以史为鉴：历史上最大的贸易战造成了灾难后果
腾讯证券2018-04-06 06:06:23
腾讯证券讯 据美国财经媒体CNBC报道，美国总统特朗普看起来正准备发动一场贸易战，但总结这类贸易战的历史，可以发现赢家基本很少。

经济学家们发出警告：特朗普做的太过分，其他国家会反击，这不可避免地会让全球贸易走上一条螺旋式的报复之路。在特朗普首次宣布发动贸易战的约一个月后，我们看到第一批信号开始出现。

周二，特朗普公布了一份对中国进口商品征税的目标商品清单，不到24小时后，中国政府宣布对106个美国产品征收新关税。一旦新关税法案生效，没有人确切知道将会发生什么。但如果以史为鉴，我们可以做出一个很好的预测。

在过去的80年里，发生了许多次贸易战。上世纪80年代，里根对日本征收了相当大的关税。在90年代，各国同意在世界贸易组织(wto)框架下制定更严格的规则。 再近些时日，美国前总统小布什(George W. Bush)在2002年实施了钢铁关税。他遭到了来自欧洲贸易伙伴的报复威胁。不久之后，他取消了关税。

回顾上世纪30年代，美国正对内实行保护主义政策，政府限制与其他国家的贸易。为了挽救美国的工厂，一些国会议员提出了一个计划，这个计划被正式命名为1930年的关税法案，但它更广为人知的名称是：斯姆特-霍利关税法。

（斯姆特-霍利关税法于1930年经签署成为法律，该法案将2000多种的进口商品关税提升到历史最高水平。当时在美国，有1028名经济学家签署了一项请愿书抵制该法案；而在该法案通过之后，许多国家对美国采取了报复性关税措施，使美国的进口额和出口额都骤降50%以上。）

这个计划遭到许多人的反对，但最终成为法律。该法案提高了美国进口商品的关税，使其达到接近历史最高水平。但它非但没有重振经济，反而加剧了大萧条。

当时全世界都在打价格战。欧洲国家对美国商品征税，从而减缓了美国和欧洲之间的贸易步伐。这使得美国更难走出经济衰退。民族主义言论升温，各国纷纷指责他国，所有这些最终都升级了，然后第二次世界大战开始了，一场贸易战争变成了一场真正的战争。

这就是为什么在战争结束后，各国组建了世界贸易组织来规范国际贸易。各国希望20世纪30年代全球贸易战的悲剧不再重演。

再回到当下，支持特朗普的关键力量之一是美国工人。因此，他对重振美国工厂的努力并不令人感到意外。

尽管特朗普的关税计划可能会对他的美国工人支持者有吸引力，但其他一些和特朗普在同一条船上的团体也在公开反对特朗普。美国企业，如汽车制造商和啤酒制造商等进口钢铁企业，都要求特朗普重新考虑这个计划。在贸易战计划宣布之后，特朗普的首席经济顾问加里-科恩(Gary Cohn)离开了白宫。现在，来自共和党的议员们恳求他不要这样做。

华尔街对这个计划也不太满意。当特朗普在3月1日首次宣布征收关税时，道琼斯指数下跌了400多点。当中国表示要报复时，道琼斯工业平均指数下降了400点。尽管遭到越来越多的反对，特朗普还是继续他的计划。（风生）

Though I bought quite some at .89, n .915.....but my average still .97 ... didn’t. It earn yet... hmmm

Going up!!! Good good!!

EDL compensation?? Tht one comfirm pass la..... part of foreign affair... what Pakatan knows about? Heng Ah!

Huat ah!!!!!!!!

IElurker, I respect your guts. I kena their fear factor gun yesterday, bought .89 then stop there...bukima...

I buy myself sharing is wrong? Then why not you mention it to all IB analyst who call buy with their media??? So following u is right?? Asking everyone to sell and dampening our economy is right?? Who is there talking as if like a GOD here??

Lucky to have matched .89 yesterday, and matched some .905 let’s see. Average .96..

Trump is changing his tone and manner, decided to negotiate with china and put on hold for all tax tariff added. . .

欧盟：反对任何有违世界贸易组织规则的贸易措施
新华社2018-04-05 00:17:15

新华社布鲁塞尔4月4日电(记者田栋栋甘春) 欧盟委员会发言人丹尼尔·罗萨里奥4日在新闻发布会上说，欧盟注意到美国公布了依据“301调查”拟加征关税的中国商品建议清单，反对任何有违世界贸易组织规则的贸易措施。

罗萨里奥当天在回答新华社记者提问时表示，欧盟自美国去年8月启动“301调查”以来一直紧密跟踪调查进展。在美国公布所有细节后，欧盟将会展开进一步分析调查。

罗萨里奥强调，贸易措施需要在世界贸易组织框架内实施，世贸组织本身就为解决贸易争端提供了多种工具。罗萨里奥同时呼吁，相关各方应确保自身贸易行为符合世贸组织规定，欧盟将对已采取的贸易措施是否符合世贸组织规定展开进一步研究。

美国东部时间3日，依据“301调查”结果，美国贸易代表办公室公布了建议加征关税的中国商品清单，涉及每年从中国进口约1300种、价值约500亿美元的商品。

中国商务部新闻发言人表示，美方这一措施明显违反了世界贸易组织相关规则，严重侵犯中方根据世界贸易组织规则享有的合法权益，威胁中方经济利益和安全。

对于美国违反国际义务对中国造成的紧急情况，为捍卫中方自身合法权益，中国政府依据《中华人民共和国对外贸易法》等法律法规和国际法基本原则，将对原产于美国的大豆等农产品、汽车、化工品、飞机等进口商品对等采取加征关税措施，税率为25%，涉及2017年中国自美国进口金额约500亿美元。

欧盟：反对任何有违世界贸易组织规则的贸易措施
新华社2018-04-05 00:17:15

新华社布鲁塞尔4月4日电(记者田栋栋甘春) 欧盟委员会发言人丹尼尔·罗萨里奥4日在新闻发布会上说，欧盟注意到美国公布了依据“301调查”拟加征关税的中国商品建议清单，反对任何有违世界贸易组织规则的贸易措施。

罗萨里奥当天在回答新华社记者提问时表示，欧盟自美国去年8月启动“301调查”以来一直紧密跟踪调查进展。在美国公布所有细节后，欧盟将会展开进一步分析调查。

罗萨里奥强调，贸易措施需要在世界贸易组织框架内实施，世贸组织本身就为解决贸易争端提供了多种工具。罗萨里奥同时呼吁，相关各方应确保自身贸易行为符合世贸组织规定，欧盟将对已采取的贸易措施是否符合世贸组织规定展开进一步研究。

美国东部时间3日，依据“301调查”结果，美国贸易代表办公室公布了建议加征关税的中国商品清单，涉及每年从中国进口约1300种、价值约500亿美元的商品。

中国商务部新闻发言人表示，美方这一措施明显违反了世界贸易组织相关规则，严重侵犯中方根据世界贸易组织规则享有的合法权益，威胁中方经济利益和安全。

对于美国违反国际义务对中国造成的紧急情况，为捍卫中方自身合法权益，中国政府依据《中华人民共和国对外贸易法》等法律法规和国际法基本原则，将对原产于美国的大豆等农产品、汽车、化工品、飞机等进口商品对等采取加征关税措施，税率为25%，涉及2017年中国自美国进口金额约500亿美元。

To go in at low or not Is on you guys I do my part for sharing and let u know I am buying bit by bit.

Another round applause to you Trader!!!well done!!!

Happy Trader I am giving you a round of applause..... if it goes on, the fall of share market will seriously affected our economy, economy crisis won’t do any good to election, ... Here’s the catch,

Malaysia as a ‘one belt one road’ benefited country has the status quo... we have imported many from china and export some back to Europe and US market...

With the Trade war on the go, production cost for manufacturing will increase for sure.. then inflation... then... we all know what could happen... it will be very ugly, again.... Would that happen??? Happy Trader you think you won’t be affected???

Reason why I sold my vixx, because i would rather believe more in economy growing rather than wishing the crisis to come... thus round applause to you again Happy Trader. Ppl try putting out fire but you are there happily setting fire on it... well done!

Some more MRCB fundamental is good a GLc some more well done!! Thanks you again for treating me like a kid, I admit it for I love the country investing in my country’s GLC. I do call sell sometime... but not like this Happy Trader, have some ethic would you?

Guys don’t fail to hope... hold on there and let the big guy play ... go with the flow.. thts all I can say.

Our PM should and will do something because economy crisis during Election period will be very very bad

EPF has the responsibility to safe guard our retirement fund, is understanding they dumb it at this moment. I would worry if they don’t....

Anyway I am still holding not selling at the moment, when I invested into a businesses I hold and go along when it meet a crisis... and most of the time I pump more... after all we still need to eat, work, drink, and sleep in a house don’t we?

NateM, thanks for your advice .... if tomoro it goes all the way down to .8 my earning all will be gone... if it matches what Happy Trader said MRCB goes down to .5 it would also mean the crash of KLCI down to 1650 somewhere...then maybe guys the whole economy in Malaysia might crash all together no matter MRCB or not... nothing survive... even you don’t invest in share market, you will lose your job your business seriously affected, bank will come take back the loan, and more lands and houses go Lelong... wahahaha truly welcome to economy crisis....

WOULD THAT HAPPEN? IS IT HAPPENNING?? MUACKS LIVE FREE DIE WELL ... buy some gold my friend. . .

I lose mean I lose no matter by luck or unfortunate...I always wanna ask does Trade war could be predicted from the chart?

Alright la you win I admit, so I buy bit now can... bit by bit...

Yup my earning from 20% down to 10% still earning, and my fund still here see who lol till end. I sold my vixx for reason ... I knew it would come. MRCB glc construction sector, how it could be affected by trade war??? Today downturn is due to trade war!

.895 matched!! :pp trade war

My average now .985!!!! Woohoo....

I previously sold at 1.25... now still earning ya thanks for your concern.. why u still sounded so worried??? Hahahahaha guys Happy trader is seriously affected!!!! Buy bit by bit from now, buy call buy .... hahahaha

SamuelLuke Happy trader what does the news got to do with MRCB would you elaborate more??? Say now we speculate china Crec or Cccc won the project you meant MRCB won’t get the PDP job???
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1742150/
04/04/2018 13:54

I did ask ya .... hahaha I know who u are, I will be happy to see ya lose ya job buy all the way down hahahaha

Yeah hooray Happy Trader won .95 can get?? Hehehe ...

Lol

Tee xian that’s a very wrong understanding in fact most Chinese like their name they just don’t like ppl to write it wrongly or pronounce understand it wrongly... thus they came out with Christian name that could ease the pain, it has been long practiced since the day of the Tang Dynasty, the emperor name 李世明 Simon Lee, the great poetic 李白 （White李） real name 字太白，。。张飞（the three kingdom ) Fat Zhang, real name 字益德。。

Happy trader what does the news got to do with MRCB would you elaborate more??? Say now we speculate china Crec or Cccc won the project you meant MRCB won’t get the PDP job???
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1742150/

Hahahaha This happy guy will b sacked with us around hahahaha ... losing big time, and those come in now will be benefitted more.

Ok la, since you want me sell so badly, I promise I will sell mine at 1.1 ok?? Hehehe is a sure thing isn’t it? Let me buy a bit at .95 today first....

....syndicate....big funded sysdicate he must be... hmmm... hmmm... he is here only for one reason.... everybody knows....hmmm hehehe...

Very suspicious this guy!! Guys should we buy more when Happy trader call sell?? Should we sell while he disappear then?? Poor thing, must have kena big time from his boss... hahahaha ...

You must be trend, only trend can give me this kind of fun.... ah I miss you so much !!

我之前都赢钱哪里可能怕？哈哈哈。。有意思。。

我们不卖的话你会被炒鱿鱼哦？哈哈哈 你真的很可疑哦。。。呵呵呵好好玩啊 你笨笨的。

Yalor my average Is .99, if not because of you it should be lower... haiz u make me scared.... so scared... So this tomorro .95 coming ?? Like I said I have previously sold mine once at 1.25... so now very itchy....

Those listen Calvin loss maybe but not me... hahaha .95 !!!!

Fuyoh.95 .95!!!! Woohoo I am waiting!!!

Tony now ppl want whack u d... no eye see ...

PPL like Happy trader is everywhere....you go in any counter forum you will meet some there.....and they always talk as if the are the expert, they are better than analyst...... Some are better i believe...hahaha, so.....Thanks for your sharing Happy Trader...you just have to try harder, ...

I shall keep quiet now for the critical moment.... my friends do not fail to have faith in what you have studied. I am still holding and still buying bit by bit. We shall see.

yawn.... up down up down... still like that...i still have 50% fund dont know want go in now or wait till tht .8 to come...hmmm... How ah??

Have no worries... This one counter has been seriously taken care of. . .

I hold tight tight for dividen to come

Hidup hidup umno!! Woohoo money money home! I love PM !! Teexian!!

Yeah I never grow up!! I am 18yrs old!!! Woohoo forever young !

Yeah as expected!! Happy trader came back hahaha...wah so nice pity me some more... my average still .99 oh hahahaha so previous earning from this counter is .25 cents means only MRCB become a .8 counter only I will feel little bit pain oh woohoo.... hahaha

Haiz.... break .8 d .... shout cry...beg....scold to TF will no use.... this fella now only come out with the ‘kiss the luggage campaign’ .... u are slow. !!! Look at the share price now !!! Where is your old days glory?? You were the person I look up to.....haiz...

Friday buy rate was 60% with 14mills volumes plus...buy up to 1.03...today ..sell down to .985~.99...with volume 5 mills plus now at the moment...operator is losing big time oh like that...hahaha ...thts why i call it a risky counter... good good lets see.

Shhhh quietly buy quietly support ahjib gor. . . Hahaha

Aiyo, no move hahahaha window dressing?? You guys want sell back again?? Those critics no come out blow de?? Even Calvin also Diam saje??? Hahaha