Posted by jackfruit > 2017-11-28 22:51 | Report Abuse

Just why Lion Ind already resume production in their Antara steel plant in Johore and now getting ready to reopen their Banting plant . Why because mega infrastructure projects order already started coming in.

Posted by se7en > 2017-11-28 23:16 | Report Abuse

this is much more better than kyy analysis.

Posted by SALAM > 2017-11-29 09:37 | Report Abuse

KYY sees things as it happens unless it's a straight forward road where you know eg. there is an R&R 20km ahead on the left hand side. I believe he can't forcast like some very experienced and qualified economists. His luck on VS, Lat. etc...just sheer punting or guesswork even though he talked so much on ECONOMIC SENSE but in actual fact, he can't really practise it, Not easy ..

Posted by gladiator > 2017-11-29 09:48 | Report Abuse

Very good conclusion "Just ride the wave to the top, we may never know where the top is but on balance, there should still be a few quarters more to go."

Posted by KLCI King > 2017-11-29 11:23 | Report Abuse

Rebar price up so much but only so much profits registered by those millers, what if rebar price no up? My guess the result will be even so so only.

Posted by myongcc5 > 2017-11-29 14:41 | Report Abuse

Tis is very thorough n without bias analysis!
Well done!

Posted by occa888 > 2017-11-29 21:31 | Report Abuse

Interested to know if any impact from the new steel plants in the region such as Alliance

Posted by YLR33 > 2017-11-30 05:58 | Report Abuse

Well done+1

Posted by Lau333 > 2017-11-30 07:19 | Report Abuse

@ Occa888,you have raised a very pertinent point. The Alliance plant’s 3.5m tonnes capacity (Commencement of Operation Q12018) and an even bigger 5.0m tonnes steel plant in Samalaju, Sarawak (mid 2020) will definitely have huge impact given that domestic steel consumption is only 10.3m (2016 data) once they are fully operationalized. Export will be everybody’s salvation but we probably need another planet to trade with given the excess capacities worldwide! The key words here is “fully operationalized”. Given the initial startup difficulties, products qualification lengthy processes and distribution & marketing challenges, probably there is around a year before the impact will start to be felt.

Posted by occa888 > 2017-11-30 10:45 | Report Abuse

@Lau333 sorry lots of questions, just want to understand more how to distinguish between the steel players and who are competitors: Any info on Alliance's local/export %? The product range similar or difference from our big 4 steel plants? There was a post on cost structures difference between the big 4 by davidtslim (http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/david_masteel/139566.jsp), would be good to know if Alliance and Samalaju/ Bintulu got any cost advantage and product range difference over our big 4.

Posted by Lau333 > 2017-11-30 12:38 | Report Abuse

@occa888, Alliance is not a listed entity and hence scarcity of information for in-depth analysis. ANNJOO has 800 KTA, MASTEEL 500 KTA, LIONIND 2400KTA (some not in operation) & SSTEEL 180 KTA. Quoted from Lionind 2015 annual report.
It is unlikely any export strategy will work in the post-Trump era. So, it depends on its cost competitiveness, execution and bank balance at its parent companies.. Last check it is 2 largely unknown SOE from Guangxi province, not the hub of steel making giants in China. End of the day, it is still about cost-competitiveness. Unfortunately, the scale of the operation is one of the biggest determinant.

Posted by occa888 > 2017-11-30 14:42 | Report Abuse

@Lau333 very much thanks for your viewpoint, I'll take them into consideration for my big 4 positions

Posted by Lau333 > 2017-11-30 14:57 | Report Abuse

That’s just my 2 cents. Glad that you find it useful.

Posted by Lau333 > 2017-11-30 15:13 | Report Abuse

Btw, the production capacity figure of Allliance is from google. That may need further validation.

Posted by Lau333 > 2017-11-30 21:33 | Report Abuse

Noticed typo on SSTEEL capacity, should be 1500 KTA instead.

Posted by Lau333 > 2018-02-27 20:34 | Report Abuse

Locally, the new steel supply from Alliance Steel will gradually increase the supply of wire rods and steel bars in the local markets. That will be the supply shock if not exported to China as originally planned.