Happy New Year! Heng!! Ong!! Huat!!

Happy New Year! Heng!! Ong!! Huat!!

haha share worth 56sen? TR sold for less than 20% of it LOL
magician? why still have so many DANCING WITH WOLFES
no wander 7loss 2flat 1win LOL

of course i know csc never produce steel bar, lol
but astino have to buy steel product from csc to roll out metal deck,
pity those who buy without knowing his invested share is at which position in the industry
just like not all o&g same, some is explore,some refining, some support service, some shipping.....

one dump investor and his GANG promote SENDAI all the way from 1.40 DOWN to 0.70, lol

steel bar price increase is good for upstream manufacturer like CSCsteel, is bad for mid stream like astino, just like in aluminium, price up good for PMetal, worst for LBAlum

last but not least,
k2y involved, better be careful,as frend said if you buy his counter, you r DANCING WITH WOLF!!!

REMEMBER he is not oblige to tell you when he start sell

previously there is one research house promote Annjoo, and said the graphite electrode increase is not good for other long bar manufacturer
which use electrical arc furnace like masteel, southern n lion ind, but never tell you the graphite just consist of 3% of overall cost

南亚1亿拓养鸡舍业务
July 30, 2015


（吉隆坡29日讯）南亚（ASTINO，7162，主板工业产品股）计划于今年底，投资逾1亿令吉，拓展里蒙高渊（Nibong Tebal）的养鸡业务。

根据《星报》，南亚执行主席兼总执行长吴培腾（译音）表示，预计年底落实这项多系统农房计划，但若国家经济影响末季业绩，也需会搁置。


“如果计划落实，公司将在明年初动工。”

新的养鸡舍将落在里蒙高渊，一块占地约10英亩的地皮上。目前，南亚在该块地皮已设有一间农房生产设施。

同时，在雪兰莪、马六甲和彭亨均有一个养鸡舍。

推高营业额15%

吴培腾预测，这项业务将为2015财年，捎来15%或6000万令吉的营业额。不过，令吉疲弱推高进口原料成本，料本财年赚幅微跌。

该公司80%农业产品在国内销售，其余则出口至亚太平洋区域。

But there is not mentioned in the latest quarter report and annual report. either it is not materialised or the management not transparent. either one also no good.
please enlighten me if i miss out something

wa just 2weeks didnt come here, so jialat..
themagicmerlin, where r u, suma worth 56sen?
not just me not trust you, even tan sri sold his share less than quarter of that, lol
pity on those who believe such pump n dump,
yam kong

Long bar manufacturers is cyclical counter, need use cyclical strategy here, if treat all counters same and use same strategy, it cannot works

Long bar manufacturers is cyclical counter, cannot use blue chip investing strategy here

Ringgit strengthening is good for Masteel, it import in Usd, sale in RM

Why er kong seng delete his yesterday 8am comment? why ?

The gas presale is positive but is it a very good news? No. If you divide the sales by 15years and 365days, u get 6000 bpd, assume suma portion is 50% (since no indication in d announcement) is only 3000bpd. Very good deal? LoL
This reminds me that Reach once said it can get 20000bpd in 2018

Satan118,
Lol you cannot point out my mistake but you ask ppl out, shame on you, any way this is last response to you

eks usually promote counter when already fly like tekseng, signature , melati......... the list go on

one counter can only be invested if it has 3R, right business, right management, right price. daya dont have right business even though it already exit o&g shipping, the o&g cheminal & services businness daya currently have have a very thinny profit margin, less than 2%, the management is political link involve in PKFZ port klang free trade zone, usually have so so management capablelity

My doubt on RHB IB can seem in my comments on latest David blog article

I am saying the facts. Welcome if someone can points out is my findings is wrong so I can learning.
In fact, I also doubt RHB IB on the crack spread.
M sharing the fact not to the old guys, but to the newbies so that if they want to use margin in HY better think twice

Disclaimer: i am long and have position in hengyuan. it is good to hear both side of story. even though mogas mogas 92 spread cannot fully reflect HY refinery margin, some how it is fairly related. in Q32016, the refinery margin is good but HY made loss on d Q

Revisiting our warning on Hengyuan
Author: boostmy | Publish date: Fri, 25 Aug 2017, 07:28 PM

Revisting our Post

Back on July 31st, we published a post titled "3 risks to consider before investing in Hengyuan". We highlighted the risks regarding petroleum refining companies being, 1) Earnings could be too optimistic, 2) Crack spreads are highly volatile and 3) Hengyuan Shandong's low entry price.

2nd Quarter Results Disappointment

Today, Hengyuan reported its results for the second quarter which was lower both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. The reasons, in a nutshell, were 2 things:

One of its crude distillers was on temporarily shutdown for approximately 3 weeks for a planned minor turnaround maintenance in May 2017.

There were minor turnaround maintenance expenses and additional amortisation charges arising from new software/intellectual property assets.

Our Concerns were Valid

In our earlier post, we said that "refineries require maintenance – both planned and unplanned" and "Obvious reasons why Shell disposed of its Malaysian refinery could be due its unwillingness to invest further".

Looking at the reasons for the weak quarter, it is clear that our concerns were valid, i.e. there was a plant shutdown which was unaccounted for and there are higher than expected maintenance expenses as the refinery is aged.

In fact, Petron Malaysia announced its results yesterday that fell short of some estimates as well. The culprit - 25 days shutdown in one of its plants.

It is NOT our Desire for Anyone to Lose Money

We do not take pride in being right, especially when it concerns the possibility of investors losing money. Quite the opposite, when we highlight risks, we hope that we are wrong and everyone makes money.

Our intention is merely to highlight the risks when we feel that investors have become too euphoric. This is something we hope to continue doing in the future.

KT

https://boost.my

3 risks to consider before investing in Hengyuan
Author: boostmy | Publish date: Mon, 31 Jul 2017, 01:36 PM

3 risks to consider before investing in Hengyuan





1) Earnings expectations could be too optimistic

Historical data obtained from Hengyuan’s annual report shows that the company’s actual refining margin (FIFO) between 2012 and 2016 has been at a discount ranging from -32.75% to -132.41% against the average Singapore Mogas 92 UL Brent Crack Spread for each year (the benchmark indicator used for refining margins). While this could be due to inventory purchased earlier at different price levels, we find the disparity to be too large to be used accurately.

In some forecasts used, the discount rate was only -10%. This could overestimate earnings by between 22.75% to a 122.41%.

The current run up in share price is based on the notion that 2Q17 earnings and beyond will be better or on par with that recorded in 1Q17. However, the average Singapore Mogas 92 UL Brent Crack Spread for 2Q17 was in fact lower at 9.4, compared to 10.1 in 1Q17. Hence, earnings could come in below expectations in the coming quarterly announcement.

Meanwhile, another assumption used is by taking Hengyuan’s daily production capacity and multiplying it by the number of days in a year. This does not factor in the fact that refineries require maintenance – both planned and unplanned. The annual report shows that operational availability averaged about 90% between 2012 and 2016. However, we also see an increase in unplanned downtime from just 1.03% in 2012 to 7.2% in 2016. Why? Because as the refinery gets older, so does its equipment efficiency and reliability. Thus, we do not rule out the possibility of higher unplanned downtime in the coming quarters and years.



2) Crack spreads are highly volatile

Examining the average quarterly change (%) in crack spreads, we find that the volatility to be very high ranging from -36% to +46%. In 2Q16 and 3Q16, crack spreads fell -24% and -36% respectively. Such large swings appear to be the norm in the petroleum refining industry due to a variety of factors, chief among them are the cost of feedstock and supply demand dynamics.

While crack spreads certainly appear to on a positive trend since 4Q16, we are unsure as to how they will perform in the future. Investors should not discount the possibility of large downswings.

As such, we think that it would be unwise to use the price-to-earnings ratio to value the company, as earnings could be erratic.



3) Hengyuan Shandong’s low entry price

What is curious to us is not Hengyuan’s ability to purchase the 51% stake at RM1.92 but why Shell is willing to part with its stake at such a steep discount.

After all, Shell is a listed multinational and it is answerable to its shareholders. Surely, the disposal price must be justified. Obvious reasons could be its unwillingness to invest further, which begs further questions on the viability of these investments. Royal Dutch Shell has been in the industry for decades, most likely, they know what they are doing.



https://boost.my

regarding the crack spread, i could be interpret the charts wrongly, sorry

can we suggest to i3 Admin, when some one post blog, he must allow other to comments on his blog, this magicmerlin blog cannot comment, dont want to guess his motif, just be aware


Posted by mtr27 > Jan 19, 2018 05:12 PM | Report Abuse

Magic merlin disappear but sumatec up???

thank you very much David for this excellent article

from the charts, difference between both gasoil & mogas 95 and brent crude, we can seen 4th qtr is better than 3rd qtr, but one IB analys said that 4th Q crack spread is 20% less than 3rd Q, is he saying is true? Or is he lie?

From the charts different between both gasoil

without right issue this counter may kabut, it cannot raise fund through bank loan because no bank want to lend to Suma,and no body want to take its private placement either like Reach

assume brent oil $65 through out 2018, sumatec all in cost per barrel is $5 logistic + $20 opex&capex +$19.5 extracrion tax = $44.50
production 1000bpd, so profit=365*1000*($65-19.5)*4=rm30m

financial commitment =$103m ( all figure according to magician blog )= rm412m assume interest rate 7%, finance cost to serve interest 29m just enought to cover interest, hardly to pay loan prinsipal,

unless can increase the production and bring down the cost, will have cash flow problem like Reach

it tell you ramp up of production, but it does not tell you how much capital commitment it need to ramp up production
somebody say sumatec have'clean book' but suma already have financial commitment of 100m usd and never tell you other corporate shareholders pay on behalf first for the cost of production
somebody post blog but cannot comment on his blog, strange!!!

end of dec17, 1500bpd, end of mac18 2500bpd, end of aug18 3500bpd,
year 2019 only get 7500bpd, by the time crude oil fall back to $45
after Aramco get listed on middle of 2018 and american shale oil production make a come back lol

end of dec17, 1500bpd, end of mac18 2500bpd, end of aug18 3500bpd,
year 2019 only get 7500bpd, by the time crude oil fall back to $45
after Aramco get listed on middle of 2018 and american shale oil production make a come back lol

Magicmerlin said production 1000bpd, factgurus said 7500bpd, which is true? Or both also goreng?

although from 52weeks low, bear in mind is adjusted from 2 for 5 bonus issue recently

In fact it’s pp few times from below 20 cents all the way up, in fact latest pp start from 70 cents if my memory serves me well

The latest pp divided into 3 tranche, most likely this is third n final, so averagely, dilution is 3% no worry

thanks David

assume brent oil $65 through out 2018, sumatec all in cost per barrel is $5 logistic + $20 opex&capex +$19.5 extracrion tax = $44.50
production 1000bpd, so profit=365*1000*($65-19.5)*4=rm30m

financial commitment =$103m ( all figure according to magician blog )= rm412m assume interest rate 7%, finance cost to serve interest 29m just enought to cover interest, hardly to pay loan prinsipal,

unless can increase the production and bring down the cost, will have cash flow problem like Reach
Disclaimer: just for sharing, i have position in Hibiscus since 2016

long bar is like Pmetal, leonfb is like Lbalum n Arank, can we say that, sifus, pls share yr view?

Thank Davidtslim, Tqvm

Well done+1

Good write up.

b4b4 happy see u here,while i differ u in reach, v r same boat in bungaraya, bought last year, still holdinh it

very good article david,tks

the zero gearing statement is rather misleading.
reach owe mieh 650m with 180m bearing average 12% interest.
next 4Q minimum work programme commitment (expenses) is 145m

disclaimer: i have position in reach warrant, feel not a wise investment

the zero gearing statement is rather misleading.
reach owe mieh 650m with 180m bearing average 12% interest.
next 4Q minimum work programme commitment (expenses) is 145m

disclaimer: i have position in reach warrant, feel not a wise investment

very good info, thank you very much.
good news for those long masteel, ssteel & lionind

the above table have to use with very be careful if you going big on o&g.
reach got hutang. amount due to corporate shareholder is 264m, out of it 180m carry with high interest rate of avg 12%.
from recent QR, for 1H 2017, overall cost per barrel is usd50, minimum work programme commitment is 145m (opex + capex) in the next 4Q, avg 35m pQ

by comparison, Hibiscus, recent ttm, overall cost $36 pb, fy18 capex expected to be substantial though there is not indicative amount (less transparent compare to reach), with current brent price hibiscus enjoy good profit without consider capex

both reach & hibiscus have revalue their reserve and record one off negative goodwill gain

when we invest in a company, it shall have a capable management team, from this aspect, sumatech seem dont have such proven record yet

previously forumer Arcadi calculated armotisation per Q is 19m, while in QR it is only 8m, so is positive or negative, just yourself

quarter report filing to bursa shall me most reliable, from recent QR, for 1h2017, reach total cost is 95.4m opex+30m net finance cost = 125.4m, so all in cost pb = 125.4m/(182x3200)=rm215.3pb or $50pb.

minimum work program from 1/7/17 to 30/6/18 is rm 145m or 36pQ, 1/7/18 to 30/6/19 is 529m or 132mpQ, 1/7/19 to 30/6/22 is another 1161m,

current qtr revenue is only 41m, how many barrels need to extract just to cover minimum work program alone?

those invest in reach shall prepare to hold long,