TL;DR:
If you buy along consensus and be right; it's priced in. No upside rewards
If you buy along consensus and be wrong; you will be bludgeon.
If you buy against consensus and be wrong; it's priced in. It's at it's bottom anyway.
If you buy against consensus and be right; the upside rewards; has no limits.

Where's the opportunities? In discovering the details/information that consensus do not that have.
Not in a minute you think that Research House knows it all...They don't! Remember the CIMB analyst that wrote an article right after short term loan refinancing TP28sen and quickly changed it's TP to 15sen after CIMB sold their stakes. If the CIMB is efficient; the fella who is responsible for that decision should be shot behind the barns. Yeah, in the market; the are alot of fools like that. In fact; if you bet against Research House; you have 7-3 odds winning. However, you can fact check information they gather. But draw your own conclusion. They are wrong to TP 60sen or 61sen. The correct TP should be 80-90sen at PE 15; but 15sen to 90sen jump; that would make even Warren Buffet himself jealous.

Sooooo, they are waiting the Claire announcement before fair value of TP 80sen.
Wouldn't that be too late? =D

P.S. I suspect Claire re-deployment will not happen. Not until Woodside accepts the verdict and pays the compensation. Because if Claire is re-deployed; court may significantly reduce the compensation amount.

To add on RW, the market is inefficient. If it does, Armada should nvr priced 15sen. And Yinson, nothing more than RM4.50. To price Armada at 15sen with core operating profit of 1.5sen per quarter and annualized EPS 6sen translates into PE 2.5. That's ludacris.

These are public known info. When the price plunged was because Armada could potentially get to PN17 if it's not able to meet it's short term loan financing. But, orderbook of RM20bil with RM10bil extension; would it be a common sense for any lender to want a piece of it? Why would it even be a concern. I will bury company that loses 20sen for every dollar it makes any time. But not company that makes 15-20% margin with confirmed orderbook of RM20Bil. Core operating profit of 70-100mil a quarter. No way man. I'm gonna ride on it.

So, the opportunity lies in betting against the consensus and be right. If the consensus is in agreement with the facts and details; whatever price it's selling is priced in it's future earnings. E.g. Yinson. PE40. Do you know what does that means? it's trading 40 years ahead of it's annual earnings. 40 years. Who does that? That gross extrapolation of history. Just because it's revenue and profit grew 5%-10% perannum warrants you to buy an piece of earnings 40 years later and make money out of it? Hahaha....Good luck with that. AFAIK, shit that hit Armada's fan can hit Yinson's too.

Here's the fact for Armada, before the whole shit show; it was trading at 75-90sen with 14.5bil debts with so so income. Now, it's trading at 50sen with half the debts and stronger core operating profits and better margin; If market is efficient; it would have priced Armada back at 80sen tomorrow. The only reason that it's not is because it's not efficient. That's where all opportunity to make/lose money lies at. (Yeah, you can buy a piece of earnings 40 years later that very likely never come. If it does; you won't live long enough to enjoy it anyway)

IK, so what If u sailang....
If u warren buffet or KYU then it makes a difference...

Wait 4pm, EPF come sapu again. Then IDSS straight up the trees once more.

I will happy If Its just 7-8m revenue with 1-2mil profit.

Historically, VIS will start to rally 1-2 weeks before QR and follow through another 1-2wks.

Now at pretty bottom. Just buy and wait and see.

I think friday will rebound anticipating favorable outcome.

This company, every Q1 don't work one...

I discovered something very peculier about this company in 2019.

2017, VIS used 11mil worth of inventories to make 31mil revenue.
2018, VIS used 15mil worth of inventories to make 41 mil revenue.

2019, VIS only used about 2mil worth of inventories but generated 17 mil revenue.

The business dynamics has changed. I suspect because trade war, they position themselves as middleman than manufacturer. Middle person trading between China and US as proxy. That explains low inventories turnover and relatively bad margins. Easy money for the business.

61mil market cap, you own 43mil worth of current asset and 50.4mil total asset. Total Equity of 40.4mil. You only paid extra 21mil.

why gooshen appears here?

can wait then wait. Can't wait then sell....if price dips, collects!

distribution starts 80sens onwards when people are all crazy over armada over it's solid performance.

Now, people are still skeptical about Armada's 3 quarters solid performance. When they finally accepts, the operators will happily distributes theirs share at 80-90sen. Now is more like collection phase for next up.

Zzz....queue at 51 sen...didn't get shit...

Funny, gross margin improved from 29% to 30%. The drop in revenue could be cyclical. But PAT reduced because one off 1.8mil listing expenses registered under admin expenses. People sell like no tomorrow.

Can safely assume that there are no investors here unlike Hibiscus. Poor QR. Price hold very well as investors are well informed about planned shutdown for maintenance.

I only know ARBB announce subdivision of shares daily. 1.4B....Wait until finish first, then come back also not too late.

Time for some profit taking when it does. And get ready to buy back in when Woodside annouces it's appeal. That's my tips for quick bucks.

Nothing to do with Armada...As long as core operating profits is there...Nothing to be concern...

However, it does affect Armada's customer. But as long as above certain price; it's all OK.

Wait EPF come sapu again when profit taking over.

USD285mil. About 1bil.

hopefully, it drops

70sen - 15sen drop is unwarranted.
Fundamental wasn’t them bad. Market overreacted.

Now it’s good, should at least return back to the price before it dropped to be fair. Now proven prospect is good. PE 15 on annualised EPS 6 gives 90sen. That’s only 1/3 of Yinson’s PE.

Not gonna happen....i will sell when the CEO resigns.

Unlike the previous management; I call him sohai left and right. Really hated him. But not this management. This CEO and his team is good. It seems they gel very well to get things done.

Only got more good news.

whole market red sea..

Zzz..timing

Mikekim, u r my hero. Without ur sharing, I would be so confident to buy in every dip.

U chase also tak sempat. Gap up 60c!

Rockettttttttttt!

Pecahhhhhh!

Got one type come from lalaland that claims they bought day low and sell day high.

Just scared operators didn't collect enough shares.

Then they hv less power.

Math question of the year:

0.255 => 0.22 => 0.355
0.355 => 0.32 => 0.495
0.495 => 0.42 => 0.555
0.555 => 0.52 => 0.685

Tmr rebound like last time....hehehehe

Lazy to call another sohai's lie la. This place is full of stupid people like that.

Same Mabel I cancel my 48 and 50c queue...but forgot to cancel 52sen...hahahaha

MingGoon, one quarter of +ve result with less than 1% profit margin....Abit too hard sell dy gua...
ahhaha

Someone kena margin call...

where exactly was ur queue i3lurkers? How many lots. Talk shit la you. =D

And it always works...

pang72, u mean FPSO grow wings and fly? akkakakaa

QR so near already...if +ve, limit up like Alam. 65sen. Take profit now mar very stupid.

sychan, u very hardcore la...

Pullback abit, so that can go up higher mar...

Pull back abit, so that people got chance to buy...pull back abit pleaseeee....

strong support....c'mon...

panda, u r good...U right on Alam. See if u will be right on Hibiscus

@superpanda, great call. I think i should be easy 20% return. Good for you.
we shall see how the market reacts

Still no dip...dammit...

Leslie reliable source was never reliable...

So, I hope it is this time...

Panda....that’s super true...long way still...

Armada join the wagon 30c to 1.44 too...

My problem is I buy 20c, 30c, 40c, 50c, now regret why didn't one shot buy everything at 20c.

Make alot less...well, who now it could go the other way....

I say same retracement next week and buy on dip also kena bomb by the bounce to become ran jiao....hahahhaha

2million shares in a minute...for few minutes...

Don't think retailers eh...

Retailers dumb dumb wait 0.505 whole day never matched...Including myself...hahahhaha

I think got 1.2Billion shares for conversion still... and u expect market happily absorbs them?