Where can I claim my prize? Hahahaha

Posted by bfg9000 > Sep 29, 2015 04:21 PM | Report Abuse X

Above 1600 looks good to me.

1603.2 will be my bet, factoring that the bomohs will collectively jump and shake the index higher at the last trading min

Above 1600 looks good to me.

1603.2 will be my bet, factoring that the bomohs will collectively jump and shake the index higher at the last trading min

connie - thats not much either, yesterday alone saw 800B gone, according to bloomberg

trustme: up to 70B only, they still have massive forex to live on for a long time

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/global-investor/stuggling-to-plug-budget-deficit-saudi-arabia-withdraws-billions-from-markets-estimates-show

sifu Duit, is FA40 bottoming out a good indicator to look out for?

A normal economy operates at non-zero interest rates. All the FOMC need to do to stabilise the market is to say they will hike to return to situation normal (albeit a little bit AFU), but will be extremely accomodative to growth.

All the major economies are still growing. This is more like 2011, not 2008.

Debate question: This house believes that bullish internal indicators overcome bearish external factors

On the proposer side are the Elliotographers
On the opposer side are the Fundamentalists

Welcome, popcorn

I just want to say that all these comments that call warrants gonna die or put warrants gonna die is not getting us anywhere.

Even in a bull or bear market, there will be ups and downs, just watch the timing on these, and theres profit to be made.

I know someone who entered HK early ~15c, hold it even though it was down to 10 or so, then reaped massive profits. And then did the same on C4 when the reversal came but he got in two cycles early, so small up didnt sell, small down didnt cut losss, wait until the bigger wave.

The worse thing one can do is flip flop flip flop, everytime cut 10-20% losses and sooner or later all d capital is gone. Just be ready to hold if needed, and dont average down, only average when the reversal trend is confirmed (most of the time you'll run out of bullets trying to catch a falling knife)

and then take profit or do a more favourable exit.

Learnt all this the hard way... hahahha...

A lof of call warrants esp those CIMB ones have been cornered by certain parties - if you look at the movement relative to the index it is comparatively muted. Just wait for their next act, I would say it would be pretty explosive.

On the other hand, MM warrants like C1/C2/CZ moved fluidly like they should. After getting into trouble at Singapore, Macquarie have been much more responsive lately.

As for the junk bond status, understand that the Credit Default Swap instrument itself is up to speculation, and gets speculated a lot. If going by the same argument, since market down C12 doesnt move down much, someone can argue that KLCI going to boom. The other side will say, wait, market up HK doesnt move down much, so KLCI is going to collapese.

Thanks to all sifus, and bro Duit - joined the C1 party late but still manage to exit with a small gain right before the .185/.19 collapsed, to pay for tomorrow's lunch.

At this rate, he better put his hand in the other pocket and bring out the extra 15B bro duit talked about

Posted by connie > Sep 28, 2015 05:07 PM | Report Abuse

unless the 20bil really comes in to give us a SHORT KICK :):) short burst of release !!!

rchi always got the timing spot on

Post at 1888 for good luck! Huat ahhhh everyone

I've been taught that its only appropriate for a gentleman to greet another gentleman with a firm handshake;

and another lady with cheek kisses, preferably twice. The right way is to start with the right

Is that forbidden in this kopitiam?

Thanks SkyHawk. Now we wait for the handle to form?

i bet two coffees on a breach

Good morning everyone on this beautiful, misty morning

What a beautiful day to start the last quarter of the year (corporate calendars anyway)

Let's all have a good profitable trading this Q4!

Hi red^3

As far as I know, they only tell you if their inventory have sold out, e.g. their MM is going offline, and I dont think they will disclose how much inventory that they have or the underlying stock or even if they hold it at all or just hedges on them.

https://www.malaysiawarrants.com.my/mqmy/tools?sp=dwsearch

IIRC it is around 21-22% of the 1trillion+ Bursa market cap

Thankfully, going by the charter of most of these funds, their money have to be invested in EM, so in-out-in-out also they'll have to hang around

Posted by vinoth > Sep 25, 2015 03:41 PM | Report Abuse

The foreign funds have sold about 17b from January 2015 to September 2015. How much more do they have? Anyone has any data on this?

AJ, some of us are actually here to learn how to fish. From your various posts, I distilled the lessons of AJ:
1. Pick an honest MM counter - usually Macquarie?
2. Highest gearing possible
3. Closest to strike (eg strike within anticipated upleg or downleg)
4. Liquidity is a two edged sword

Pls do drop a few tips, if my summary is on the money or off


Posted by alphajack > Sep 23, 2015 10:50 PM | Report Abuse

The only H warrant which rly ran up is HM which was 19c last Friday and now is 100% up already but no one even realized that it was the best put because you all are so stupid to have to rely to people here to pick your bets.

If you had brains and you were bearish this week you surely missed out even the best put warrant by following the crowd here, 100% in FBMKLCI-HM yet not a single one even pointed it out. Ha that is how I know most of you here are novices and newbies..

twobits and connie, thx for d graphical and rather lurid details... always luv lurid details here..

btw ah con, don't u think "hawk's camp" sounds too political? enuf politics everyday with jibby camp mahty camp indon camp whatever camp liao...

as academics, shouldn't "hawk's school (of thoughts)" sounds much friendlier and compliant with the house spirit, if not d house rules?

I think the habis level is 1600.7 when wave 4 will no longer be a higher low to confirm the uptrend

I disposed at .28 yesterday also at the last min of trading. Actually about 1.5M of HK changed hands at the last min, sold mine to the last few buyers and at the end, no more buyers.

Take note of pre-opening queue to formulate your trading plan

unsophisticated understudy and wanna be elliotician here subscribe to scenario (2); for the reason that it fits better to the boom and bust cycle of our bloodied motherland - we could well be a couple of years away from a major recession with the current climate of accomodating and forgiving monetary policy (in other words, ah jib gor gor's fiscal the tightening with GST and subsidy reduction will take some time to dampen earnings and deplete growth, but structurally it is the right thing to do, something that will take someone of Duit's calibre to elucidate)

also look further, a long time observer of Hawk's calibre surely cannot miss the pattern in the 10 yrs+ chart that all major corrections on KLCI have been ABC

disclaimer - if majorly wrong, fell free to embarass, as long as it also educates and enlightens

Posted by connie > Sep 22, 2015 10:43 PM | Report Abuse

vinoth .. there are two experienced elliotticians here who have different views (1) MAJOR 5 downleg will unfold (2) MAJOR 4 ABC correction has bottomed at 1504 ... if this correction is NOT a complex one, then we shud anticipate a MAJOR 5 upleg !!! in view of this, i trade very cautiously ..

That one yesterday Azmin said, if objectives are clear, can proceed in Selangor

Decisive break in favour of bears. Putties won. HK is moving!!!

yeoh - welcome

connie - technical in d wrong stuff. technical analysis i dunno one, let me pls curi curi copy your homework laaa

https://www.google.com/#q=Malaysia+Leader+Najib+Razak%E2%80%99s+Assets+Probed+by+U.S.

Go in via a google search, it will bypass the paywall. If still block do it in your browser's incognito mode

Posted by yeohhh > Sep 22, 2015 01:55 PM | Report Abuse

Connie,
Couldnt open the link you posted TT

FM: what is your Maybank target price?

thx bro rchi for C25, will follow on Aemulus and C23

Sifu twobits:
May I ask what is the correct chart to look at? m30 or m60?

Posted by twobits > Sep 22, 2015 10:20 AM | Report Abuse

mslee: on FGV
wave 1 = 1.23 - 1.34
wave 2 = 1.34 - 1.27
wave 3 = 1.27 - 1.80 (over extended)
wave 4 = 1.80 - 1.47(0.618F)
@4.618 same quantum as w3
wave 5 = 1.97

Anyone dares to call a bottom on the current downleg?

thanks indicators, for the indicators

Sentiment is recovering, SP500 & DJIA as green as the grass next door.

Just what is needed to trigger subwave 5 of 4 tomorrow?

don't u jus <3 leveraging when it is in our favour?

Posted by hissyu2 > Sep 21, 2015 03:49 PM | Report Abuse

huat arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr~~ today AA up 6% but warrant up 22%~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ CHIONG ARRRRRRRR

I would fly to the moon & back if
you'll be...
If you'll be my baby

Index resumes downward trend, HK still red?

Congratulations, Adrian!

Bilit bilis, time to enter calls?

thanks bro Rchi for AA. pls drop a note when the time to consider selling. will also set some aside for my fav charity :)

good morning everyone in cc house, thanks for all the morning analysis. this is better than reading the newspaper!

Good luck AlphaJack, I saw 80k C1 transacted at 0.285 just before market close. RM22.8k only, 10% is like RM2.3k, small change for you.

FM: The 77% probability of no hike was correct; hope you got chance to dispose your HG on the wave 4 correction before wave 5 commence. At 72 days left there premium degradation will be pretty high if wave 4 turns out to be a short one. Now it is at 25% premium, it will eventually drop to the level like for warrants at around 30 days left, at 3%. That's a 30 index points margin disappearing as the clock runs down.


Posted by alphajack > Sep 18, 2015 09:28 PM | Report Abuse
told u all HSI CP would fly. made nice money rdy hahahha
last minute whacked FBMKLCI-C1 at 28.5c so cheap before closing
Monday KLCI should open a bit green, another 10% fast huat for me
Besides that, sold my Air Asia, Homeritz and bought Skpres, MikroMb and Mitrajaya.
these all will have more room to huat
Havent touched puts ready and would not even care to do it.
HK see you at 20c kakakakaka

Thanks sifu Duit, got your earlier emails part 1 & 2, very enlightening read. Many thanks again!

Bro duit,

Please add me to your list

bfgwong@gmail.com

Thanks

Volatility is down with VIX indicator down 1% to 21%. Fluffy concept but there is an index for it


Posted by micky92 > Sep 18, 2015 05:32 AM | Report Abuse

Don't think game over...volatility remains which is good for either put or call warrants.djia close more than 200 pts in last hr from day high reflecting investors still jitters with the news.Back to klci i presume many will take profits after recent rally due to coming weekend.in fact i am considering to add more put warrants.cheers

Connie, d real reason of d post is entrapment; c if u admit being oldtimer or not. Since no recollection of previous hikes, we can collectively erase d sagging bodied Connie out of our collective minds.

No wonder bros Duit and rchi worked so hard, they found a really hot young "Helen of CC house"'s attention to fight for... be like Yellen, dont decide on one or the other ya, keep d tips and calls cumming!

Good for everyone as long as we all huat together...



Posted by connie > Sep 17, 2015 05:58 PM | Report Abuse

bfg9000 ... thanks for the post ! some say priced in ....some say no effect ... some say continue to rally ... hawkish or dovish we must trade with a plan and not like a blind man :)

Reposting from HK forum.

TL;DR - Hike or no hike, index may just say "meh" and continue doing its thing.

-----

It is not a given that a raise/no raise binary will bring about a negatively correlated movement in global indices.

Those who have followed SP500 vs Fed rate before (basically traders in their 40s) who have been in this war for long enough would have seen enough cases where rate increasse continues to support rallies, and interest rate cuts continues to feed the hungry bears.

The best analogy I have seen is that this is like going into battle the first time. You will be really kan cheong, but like in General Patton's famous speech, 95% of you will survive. The other 5% are those who have bet their pants, and their grandmother, into one thing or the other.

Hopefully you won't be needing it, but good luck anyway.

It is not a given that a raise/no raise binary will bring about a negatively correlated movement in global indices.

Those who have followed SP500 vs Fed rate before (basically traders in their 40s) who have been in this war for long enough would have seen enough cases where rate increasse continues to support rallies, and interest rate cuts continues to feed the hungry bears.

The best analogy I have seen is that this is like going into battle the first time. You will be really kan cheong, but like in General Patton's famous speech, 95% of you will survive. The other 5% are those who have bet their pants, and their grandmother, into one thing or the other.

Hopefully you won't be needing it, but good luck anyway.

I would say, if you believe Feds decision to be a pivotal binary decision on Friday, then risk no more than 25% of your portfolio on tickets that will benefit from it.

If you believe that over in the life of the put warrants that there will be a 50% chance of it being profitable, risk no more than 50% on it.

Even in a bull market there will be room for put warrants in a portfolio. Just don't make it to be the only thing in the portfolio

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"
-usually attributed to John Maynard Keynes

23% rate hike. Until 4am, Friday morning in beautiful Malaysia. Then it is 100% or 0%.
Probability waves are more beautiful than Elliot's ones

Posted by Fund_Manager > Sep 15, 2015 06:31 PM | Report Abuse
Experts predict ringgit will not reach US$1 = RM4
Goldman predict oil price will reach $20 a barrel
You believe them too?

Posted by bfg9000 > Sep 15, 2015 05:15 PM | Report Abuse
The market predicts a 23% chance of a rate hike this Thursday
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/fed-funds-flash.html