The Magician is definitely a veteran here posting using a disposable account for reason unknown. Perhaps to protect reputation in case it didn't move by early March.

It was a good sharing though, although I do expect the recovery in oil prices will only be seen in Q1 quarter (results end of May) as reflected in most of the overseas O&G, as oil prices really did started moving quite late in 2017.

conversion of preference shares just means some holders of 0150PA decided to convert to 0150 mother share; either by combining 2 to 1 or just pay them 8 cents per share to convert. At these price most will just buy the PA and convert

Don't need to dig, the reason is in the quarterly report.

60M is compensation. This is a one off payment and not recurring. So next quarter will get 0 compensation.

Without that, solar segment is a 11M loss in Q4 and will continue to bleed money. That is the nature of Solar business in 2018.

Every other segment is doing worse in terms of revenue; and have been under invested and neglected over the last few years as Solar drains management attention.

Nett profit is lower because management took the chance to pay off debt with the compensation. Chinaman will love this "debt free company".

Hard reality is the management is out of ideas and have absolutely no idea where to invest in.

Module line investment used to be a no brainer. Now it could well be a much bigger drain of money.

Someone please ask this to then at the coming AGM. Can't join as far away from Penang.

Will take this chance to sell into (temporary) strength

The Q4 results will be published on 28th Feb next Wednesday, if history is any indicator. They only publish on 24th if 28th falls on a weekend.

The argument for 0150PA is the convexity - at mother share below 0.16, gains and losses are linear and the preferrential shares are convertible to normal shares at no risk. At above 0.16, 0150PA acts as a zero-risk call option. Basically it is like buying a normal share with free option build in for returns higher than the underlying mother stock.

But of course performance of the mother is still the key, at below 0.16 its no difference than buying the mother share.

I love to have the free convexity in my portfolio though, equities still on track for a great 2018 globally, and this is a company that is finally getting its act together :)

Disclosure: Long

Anyone looking into buying this counter should get the -PA instead.

Summary: 2 PAs convertible to 1 mother share, or 1 PA +8 cents. This gives an extraordinary risk/reward ratio once price hit 0.16 for mom.

Else, it is per baseline, and auto converts 2 PA to 1 mom at expiry. What a gem!


FINTEC FINTEC-PA FINTEC % gain FINTEC-PA % gain
0.11 0.055 -21% -21%
0.12 0.06 -14% -14%
0.13 0.065 -7% -7%
0.14 0.07 0% 0%
0.15 0.075 7% 7%
0.16 0.08 14% 14%
0.17 0.09 21% 29%
0.18 0.1 29% 43%
0.19 0.11 36% 57%
0.2 0.12 43% 71%
0.21 0.13 50% 86%
0.22 0.14 57% 100%
0.23 0.15 64% 114%
0.24 0.16 71% 129%
0.25 0.17 79% 143%
0.26 0.18 86% 157%
0.27 0.19 93% 171%
0.28 0.2 100% 186%

SolarTech (JV Partner) Financials - Revenue (x100M NTD) / MoM% / YoY% / Accumulated Annual Revenue / Accumulated Annual Rev YoY%
January 3.88 -22.16% -65.13% 3.88 -65.13%
February 4.49 15.74% -51.15% 8.37 -58.80%
March 4.59 2.32% -58.96% 12.96 -58.86%
April 5.32 15.75% -50.82% 18.27 -56.80%
May 5.98 12.62% -35.58% 24.26 -53.02%
June 6.71 12.19% -34.08% 30.98 -49.89%
July 6.15 -8.37% -7.36% 37.13 -45.77%
August 5.36 -12.91% -7.96% 42.49 -42.80%
September 6.23 16.39% 38.85% 48.73 -38.15%
October 5.82 -6.64% 26.27% 54.56 -34.58%
November 3.61 -37.98% -50.96% 58.17 -35.91%
December 4.65 28.75% -6.65% 62.82 -34.39%
January 4.35 -6.47% 12.17% 4.35 12.17%

Q317 1774M NTD
Q417 1408M NTD

Plus January is sequential drop as well. Hard to see any good news. Even if there are some adjustment for a good Q4 numbers, the solar segment will find it tough to turn around.

Few more questions for investors going to their AGM:
1. What is their roadmap for the solar segment? In a world going towards PERC cell technology, they are continue to make non-PERC cells while depreciating relatively new production line.

2. Do they have any plans for CAPEX for retooling to PERC? Their new parent UREC (Gintech, Solartech and NSP merged entitiy which will comes into being officially in March) is going to be PERC heavy, and any legacy capacity especially not wholly owned will be in danger.

I doubt they have any plans other than keep on making the same thing.

Anyone holding may as well just write off the solar part and value the counter just based on the other segments.

I won't say they are cons. The previous run up were driven by fundamentals (conversion to solar cell manufacturer). They were too aggressive (building a big new plant) but slow to react when the market shifts. Ended up pretty ugly (short notice termination of employees, firing off people by SMSs etc that made the press). At least they were able to off load 1 manufacturing line rather than let it idle by selling it back to the manufacturer (I found that recognizing it as revenue is a bit funny). Now there is a new, very negative shift in the fundamental of their solar segment which is suppose to drive revenue and profit going forward; and I'm not convinced that they have a game plan.

Without clear information from the management, I would recommend that investors looking into their forthcoming Q4'17 results to discount any improvements in Solar business segment as the effect of question (2) above which is due to a one off effect of building tariff free inventory into US and will leads to underperformance in Q'18 onwards.

Anyone who can attend their coming AGM, the following questions need to be asked. Or if the management is proactive enough, have a deep think about it and engage the analyst community:

1. What is the impact of Gintech, Solartech and NSP merger on the solar segment demand outlook considering SolarTech is a JV partner in TS SolarTech and buys most of the cell. Supply chain consolidation was flagged as a key area of synergy for the merger of the parents, and what if TS SolarTech have been marked for phase-out from the supply chain, this is material information for shareholders.

2. What is the percentage of current shipment from the remaining lines are going to the US; and the forecasted impact of the 30% tariff. Did TS SolarTech's customer build up module inventory shipment to US in the last few months and will this leads to slowdown in orders for the remainder of this year.

3. Are the concentrated effort to build market to the rest of the world to fill the anticipated fall in demand from the United States, and when will these materialise into order books.

With 32.6% / 39M remaining, this warrant will see quite a show when 7200 wakes up.

I almost wanted to give up on this, but then I see Coldeye still holding the mom. KYY dont know lah, he might "forget" or "distracted by too many remisiers " to disclose

chickmonk, thanks for the news - do you have the link on where to download Solartech's quarterly report?

I think Ms Faye is giving Gen Zs a bad name. C'mom, the lack of depth in her research, the lack of breath in her insight, all just confirms everyone else's prejudice on Gen Z (lack of attention and focus, doing things superficially, know a bit share all over the world pretending to be expert). Please, put down the selfie stick, and read more. Read a lot lot lot more, before writing again. This is not a negative post, seriously, just some hard words to hopefully raise your own standard.

As of the oil prices, one of the result of the current phase in oil prices is that there is a structural change in the demand of distillates. Lighter fractions still have great demand (those we use for driving) while middle distillates have really too much supply and not much demand (look at the spread between Diesel and Petrol prices). Aviation fuel? Middle distillate. Tony won't have trouble sleeping at night if the big IF happens and oil rebounds to $50

Given the massive selling by key stakeholders and AA still holds above key 1.8 level, shows just how much support this counter have. I am sure one day Faye will be right on being a contrarian, given enough time, to establish a reputation but that day is not today.

in fact they announced their dividend policy will be 30% of net profit. right now, demand is great for non-china solar cells. if u can make, u can sell. its like printing money. thats why they are in a hurry to add manufacturing lines. but this is a growth stock. the moment they done expanding, thats the time to get the heck out

@kk123 we're not buying a world class company, we are buying a cheap and competent supplier of solar cells that are not subject to anti dumping tariff and are free to be sold to Europe and US (in other words, the hot thing in solar really)

@kk123 you really dont know what you're talking about. Go look at Jinko Solar. Suppose to be building 2 solar cell/module factories in Malaysia, and before it even got finished they changed plan - to build 5 rather than 2!

@JNG9678 thanks for the photos. Do you mind helping us take a photo on how their utilities pad (the gas tanks and chemical tanks) looks like? We're trying to gauge if they can really finish tool install for the additional lines by Q3'16

one more month to accumulate, probably a bit less than that knowing how leaky our financial services are. safe would be 2 weeks

SunEdison just borrowed, to buy and growth itself into bankruptcy. Usually 7200 start moving at the beginning of the quarter. I suppose as their accounting close their books, the news start leaking out

this one is going to be a big win. current eps on trailing earnings badly affected by 2015H1 where solar was ramping up still. on forward valuation, even when fully diluted, its still considered very cheap

Sorry for asking a noobish question. FA basically tries to forward price assets based on the historical or published knowledge about a counter, and projects it into a future where the price will rise to match upon the realisation of that potential. Yet for that to happen, the market have to be kind of "efficient" for that to happen (without some efficiency, undervalued stocks can stay undervalued.. forever). And yet the consensus outside academia (where EMH still prints tonnes of PhDs annually) is that EMH is kind of like a dead parrot...

While in investment itself, certain leveraged instruments - eg long maturity company warrants - are OK for certain counters. Margin in a brokerage account - no, thank you very much. Market goes up slowly and crashes fast.

I think there is an argument that certain things are better leveraged and some not. I would say things like car and house loans are leverages on things we otherwise cannot buy. And in a low interest rates and benign investment period, with a steady and secure job income, it makes the most sense to use the least cash and leverage to the max - get the biggest margin of financing from your bank

Bloomberg as president? Its the wish of quite a number of the more moderate lefties. Unfortunately, there's no way he could do so without splitting the entire Democratic party.

Vote Bloomberg, get Trump

sifu rchi, still keeping HSI-C20? or should switch to SKPETRO?

Sifu Hawk, thanks for HQ.

Bloomberg published "Hang Seng Index Sinks Below Net Assets for First Time Since 1998".

Still got room for HSI to fall further? Below NTA?

As China primes the bomb, all silent on the western front...

Sifu Skyhawk, congrats on HQ and very well played. I didn't execute per your missive sent yesterday.. haihz, big opportunity missed


Posted by skyhawk > Jan 18, 2016 06:28 PM | Report Abuse

bfg9000....2moro am expecting d 'Bomohs' to continue to perform their tricks lah...wakakaka

Thanks Ma'am Connie. For a while thought that the Wave 5 upleg has been struck off the list and we are stuck with some impulsive downwave... won't want that (yet!)

Also, haven't seen you surfing the KLCI waves much.. so maybe been busy with other matters of greater importance such as domestic bliss and intimacy, to be able to ignore the violent storm hitting our markets?


Posted by connie > Jan 18, 2016 09:58 PM | Report Abuse

sir bfg9000 .. oh yea there is a hammer today ! hopefully there is a green candle tomorrow and thus issuing buy signal at macd and slow stoch plus also a positive divergence :) if we apply wave principles, so long as low of 1504 is NOT violated, hawk's WAVE 5 upleg is still legit ... leading diagonal peaked at 1727 being sw1 of 5 and currently processing sw2 of 5 ! if 1504 is broken, then the diagonal will be a connective wave for more corrections to unfold before the commencement of WAVE 5 :( and do note common retracement level for wave 2 is 62F which is pretty steep ... can even be 78F but DEFINITELY cannot be lower than start of wave 1 - THE CARDINAL RULE !

Ma'am Connie... does today's KLCI chart looks like a hammer have been formed? Although in this market almost everyone will doubt there will be a confirmation green bar tomorrow. Maybe except Hawk... hahaha

kialim!

thanks rchi!!! lets huat on this!!!

sifu rchi, are you still holding kialim?

Its time to get greedy before everyone else?

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

any tp for kialim, sifu rchi?

sifu region, are you still holding putties as insurance? looks like a good time to sapu some

Wow sifu hawk sixth sense very accurate... a rally unexpected by the rest of us!

jake 930am

sifu hawk the market is surprising us again with such a broad rally! looks like impulsive wave still intact. can it sustain beyond China market opening red?

We had a good fight in 2015, lets have a better and even more profitable 2016!

Happy New Year, comrades

Evel - it depends, for MacQuarie warrants they will follow their MM live matrix as long as inventory not yet sold out; or they have reacquire some. Others it depends mostly on the exercise level

noobnnew, don't be mechanical on reading index, the level at which the upleg will extend to is not known until we arrive and the strength there. Assuming we break 2.0 fibo ratio, next target that sifu Hawk used is 3.14 @1720; the next ratio at 3.618 will bring us to ~1730; at which all his subbies who got CR will be very happy :-)

noobnnew, you have to decide on your own, based on sifu Hawk, there will be another 15 points up move for CI, if fully realized will be 2 cents on HW to drop

Counter 8888 CC.KL today have no volume during the afternoon session. Still at 2352. This have not happened before!

sifu Hawk, looks like the bomohs bomohs not doing much.. waiting for the Raja Bomoh ValueCap to step in? have you seen the signs yet?

Thanks rchi for ck
Another great call!

Hi AJ - Midwinter, the bear king should be going back to sleep.

I am expecting your good friend "Fund Manager" to turn up soon as well.

This place needs a party