If indeed cure has been found those who sold won't be able to get cheaper than 1.36 tomorrow.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

Fellow JAKS investors. I would like to share with you all YET another silly mistakes i made and hopefully a lesson learnt for all. I was holding on to JAKS for so long but yet i sold a portion of my holdings above 1.40 due to Wuhan virus. Indeed, all JAKS holders could tell you to keep cool, fundamental intact, but in my 28 years in the market, i know when fear striked, everything would drop in the beginning. I set a target price to buy back at 1.25. Why 1.25? 1.18 is a strong support and a pull back of 20% from 1.51 would be around 1.21. I NEVER buy at support because i rather buy expensive than never bought any shares. However, on Friday morning, i didn't stick to my set action and was the sucker that supported JAKS at 1.36 and 1.35 at opening as i expected a rebound due to Dow overnight. Indeed, the regional markets rebounded BUT not Malaysia. So, yet again, i have to remind myself the following.
1. Don't sell out of fear. But if you have done so, stick to your strategy and don't get sway easily. This is particularly hard if you monitor market vigorously.
2. If you wanna sell in a crisis, make sure you sell within 10% of the recent top. Otherwise, the potential impact and potential buy back gain is limited.
Now, how far will JAKS drop? If i know then i would be GOD. I wouldn't dare to predict eventual impact of wuhan virus since i am not a virologist. Even experts can't agree on this. BUT, i can provide you facts about what happened in market before this.
FACTS. During crisis or economic down turn, share investors turn to UTILITIES stock. Why? water, electricity etc income stream is stable. So, unless you are not in stock market, in fact UTILITIES stocks will perform in bear market eventually. Just as YTLREIT actually moved up in 2018/2019 bear market because it's a dividend stock.
FACTS. JAKS power plant income will not be affect by Wuhan virus once it's operational. At the end, you buy a company due to it's income generation. Price will reflect that even in a bear market eventually. Of course, i am assuming that Wuhan virus won't become a pandemic that would kill half the world population. But worry not, if it does, 1 out of 2 readers won't be here to worry that anyway. Stay safe.

I doubt GE so smart. I incline to think it's the major shareholders trying to increase their shareholding in JAKS

Ricky Kiat bro DK66, from 2018 annual report, beside ALP, only GE have 8 million warrant.

Kukuman. I claimed Malakoff badly run not YTLPWR. I never said JAKS better run and that's why I put PE10, meaning that I presume JAKS worse run than Malakoff. I am not in power industry and from your comments, it seems like you know JAKS pretty well. Since your identity is anonymous, why not share your opinion on who's crocodile in JAKS? I am all ears. I presume you know? If you know and your identity is protected here and you are not willing to share but just general comments, I guess you are worse than crocodile you claimed.


Kukuman To claim Malakoff and YYLPower are badly run company is so arrogant and at the same time claiming Jaks is better run is so cock naive. Jaks is still untested animal on power generation business. Many crocodile are lurking within to skim the company lest you know and some are from the very top in the company. Pity

Morning. Since it's near CNY and nothing to do, I did google "What's IRR for coal power plant" and clicked on the first post that showed IRR. This is because lately, there were some comments on IRR 15%. As a business person, one would be concerned about return on investment. Higher risk/uncertainty, higher return. Lower risk/uncertainty, lower return acceptable. However, irregardless or how low the risk is, it should be higher than FD rate, otherwise, i better put in FD. Just a quick search and of course this case study is in developed country Japan, one would not invest in a coal power plant with less than 8% IRR. Of course, this investment carries some risk 1. capacity factor 2. fuel cost and Hai Dong doesn't. Well, what i am trying to establish is WHAT WOULD BE THE LOWEST INCOME JAKS could generate from HAI DUONG without much information publicly available. To me JAKS carries below risk.
1. Delayed or HAI DUONG is a complete hoax. (I guess that conclusion is bygone now. Unless someone believe you can fabricate satelite photos. Credit to CPECC not JAKS on the completion)
2. Operation risk. With BOT contract, Hai Duong doesn't carry much risk on coal price or capacity risk.
3. Experience. (I would be concerned if JAKS running Hai Duong but it's not)
4. JAKS management risk. Could ALP be a crook like many KLSE CEO? From my judgement, I think not but I have been wronged many times in my judgements. I would like to know what industry players say about him. Sarifah seems to know him??

So, as a business person, I would use FD rate as the minimum return that's acceptable for Hai Duong case. Hai Duong costs USD1.8B investment, at 4%, that's USD70mil a year. 30% stake would be USD21mil for JAKS. At forex 4, that's MYR84mil a year from Hai Duong before I would invest in such power plant.
With a badly run Malakoff at PE14 and YTLPWR now at PE16, I would say it's reasonable to put a safe PE10 to JAKS. At 4% return on Hai Duong, JAKS is worth around RM1.30 even at PE10? Not to forget while Evolve Mall and Pacific Star are both screwed up, they are still worth RM200mil even at hefty discount on book value.
While I believe RM250mil a year profit is achievable, I am feeling pretty comfortable after reviewing WORST CASE SCENARIO. JAKS has become No.1 in my portfolio. Having said that, never put all your eggs in one basket.
No good luck from me because I believe JAKS has nothing to do with luck.

https://www.renewable-ei.org/en/activities/reports/20191024.php
2. The internal rate of return (IRR) that is needed to execute coal power investment is 8% at minimum and is generally set at 10%. Taking investment in a new 1,300 MW Ultra-Supercritical (USC) coal power plant as the model and setting baseline case parameters, the IRR works out to be 8.7%. When market and policy trends are taken into consideration, there is little likelihood that these assumptions can be maintained as they are.

3. When capacity factor is the only baseline assumption that is changed, and it is set at the nationwide average of 69.5% in 2028, IRR declines to 6.0%. Even with the capacity factor maintained at 85%, if the electricity sales price falls to 8.0 yen/kWh, IRR declines to 3.3%. With the capacity factor at 69.5% and the electricity sales price at 8.0 yen, it is 0.9%.

Thanks Musang. Just for interest. I never short stocks. For day trade, I get better chance in casino


deMusangking windy,
my screen also shows which counters are allowed to be shorted!
Jaks, Insas,Inari are some that can be shorted!
17/01/2020 10:07 AM

Musang. I am using Tradesmart too. Under where? Volume tracker no eh?

deMusangking Windy,
i saw at my screen [RHBtradesmart]
IDSS vol 50000 IDSS value 69500

which i interpreted as sold at 1.29 [ 69500 divided by 50000]

May i know how you can see whether people short or not?

deMusangking some1 shorted 50000 units at 1.39!
see whether he will be shot or not!!!???

Musang. Glad you made money. Wonder whether you were in Genting? I was there and eventually break even and had a fun time, at the table. Not ah moing.
Glad to see you made money from KKB. KKB will be a long term hold but i bought too little, it's insignificant to my % gain. 1.80 sellers kena sapu, obviously by big players.
Lately saw a funny blog. Saying that Carimin & Uzma no match for Dayang. Indeed Dayang is more efficient but i believe anyone in O&G earning more than RM10k salary a month knows that Dayang & Uzma are in different business segments. Really laugh die me so called old man try to be oil & gas expert. Also, oil rig average USD800m??? If you do your home work then you know a well head cost RM100m there about. Otherwise, KKB secured 3 WHP recently should be RM5B??? For once i wished old man is dead right. Lately, Dayang blogs so frequent, i smell something fishy like Hengyuan or JAKS previously

Sorry Musang. I made mistake. KKB currently valued at RM450m. So, RM20m should be another RM0.80 to RM1 on share price. Sorry, my mistake

Musang. Will reply you since i like you. RM20m PE10 already RM2. Traditional business is seasonal. That's why Dato ventured into O&G. His saliva has been dripping for many years as outsider. Dato is a tough businessman to deal with. No good if you wanna do his business but good if you are shareholders.

O, i missed out. Hibiscus also on my radar.

Hi JAKS forumers. Please allow me side track a bit and promote KKB here. I know many are keen on O&G stocks. Personally, i am monitoring a few but either the valuation not attractive for me or it's just not the right time yet. Below are list of O&G companies i monitor. Currently, i have only bought KKB. I would have bought their shares even at 1.56 recently but due to the iranian incident, i actually managed to buy at 1.40 range. Now, i didn't buy much as % of my portfolio. I share here because i only share in JAKS forum and i am hoping for you to buy and push up the price of KKB. I am not helping you.
List of O&G companies i monitor. Yinson, Dialog (Which i will buy with 30% price correction), Carimin, Uzma (Monitoring, undecided as i don't know them well), Sapura (Wait till they turn profitable. I have a pretty good idea when this gonna happen but i won't tell until i have bought.)
KKB. Now why KKB? If you wanna know what KKB does, check it out. Their current main business i can't comment much as it's not my field of expertise. However, my understanding is that it's considered a niche in Sarawak and their business would be pretty consistent. While fluctuate, KKB should comfortably make RM10-30mil from their traditional bread and butter. Now, i bought KKB is because of their Oceanmight O&G business. If you are keen in O&G stocks, presumably you have read Petronas outlook 2020-2022. The main benefactors in next 3 years seem to be HUC contractors and fabrication yards. The rest i would say have seen peak earnings unless they are into overseas business. I like KKB because of few reason. 1. Moving forward, Malaysia new platforms mainly consist of small well heads as you can see from Petronas report. Since big platforms only MMHE & Sapura can handle, small WH means more business opportunity for KKB. 2. Now, more WH doesn't mean KKB will get it. Well, for those who in the know, for projects in Sarawak water, only 2 potential bidders. KKB and Brooke. From KKB recent announcement, KKB SAPU all WH projects in Sarawak water. Brooke Dockyard eats grass. 3. KKB has been delivering WH projects on time. On time delivery means capability and no cost overrun. 4. The boss, Dato, hands on in the business. When the owner monitor closely, you get better performance. 5. They have gone thru the learning curve process and whatever mistakes made will become knowledge in future. So, unlikely they will incur unexpected losses from projects. Initially, KKB made a lot of blunder, which is normal when one ventured into new business.
While noone has a crystal ball about O&G business in the future, it's safe to say that there are an average of at least RM200m tender per year as minimum for Sarawak water alone. So, i would safely assume KKB could easily make RM20m a year in the future deriving from Oceanmight venture.
I have no target price and will not reply any queries. Good luck. I am not helping you and just wanna push up KKB price.

Morning. I fully agreed with Philip Greta analysis. Now, on KYY, you missed my point. He could raise doubts on JAKS just like anyone else, but it's his approach and motives I detest. As I highlighted, WHY was he vigorously promoting JAKS while selling concurrently? Why suddenly KYY from ultra positive to ultra negative in JAKS within few months?? Initially I thought he might had insider information's that rest of us not knowing. That was my concern. Otherwise, KYY just acted like a disgruntled husband that talked all bad about his ex wife that he married for 20 years.
I am heavily invested in JAKS and if you read my previous comments, i did say JAKS management incompetent with property development and if the power plant was run by them, i would have sold my JAKS long ago. That's why in my previous comments i did mention that i would urge JAKS management to stop all other operations and sit on Vietnam power plant. I did further say if JAKS management don't do that, we as shareholders could kick them out. Appoint me CEO, i take salary RM1m and every month i visit Vietnam once and won't do anything else. ALP doesn't own 51% of JAKS as far as i know unless i ws wrong. If JAKS continue on other loss making business and i couldn't kick him out, then i will be the first to sell JAKS.
On don't count eggs before they hatch, in a way, that's the essence of share investment. Base on our investment acumen, we try to predict what's the prospect of 1 company future. When KYY said he expected Dayang to earn more just because Petronas gonna continue pumping oil, that's PROJECTION too. And honestly, that logic if come from a 20s investor I could understand but I won't label a superinvestor with such generalised comment.
I did wait and see on Dialog when they were awarded Pegerang terminal. While I wasn't skeptical of Dialog's ability, I told Pegerang was too big an investment for Dialog. So, I told myself, let's wait and see the progress first. By the time I see that, WOW, Dialog really gonna pull it off, the PE of Dialog is already high and I now own 0 share in Dialog. That's what risk free wait and see reward is. If one want risk free investment, either you put in bank FD or those pyramid scheme that most Malaysian say sure WIN one.


Philip Greta In a way kyy did not say don't buy jaks. He said don't buy jaks now, but buy it when there is more clarity on the business entity jaks.

This part I totally agree.

Everyone who buy jaks now buys it on the certainty that the power plant will complete and handover and run handsomely.

At 85% completion, it will very well complete and run.

But my perspective from discussion with cfo is this.

I wanna seek some business advise from i3 readers here about my company's business prospect and whether i should close down the business. The situation like this.
I was young and ambitious and in 2012 tried to venture BIG. So, i ventured into into a business dealing with a total gross value of RM11,000. Because of my incompetence and inexperience, oh shit, i probably gonna lose RM1,000 to RM3,000 on this venture. I know i was too ambitious and i am really not that smart lah. However, maybe stupid people got stupid luck, around the same time, i struck a gold mine. A China man came to me and told me he wanna used my company for a venture and promised me can make RM1500 to RM2500 a year minimum and guaranteed for next 25 years. But i really having sleepless night lah with this potential RM1k to RM3k total losses and since the guaranteed profit only gonna come by second half of 2020 or 2021 till 2046, i really think i should close down this business and run away. Very smart for me to do this right?

I have stopped commenting in JAKS forum because basically i believe most details being covered and also so many bitterness here. However, seeing KYY's blog, i can't tahan but to post here again. I was one of the initial JAKS investors (I am not speculator) who bought at average price of RM1.60+ and lowest it went to 0.40 and had a paper loss of 75%? I was targeting RM2 to RM3 price and expecting reasonable price gain as I was into JAKS utilities. At lowest, i lost millions!!! At current price, i actually making a slight profit. In fact, i have added more shares since DK66 report. The only thing i have sold for the last few weeks were JAKS-WB and that's because i was transferring to JAKS shares. Reason i convert is due to liquidity.
Now, i could understand a lot of bitterness here for those who had sold JAKS at low price. It's human nature to want JAKS remained low to prove we made the right decision. Well, honestly, i was doubtful whether to hold on JAKS or not till DK66 report. As some highlighted here, if it was so good, why the price never up? But i guess the progress update from Chinese can't be fake right? If you in doubt, you can always go Vietnam have a look? Yes, there are still crooked Chinese companies but same as Malaysia companies too. But the large corporate companies in China are way ahead of Malaysia companies already in term of corporate governance. You don't become world no. 2 by being crook.
Now, the few so called "promoters" here. Personally, i can't find any faults in their sharings. Could their ESTIMATION and CLAIMS be wronged? Always possible. However, their estimations are similar to mine only more optimistics because i always like to have a discount factor of 20% or more. IF a promoter shared informations becasue they genuinely believe in it, i WON'T blame them. Because they are not GOD and they claimed with good faith. Then, it's up to our investment and life expereince to evaluate any flaws in those claims. Which is what DK66 said.
Now, i detest people who knowing provide fake info and that's KYY. Why i say so? Simple logic everyone can witness in JAKS. When he was writing positive blogs on JAKS, he was unloading JAKS at the same time. Now, i call that a CROOK or typical what Chong Kah does. Well, if KYY kept silent and unload JAKS, i had no issue because he has no obligation to forewarn me before he sold but by encouraging JAKS investors about not losing faith in JAKS but concurrently selling?? Now, i would tell such people go to HELL. After he has cleared his JAKS, straight away he bad mouthed JAKS. Was there any fundamental difference in JAKS business within the few months period? If no, how can you suddenly turn 180 degree just because you lose money?
So, readers, in our life, it's already to make mistakes, i have made a fool of myself many times but if you could learn from it when you were young and move on, you will become better.
Now, if you read KYY previous blog, he claimed from his expertise being in construction sector that JAKS got good chance for the RM50m BG? Well, we all know now what's the result. Now, if KYY genuinely believe so, then i don't blame him but it would only show that he is not as expert as he claimed.
Now, i am in O&G, while i dare not claim i am expert but i would like to share with you all on Dayang's future earnings. Dayang is my long term customer and i have high regard on Dayang's management. However, i can't really see much higher earnings going forward. O&G has not really recovered for most players and for Dayang to achieve current earnings already a big credit to them. I don't dare to put a price to Dayang because a share could trade at PE 10, 20, 30 or even 100. I could only say that if you expect their profit gonna increase 30%, then unlikely. If another 10% to 20% increase, i salute already. I sold my Dayang very early and too early so whether i am sour grape or not it's for you to judge

DK66. Indonesia power plant is cheaper i believe? Of course we need to take into consideration that Vietnam Hai Duong profit is guaranteed? Indonesia guaranteed?

As the famous quote "I don't need you to buy JAKS to push up the price, i am just a minority share holder". I am helping you here! I would like to share some experiences i learnt in my investing years through painful mistakes. If you still can't see the HUGE potential of JAKS by now, wasting my saliva.
Lesson 1. In Bursa, many conman CEOs. So, if you are skeptical of JAKS because you reckon JAKS CEO is a conman, fair enough. Honestly, i don't know him and i just ASSUME he is not conman from his action so far. It's something i rely on in day to day business dealings of mine. We are not ang mo, not everything in black and white. So far, i do made wrong judgements, but not too severe. So, i would say i have learnt much from being con all this year and hopefully will remain prudent and wise.
Lesson 2. In Bursa, many ambitious CEOs ventured into new businesses and new countries. Well, we all know that if businesses are so easy, everyone would be a billionaire then. It's risky business. New ventures doesn't automatically equal to profit
Summary
1. If a listed company announced they are venturing into something new, don't be too excited and jump in just because you think it's very profitable sector. Ya, people might make money but not you. Most importantly, most of these companies are using the news to lure in SUCKERS! Yes, I am referring to you.
2. Invest not in sectors or cycles but in person. Doesn't matter how good the future prospects are if you have a crook running the companies. We are not short of crooks in Malaysia or Bursa for that matter. There are a handful of good CEOs and properly run companies in Bursa but unfortunately, they are all selling at very high PE now. I could understand why because the mutual funds don't have much choices in BURSA.
3. Don't blindly follow analyst report ESPECIALLY on small companies. You know how much an analyst get paid? I am not looking down on them but experience one would have move on to higher paid job. They rely on the companies to feed them research materials. Eg. below news abstract from the edge about Yong Tai. If you bought this share based on analyst TP, you would be losing your pant. Now, I am not saying this Datuk is a crook, I don't need him. I am just referring to Encore Melaka and Impression Melaka live performance. I have been to Melaka like 4 times? Now, am I the only one or majority of common sense Malaysia would know Melaka can't make it?? Even if build in KL also won't achieve that figure lah. Now, I am not saying he is a conman, just WRONG projection.
There are still many lessons I have learnt over the years and I am getting sleepy so gonna stop here. Well, what has this gotta do with JAKS?
Well, for one. If you are the skeptical one about conman CEO, are you blind or what? The power plant is almost finished leh, it's not talk only. What more proof you want or tell me what doubt you have??
For those who are skeptical about China conman, hey, I do agree with you many are. But it's not just China man lah, many Malaysian businessmen are also conman leh. So, you need to judge lor.
I believe in DK66 analysis and his sincerity. I salute OTB for buying at the same time as his subscriber. Honestly, that's something I can't achieve myself as I would reckon is my privilege to buy before hand. I believe ALP is a decent CEO, otherwise he would have estimated sky high power plant profit by now. With JAKS property shit behind, only rosy picture ahead. As OTB highlighted, JAKS assets in Malaysia alone worth few hundred millions and me like him, consider it 0. If you still can't see JAKS potential by now, sorry, you are too dumb to teach.

(DATUK Wira Boo Kuang Loon, CEO and executive director of Yong Tai Bhd, warns against being too optimistic. The 46-year-old learnt that the hard way when he was planning Encore Melaka, a state-of-the-art theatre in the property developer’s ambitious tourism-themed Impression City in Melaka.
Boo had projected that the much-anticipated Encore Melaka live performance could generate about RM140 million in ticket and merchandise sales as well as a net profit of RM50 million to RM60 million a year.
He had aimed for Yong Tai to achieve a market capitalisation of RM1 billion by the end of last year. Back then, it seemed like a realistic target as the group was valued at more than RM700 million.)

OTB. TQ for your complement. I noticed that in Carimin too. Coincidently, Carimin and JAKS seems to have same interested Cong Kah. I wonder who? :)

Ans :
Most of the times, insiders sell heavily is to allow chong kah to buy shares cheap.
I believe the share price of Jaks will go up very high in next few months or next 1 to 2 years.
You are very sharp, I believe you should do well in your share investment.
Good example, Carimin.
Insider keep on selling non-stop at < 0.80, what is the price now ?
Thank you.

Personally, i would be concern if substantial shareholders sell. However, if you understand business and investment, then you would understand not to take everything at face value. Just like when i first started investing in KLSE, i bought low PE stocks. Guess i make lots of money?
1. Is the substantial shareholder running day to day business? Or is he just nominee or political connected? If it's EPF or KWAP, then don't bother. They buy and sell all the time
2. Is he short of cash? If this is the case, then good to bottom fish (Like JAKS 1 year ago) because no fundamental change in business operation. Of course if he is key figure in the company, i would be concerned too. A person with financial difficulty won't have heart for business anymore
3. In many cases, the sale is to transfer shares to market makers/chong kah.
In the case of JAKS with Dato Razali, i notice following pattern. I could be wrong. There are substantial buyers waiting. When selling dried up, only then would queue higher. But he won't chase up the price, now i know why, because there are another 11 mil shares to collect.
At the end, share price would be determined by earnings of JAKS. Assuming you own 1% of JAKS now, which would cost you RM9mil. The return for the next 25 years would be RM50mil according to DK66 analysis. Now, it's not SPECTACULAR return for many people, but it's definitely good for me. Power plant income is consistent and almost risk free. Risk free return you get is 4% now with FD. Hence, i would definitely push for 80% income distribution as dividend as this would benefit not only ALP but would propel share price higher.
As ALP highlighted himself, this is a rare gem. I don't expect JAKS to get such profitable venture easily in future. Just like i don't expect HIBISCUS could find another North Sabah asset at dirt cheap price also. Fire sale only happens during crisis

Sorry, out of topic here. This is for benefit of JAKS investors also into O&G. I have just read Petronas Outlook 2020-2022. Well, best case scenario are activities same as 2019 but most except MCM are gonna be lower. So, for those of you expecting rosy outlook for O&G in 2020, just becareful. No wonder i feel that O&G counters have been on selling pressure lately. That's only for Malaysia so if companies involved in overseas then i have no comments. The OUTLOOK is publicly available from Petronas website i believe. That's all i gonna say and won't answer anymore queries. Do your own study.

btw, 100% agreed on your statement about management credibility. However, as I highlighted before. Since ALP doesn't own more than 50% of the company, we can make a different with our voting power if he is not acting in the best interest of the company.

Hi Nagachan. TQ for your contribution as it's helpful for us to hear from someone in the industry. Disagree with your statement below. Yes, i know it's paid in USD but JAKS is a Malaysia company. Profit USD 200m x 4.2 and Profit 200m x 4 will be a 5% reduction. So, JAKS profit will be affacted by the strength of Ringgit or vice versa. Anyway, at current share price, even forex of 3.8 won't matter

USD fluctuations not a concern as the tariff is index to USD even though is paid in Dong.

DK66. TQ for your detailed and great FA. I wished i could be as meticulous as you. However, some questions below.
1. My understanding is that this BOT should protect JAKS from coal price fluctuation right? meaning if coal price higher, Vietnam govt will compensate more but if coal price drop, JAKS will get less also? I am fine as profit is visible instead of relying on commodities fluctuation?
2. On what basis you benchmark on O&M cost?
3. Interest expenses of 6% i reckon is high for a borrower like CPECC. However, i am fine being conservative
4. What would be the pay back period for JAKS to incease shareholding by another 10%?
IRR of 12% alone is pretty high for power business. I guess JAKS is lucky because USD was around 3.1 then. Forex gain alone already 30%. However, USD fluctuation against MYR will determine how much JAKS profit in MYR term for the next 25 years. Now, i in dilemma whether i want Ringgit stronger not haha. This power plant deal is a once in a life time deal and ALP will become top 50 richest man in Malaysia

Btw, i also wanna give advise to those who rely on IB reports. I use them as a guideline but if you wanna make exceptional return, IB reports never help. Their earning estimates are more accurate for blue chips but for small companies you better take it with a pinch of salt, especially from small IB. I am speculating but it's possible for small listed companies to bribe analysts to write favourable reports.
Now, IB is valueing JAKS with SOP currently since management never wanna reveal potential earning from PP. Now, i have seen a lot of conman CEO willing tell you skyhigh future prospects so share price will fly, have you seen a conman CEO try to fry share higher by not revealing potential earnings? That for me is a good sign actually

By now, all facts have been presented by DK66. I suspect he is INSIDER hehe with his indepth knowledge. Same for Sharifah. Whether you wanna buy or not, it's up to you. But very soon, in 1 year time, result will show whether DK66 is right or not. I have bought a lot more during recent correction though i really shouldn't have because i have committed too high a weighting on JAKS. However, since 5-6 other stocks i fancy is selling at premium PE, i got no choice but to buy more JAKS. No point to everyday come here and chant UP or DOWN.
All factual contributions are highly appreciated. As DK66 highlighted, i want people to prove me wrong too but with facts. I try not to be defensive just because i have bought a lot of JAKS. It's not easy but learning to be subjective

Newbie. How did you buy JAKS in the first place? If it was toss of a coin, then decide with toss of a coin too. Otherwise, you need to put in efforts to understand how much JAKS is worth. By relying on others will bring you no where in life. Either being your career, your life or your wealth. We seek advise, opinions, sharings, but put in our own hard work

Posted by MarketNewbie > Nov 19, 2019 10:22 AM | Report Abuse

I hold JAKS almost 1 year
is time to go?
or stay ?

OTB. You are a conscientious remisiers. Most remisiers not only want contra players but try to encourage them to trade more because only then they get volume and income. I think these remisiers and worse than market operators many people loathe. As you highlighted, noone asked you to buy. Market operators just created volume and YOU, because of you greed, traded. Same as i don't despise casino but those junket who encourage people borrow to gamble.
Same for people who promote margin financing and never highlight the risk of it. Thumbs up to kcchong for his blog sharing


Posted by OTB > Nov 19, 2019 10:02 AM | Report Abuse

I had been a remisier > 20 years.
I never see any contra player win big.
I saw a lot of bankrupts because they played contra.
To be honest with you, the one that win big is to buy and hold.
I will tell nicely to my clients to close their trading accounts if they played contra.
They are a liability to me at the end of the day.

Why you never try to time the market. (Average traders)
Once upon a time, there was a young and naive freshman out of university and armed with financial and technical analysis knowledge and 2 consecutive years of ranking in stock market contest (in the 90s, not Malaysia) His idol was George Soros and aspired to be HIM. He believe he would make million by the time he is 30 and hence he started to trade in the KLSE with his RM60k.
Cut the story short. This naive young man ended up with more than RM100k in contra debts and took 4 years to pay it off. You can never win with contra. Why? Simple. The operators have all the information you don't. Eg. Today is T3. I gotta sell by 4.50pm or else by T4, i couldn't pick up (which i don't have money anyway) and gotta sell by 930am. And i would wait and hope for miracle. 9 out of 10 times, the share price won't move. And ironically, most time, it moved after i sold. Why? That's because the operators have all the available info about T3 and T4 outstandings in every dealers. You CAN'T beat them being a contra player.
And if you try to play smart by waiting for force selling, you can forget about it too. The market operators would know where you queue and queue higher than you if they want the shares and once contra players absorbed, share would move higher.
So, if you are an average traders (Which i am sure you are not), just buy with whatever money you have into a company whose shares are undervalued or with potential and sell when it reaches your target price. Buy at whatever price which is lower than your target price

OTB. With your followings, you can punish whoever don't listen by depressing their share price. Of course, gotta discuss this matter nicely lah. I guess the previous 30% shareholder were to cocky with his demand. Honestly, if i were ALP, i won't want him on BOD too because he felt like giving instruction type. One mountain can't have 2 tigers. And credit needs to be given to ALP since he was the one who secured Vietnam PP. Got money doesn't mean you DAI SAI

Ans :
I had a private meeting with Andy when I visited power plant in Vietnam.
I told him to stop all losing money business in Malaysia and focus on Power plant only.
I hope he will remember and listen to my advice.
Thank you.

Good. All these hype about solar projects...Payback is easily 20 years. I sell solar system

Posted by DK66 > Nov 18, 2019 2:25 PM | Report Abuse

The solar MOU lapsed on 30 Sept with no announcement of extension.

I disagree with Nikmon. I want ALP just to be contented with this Vietnam PP. If ALP buys another company, it signals conman to me Eg. Buy a RM100mil company and kickback RM50mil. It's common in KLSE. Green energy is a hype. You know what's the payback period? Better put money in FD. Unless ALP can find an investment with payback period less than 10 years, otherwise just go play golf and i happily pay him up to RM5mil salary package a year. Otherwise, i will be the first to sell JAKS.
Highlight once again, small money go after WB. Once the WB kena cornered, no more sellers and will move faster than mother


Posted by Nikmon > Nov 18, 2019 1:32 PM | Report Abuse

This is what happening now......

PP and pacific about to complete.

APL acquire million of share from open for what???

APL announce green power...he confirm need call money to go green..

Lately JAKS WB has lack behind mother. If you intend to buy 10k or less, go for WB. I would say maximum 10mil WB available in the market freely. Rest are hold by major shareholders. WB can't buy much as it's illiquid

Very true. But JAKS WB only had a take up rate of 37.52%. I was one of the suckers. The biggest sucker was ALP, who fully subscribed.


DK66 At today closing price, even those who bought Jaks at 1.77 and subscribed for the warrants have made half cent gain.

1.36 + (1.08-0.25)/2 = RM1.775

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/235332.jsp

Typical win a candy lose a house profile. Make up how many % of KLSE?


Icon8888 you will never get rich like this

Posted by hng33 > Nov 14, 2019 11:02 AM | Report Abuse

bought back jaks at 1.22-1.23

please don't ignore JAKS WB. Big money goes for mother. Small bullet buys JAKS WB. Support support ah

OTB. By 2021 cash flow should be stable? i am looking for JAKS to give dividend starting 2022. Of course, price should appreciate too. Not logic it shouldn't

My response to JAKS being dividend stock and not capital appreciation.
First of all, JAKS shouldn't be at RM1.17 if Hai Dong is a real deal at this stage of the constrcution. As stipulated by some about how much JAKS should worth. Eg PE10 so derives RM3-RM5 range. However, if all stocks would trade at PE10 or higher, then stocks selection would be as easy as 123 and you won't have a chance to buy below PE10 stocks then. Bear in mind they are many professionals doing full time and next time AI. Once the power plant operational, you would see JAKS income for next 25 years being DULL. Same every year. So, don't expect JAKS share price for capital gain once it's reach it's RM3-RM5 range. However, if JAKS is making RM230m a year but give 0 dividends, what's good for me? Even if i am a 1% shareholders, what benefit i get apart from the freebies i get from AGM?? Even if JAKS trades at PE1, so what? That's the reason why MUI Property, as company that was promoted by Calvin Tan just won't move. For me, i won't buy MUI Property even though i agree with Calvin Tan's analysis. What he missed out was the fact that the majority shareholder is an old folk who doesn't give a damn about this company. He is too old and too rich to care. Only way MUI could fly is when it's for sale and i foresee this won't happen until the old folk change his mind (And i am not in the business to curse his death)
I believe the most important factor to watch out for is management and not business sector or potential. Eg. Reach & Hibiscus both into E&P, and look at Reach share price now? I don't have a scientific method to identify good management but i reckon few signs of bad management.
1. High CEO salary (not for JAKS)
2. Keep taking loss making contracts. Because even company loses, someone could benefit (as far as i know JAKS stops?)
3. CEO being a minority shareholder and won't add position (ALP added substatially at market low. I am not sure whether it's a coincidence of such drastic price drop or it was engineered to kick out the 30% shareholder. If yes, i give credit for such successful coup)
When JAKS reaches RM3, what's next? For you, you can go and find your next 100% gains stock, but for me, i will keep it for dividend as i can't afford price fluctuation for my retirement. When i retire, i just need stable and constant income so that i could 1 day go Genting ahmoiing like Musang

deMusangking tomolo will hit 1.20?
Hi Musangking. I consulted my god. This is the answer.
The shaman said he sees big players are trying to flush out sellers at resistance level 1.18 - 1.21. If sellers done, price will go up. If sellers persist, price won't move. So, are you one of the big players? I just dumb dumb hold
BTW, musang out in Johor?

I wanna share with you my biggest success story (in term of RM gain) in Hibiscus as i foresee the same gonna happen to JAKS. Now, i am a minority shareholder in JAKS, JAKS turnover is millions of shares everyday, so i don't need you to buy to push up the price. I merely HELPING YOU!!! (Sounds familiar??)
Hibuscus. I bought roughly in June 2017 after Hibiscus announced they bought SSPC assets for USD25mil. I invested almost 50% of my allocation at an average price of 0.40 . In fact, not long after the news, the share price actually dropped instead of going up. Why? And why was i so confident and bought so much?
Well, my reasoning for buying was simple. Hibiscus acquired SSPC assets at wholesale price. They could recoup the USD25mil in 1 to 2 years time. Now, if you can show me such investment (Except MBI lah haha), i gonna sell my pants to acquire it. Of course, later i realise WHY the price didn't move initially and for good reasons. Many oil & gas people, including Shell people, reckon the deal won't go thru because Hibiscus was a NOBODY. They think Petronas gonna cancel the deal. Then, after the deal seems to go ahead, they were sceptical about HIBISCUS's capabilities. All these were valid factors for them and a lot of oil & gas people missed out the rally which started in September 2017 and the rally peak after one year in Oct 2018. I sold all my HIBISCUS on 8th January 2018 at 1.00. Whereas i had planned to keep 1/3 shares.
Why i say i think there is similiarity in HIBISCUS and JAKS? Well, when JAKS announced about the power plant project in July 2011, my first thought was, another con man...I believe my skepticism was mutual. Just look at how investment banks valued JAKS? Most using sum of parts and keep a watchful eyes over Vietnam power plant. Hence, JAKS price target doesn't reflect power plant income at all. Well, to be honest, if the power plant is run by JAKS and not CECP, then i won't have invested in JAKS substantially. So, same for HIBISCUS, lots of skepticism. So, credit to DK66 on the reports. I think JAKS power plant is a confirmed deal. Also, JAKS price pattern seems so familiar to me for period after September 2017. (I shared once that due to finger itchy, i sold in 0.60s and bought back 0.80s) To me, JAKS price goes up definitely good. Even if it doesn't, i am fine. Because i see JAKS as a dividend stocks. As a low risk, low growth stock, i reckon it's not unreasonable to demand 90% income payout as dividend. As i highlighted too, if ALP disagreed, we can replace him. He doesn't hold more than 50% of the company, so we can do something. Now DK66 predicted 30%@RM239m (EPS 0.37) Let's be conservative and assume dividend declaration of 0.20 per share. At current share price 1.17, that's more than 16% annual return on my money. Hey, i am currently buying property at 5-6% rental yield and YTLREIT gives me 7-8%. At 16%, i think you need to be a fool not to buy.
Well, then, you might wanna ask, am i buying? JAKS and JAKS-WB now represent around 40% of my investment. I am resisting my urge to add more. Never put all eggs in one basket. In fact, my hand got itchy and added 90k JAKS WB at 0.64 and 20k at 0.92
Good luck to all JAKS investors

OTB. Probably the way i write get people misinterpret too

Wow. OTB. I was giving you praise and you interpreted as bad mouth. End of my comments on you.


OTB Posted by Windy1974 > Nov 4, 2019 3:32 PM | Report Abuse

While I don't know OTB, I have heard about his infamous accuracy in stock pickings. Thank god for the guy stopped ranting here in this forum about his bitterness against OTB. However, he pointed 1 thing correctly. Anyone who followed OTB advises, their gain would be at least 20% less than his. That's because he entered first. But hey, that's his credit for either having such followers or syndicate behind.

Answer :
You have no reason to bad mouth me since you said you don't know me. It is better for you to keep your mouth shut.

Assume I started with RM 100,000.00 in 2013.
2013 - 104% ROI - My total value is now RM 204,000.00.
2014 - 61% ROI - My total value is now RM 328,440.00.
2015 - 129% ROI - My total value is now RM 752,128.00.
2016 - 22% ROI - My total value is now RM 917,596.00.
2017 - 87% ROI - My total value is now 1,715,904.50
2018 - (42%) ROI - My total value is now 995,224.60
2019 - 147% ROI updated on 31/10/2019 - My total value is now 2,458,204.00.

Windy1974,
What do you think of the aforesaid result ?
Am I infamous accuracy in stock pickings ?

Thank you.
06/11/2019 12:18 PM

I write this not to discredit or put down people who uses TA. In fact, the reason I tried to sell JAKS at 1.10 or 1.11 was based on previous resistance level of JAKS. At the end, TA is based on human behaviour. If JAKS price touched 1.11 many times and retrace, then the next time SMART guys will sell at 1.10. Indeed, you would have been correct many times just as those who sold JAKS at 0.90 range because the sellers were abundant just recalled back to last JAKS QR. What I wanted to highlight is that, if you know JAKS is worth RM2 or more, by using whatever TA, what would be your potential gains? In my sharing previously, 3k vs 90k? Even if you are right 10 times, still I would be better off in the long run. Bear in mind, you read chart but also same for big funds and market makers. IF I were market makers, I WILL use TA to flush out sellers OR induce buyers. While I don't know OTB, I have heard about his infamous accuracy in stock pickings. Thank god for the guy stopped ranting here in this forum about his bitterness against OTB. However, he pointed 1 thing correctly. Anyone who followed OTB advises, their gain would be at least 20% less than his. That's because he entered first. But hey, that's his credit for either having such followers or syndicate behind. At least he is not KYY. I despise KYY because he kept posting articles that's UNTRUE to lure buyers. For example, he claimed JAKS would have a good legal case against STAR. I believed him since he was supposed to be an expert in construction? Well, you all knew what happened right.
Also, his comments on DAYANG. Now, this is JAKS forum but I really wanna laugh at his logic why DAYANG gonna has more profit growth in future. If you read my previous comments about DAYANG, I have great respect for DAYANG boss and management. But from what I could foresee, DAYANG profit growth is limited from here onward. In fact they have done magnificiently well considering most other O&G stocks actually still making losses. But at RM2?
I have been in the share market for more than 25 years and I still consider myself an amateur. Probably I am just dumb, that's all.



ChoCho i agree with Mr OTB on learning technical charting. I started by investing on IPO stocks, blue chips, dividend stock etc. and got caught up for years. After i learnt TA, risk is greatly minimised, buy and sell points accuracy is much shorter and better profitability. It took me like 3 years to truly understand how to draw and interpret charts.

I write this as a lesson learnt to share with readers and also as a reminder for myself.
Last Friday i queued 100k JAKS to sell at 1.10. My hand was itchy and just wanna do some trading. My long term target for JAKS is minimum RM2. Then as 1.10 was taken up, i moved to 1.11 and was not done eventually. As we all know, it closed at 1.07. My plan was to sell in the morning and buy back end of day.
Now, if 1.10 was executed, i would have bought back at 1.08 or 1.07 for a net profit of between 1.6k to 2.6k.
The question is, is it worth it? We always believe we know the timing of the market. If anyone really so good, have you heard of full time traders? (Condition that they show consistent profit in 3 years) If i were greedy and believe it would drop further, since today T3, that's it. Psychologically, i won't buy back at anything more than 1.10. If JAKS reaches RM2, then i would have earned RM90k less.
Then, you would counter, sure RM2 meh. Of course not. But when i bought shares, i based on fundamental and that's how i put my target price. If your don't understand fundamental, then forget about reading this.
Moral. Discipline. Once you set a target and execution plan, stick to it unless the company's fundamental changes. I once had a painful lesson. Finger itchy and sold Hibiscus in 0.6 range and bought back 0.8. Yet i am trying to do it again last Friday. Human never learns from their silly mistake.

JAKS so boring so i am contributing my part. JAKSWB 0.64 me yang buying haha.

The show starts. I buying now

DK66,
Thanks and have been helpful. I presume Nikmon is in construction so he would know ALP & JAKS better. Honestly, I have asked about comments previously about ALP but I didn't recall any comments from i3. Well, I don't blame abundant of skeptics with JAKS or ALP past records. Indeed, I wouldn't invest in JAKS if it's not because of the Vietnam Power Plant. Even with the VPP, I won't invest if it's run by ALP. (No offense ALP)
Now, as a businessman, I need to give credit to ALP for securing a USD2B power plant and getting a 30% share holding at virtually 0 cost?? (DK66, please verify how much JAKS needs to put in OWN money? When I said OWN money, I mean exclude profit from the EPCC contract. To me, JAKS is doing nothing to get that EPCC profit)
If I were ALP, I would admit defeat and just sit back and let the Chinese runs the business. I am being conservative, assuming RM120m net a year for 25 years = RM3B. This is super duper conservative figures because the plant cost RM8B to build. 30% of RM8B is RM2.4B. Who in the right mind would use RM2.4B to earn RM3B in 25 years?
Assuming JAKS just become an investment holding company. Total net income over next 25 years will be RM3B. Assuming ALP only holds 20% in JAKS (I assume he doesn't use nominees, which I doubt), by doing nothing, he will have a net worth of RM600mil in 25 years time. I own around 0.7% JAKS shares and my share of the profit would be RM21mil over 25 years. That's almost RM800k a year. Not bad right. Yeah, you bet I gonna push ALP to distribute dividends and sit there and don't venture into anything else.
Honestly, I am not keen about JAKS venturing into solar power generation. The return is very slow. ALP please stop doing more investment and you would become top 100 richest men in Malaysia.
BTW, I asked about potential LAD because in my industry, maximum 10% LAD

Windy1974,

I m sorry to disappoint you. I can't answer your questions on the potential LAD. I believe even the management will not know the the final LAD for the pacific star until it is finally completed and handed over.

RM50m BG losses fully already taken up in 2018. No more losses from BG except that the Star is now claiming on Jaks' corporate guarantee.

Evolve mall has a book value of RM320m as at end of 2018. Management guided a market value of RM400m.

Evolve mall already completed, no further capitalization allowed. Further expenditures on the property will be taken up as expenses except if it is related to expansion.

Jaks has made provisions for LAD almost every quarters. I suppose already verified by the auditors to be sufficient up to end of the respective quarters.

Net asset per share as at 30/6/19 was RM1.47. The goodwill of RM148m is questionable and the potential addition of RM308m to investment in JV. Net effect would be additional RM0.25 to net asset per share.

Hope I've helped.

Thank you

-------------------------------------
Windy1974 DK66. Appreciate if you could help answer some of below for me?
1. Star BG RM50mil losses have been accounted for in previous quarter right? So, no more future potential losses from BG except potential LD from Star? Maximum 10% LD?
2. Pacific Star & Evolve Mall. Anyway to know the cost of these projects? Or book value?
3. What's the potential maximum future LD for this 2 project? Presume Evolve Mall's completed so more like operational loss?
4. Net asset per share for JAKS currently RM1.34? Any possibility being inflated figure? If yes, potentially how much?
19/10/2019 8:57 PM
19/10/2019 10:06 PM

DK66. Appreciate if you could help answer some of below for me?
1. Star BG RM50mil losses have been accounted for in previous quarter right? So, no more future potential losses from BG except potential LD from Star? Maximum 10% LD?
2. Pacific Star & Evolve Mall. Anyway to know the cost of these projects? Or book value?
3. What's the potential maximum future LD for this 2 project? Presume Evolve Mall's completed so more like operational loss?
4. Net asset per share for JAKS currently RM1.34? Any possibility being inflated figure? If yes, potentially how much?