Anyone know the average cost and selling price for one coconut? Couldn't find in the annual report. Appreciate if someone is able to find out.

Does anyone know Mr. Shih Chao Yuan chinese name?

Hi Peace99, the most difficult part is when some of the lab workers from overseas cant stand durian smell. And if the top management has to check the quality of the fruit personally to qualify the seedling but fainted due to the unique aroma. It may be a great torture to them.

Haha. Good guess

I think Q4 profit will be very close to Q3, maybe slightly more. Let's see.

Hi Pinky, you visited the plantation before? Need special request? They arrange the plantation tour every AGM pre-Covid years? Normally they arrange before or after the meeting?

Dear All, this year AGM will be held at Dewan Sanmarka Orang India. Any of you attended the AGM before? Was the previous AGM held at the same place? Would you please share some experience in the past AGMs. I might want to attend but it is a bit far from my place.

And it is an open secret that these speculating insiders are not the core investors (the trading volume tells). Therefore serious investors would not simply buy and sell and react in this situation. Those who are participating actively in the trading today, they are not actually the one or important roles that decide whether or not this company will thrive or doing worse.

Unless a company is a total piece of shit. Otherwise, insiders will exploit both the greed and fear of other investors. Yes they dump, but they pick up too.

I don't think so. Insiders are picking up at 3.xx. Who's dare or motivated to hold and turn the tide at current situation? Value investor like to wait further, only informed and organised large capital has the insight at what level it should get into the market and they are competing with each other to enter at this price. So that's why I think the storm is over.

I think the storm is over. Very soon a new cycle will begin.

Goody99, you're right they do not do detailed explanation. But they do mention forex loss of 13 mil in Q4. Net profit of Q4 is 8 mil. So if there were no forex loss then the profit would have been 21 mil which is still an healthy level. Also, if you divided the tax by profit before tax you'll get 39% tax rate while cukai makmur only 33%. This was only around 25% in Q3 and Q3 already accumulated more than 100 mil profit before tax. So I think FPI under estimate the tax payable in Q3 and some of these tax has to be paid in Q4, and that's why 39% in Q4. If you do the same math for Q3, the EPS disregarding the 18 mil forex gain is only around 10 sen. So I think these findings should be sufficient to calm yourself. 40% of revenue but profit (without considering forex) drops only 25% QoQ so you know the most profitable business stay.

@Uptrending, Q4 revenue dip is due to following main reasons I think: (1) switch of product from low margin product to high margin product (low margin product is normally come with huge order but low profit). That's why if you don't count FOREX lost there is actually 8.xx sen per share earning in Q4. (2) festive season in Q4 will result in lesser output (3) back log (accumulated due to difficulty to get container and and high shipping cost) has been cleared quite a lot in Q3 so Q4 revenue would not be as much as Q3. That also explained the improved inventory level. Also, inflation peaked in Q3 last year so there will be inventory value adjustment in Q4. Therefore I think EPS 35 sen per year is sustainable in 2023 and whether or not it is able to make more I guess will depend on other external factors. The following growth will be depending on the trend of smart home, application of IoT and AI, home theater (see the trend of Netflix subscriber, for example).

Insiders have the advantage to react faster. However, not everyone is smart and be able to read the meaning behind the figures. Some of them might have done the wrong decision too quickly due to this advantage. The real world is full of fun.

Hi Uptrending, looking at the figures I feel that Wistron is pulling away some order which they thought not to be shared for long-term but only temporary coorperation according to agreement. However, it seems to me that FPI is able to replace these orders with higher margin product from other customers, which is a good thing that we should be happy to see it (normally only strong product command a higher margin and strong product usually come with a brand owned by an excellent company).

I don't think so. Probably a temporary setback due to fear and confusion. But price will quickly stable between 3.30 and 3.50. If you study back a few of previous quarter report, you'll find out that earning without counting forex loss or gain is quite stable in the range of 7.xx to 10.xx sen per share, including 2022 Q4. Those who studied carefully won't get surprised and do panic sell. But there are groups of people who thought 12.xx and 17.xx sen quarter EPS were purely driven by customer order and projected very high growth rate and rate the stock at RM 5++ or RM 7++ might be caught in the trap that they setup for themselves. These people might be panic due to over position in this stock and got into a panic. The shares will change hand from these people to conservative investors.

Some people are scared. There are lots of small shareholders in this counter and therefore price is more volatile. Current price is fair if one wants to buy, althought not "wonderful". I think the chances of price getting lower is smaller compare to the possibility of going up further. Upside opportunity is higher than downside risk.

Investors have been caucious these few days, which is good for healthy share price growth in future.

I think Q4 profit will be very close to Q3, maybe slightly more. Let's see.

It is not impossible to achieve by end of 2023 or early 2024 but a bit challenging for now.

If EPS Q4 could achieve close to 10 sen or much better than I have predicted, the price may reach RM 4 and above.

Target price RM 16.50 in next 3 years.

Current price may not be attractive if cukai makmur continue...

Yes, possible

The shallow dip of price despite moderately high volume shows that there are solid support to the price and that support is not likely from unimformed shareholders because this is not a hot stock. In other words, I suspect that the support come from "smart money".

Hi Lionel Messi, I estimated the Q2 EPS by using my own model and assumptions. With that level of estimated / true EPS, I think it is good to hold and perhaps slightly increase the stakeholding when the price dip to 8.70. This is because:
i) the dividend is in the up trend
ii) earning has basically recover post-Covid 19
iii) the PE is still cheap probably because of investor's memory about the big impact during MCO but MCO has came to past and this one-off incident/effect is gone and investor's confidence will recover after another 1 or 2 quarter showing steady / solid revenue and earnings. When this happen, PE and share price will improve to above PE 10
iv) I'll further improve my model of performance estimation based on latest quarter report and I feel that there might be positive factors towards next quarter earning in the brew.

On 30th Jan I predicted Q2 EPS 25 sen, now the actual result revealed is 23.38 sen. Should be quite close right? :)

Could it be a news purposely done to encourage investors to sell? So far it is just a plan, could be called off anytime soon right? Based on technical chart, this had triggered fear and the price once dip to nearly 8.70 at large volume but very soon got a strong rebounced, is this a war between the uninformed and informed? Look at the price movement and volume, I suspect someone is trying to control the price slightly below 9 by buying more but selling less but intense at the closing time. The purpose of doing this I guess is to collect the shares at below 9.

Another thing worth noting is that, tremendous reduction in sea freight compares to the past, is a very encouraging factor for exporting heavy goods like tiles. The big fat profit margin of the supply chain value just appear like that without needing to do anything.

Earthquake in Turkey, I think has destroyed far more houses than that destroyed in Russia-Ukraine war. And there will still be a series of earthquakes at the same region in following years according to geologist. Rebuild of the area will need a lot of tiles. This may create a spillover effect to the Asia Pacific market.

This is my opinion on the new porcelain tile plant:
If the plan to invest 400 mil for a new porcelain plant can be executed with IRR of 4.55%, annual EPS might be increased by 4.45 sen. This investment may cost net cash per share to shrink by RM 1.27 per share to become around RM 3 per share. This is a better option to invest the cash when compare to money market fund that generates return at only around 1.05%.

I estimate:
2022 Q4 EPS is 7.xx sen due to slow down of customers' sales
dividend is 25 sen
fair price is RM 3.57
FPI share price after 2022 Q4 result will be more stable than before, fluctuating around the fair price

Russia-Ukraine war, it doesnt matter who won the war. As long as the war is ended, sunflower seeds oil and crude oil supply from Ukraine and Russia to the global market will flow more efficiently than during war time. That's why it will give a big impact to other commodity such as palm oil. Although UP sell the goods via future contract, it will still be affected though the effect may come later. As for use of nuclear weapon, the chances are almost zero because of 2 reasons: (i) Putin is not yet insane / phychologically ill and still possess clear conscious (ii) The total loss / consequence to use nuclear weapon is greater than total gain of using it. The outcome of the war has a long-term and massive effect to the fundamentals of all plantation company and is something going to show up very soon. It will have an impact to the investment return if you are considering to buy now or near future whether you like it or not. The risk to buy now is definitely much higher than one or two months ago.

Hi Stockraider, we were talking about tile business

Hi Dhando, do you expect 2022 Q4 both revenue and net profit to be significantly lower than 2022 Q3?

FPI's performance in the short-term will be ultimately relying on the sales of the end product of its 3 major customers. In the long-term, in addition to that it will also include its ability to secure new customers or projects with reasonable profit margin. The future of the industry where FPI is participating is bright. However, the long-term success of FPI depends on its strength compares to other contracted manufacturers. Lack of transparency in this area may hinder quite a lot of investors from taking the risk to invest and hence the low PE.

What I'm afraid is he's not facing a local taikors now, but the one from China, big one.

Those who are buying for the final dividend, the dividend is already priced in. Speculators are already waiting for the time to dump, anytime when the dividend is announced, and definitely before the ex-date of the dividend.

Key success of investing in this kind of stock is to buy at low prices with very good patience to wait for the right price. When more people appear here to sing praises and when prices hit record high it is time to be careful and conservative.

Ukrain-Russia war may end very soon when Ukraine starts to deploy many advanced Western tanks in the battle field in Mar where the Russian ground weapon has no match to it. Once the war is ended both the crude oil and edible oil price will be corrected quite substantially. In fact this trend has already started. Though UTDPLT is a good company but its performance is still very much depends on the commodity price which is subjected to change according to major events in the world.

The tile business is so intense that manufacturers are cutting each other's throat

Hi Lionel Messi, according to my own calculation, it is possible that the amount of tile that Guoco consume might be able to take up all the supply from Guocera at the present stage but not sure after expanding to 3x of current capacity. However, the present tile business might be operating at tight margin. However, starts from FY2023 this will greatly improve and further improve in FY2024 due to a specific reason. No matter how, motorcycle business will remain the major contributor to the revenue and profit.

It was the top but not sure if it remains the top

Guocera market share could be the top in Malaysia. But I'm not sure about its profitability.

Turkey and Ukraine a bit far. Ransport fee will be very expensive for heavy goods like tiles. Don't think it is competitive to export to these destinations unless customers are willing to pay for it but people in these regions are not rich.

Hi Lionel Messi, how much net profit you think Guocera contributed to FY2022?

But I think this dip of confidence will not last long due to what is going to happen:
1. Announcement of excellent Q2 result by end of Feb (I predict Q2 EPS to be around 25 sen)
2. Those scared investors will realise that the cash to invest in Guocera is only about a quarter of the total cash accumulated.
3. Higher final dividend to be announced in May
4. Once the new plant is completed and operate by end of 2024, EPS will increase. And when EPS increases, dividend payout is likely to increase to keep the same payout ratio. The effect of higher EPS and dividend that occur at the same time is likely to make a double strike on the share price where market will re-rate this stock at higher PE.
So any investor who want to invest in this counter should wait for the above four events to complete, and decide later whether it is worthy to hold on to the share after the predicted rise in mid or late 2025.

I once thought that release of this news could stir up fear in some investors and that will create a buy opportunity. Looks like that now.

I think lots of shareholders are afraid of the investment in Guocera expansion. The plan is still a proposal that has not yet been decided, as far as I know. I somehow have the feeling that this plan will not be materialised in the end and annual dividend payout will increase to 65-70 sen per year. If the expansion is cancelled, if I were Tan Sri Quek, I might consider to sell Guocera away, and the proceed and the accumulated cash pile will be distributed out, at least partially, to a healthy level.

This counter needs a lots of patience. Put only a little bit of chips on this counter so that you don't run out of patience.