Hi Monetary. It didn't go as I wish / thought.

Waiting for result...

But one thing I beg to differ: use Seair to predict result.

You know lah the Chairman... some answers need to use brain juice to peel the onion... haha.

But I tell you I'm still digesting because did not have time to read all yet ya...

And Dhando did a good and correct analysis on 2022 EPS.

And so far my stand remains.

If I can jump to conclusion I would say share price will be able to recover not too long. Busy to do detailed info processing...

OK OK. Let me have some time to tidy up the things.... the slides were really fast....

Hi Pinnacle, see my pm :)

Books and Gurus say don't grab sharp knife. Contradicted. Theories are easy and known by everyone. It is a lot harder to make money because you got to know when theories fail.

Warren Buffet said be greedy when others are fearful. I hope he's right this time. ^_^

Expecting a poorer yoy Q1 2023 result but current price has gone too far away from fair value. Actually most of FPI's customers only slightly adjust / reduce FY2023 revenue outlook. I estimate the revenue in Q1 2023 to be somewhere close to RM 200 mil by using various methods.

If you have 3 bullets to shoot, I think it is a good chance to at least spend a bullet to shoot now.

yong1985cm, Maybe. But if he is insider, why now only take action? If he is not insider, why do we think he knew it earlier? If things are permanently bad, why major shareholders did not run? When company do share buyback, Wistron and 2nd largest shareholder and Mr. Shih himself are those who spent the most in buying back the most. These are board members right? I don't think they will do something against their own interests.

Small fishes like us will be safe to follow behind the share buy back. Rare opportunity. You have to wait once in a life time investing FPI.

If the big fish plan got jeopardised then he will quickly buy back to minimise lost today and before end of play tomorrow. If it is margin call then price will recover after tomorrow's announcement depends on the earning performance.

It should be equivalent to getting high single digit ROI without much effort put to win new projects.

If FPI feel difficult to get new orders then share buy back at low prices is another way to improve earnings for us.

Or someone purposely did that to chop of the hands of a hostile banker who use borrowed money to hold the stock. But I think this parang get stuck. Why not suggest a resolution in AGM tomorrow to buy back shares until 2.50? I think everyone will be happy to support.

Or maybe that big fish pursue other stock which he has no patience to wait

Maybe that big fish kena margin call.

Customer's concern taken care and at the same time CM carried out the work with some savings into the pocket loh.

So when a few factors come together hence the change to cater all these requirements loh.

Why need to re-design the flow of material, one valid reason is that Sonos want to protect the confidentiality of its product mah... if final assembly simply go here and there done by sub-con then secrets leak mah.

So in that case hor, FPI do not need to buy and resell some of the part, so you will see revenue contribution by Wistron going down but FPI is still selling the FPI-made components mah.

Maybe because of tax exemption for new factory mah.

Harison888, last time: EE part from Wistron --> Hardware body assembly at FPI
This time: FPI hardware body part --> Wistron do the assembly with their EE part.

Hi NatsukoMishima, I dunno will go to 1.50 or not, but I contribute some first. If go to 1.50 I contribute some more ya. Like in a war, you need to have 3 defence lines mah.

Hi Pinnaclegrade, I also contribute some :)

The big Mc is appearing.

3 million shares... I think it must be someone from 3rd to 30th largest shareholders who triggered the sell down.

I think I prefer FPI to do this and distribute the shares to us as share dividend. Let the company to do this for us as who else is smarter in investing FPI than FPI itself? :) Smart and right move Mr. Shih.

I guess that person must be an insider because normal people who lack of info would not dare / willing to hold a sharp knife. And that was beyond holding, setting a floor for the price drop. Now the puzzle is resolved, it was FPI who did it.

when I look at the trading process I knew someone big is holding the price at 2.35, at that time I did not know it was FPI buying back the shares.

Hi CWC1981, I can only think of 3 reasons:
1. the price drops to very attractive level, the return could be higher than its own business (likely)
2. to protect the company shares from being bought over by competitors or hostile takeover (likely)
3. the boss borrowed a lots of money to hold the shares and need company share buyback to support the price (I'm not able to judge)

Hi pinnaclegrade u bought 8000 shares or 80000 shares?

cwc1981 wah u hold 16 years? I thought u born in 1981?

Other than that we should note that contribution of sales by Wistron was only 10% in 2022. We must not neglect the substantial revenue from musical instrument where demand on musical instrument such as guitar and piano remain strong in North Americal region, Europe and Japan. Maybe music is a must or maybe because IoT economy is growing despite high inflation and mortgage expenses.

Normally company like Sonos like to keep a few contracted manufacturers to compete with each other so the company is able to get a more competitive price. Hence, the diversion of some of the orders to, say Inventec. Therefore, can't blame Wistron giving less order to FPI. Early this year Sonos launch new product, so FPI and Wistron would have been busy too. This is a fast growing cake sliced half in 2022.

OEM is highly competitive and thin margin business model. The factory wont just keep 2600 workers to sit there drawing salary. With 2600 workers in the factory and improved automation, the productivity should be more or less the same as the total achievement in last year. Why would the boss keep the operators if there is no order?

Hi WkChia, this is my understanding on 2022 Q4 revenue down: Customers found that Q3 sales slowed down and too much stock to sell. Feared of over stocking, they put less order in Q4. So this is just to prevent storing too much old model. Whereas in 2023 Q1, they should have already order new models to compete with competitors. So Q1 sales will be normalised. This year shipping cost is a lot more reasonable and stable. It will be easier to plan production and shipment so a more flat delivery traffic can be expected compares to last year and so does the revenue.

Before that I suspect FPI no longer get Sonos order but I think I guessed wrongly. This is the more likely to be true: FPI is still getting Sonos order through Wistron through it has declined compare to 2021 but the order awarded could have been stable. Wistron is supporting in electronics and software while FPI is doing other hardware and assembly work I guess. Revenue contribution from Wistron in 2023 Q1 could be the same or slighly less than 2022 Q4. Expecting 7 sen EPS in Q1 as no more forex loss (forex had been stable in 2023 Q1) is expected.

Hi WkChia I think it is because demand slows down. But will pickup in Q2 or Q3. Q3 last year was extraordinary. Normalised sale is 200-250 mil every quarter.

Sorry, RM 249 mil

Hi Harison888, not 80 cent but around RM 1.03 but that was many years back. Anyway, revenue of 2023 Q1 will be around RM 211 mil.

Economy at Kunshan is bad. But I think that subsidiary is related to I-phone. But FPI is not involved in I-phone.

I believ it is due to bad news of another subsidiary of Wistron, not related to FPI.

Minor amendment in bracket. Someone mentioned the production cost / MT of CPO in the AGM. I have special feeling towards this question because I did spend a lot of time to do the cost analysis. If you are the one who raised the question and is reading this, I'd like to share with you my understanding on that. Assuming that labour salary, fertiliser, chemical and fuel cost (price) are flat throughout the year, then production cost / MT CPO will be highest in the quarter that produce the least CPO. This is because some of these costs and other costs are fixed cost, and are therefore cannot be divided evenly to CPO produced throughout the year.

Hi 3i, albeit a cyclical stock, there is a new baseline for CPO price. Eventhough fetiliser price is in the down trend but it is almost impossible for plantation worker salary to go down (unless hit by a big recession). Therefore the new baseline of CPO price would not be that low as we have seen in 2010s. At current economy outlook, there are not many better options than RM 15.80 / share UTDPLT. 7% to 8% dividend yield with very solid balance sheet and a management who is generous, kind and diligent... maybe you'd feel it more attractive than your small business if you have one. As I read through the AGM minutes, I feel the sincerity of management in responding to minor shareholders' interest.