Kian Leong Lim, historical wise, Sarawak Plantation declared dividend around February and payout in March. As for business wise, plantation counter such as this would depends on 3 main factors:

1. Harvest Yield which results in FFB
2. CPO market price
3. Oil Extraction rate

FFB could be decreasing due to Feb/March 2014 dry seasons (We had water rationing during those months if you still can recall), Dec/Jan flooding of East Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah & Sarawak. Experts are saying that it takes 6-18 months for lag impact on production. Hence if you take this calculation in place, it should be reflected in Q1 2015.

CPO market price depending on several factors such as demand/supply, other vegetable oil price especially soy bean oil, and recently linking to Crude Petroleum price. The lowering of Crude Petroleum Oil isn't good for CPO price as it affects the viability of Biodiesel initiatives in Indonesia and Malaysia. That's how we see the trending down of CPO in tandem with lower price of Crude Petroleum.

It seems in Feb 2015, Crude Petroleum was said to have found its bottom although some are saying that we might be seeing USD40 per barrel if the situation in Ukraine still not improving. Anyway, as the price shows, it is back to hovering around USD50 per barrel. With stabilization of Crude Petroleum price, potentially lower FFB yield, Indonesia new subsidy on Biodiesel (increased subsidy scheme), CPO price may be stabilized in 2015 and maybe on slight uptrend.

On supply/demand front, no doubt economics in China and India are not growing as aggressively as before but they are still growing. Imports of CPO have been trending down for the past 3 months as reported. However this could due to earlier stock up on CPO due to lower price back in August - October period. Who doesn't want to stock up on cheap oil, right?

Back in somewhere in June/July 2014, I have highlighted to Uncle Koon on the impact of China tightening the commodities credit. Few weeks after that, CPO price starts to trend down whereby Crude Petroleum price too start to fall. The latest update from China, they are easing the tightening in order to boost growth. That should be good news for all commodities that China rely heavily upon.

I have no opinion on extraction rate as I don't see any trend in improving the extraction rate year after year amid nominal improvement. This would rely on their efficiency and technology applies. There seem to be some idea in improving the logistic side and getting the FFB quicker to the extraction plants. Quality of the FFB from the matured trees also play a part.

Need another catalyst to move this counter upward. Waiting for quarterly results

Wait for the financial results by end of this month. Should report further loss before declaring the rights issues pricing.

dvid19621, what do you think of the CPO price in moving forward? If you think it's going to increase, then plantation counters are good buy. If not, then better dont buy such counters.

Going to declare dividend soon.

The entitlement basis and the issue price have not been fixed at this juncture.
Extract from the proposal:

For illustration purposes only, based on the 2,370,370,387 AAX Shares in issue as at 28 January 2015, being the latest practicable date prior to the date of this Announcement(“LPD”), the capital outlay required from an Entitled Shareholder holding 1,000 AAX Shares who wishes to fully subscribe for his entitlement is up to approximately RM166.64. The actual capital outlay required by the Entitled Shareholders to fully subscribe for their entitlements under the Proposed Rights Issue with Warrants will depend on the Entitlement Basis and the Issue Price.

Forex exchange loss will be significant in Q4 2014. The upcoming results would be making loss.

After rights issue, the price will drop to adjust back to the market as there are more shares in circulation now. If you do not want to subscribe, better sell off the rights during the trading week.

Even if you don't own AAX shares prior to the Ex date, you still can buy the rights during the one week trading of rights. So it's incorrect to say that you must own AAX to subscribe to the rights.

very slow climbing but when drop, it was very fast.

It cant hold on the price after been around 2.20 - 2.30 for long time. I hope it hold its price now instead of dropping more.

Profit taking and consolidation. Im still waiting for the financial results

The computational in theory are correct. However, when taking into account of realism, you may not be making consistent returns for the next 30 years. Some years you may make loss or some years you may make significant returns. Besides, the computation shows that the investor did not take a single cent out of the fund which i think would be impossible when you have few millions in your fund.

Margin traders have to take profits by today and Monday.

Think they will only announce dividend share after Parkson has announced Q4 results in end Feb. Dividend shares payout should be somewhere in end March or April 2015, just like last year.

The same shares dividend will dilute the share prices again.

Hitting 6% soon. Can give the same shares dividend which equal to 6%.

No movement even CPO price recovered for the past two weeks due to flood in Malaysia and higher USD exchange rate which is good for exporting industries.

All of sudden such a big movement. Supermax has drank RedBull? I yet to see any positive news to boost this counter except for weakening RM which is good for export companies which deal in USD and lower commodities price especially Crude Oil. However, these two factors have been around for the past 6 months. Why now? Anticipating significant better results to be announced in Feb 2015?

Shares buy back has slowed down for the past one week. Is it because of cash allocated for buyback has been exhausted or the price has stabilized and there's no need to support the counter price anymore?

With the remaining jet fuel hedge in Q4 2014, the next financial results would not result in profit or breakeven. AAX should report loss for Q4 2014.

If not mistaken, I think the Vietnam business CEO has been replaced few months back?

For the past OSK price has been hovering between RM1.60 and RM1.70. The past few months peak was due to the news of the merger. I think now the price is correcting back to its norm which is around RM1.60 - RM1.70 and will stay flat for long. That's OSK just like when it merged with RHB back then.

HowIn, if hits 6% by then, it will repeat its approach of declaring dividend shares as of 2014. Next, they buy again to support the share price as shares buyback cannot exceed 10%. They can do this until maybe July 2015 before declaring another dividend shares.

Next, they need to seek AGM mandate to approve another round of share buyback. The price may drop again from August to November 2015 if there are no solid evident of the company delivering better results in Q1 2015 - Q3 2015.

Shares buyback has reached 4.28% as at 30th December 2014. Another 1.72% to go before they going to slow down in the buyback. I think they can easily hit that by end Jan 2015.

Buying China mall for RM800 million and generated from internal fund. Parkson still got anymore cash to support the share price in Malaysia and HK?

according to bloomberg is 27th Feb 2015

MuhammadAmin AA is at its 52 weeks high. Need quite a substantial sum to enter that counter now. One counter of AA is equivalent to 4.3 AAX. I may choose to wait for AAX profit instead of paying high premium for AA just to earn RM700 (TP 3.60) for every RM2940 invested.

Q4 results would most probably report a loss as AAX has hedged around 52% of oil in Q4 2014 for more than USD100. Hold for now until the next quarterly report and more drop.

Land value RM191 million doesn't mean there is a quick taker. If buy from PHB, at least WC still own it in a way. Afterall he made most of the decision. Maybe in 3 years time, he wants to buy back the land for RM100 million and PHB would allow it. Get RM93 million for 3 years and pay back RM100 million. Better than borrowing from banks.

Thank you for the inspiring article especially on the last part. Yes, that should be the ultimate investment strategy. Love your family more than money.

Now only 3.78% treasury shares retain. Still have another 3.22% to go before they slow down in the shares buyback. That may need another 2 months to go and by that time, Parkson would announce Q4 results.

WC got extra cash from Odel disposal and KL Festival Mall. He can continue to support the price for another few rounds using this new gain

Keep some bullets as it s Christmas and New Year. May be a bear trap to push up the market for good feeling for Christmas and New Year. Come 2015, 2nd wave of drop may come again as Crude Oil and CPO price are not stabilize yet.

Mandatory General Offer if reach 33% share holding. Tony already have almost 31%.

Analysts have their own agenda. By asking the retails investors to sell, they can start to accumulate cheap shares since they know there going to be rebound in the share price when the company declare huge profit in 2015.

As for O&G counters, they are currently stuck with high prices and by recommending Buy, it is hopeful that it can push back the counter price and they can recover some losses or break even.

retail investor use contra leh....

Yeah, morning volume is so high and pushed up the price. usually the trend is to push down before buying back large volume at 1650.

Hmm, the pattern of buyback has changed.

My prediction of Parkson closing at RM2 by end of the year may come true. By then the total loss for year 2014 is around -18.33%. Parkson has become the worst counter I ever invested so far.

What is happening with TH Plantation? CPO price is not moving and yet the counter price moved so much for the past two weeks?

If recession coming, the first counters which will get hit first are the financial counters. In addition, in Malaysia context, the properties will get it too. Commodities such as Palm Oil may not be impacted that hard as ppl still need to eat and purchase basic necessities.

actually i dun understand why they are selling at 2.23 while the current price is at 2.31. Isn't it better for them to sell it higher since WC going to buy it anyway?

Really no idea but I manage to make some contra gain by observing the trend from 1500 to 1650.

Haha. Then, that means they didnt really take note of the economic perspective and only "hammer" on whatever they think it's the truth. I believe it's almost time to shop for big sales for those under value counters.

every counter in Bursa are down and that includes Parkson. It's not about Parkson alone but the sentiment of Malaysia's economy due to Crude Oil Price dropped and the announcement by Petronas on the 40% lower dividend to Gov in 2015 as well as some reduction in CAPEX and projects.

As per today, it is only 0.92%. Still have another 5.08% to go before declaring share dividend again at 6%.

Based on the last two buyback, the buyback will slow down when it reaches around 6% of treasury shares.

Around -18% paper loss. Still holding and not averaging down until after Feb/March next year. Doing daily contra to recover some loss.

Azizul, I was forecasting if Parkson drop to RM2.00 by end of this year with the estimation of 10 cent drop every week. By then, the ROI is -18.33%. Yes, the current price of RM2.37 is instead a ROI of -3.66%.