@BudiLee, check the contract note you received

Going to RM 28. 😄

Wah. Very good harvest woh. Very good surprise!

UP did a risk assessment, I forgot which page on the annual report. Weather / climate has a rating associated to high risk and high impact besides the commodity price. I hope the contracted price had more than enough to adverse the impact of lower production. But I also know it is difficult to get a good deal / price stroke a few months back when effect of El Nino is not yet manifested. I believe there is a margin squeeze, hope it is a light one.

@Observatory
The El Nino effect in 2024 is expected to be at moderate level, and of course it will push up the CPO price.
However, the high price of CPO is meant to compensate the reduction of output. If output is low, production cost per metric ton will be higher (assuming constant fixed cost, such as salaries, chemicals, etc.) and if the selling price is not high enough, it will squeeze the profit margin considerably.
How much this will affect UP, I am not confident to answer and I am far from being a professional trader.
But when I water my plants, and hang my clothes, phew... the weather is really really hot, I could feel the abnormal amount of heat. If this is only "moderate" I don't know how a serious El Nino feels like? My trees do not bear good fruits compares to a few months back, a lot less fruits and smaller fruits are what I got.

Not sure if output with catch up in Q2 because El Nino effect is known to be lasting for months / years. RM 3,800 / MT in Q3 a bit too much of the discount compares to BMD FCPO in Jul, Aug, Sep.

It can be summarised into 2 main points:
1. Selling cpo considerably below market value
2. Lesser cpo output
And looks like both are going to happen together. Besides that there are a few more things I try to figure out.

Hi GS, try search on small plantation company

It is OK as I don't want to create fear.

Hi Ooi, mind to have a private detailed discussion?

Harvest in Feb was bad. Hope it would be better in Mar.

Please drop to 23, I wanna collect. Please please.

Quite bullish. Even if production has reduced.

They didn't push hard enough recently.

BudiLee, wish you could share the analysis on UP

Anyone know where to find the daily CPO price in Indonesia?

That is a good news.

Hi Jr, your pay check is quite late. It is already 5th Mar.

JrWarren, if a good kalong guni dividend stock can be priced at 6% dividend yield rating, how much should we rate UP?

And when they stand and chat...
Aunty: Which is the best plantation company in Malaysia?
Fund Manager: United Plantation
Aunty: Then you got buy or not?
Fund Manager: ...
Embarrasing right?

UP has gained eyeballs of everyone. Many started and/or had completed their homework. Now they need sometime to "accept the new prices". Just like you go to pasar malam, some savvy persons just go one round and compare prices before they finally come to a store to do the purchase, even if they already know how much they are willing to pay. Not all of them are like that, but considerably a lot of them. And then they will buy, because they know that guavas are still reasonably priced. Don't get surprised if a fund manager do that besides many ordinary people.

Even funds, a lot of them are short to mid-term investors, don't really believe they are long-term investors, because of "pressure in their lives". Even they are able to see further than you, they are tied by "pressure in their lives" to do their best. You have the advantage of strategy if you understand this and yourself.

I can only say that it is still worth to sell your oil palm plantation and put the money in UP, shut the computer and go for your holidays, and you'll be good. So what does it mean? You may ask, why myself is sitting in front of computer? I'm just telling that even if you do as I said you'll still be good and happy for the rest of your time.

This is the "coffee break", bro. Short and brief. Like how it is said, probably just a cup of coffee and and curry puff. You know what is going to happen next.

Let's celebrate UP becoming a member of 10 billion Ringgit club.

The limit of your target price is the limit of your knowledge regarding to the stock and your competitors for the shares. I changed it a several times due to this reason.

My view:
Valuation from a few different methods by myself show that RM 28 is not impossible. RM 23 is still a bargain buy.
A lot of values discovered along the way I do further research.

My prediction:
It may touch 28 faster than we expect because big capitals will compete for the shares. There is no more chance to accumulate slowly at attractive price, so they will compete with each other at fair price for remaining scarce resources. I suppose this is a kind of common phenomena that sometime happens.

This is just my speculation. To share my unproven idea before the outcome and get it proven right/wrong is my hobby.

What is known cannot be made unknown.

Now UP has become very well known. It is like a star born on the stage of Britain's Got Talent. Its valuation can never go back to before.

It will make the newspaper headline tomorrow, up RM 1.

If there are so many happy buyers go for KLK at 22, I begin to think what the hell can make UP go back to 21? What the hell? 🤣 Don't know why this mind struck me just now. I never thought of that before.

BudiLee, thank you for so generous to share the news with us. 🤣

How many days it take to reach 28? I need to know how many can of beers to buy.

@JrWarren, I don't like the private placement, it is not fair to small shareholders like me. Eventhough the dividend policy looks decent, both the oil yield and transparency / disclosure of business is still fall behind by very far. @Tanleechoo, I can't identify one, that's why I ask for idea.

We know UP is the best. Who is the 2nd best?

So quiet today. Everyone must be busy reading the report.

I love you Dato' Carl-Bek Nielsen

Good dividend

Thanks. I couldn't find it in 3rd QR so I asked.

Hope the report to be published today so that we have time to read 😀

In fact, the biggest concern should be demand for the product and profit margin. I mention these 2 only because dividend policy is crystal clear. A temporary minor production problem is a good distract to me and some of us.But I also think the management should have done better about the maintenance.

I anticipate the impact is minor because in the past 3 years the production was far from full capacity so I think temporary knock out of one old production line would not loose much sales compare to Q4. We are actually buying because of anticipated better result starts from 2H 2024. Don't forget the advanced totally brand new gas fired production line that is to be setup. If you are worried go and find in local mall any serious prolong out of stock of the crackers. Answer is NO, I have been observing for 2 months. Haha.

Ya. But it happened quite a few months ago. So they moved some of the worker to work additional night shift. That's the reason Q4 is still able to shine.The oven out because order too good it got over heated. After repaired the sales will soar higher.

Yes, it has changed to become really good, since a few quarter ago, and is still very good now. Hello everyone.

Gong Xi Fa Cai. Gaduh during cny bo ong ya. Forget the pass and look forward to future.

@KCLow, if you don't respect me then I will call you low kock creature. Your father gives you this name exactly suit you because you like to talk about kock. You are low. And is a talking creature. So the name KClow a.k.a. low kock creature. You own it. Thanks to your father.

If one doesn't have a good manner and behavior, he is nothing but a low creature no matter how much money he earns. Invest in your good manner or you will fail your life with nobody respect and love you, including your family members.

If one disagree to that then one should be happy to invest in a company that is stingy in giving out dividend. But I think most people invest in UP because div matter.

And div has BIG influence on share price. I think this is undeniable fact that most people believe, although different people value a company differently. What doesn't matter to us may be matter to a lot of other people. While other people also have their right to vote by buying / selling the shares, their action will affect the market cap or the share price.

Hi Ooi, FD 2023 paid in 2024. That's why.