By looking at the CPO production for the past 6 years, it is obviously the decreasing trend was formed in 2020. The downtrend remains for first quarter 2021 with a reduction of 2% on the back of production quantity 14.55 million ton.

CPO production (Indonesia & Malaysia)

2020 - 70.8 million ton (-1.3%)
2019 - 71.7 million ton (+7.1%)
2018 - 66.9 million ton (+7.0%)
2017 - 62.5 million ton (+13.1%)
2016 - 55.3 million ton (+7.6%)
2015 - 51.4 million ton (+4.6%

Calvin. I thought you want to do CSR. True also. It’s not good to you for revealing too many ‘untrusted’ counters. At least, The Edge has identified more than 30 counters in their article ‘hidden hands behind penny surge’

Calvin should come out a list of pump and dump companies without supporting of fundamental to serve as a warning for newbies.

Must give a credit to Calvin for revealing pump and dump operandi.

WTK's main business is timber harvesting and processing. Its plantation performance can't even match with small player like PLS plantation which has been making profits. Not to say that PLS Plantation mature areas is about 10% lower than WTK.

No local mainstream medias has reported spike in prices of log, plywood and particle boards. Lagging news?

There are many many high NTA companies with small segment in plantation ie Orient, Kseng, KSL ..

WTK should be able to make reasonable profit few years later.

WTK's segmental performance for the past 4 quarters.
Palm Oil division LOSSES (excluding revaluation of Biological Assets)
31 Dec 20 - 11.1m
30 Sep 20 - 45.6m (included impairment PPE 22.2m)
30 Jun 20 - 3.2m
31 Mar 20 - 3.8m

Timber division LOSSES
31 Dec 20 - 7.9m
30 Sep 20 - 112.2m (included impairment PPE 59.8m)
30 Jun 20 - 13.9m
31 Mar 20 - 17.8m

By looking at the CPO production for the past 6 years, it is obviously the decreasing trend was formed in 2020. The downtrend remains for first quarter 2021 with a reduction of 2% on the back of production quantity 14.55 million ton.

CPO production (Indonesia & Malaysia)

2020 - 70.8 million ton (-1.3%)
2019 - 71.7 million ton (+7.1%)
2018 - 66.9 million ton (+7.0%)
2017 - 62.5 million ton (+13.1%)
2016 - 55.3 million ton (+7.6%)
2015 - 51.4 million ton (+4.6%)

WTK's segmental performance for the past 12 months.

Palm Oil division LOSSES (excluding revaluation of Biological Assets)
31 Dec 20 - 11.1m
30 Sep 20 - 45.6m (included impairment PPE 22.2m)
30 Jun 20 - 3.2m
31 Mar 20 - 3.8m

Timber division LOSSES
31 Dec 20 - 7.9m
30 Sep 20 - 112.2m (included impairment PPE 59.8m)
30 Jun 20 - 13.9m
31 Mar 20 - 17.8m

TAAn's segmental profitability for the past 12 months.

Palm Oil division PBT (excluding revaluation of Biological Assets)
31 Dec 20 - 56.7m
30 Sep 20 - 71.9m
30 Jun 20 - 27.7m
31 Mar 20 - 12.3m

Timber division
31 Dec 20 - 67.7m (loss)
30 Sep 20 - 3.0m (loss)
30 Jun 20 - 7.4m (loss)
31 Mar 20 - 7.7m (profit)

In summary, Palm Oil division posted PBT 56.7 million (excluding Biological Assets revaluation) whereas Timber division reported loss before Tax 67.7 million in 4th Qtr 2020. Surprisingly, positive cash generated from the operation showed 79 million in 4th Qtr alone.

Timber division suffered 32.7 million losses before taking into account Written Off PPE and impairment 35 million in 4th Qtr 2020. Huge operating losses of 32.7 million could be due to written down of inventories to NRV in Timber division as Inventory showed a staggered reduction of 42 million in comparing with immediate preceding quarter.

Hot money is gradually moving out from Technology sector....and pumping plantation sector.

TAAn earnings was dragged by one off impairment and written off PPE in timber division in last quarter. Lumber price hike is the game changer besides CPO bull.

Information about the Philippines market as extracted from the funds raising in 2018:

1. Philippines has a population of approximately 100 million with no existing tinplate manufacturers
2. Tinplate in the Philippines are mainly sourced from other countries. (China, Korea & Japan)
3. The annual domestic demand is approximately 220,000 mt

JFE Shoji and Nippon Steel don't sell the black plates to outsiders other than their related companies. It is highly capital intensive for setting up black plate production facilities as the products are typically catered to automobile and ship building markets. Black plate for producing electrolytic tinplate market is obviously too small in contributing to the turnover.

Perstima is actually controlled by JFE Shoji, the second largest shareholder and the sole raw material (black plate) supplier. Electrolytic tinplate manufacturing does not require high capital intensive or technology skill. The high bearer of entry is to obtain reliability long term supply of black plate for producing electrolytic tinplate.

Electrolytic tinplate market works in an oligopoly manner. It seems they have a common consensus in setting up a factory in each country of SEA.

Factory capacity per year
1. Perstima Malaysia - 200,000 mt
2. Perstima Vietnam - 120,000 mt
3. PT Pelat Timah Indonesia - 160,000 mt ( controlled by Nippon Steel)
4. Siam Tinplate Thailand - 140,000 mt ( controlled by Nippon Steel )
5. Perstima Philippines - 200,000 mt

Exactly.
Posted by Ben Tan > May 6, 2021 9:37 PM | Report Abuse

Up_down, thank you for your comment. This is very interesting. So what you are saying is that their dividend payout comes 1 quarter later every time?

Ben Tan, Nice follow up with the glove sector. Harta dividend policy is quite consistent with the payout 60%. The latest dividend declared 17.7 cents was derived from 3rd Qtr 2021 EPS 29.3 cents x 60%. Next round of dividend expected is 19.7 cents ( 4Qtr EPS 32.75 cents x 60%)

"
However, the dividend payout for the financial year came at 39.4%, far below 60%. The closest it came to the mentioned 60% payout was in the last quarter - 54%. No guidance or explanation was provided that I could find, neither in advance, nor post factum on where this significant difference came from. I have recently discussed elsewhere that the lack of proper dividend policy for most Malaysian companies makes it all the more difficult for minority shareholders to analyze the companies and the corresponding risks. Such significant discrepancies don't make it any easier."

Currently, Persima was merely enjoyed net profit margin 9% in the latest QR, at much lower than export rebate given by China. The potential of margin hike is imminent in near future as Asia electrolytic tinplate prices is mostly driven by the influx of products from China with the fully refund of 13% VAT for export overseas.

https://hs.e-to-china.com/hs-code-7210-d_3-t_2.html

Electrolytic tinplate products are under HS code 7210 which is within the range of the removal of the of export rebate.

https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/china-to-remove-export-tax-rebates-on-146-steel-productshrc-affected-not-crc-and-hdg-1197361.htm

Good news to Perstima to increase profit margin on their products.

https://eurometal.net/china-cancels-export-rebates-for-most-steel-products/

Perstima may not be able to pay high dividend as cash is needed to fund the new factory in Philippines. Expecting dividend of 30 cents to 50 cents when Philippines factory starts contributing profit.

Accumulate Dlady at the prices 10 years ago while skimmed milk powders has moved into high level.

Tinplate selling price remains moving upwards as stated by Johortin in the latest quarterly report.

Prospect - Johortin
Steel price continue its uptrend and with the higher raw material costs, we will have to adjust our selling prices accordingly and this will create a challenging business environment for tin cans.

Nice story. Play safe with MBMR.

One of the Fong siling picks YOCB.

Tenova chooses ABB automation and drives systems for new tinning line plant in Southeast Asia

https://new.abb.com/news/detail/73515/tenova-chooses-abb-automation-and-drives-systems-for-new-tinning-line-plant-in-southeast-asia

New Tinning Line With Insoluble Anodes For High Quality Strip To PERSTIMA, In The Philippines

https://theenergia.com/new-tinning-line-with-insoluble-anodes-for-high-quality-strip-to-perstima-in-the-philippines/

Paperplane. Perstima would do well due to increasing of tin plate prices for the past few months. Bảo Steel has announced increasing of the selling prices early this year. Further more, Perstima is expected to complete its new factory in Philippines at the end of 2021.

Mr. Tan,

This is my stock picks for 2021.
1. Perstima - 30%
2. Kossan - 30%
3. Harta - 30%
4. F&N - 5%
5. Dlady - 5%

Thank you.

China medias have changed entirely since Xi taking over the helm of CCP. You would be laughing when reading their news titles.

Deng slogan: 韜光養晦
Jiang slogan: 悶聲發大財
Hu slogan:不折騰

Xi slogans:
- 厲害了我的國
- 超英趕美

- 中国放一大招 美国傻了 俄罗斯惊呆了 日本吓尿了 欧洲倒吸一口冷气台湾岛内哀叹一片，韩国羞愧了，朝鲜沉默了，菲律宾跪了，越南老实了，印度媒体惊呼中国已成世界第一!
- 要出大事了，中国又一法宝让美恐惧，世界都看傻了，日本彻底怕了
- 中国秘密武器无敌了，北京下死手，震惊了全世界，美国吓尿了
- 中共军方又一技术取得领先，美国已失去优势,中国56大逆天项目，美看完彻底佩服?

https://www.aboluowang.com/2018/0109/1052160.html

US has admitted their biggest failure through influencing CCP to transform into democracy systems in the past 40 years. The are awaken so they intended returning to cowboy now...no more preaching.

US 1 trillions bond....is it enough to cover economy losses and more than 100k dead in US? Are you expecting top 20 countries governments to tell their own folks that it was all their own government fault or mistakes for not taking prober actions in combating coronavirus, and therefore, the loss of economy due to lockdown is unavoidable and must be born by their own folks?
No country dare to make a compensation from China except US. US is now leading all of them to make the claims. Can CCP simply get away by saying that the virus come from US?

US is not kidding with CCP anymore. They are preparing for this by putting into actions. CCP don’t even dare to make noise when Navy P-8 With Secretive Radar Pod Surveils Massive Chinese Naval Base In South China Sea.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33482/navy-p-8-with-secretive-radar-pod-surveils-massive-chinese-naval-base-in-south-china-sea

https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/us-b-1b-bombers-conduct-indo-pacific-activities/

Cold War is small matter. What people worry is hot war. It’s very difficult for US government to comfort their citizen as coronavirus dead keeps running up. They won’t put the entire blame to Trump but diverting it to CCP. US is leading the world to this direction and making a huge compensation. US would take this opportunity to.......Hard to escape this time.

It takes 2 weeks only to fill up most of the storage capacity. Demand slumped more than expectations. See what would happen another 2 weeks.

No easy to earn 1k subscription. When DJ goes up or down 1 or 2k, his subscribers keep asking for advice....sifu also pening. How to stand in such a volatile situation as it happens many times in the past few weeks? ...Unless you don't look at DJ movement. lolz

See how crude oil to perform in next month after enjoying the rebound rally party.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/no-place-to-go-oil-storage-filling-up-amid-collapsing-demand-excess-production-57865154

1998 was more or less regional financial crisis popped by hedge funds from western countries. This year is entirely different as taiko US leading the way to pump unlimited funds into the market.

KLCI index is heavily manipulated by local funds. We are more hardworking than him through focusing in individual company rather than koyang kaki waiting index drop below 1k.

We can’t discount the probability of the share prices to go down further after the company has announced their QR. There are many counters in Bursa. It doesn’t mean that all would be effected badly with poor outlook prospects. I am more interested with what US government would do in order to rescue the recessions or counter the unemployment more than 20 million in next few weeks.

Probability. Coronavirus is no more an interesting topic to us to make money now . We have to move beyond coronavirus. No mater how, we have to live together with the virus at least in the next 6 months.

Cari makan in stock market is not easy but also not that really difficult. It’s whether we can stand with the losses that keep happening especially to a trader. It’s no ending suffering until we are willing let it go nicely. Life is just like that in the stock market. No right or wrong at the time of making a decision ...play probability most of the time.

Feeling excited doesn’t mean that we would take action to buy during the fear period. Lolz

Pigs get slaughter because they don’t know they are being pigs in the market.
The point is how we lead (educate constantly) ourselves to interpret a situation which has a different conclusion with majority of the investors.

在牛市的狀況下, 一個好故事能把牛糞和工堆變成黃金。不但如此，在熊市回彈的想像力下，市場也能把牛糞和工堆變成黃金。

股市一直在眾多因緣之下而呈現不同的狀況．每個人解讀也有所不同，在同一個候能呈現三種不一樣的結論就是黃金、牛糞和土堆．