Extracted from Umcca thread:

Max2838

With CPO price at above RM5000, this continues to be a disappointing plantation company, dragged down by its Indonesian operations. Companies that do not have oil refineries in Indonsia will always lose out because CPO price in Indonesia is some RM1000 lower than that in Malaysia. In general, the crop yield of its plantations in Malaysia is so much lower compared to UP, KLK, IOI, HSP, etc. Weakness is in it harvesting operations, not agronomy....

In this prefession, we learn from our mistakes most of the times. We keep update our own valuation model against the market. It's worthless pointing the finger to another. Still living in the past glory ke?

Jtiasa valuation only RM13k/planted hectare in comparing with industry average RM30k/hectare. Mr Market is likely confused between 13 and 30.

Rebounded so fast. Time to resume moving north again.

The gross margin will be gradually recovered in the next few quaters before including additional revenue and profit contribution from the new factory as a result of SEA regional market expansion.

Not many know the raw material price of milk has dropped back to pre-covid level and many remains in the dark for the next few quaters unless it were clearly infomed by the management.

It sounds like recycling the old news again. The company should give more information to the market about the raw material prices locked-in with the mother company for the next 6 to 12 months.

Good FFB yield per hectare but extra low net selling price of CPO after adding Indonesia Export Levy and Duty. CPO prices difference about 11% between Malaysia and Indonesia in comparison with Inno. In addition, TSH's 90% CPO is produced in Indonesia further dampen its earnings.

Aji had made a strong comeback with returning of better gross margin. Dlady could be the next.

Nice price consolidation or shaking.

Material purchased is getting cheaper from the quarterly related party transactions and gross profit margin on the way back normal level. This is another turnaround play.

Valuation of financial strong upstream plantation companies have shifted to Market capital per planted hectare and excluded old trees.

Rerating of Jtiasa would offer a fair valuation from RM 2 to RM 2.4 on the back of peers Market cap per hectare between RM 28k and RM 33k.

Mr Market has given a fair valuation to the upstream plantation companies. Bldplnt, MHC, NSOP, SOP, TSH, TAAN and Umcca are all traded in the range of market cap RM 33k per planted hectare after excluding old prime trees. What a coincidence!

Aiyoh 3i, do more research of the plantation companies rather than sticking to easy going companies. In reality, Genine is not involved in funds investments. Hahaha!

If I am not mistaken, Genine and Asanas are only or used to invest in Jtiasa, Subur and Rsawit (Tiong family companies).

Genine Chain (and Asanas Sdn Bhd) are closed related to Tiong family more than 10 years ago. Tiong bought Subur shares from Asanas years ago. Asanas is or used to be the shareholder of Jtiasa, Subur and Rsawit.

JTIASA will harvest more than 320, 000 tons of FFB in 3rd quarter. It is more or less similar with SOP harvesting FFB quantities.

Genine disposed exactly 10 million shares for the last few days. Saw many shares quing above above 85 cents. It could be another batch of the shares.

JTIASA has achieved a turnaround in 2 years because of all its trees is prime mature. The main problem to Rsawit is the old age of the trees, 40% planted areas > 20 years old.

Cash inflow from 3 quarters depreciation worth RM 102 million plus conservative PAT 90 million are sufficient pay off the loan and RM 55 million related parties transactions.

It takes 2 more quarters to turn Jtiasa into a fully net cash company. Jtiasa will enjoy a savings in finance costs RM 25 million. By then, market cap planted per hectare of Jtiasa would be valued on par with its peers.

JTIASA valuation is far below other Sarawak planters. Peers are traded at much higher MYR planted/ hectare.

Jtiasa - MYR 12k
SOP - MYR 28k
Swkplnt - MYR 26k
TAAN - MYR 32k

Finally, market is aware of Jtiasa turning around of its FFB yield. Rerating on the way.

One of the highest dividend yield 7.5% in REIT when contribution from QE is fully booked .

Unicornbird. Singapore is a magnet of funds from Asean and especially China. A lot of money has quietly flocked into the small island in the last 12 months. The country is experiencing many loaded individuals snapping up properties at massive scale until the government had to come out skyhigh stamp duty to beat the overheated residential property prices. With such good situations, sgd is, of course, up and a way to curb inflation.

I hardly see such kind of consistency in valuation based on PER. It means the automatic trading is well preset by the fund managers nowadays.

The valuation of banks are seen based on grouping by the fun manager. It is easy to do it with the help of technology and loaded funds. Different groups are fetched with different valuation in PER.

Unicornbird. Non local Singapore banks offer higher FD rates. FD of local banks are slightly higher than Msia banks.
DBS - 3.2%
OCBC - 3.0%
UOB - 3.1%

Bank sector valuation has been shifted from P/B to PER. Market is rather consistent nowadays.

Singapore banks, UOB, OCBC & DBS, are traded at PER 8.8x.

Maybank - PER 12.2x
PBBank & RCECap - PER 11.4x & 11x
HLBank - PER 10x
CIMB - PER 9x
ABMB, BIMB & RHBank & (Affin forward PER) - PER 7.7x
AMBank, HLFG & AeonCr - PER 7x

My electricity bill up 25% since April 23. More to go.

Other positive factors for Tenaga:
1. Consumption increase due to hot weather
2. Government to allow export of electricity
3. Better earnings in the absent of prosperity tax
4. Reduction of coal prices

A leading indicator ,US PPI index, is trending downward or dropped from the peak 11.3% in 12 months ago against reported 2.3% for Apr 23. It shows that CPI is under control after Fed hiking interest rates steeply. Expect Fed to announce cutting interest rate in the year end.

Weather is really hot recently and may cause increasing consumption of electricity. Be prepared for the el nino in 2nd half.

Energy costs doesn't restricted to electricity. You see the prices of petrol, diesel, lpg and natural gas...you can make a comparison between Malaysia and the Asia countries. See how much differences. In fact, confectionery factory use more natural gas if it's available in the industrial park.

Increase in electricity tariff will certainly have a negative impact to the bottom line of the Malaysia confectionery industry. Energy hike is a global issues and Malaysia has been heavily subsidied the local industry. Go to compare the electricity tariff in Asia

People know the electricity tariff hike already. How's the impact is dependent on the industry. Heavy industry is expected to be suffered more. See how much the impact to OFI and HupSeng in its quarterly report next month.

Global hike energy costs would make Malaysia consumer products more competitive in the market since domestic industries are subsidized directly or indirectly. I don't have any export sales of Apollo but OFI's export sales surged continuously for the last 3 quarters.

Distributors and big retailers were suddenly built up 40% more of end consumer products in 2 consecutive quarters. It is rather unusual practice. Why were they being so rush...afraid of increasing selling prices? That's what we normally see in commodity products. If the turnover was suddenly surged with merely 1 quarter then it could be a stock repleshment

Zzprozaz. We both using the different basis to make a projection of potential turnover in the next 2 quarters. I am using the quarterly turnover and inventory to see the trend and the relationship or if there is any strong correlation over the past 7 years. It seems there is something change apparently since 2022. Quarterly turnover was relatively stable trending downward over the last few years.

Normalized? Apollo is going to deliver turnover 20% to 30% higher than pre-covid level for FY 2023 (FY Apr 23). I don't know. May be you are right.

zzprozaz. Google " apollo food agm 2021 minutes ". hihi

Link for Apollo AGM minutes 2021
http://www.apollofood.com.my/27AGM/Key%20Matters%20AGM%202021%20-%20Appendix%20A.pdf

zprozaz. I don't know what are the main reasons behind surged in Turnover over the past 2 quarters. Is there any new product launching or venturing into new market besides one off restocking as what you said. I agreed that turnover of OFI & HupSeng have returned to pre-covid level after comparing with the past 5 years. On the other side, Apollo's turnover is rather different as shown below.

Turnover - Apollo
FY 2023 - 197m (9 months)
FY 2022 - 188m
FY 2021 - 190m
FY 2020 - 175m
FY 2019 - 189m
FY 2018 - 191m

Turnover - HupSeng
2022 - 318m
2021 - 296m
2020 - 327m
2019 - 310m
2018 - 307m

Turnover - OFI
2022 - 288m
2021 - 296m
2020 - 267m
2019 - 287m
2018 - 288m

Turnover - HupSeng
2022 - 318m
2021 - 296m
2020 - 327m
2019 - 310m
2018 - 307m

Zzprozaz. The new machine speed is definitely much higher than the output of the old junk 10 years ago.
" new machinery line in 2021 was made primarily to benefit from new
technology's ability to save energy while also increasing output."

Wait patiently except a new commercial viable technology is developed and tin mineral is excluded from making EV batteries.

AGM 2021 Minutes. There is a question related to the investment in PPE .

Q16. Inquiry received from Mr Koh Chooi Peng:
There has been a big jump in the Purchase of Property, Plant & Equipment amount
to RM8.511 million in FY2021 vs RM1.408 million in FY2020 (page 71 of AR).
(a) What are the reasons for the huge increase in PPE?
(b) The Capital Commitment provided for FY2021 was only RM931,000 (page 111 of
AR), what will be the commitments expected for FY2022?

Board’s Response:
The RM8.511 million was used to purchase new machinery for the waffle production line.
The Company's current chocolate waffle production line is more than ten years old, so the
decision to invest in a new machinery line in 2021 was made primarily to benefit from new
technology's ability to save energy while also increasing output. Additionally, the existing
line can be upgraded to the level of the most recent technology.

Turnover surged is in line with the confectionery industry players like OFI and HupSeng. It could be partly due to increased capacity as new line (worth RM 10m PPE) has put into operations in 2022. Any new products launched in year 2022?

It may take years to get the inflation back to 2% level. Look at what had happened to the crude oil supply recently. There is a strong price correlation between QE and commodity (Crude oil, soy oil and palm oil). Good day for low inflation is gone.

Before you buy Jtiasa, you should think about what game you want to play with Mr Market. If not, Mr Market would squeeze you kaw kaw! As for me, I have allocated a team of kamikaze trops to fight with them.