The strong basis is exceptional dividend yield

I want to replicate my success in UP here base on one thing.

Dividend in Q3 should be more yoy. Q4 will be even better. Next year potentially better than 2023. I tell you before the analyst report 😁

lmao. Exit policy 🤣 This is a smart question. dam82, if it reaches 40, I'll research to find the reason to justify the price. If I cannot justify, I will suspect I overlook something, because this is UP. 😂 To avoid this trouble, I hope it to be stay at current price at least after long CNY break. Let us rest for a while. We old people should not get excited everyday.

Surprisingly bullish 😁

dam82, are you going to have carlsberg tonight?

Aiya, 60 sen not bad lah. Not too far from my initial guess of 80 sen. That means final dividend will be more loh. No worry. This is a good stock. Still better than average. Next year performance may be better. Bonus issue is good if you are not going to get odd lot.

RM 1.20 is very possible.

Dividend RM 1 I guess.

If I were the boss, I am inclined to borrow the money to pay extra dividend if I can get a term loan at 3% interest rate or lower. But I am not the boss. And I think the boss knows more than I in recognizing what are the right things to do.

How about dam82?

Coming dividend I predict 80 sen to 100 sen in total, likely to be at the lower side. Final dividend to be the same. Share valuation wise, it will remain high despite the same amount of dividend.

@KClow, I thought I saw you somewhere in a company's agm. Forget it if you are so pantang to be greeted here.

Hi KClow, were you in coconut business long time ago?

@Tlc. Definitely

@Thirai Thiraviam. Happy to see your response and your thoughts. In the end all the thoughts must be summed up to EPS and DPS forecast in order to give yourself (ourselves) a clear buy, hold, or sell decision. So, based on your best knowledge in Inno, what would be the EPS and DPS for FY2024? After that I will respond in which areas you had not mentioned.

You're right, Fabien. There are at least 3 wonderful things about Inno. First, talk about the land. Land concession is until 2073. It had been extended before, and will be again in future. Company like UP needs to pay for the land as quite a lot of it are leasehold. This cost is recognized as amortization. Comparing this to the rental Inno is paying despite the fact that Inno owns no land, one will find that the "effective cost to use the land" for Inno is a significantly less (RM 1.83 per ha per year or RM 3.40 if you want to assign 0 cost to the land planted with laran trees and move all the cost to the oil palm plantation). The 2nd wonderful thing is this FY2024 EPS and DPS. I would like to get your view on that. Let's see if we got the same figure.

This is a complicated-to-analyze stock so I think it could be risky for you. When I ask myself more questions I found it to be relatively more "challenging" and "tricky" to value this stock. Maybe someone know it better than me so the price keep on dropping. Sometime market could be right while we could be wrong.

Cheap1, because people look at the past where both EPS and DPS were in downtrend.

My view on Inno? Big U turn (going up) for both EPS and Div. Annual DY above 8% at current price if CPO can maintain 3,800.

Nice to meet you. I would like to refrain from giving my personal information because it is not relevant to our discussion. I am not sure what exactly you want to know but I'd be happy to help where I could. But remember I am not your friend and I could be wrong sometime so please be very careful.

Please introduce your mama first. 😄

小荷才露尖尖角，早有蜻蜓立上头。

Wah, you so straight forward ah 🤣. Rafizi asked the same question. I'll consider buying a lot of others when one day become Lee Ka Seng.

2.25 sen brother. 12.5% increase yoy. More to come. Soon the share price will exceed RM 2 because dividend will be very high this year.

I changed my mind, I am a member now after discovering more 😃.

Very good Q1 result. Both EPS and DPS are considerably higher yoy. Next UP, maybe.

Aiyo, wait for me, wait for me

Another one month or two it will become "tourist spot" and re-pricing to RM 15 within 2 years. If Guocera is sold off then this will happen sooner.

So quiet, I think I come back here after 2 months.

More exciting than action movie.

This effect of productivity improvement thanks to mechanization is a common phenomenon among large plantations (such as IOI & Sime Darby), not UP alone, if you follow the news.

~ Sardin, 27 Apr 2024

Invest while the forum is quiet. How to maximize return? Be the early birds that discover the change of wind, and take actions. Stingy boss? Becoming generous boss? Time will tell. Will patience be rewarded? Will trust be disappointed? Time will tell. It could be never happen, or it could be really soon. The waiting is the suffering that you need to pay to be in the game.

Please recall excessive heat started quite some time before FEB 2024 and so the effect manifest in FEB 2024.

Hi Observatory, the extraordinary dip of production in Feb 2024 was likely due to El Nino. But rainfall improves in Mar. That's not the explanation from UP, but my own belief based on info collection from various references. Exceptionally good 2H23 (vs year 2022) was mainly due to resolve of labour shortage.

My findings:
Good weather makes more good to efficient plantations than mediocre plantations. Bad weather makes more damage to efficient plantations than mediocre plantations. Pray for good weather.

Hi Mooven, I can't recall any question regarding to labour. In AR2023 you can see UP hires thousands of guest workers, and it mentioned for the first time they have more than enough labours. "...tireless efforts by our HRSS Department in bringing in 781 new Guest Workers through our Ethical Recruitment Procedures during the year. As I write this message, I can confidently state that we for the first time in years are ahead of our respective work." page 23 AR2023.
programmes.

I would like to start with my opinion and conclusion. There is hardly or no any information in the AGM that you can use to speculate the share price. In my opinion, the AR and QR can give you a better idea if you want to set a target price for the share.

The AGM started with a presentation by Dato' Carl Bek-Nielsen. All the content can be found in UP website and AR2023. It is good for less sophisticated people who do not read reports, but no new information for those who read the reports. I would like to say that this is very fair to people who are unable to attend. So UP is very transparent and thoughtful to feed all you need to know and "can know" through the published annual report at your convenience to read it miles away.

After the presentation is the Q&A session. As my fingers are slow I just rely on my ears and brain to record. I could be a biased listener and am an old man. So bear in mind this when I try to recall something.

1. Will UP make more profit in 2024? "Time will tell" said DCBN.
2. Is EPS and DPS uptrend going to last? "Don't be too greedy." "It is dangerous to be too greedy." "The trees do not grow to heaven." "Don't push too hard lah... (everybody laugh)"
3. Expansion? Buy more land? More capex? Cannot tell even if there is such a plan to avoid competition in the bidding. "We don't want to have 10 times land bank but make only half the profit (or profit margin?)."

Other questions and answers are not so important / does not give really useful information (at least for me). I think I missed some of it too. If given a chance to be transported to the AGM via time portal, what would you want to ask? Maybe your question and help me to recall something.

I thought you were there. You wore the UP t-shirt right?

Hold your shares tightly. For those who want to buy, the trees do not grow to heaven so plan carefully. I am surprised that Dato Carl Bek-Nielsen can speak very good Malay. Someone asked me to give a hint if it is good to buy before ex-date. Well, Q1 report is released by end of the day of AGM, so I think it is better to answer after reading the Q1 report. And after reading the Q1 report, it is already end of before ex-date. I think the dates are set by the management with the intention of giving us the opportunity to be fully informed before we decide to buy or sell, the time given is not more or less and is just enough.

This counter trading volume is very low and because of this its share price is depressed and this put minor shareholders in great disadvantages. I think the major shareholder should take care of the minor shareholders by making the share price to be at least reflecting the value of the business. This can be done by simply paying higher regular dividend as all the business under HLIND are already at matured and saturated stage. Holding back too much money is not fair to minor shareholders. This monies belong to every shareholders and so please pay it out.

Is the big boss going to be stingy or generous in paying final dividend this time? I hope all the loyal shareholders get what they deserve. We don't mind the CEO to get a good pay but other shareholders should be rewarded also and given a FULL AND FAIR share of the profit in the form of dividend.

@BudiLee, check the contract note you received

Going to RM 28. 😄

Wah. Very good harvest woh. Very good surprise!

UP did a risk assessment, I forgot which page on the annual report. Weather / climate has a rating associated to high risk and high impact besides the commodity price. I hope the contracted price had more than enough to adverse the impact of lower production. But I also know it is difficult to get a good deal / price stroke a few months back when effect of El Nino is not yet manifested. I believe there is a margin squeeze, hope it is a light one.

@Observatory
The El Nino effect in 2024 is expected to be at moderate level, and of course it will push up the CPO price.
However, the high price of CPO is meant to compensate the reduction of output. If output is low, production cost per metric ton will be higher (assuming constant fixed cost, such as salaries, chemicals, etc.) and if the selling price is not high enough, it will squeeze the profit margin considerably.
How much this will affect UP, I am not confident to answer and I am far from being a professional trader.
But when I water my plants, and hang my clothes, phew... the weather is really really hot, I could feel the abnormal amount of heat. If this is only "moderate" I don't know how a serious El Nino feels like? My trees do not bear good fruits compares to a few months back, a lot less fruits and smaller fruits are what I got.

Not sure if output with catch up in Q2 because El Nino effect is known to be lasting for months / years. RM 3,800 / MT in Q3 a bit too much of the discount compares to BMD FCPO in Jul, Aug, Sep.

It can be summarised into 2 main points:
1. Selling cpo considerably below market value
2. Lesser cpo output
And looks like both are going to happen together. Besides that there are a few more things I try to figure out.