FCPO 4505: Malaysian palm oil futures soared around 2% to surpass MYR 4,460 per tonne, climbing for the second session after the latest industry data showed inventories fell for the third month to 1.71 million metric tons at the end of December. Meantime, production shrank 8.3% in Dec. from Nov. to 1.49 million tons. Prices recovered further from their lowest in over 11 weeks, buoyed by optimism that demand from key buyer China would strengthen ahead of the Lunar New Year later this month. Meanwhile, trade data in key buyer China indicated exports rose for the ninth month in December, while imports unexpectedly gained, adding to bolster sentiment. However, gains were capped by lower export estimates from cargo surveyors, which reported slumps of 21.4% to 26.8% for Jan. 1–10. Caution also built ahead of India’s Dec. import data, expected later this week. Additionally, some traders anticipated sluggish overall demand in Q1 of 2025 as rival edible oils maintained a price advantage over palm oil.

Sorry gto compare palm oil production with FFB production. if compare the same, market palm oil production drop 8% MoM but Jtiasa only drop 2%, which is also remarkable

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/740533
Market Dec production drop 8% but Jtiasa FFB up 3% which is remarkable!

Wah! Checked FCPO,. seems like drawing a bullish engulfing candlestick at bottom above MAV200

Based on Mr Lee posting, December FFB increase 3% MoM, FCPO rebounding above MAV200 after testing yesterday

December palm oil stock level 1,708,747, drop 7%, Export drop 10% MoM
https://bepi.mpob.gov.my/index.php/summary-2/320-2024/1187-summary-of-the-malaysian-palm-oil-industry-2024

再下来一点 1.15 更妙， trader cut loss, 市场出清，smart money collect all

buying back Jtiasa, 2ndQR around 6-7sen. Divident 5-6 sen

Have to wait another 2 weeks only can reached 1.23. have to wait 4 months to reach 1.15
(南洋行家论股
下跌股:常成控股 RM1.15支撑)

FCPO 4530 @3pm. when the prices drop only bargain hunting by foreign importers kicked in.
(Trading Economics: Malaysian palm oil futures dropped below MYR 4,550 per tonne following a strong rally in the previous session, pressured by weaker export estimates. Cargo surveyors reported that Malaysian palm oil product shipments fell by 7.6% to 8.3% during the first 20 days of December, compared to the same period in November. Additionally, market activity was subdued ahead of the holidays. However, losses were limited by optimism that demand from China, a key consumer, would increase in anticipation of the Lunar New Year in late January. In Indonesia, the world’s top producer, the B40 biodiesel mandate will be launched in January, an increase from the current B35. Furthermore, Jakarta has raised the export levy on crude palm oil to 10%, up from the previous 7.5%, to support higher biodiesel subsidies. Market trading operations will resume on Thursday, following a break on Wednesday for Christmas Day.)

fcpo 4521, pause falling

Mr ST, your price is scheduled to be realized may be APRIL- JUN 2025

FCPO 4377 @5PM , any 1-2 days to reach support MAV200 around 4260.
(Malaysian palm oil futures hovered below MYR 4,500 per tonne, marking their sixth straight session of losses and notching an eight-week low. The bearish mood was driven by India’s extension of its suspension on trading derivative contracts for key farm commodities, including crude palm oil and rapeseed, until January to curb food inflation. Weighing further on sentiment were forecasts for a record soybean crop in Brazil early next year and a new US plan permitting gasoline sales with higher ethanol blending. Regarding shipments, Malaysian palm oil exports fell by 6.7% to 9.8% during the December 1–15 period, according to cargo surveyors. Market uncertainty also persisted over Indonesia’s biodiesel mandates, as Jakarta has yet to allocate higher blending quotas. However, losses were limited by hopes that demand from key buyer China could recover ahead of the Lunar New Year festivals. Meanwhile, the EU Parliament approved delaying its deforestation law implementation to December 2025.)

FCPO double tops neckline 4600 broken, MAV200 4250 hopefully can support.
(Malaysian palm oil futures tumbled near 3.0% to below MYR 4,600 per tonne, marking the fourth session of losses and hitting their lowest in seven weeks. The selloff was due to nervousness among traders over a massive long liquidation by funds, a trend expected to persist. On the export front, cargo surveyors noted Malaysian palm oil shipments fell between 6.7% and 9.8% during the Dec. 1-15 period, further pressuring prices. However, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council noted a recovery in soybean oil prices could support palm oil in December, while demand from China may improve ahead of Lunar New Year festivals in January. Separately, the EU Parliament approved a one-year delay for its deforestation law, now set to begin in Dec. 2025. On the production side, heavy rains and flooding disrupted activity in key Malaysian regions, prompting the industry regulator to forecast a fourth straight monthly decline in output in Dec. This could lead to a further reduction in stocks for the third month.)

FCPO almost reach critical support i.e neckline of double tops 4600. Failure to hold above neckline may cause prices drastic drop!?
(Malaysian palm oil futures hovered below MYR 4,720 per tonne, marking the third straight session of losses and hitting their lowest in three weeks. The decline was due to lower export estimates, with cargo surveyors noting that Malaysian palm oil shipments fell between 6.7% and 9.8% during the first 15 days of December. Adding to the bearish mood was a slight fall in palm oil buying from top consumer India last month, coupled with New Delhi's ongoing efforts to ease import dependence and achieve self-reliance in edible oils over the medium to long term. Capping further declines were signs of rising demand from key buyer China ahead of the Lunar New Year festivals at the end of January. On the production front, challenges from heavy flooding in key Malaysian regions persisted, with the industry regulator projecting a fourth straight monthly decline in output for December. These constraints are likely to further reduce December stocks, which would be a third successive monthly drop.)

Wait for 1.27-1.28 lo

You may realize FFB production drop YoY 22% and MoM 20%, with palm oil price 20% higher than 4000, it become equal, therefore we can estimate next QR around 5.5-6 sen, with higher than normal inventory 50M keep at 30 Sep may produce another 1.5sen (to be confirmed) thus 5.5-6+1.5 =7-7.5sen per share if no loss from other business.

this time it seems follow a cup and handle pattern to target 1.60

1.30 need to wait for January when Thailand reopen export

Ha, did Jtiasa read i3 post? Shoot up to 1.50 but didn't bite mine.

previous 1.45 resistance too strong, retreat to 1.25-1.27 is time to buy back. A breakout of 1.29 7 days straight lines last week is remarkable

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2024/12/05/malakoffs-re-expansion-reaches-bukit-damansara-communities/
Malakof started clean energy business.....

Is Jtiasa drawing a technical chart of a bowl and handle pattern? If so Target 1.60. Fatt.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/asean/heavy-rains-south-east-asia-flood-farms-and-force-evacuations
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/indonesia-floods-landslides-deaths-severe-weather-climate-change/
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2910076/floods-ravage-four-southern-provinces

FCPO responded to potential reduction of palm oil production.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/three-dead-thousands-displaced-malaysia-warns-worst-floods-decade-2024-11-29/

FCPO 5000 psychological level breaken out, now left 5200 double tops or BO

FCPO 4903 this morning, confirmed break out of downtrend channel. China PMI may be elevated brcause China's exports boom as companies race against Trump tariffs
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade-war/China-s-exports-boom-as-companies-race-against-Trump-tariffs
( FCPO 4885 near 5pm finally break out of downtrend channel, possible proceed for range bound or double tops. Let see if tonight price can sustain. Among news related is MPOA reported palm oil production drop 5.2% MoM, EU palm oil import plunge 18% YoY since July, India already import enough for Nov and December, now left China order for CNY use. FCPO is eyeing China PMI due 30 Nov to decide it's direction)

FCPO 4885 near 5pm finally break out of downtrend channel, possible proceed for range bound or double tops. Let see if tonight price can sustain. Among news related is MPOA reported palm oil production drop 5.2% MoM, EU palm oil import plunge 18% YoY since July, India already import enough for Nov and December, now left China order for CNY use. FCPO is eyeing China PMI due 30 Nov to decide it's direction

HI, anyone who attend AGM can update what management mentioned anything good or unfavorable?

What happen to FCPO, trying to break out of these few days downtrend channel tonight despite weaken USD?

Hi, Mr Lee, Please update us the AGM questions ya. Thanks

Mr Lee, Thanks in advance for the sharing.
( Posted by Sslee > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse
By the way once jayatiasa reply my AGM questions, I will post it.)

Tomorrow RSI rebounded back >50%, End of this month QR released estimated EPS around 5 sen no dividend, QoQ +200%, YoY -28% NTA1.59. February QR release predicted 6 sen, Dividend 3-5 sen, QoQ +20%, YoY+20% NTA 1.65, how much it worth?

Oversold d

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/2893076/palm-oil-exports-halted-as-prices-rise
Thailand indirectly goreng FCPO price.......

When largest world palm oil producer Indonesia ban palm oil export in 2022, palm oil price hit 7000, when 3rd largest producer Thailand ban palm oil export for 2 months, palm oil price may hit 5000. Let see! Coincidentally this quarter is
high production period within one year, just imagine what will happen to profit in QR to be released in February!
https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2024/10/31/thailand-bans-export-of-raw-palm-oil-as-production-takes-a-hit

Short term target 1.33, next month 1.40, next year 1.68. congratulation to those buying at RM1

As Insurance company mainly keep bonds for their investment, bond price appreciation will be good when US economy slow down and cut rate.
https://www.ram.com.my/pressrelease/?prviewid=6736

More than expectation. I thought 8 sen only

probably tomorrow AGM

Because this year CPO production lower than last year due to El nino, thus price can maintain high. China start releasing water into the pool, commodities prices rebound.

How much is expected Dividend to be announced?

Jtiasa got chance to BO 1.15? Let's watch

Soyoil future just broke out from double bottoms above neckline 42.50 due to China moderate financial stimulus yesterday, so did FCPO, however upside is limited as WTI oil haven't break out

The reason for palm oil lower production in 2024 than 2023 is very clear now-El Nino effect. August data suggested Penisular companies production not much affected but Sabah YoY reduced 39%, Serawak YoY reduced 29%!
https://bepi.mpob.gov.my/index.php/stock/313-stocks-2024/1173-monthly-closing-stock-of-oil-palm-products-2024
FCPO Report: Malaysian palm oil futures fell below MYR 3,890 per tonne, retreating for the third consecutive session as traders reacted to monthly data from the country's Palm Oil Board. Palm oil stocks at the end of August increased by 7.34% from the previous month to 1.88 million metric tons, the highest level in six months, according to the industry regulator. Meanwhile, production grew by 2.87% in August from July to 1.89 million tons, while exports fell by 9.74% to 1.53 million tons. In Indonesia, the top palm oil producer, Jakarta is preparing to lower export duties to improve competitiveness and raise farmers' incomes, which could further impact Malaysia’s export market. In India, the world’s largest palm oil consumer, purchases of the commodity plunged by 27% in August due to abundant stock levels. Elsewhere, crude oil prices declined on persistent concerns over weak demand from China. Still, strength in rival oils on the CBoT on Monday limited the decline.

Promotion time RM2+?

Palm oil export rebound after middle of August from MoM -20% to -9% end of August.
FCPO Report:
Malaysian palm oil futures surged around 1% to near MYR 3,980 per tonne after hitting as low as MYR 3,901 in the prior session, buoyed by a steady decline in ringgit. Prospects of sluggish output due to dry weather also uplift sentiment, as the Southern Peninsular Palm Oil Millers Association noted production edged down 1% during the first 25 days of August. Meanwhile, top grower Indonesia will launch a mandatory 50% palm oil-based biodiesel blending next year after the deforestation rules by the EU. However, weakness in Dalian rival oils limited the upturn. Meanwhile, cargo surveyors' data pointed to lower exports in August, with Intertek Testing Services saying shipments of Malaysian palm oil products fell by 9.9%. Also, there was a potential increase in import tax on vegetable oils in top buyer India, which could lower demand for palm oil. Elsewhere, crude oil prices were subdued after recent heavy losses, as concerns over China’s economic outlook offset supply disruptions in Libya.
Malaysian palm oil futures surged around 1% to near MYR 3,980 per tonne after hitting as low as MYR 3,901 in the prior session, buoyed by a steady decline in ringgit. Prospects of sluggish output due to dry weather also uplift sentiment, as the Southern Peninsular Palm Oil Millers Association noted production edged down 1% during the first 25 days of August. Meanwhile, top grower Indonesia will launch a mandatory 50% palm oil-based biodiesel blending next year after the deforestation rules by the EU. However, weakness in Dalian rival oils limited the upturn. Meanwhile, cargo surveyors' data pointed to lower exports in August, with Intertek Testing Services saying shipments of Malaysian palm oil products fell by 9.9%. Also, there was a potential increase in import tax on vegetable oils in top buyer India, which could lower demand for palm oil. Elsewhere, crude oil prices were subdued after recent heavy losses, as concerns over China’s economic outlook offset supply disruptions in Libya.

Any mentioned of loss in logging business in this QR?

Noted thanks. hng33 and SSlee, have to look forward QR

Therefore 2023 4Q EPS should read as 4sen and 2024 4Q should read as 3 sen