaccination like how Israel did in just 2 months (10million).... get the best vaccine and give maximum priority to speed and efficacy....

every day delay..the country loosing its edge against other south east asian country

News & Blogs

2021-05-15 15:06 | Report Abuse

Reduced viral load
...................

About 63% of them were vaccinated. Only about 11% had asymptomatic infections, the research team found at the time. Those who got both doses of either Pfizer/BioNtech's or Moderna's vaccine were 90% less likely to get a positive test and those who got only a single dose had 80% protection.

80% protection from just a single dose
.....................................

News & Blogs

2021-05-15 15:01 | Report Abuse

What's the science behind CDC's decision to say fully vaccinated people don't need masks?

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/14/health/cdc-guidelines-vaccinated-science/index.html

The study found that real-life use of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines provided 94% protection for the front-line workers immunized at the beginning of the vaccine rollout. A single dose provided 82% protection, the CDC-led team reported in the agency's weekly report, the MMWR.

It was the findings from the new study, on top of earlier studies, that pushed CDC to decide to loosen its advice on who needs to wear a mask and when, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said.

"This report provided the most compelling information to date that COVID-19 vaccines were performing as expected in the real world," Walensky said in a statement Friday.

"COVID-19 vaccines are effective at preventing COVID-19 disease, especially severe illness and death," CDC says on its new web page describing guidance for the fully vaccinated.

"COVID-19 vaccines reduce the risk of people spreading COVID-19."

News & Blogs

2021-05-15 14:15 | Report Abuse

Neighbour Philippines said on Friday it was aiming to secure 40 million doses of the Pfizer/Biotech vaccine, in what could be its first supply agreement

.......

all countries waking up.....by the time Malaysia open eyes, all sold out le...

News & Blogs

2021-05-15 13:26 | Report Abuse

if you seek vote by majority arabs who are majority muslims on land dispute, biasness is 100% certain in favor of palestenian..

they should learn to give to other religion