@dragon328 thank you so much. i compare 1H and 2H, it seem that out of the whole year SGD699M, 2H contribution is actually SGD400M. that is a lot for a 1,300 MW of CCGT in 2nd half, am I right?

@dragon328 you manage to go thru keppel presentation slides? Power/Infrastructure side is very impressive
Segmental results – Infrastructure
Net profit was $699m, 135% higher than FY22 of $297m
• Higher asset management net profit mainly due to fee structure change & higher
performance fees, partly offset by lower acquisition fees
• Strong operating income growth driven by higher net generation and margins
from the integrated power business
• Fair value gains on sponsor stakes

@rr88 you are really big sharks!!! 2 days ago RSS volume also not so high

@dragon328 thank you!!! if 100% Hydrogen, you can sell it as Green/ECO energy to get better price.

another hammer?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/LzGzTCpj/

@dragon328 can you explain more on the cost structure of Green Hydrogen ready CCGT with 30% Hydrogen usage compare to non-hydrogen CCGT? how will green hydrogen give higher margin?

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/699091

TA TP Rm 2.60 ⚒
AmInvest Old TP RM 2.70 ⚒
RHB TP Rm 2.95 ⚒
MIDF TP RM 2.99 ⚒
CIMB TP Rm 3.00 ⚒
Kenanga Old TP RM 3.06 ⚒
D TP RM3.28 ⚒😂
OLD HLIB TP RM 3.90 ⚒
MrFox TP > 4.00 ⚒
Kenanga New TP 4.10 ⚒
Uniholder TP 4.28 😁
CLSA TP RM 4.40 😁
RHB New TP RM4.69😁
SimplyyWlSt TP RM4.95😁
AmInvest New TP 5.10 😁
HLIB New TP RM 5.15 😁

Updated TPs

In a note on Tuesday, Kenanga Research said it was positive on the latest development of the power plant, saying it will boost PowerSeraya’s earnings and improve its environmental, social and governance (ESG) score.

“Assuming S$800 million capex with 80:20 debt-to-equity ratio, 21-year concession period and IRR [internal rate of return] of 10%, it would add 13 sen to YTL Power’s SOP [sum-of-parts] valuation”.

“Separately, we revisit our valuation for YTL Power’s data centre investment, benchmarking it against SGX-listed Keppel DC REIT. At present, the market values Keppel DC REIT with a capacity of 300MW in its entirety at an enterprise value of S$4.27 billion or RM14.9 billion, translating to RM49.7 million/MW.

“Based on RM49.7 million/MW, YTL Power’s entire 500MW data centre carries a gross value of RM24.91 billion. Having deducted the development cost of RM15.0 billion and discounted to net present value, we arrive at a valuation of RM7.02 billion (versus our previous DCF [discounted cash flow] valuation of RM2.65 billion based on 150MW capacity at a discount factor of 7.8%),” said Kenanga.

Kenanga, which maintained its ‘outperform’ rating on YTL Power, upgraded its SOP-derived target price (TP) by 34% to RM4.10 from RM3.06 as the research house upgraded its data centre valuation to 86 sen a share from 33 sen a share.

“[We also] added 13 sen/DCF share for the new CCGT plant, and imputed a new YES valuation of 24 sen based on actual book value of RM1.95 billion as per FY2023,” it added.

@jeffchan1901 TM DC is not AI DC but hyperscale data centre, HDC. A lot of companies is investing heavily in this DC now. @dragon328 the NVDA's CEO will make sure priorities shipment is given to his pet project in Johor. 😁😁😁

AI DC, SG new PP with Hydrogen, WTE projects etcs, with all the capital intensive project running very soon, look like there will be another "Bonds With Warrants · Proposed Offer For Sale" very soon. Hope it will be announced very soon. Last 2 round was in 20-Feb-2000 and 16-Nov-2007.

TA TP Rm 2.60 ⚒
AmInvest Old TP RM 2.70 ⚒
RHB TP Rm 2.95 ⚒
MIDF TP RM 2.99 ⚒
CIMB TP Rm 3.00 ⚒
Kenanga TP RM 3.06 ⚒
D TP RM3.28 ⚒😂
OLD HLIB TP RM 3.90 ⚒
MrFox TP > 4.00 ⚒
Uniholder TP 4.28 😁
CLSA TP RM 4.40 😁
RHB New TP RM4.69😁
SimplyyWlSt TP RM4.95😁
AmInvest New TP 5.10 😁
HLIB New TP RM 5.15 😁

Updated TPs

@dragon328 just sent to you

@KLV868 yes

https://www.tradingview.com/x/YGbvuMWh/
Another hammer.....

https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:AP:5cc17bc0-f2e2-4061-a32b-8a5347312ae2

https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:AP:1953bffd-bc69-4b0a-b5fe-b850e6855225

really a very good news

https://www.ema.gov.sg/news-events/news/media-releases/2024/inaugural-rfp-award-for-new-generation-capacity-under-centralised-process-framework

@dragon328 thank you

@xiaochen inbox to you already the article

TA TP Rm 2.60 ⚒
AmInvest AffinHwang TP RM 2.70 ⚒
RHB TP Rm 2.95 ⚒
MIDF TP RM 2.99 ⚒
CIMB TP Rm 3.00 ⚒
Kenanga TP RM 3.06 ⚒
D TP RM3.28 ⚒😂
OLD HLIB TP RM 3.90 ⚒
MrFox TP > 4.00 ⚒😁
Uniholder TP 4.28 😁
CLSA TP RM 4.40 😁
RHB New TP RM4.69😁
SimplyyWlSt TP RM4.95😁
HLIB New TP RM 5.15 😁

Updated TPs

Keep BUY, new MYR4.69 TP from MYR2.95, 18% upside with c.2% FY24F
(Jun) yield. We stay positive on YTL Power, given its resilient earnings from
PowerSeraya and gradual improvements from Wessex Water. As for the
recent Nvidia artificial intelligence-data centre (AI-DC) collaboration, our
preliminary estimates suggest a full ramp-up in the 100MW AI-DC could
generate average gross annual net earnings of USD130m (60% attributable
to YTL Communications).
 PowerSeraya still the powerhouse. As retail market prices (>70% of total
output) are still holding up quite well, we believe the earnings moderation
may not be as significant as we initially anticipated, given that locked-in gas
prices should still deliver decent margins. This is despite the Uniform
Singapore Energy Price or USEP – the reference for pool prices – having
retraced to SGD131/MWh in Dec 2023 (-26% MoM, -37% YoY). We
estimate c.15% of the total output generated is sold in the pool market, as
the remaining 15% is still under vesting contracts that generally offer
relatively fixed margins. As such, we lift our PowerSeraya earnings
contributions predominantly in FY25-26 on more resilient margins.
 Assessing the AI-DC potential. We walked away from a recent closed group
meeting with YTLP MD Dato’ Seri Yeoh Seok Hong with more insight over
its Nvidia AI-DC collaboration. Through this partnership, it is able to be in
the priority list of chip access and has potential introduction to relevant
clients that tap on Nvidia’s network. The latter has cloud partners it works
with that require supercomputing powers and may also take up such
capacity for themselves. Although YTLP is aiming to kick-start its first
100MW Phase 1 AI-DC in six to 12 months, this ultimately depends on how
soon the infrastructure can be set up and clients’ contracts sealed. It is too
preliminary to assess what the earnings are, given that contracts have yet to
be locked in. Reuters once reported that DC investments require a capex of
USD4.3bn. If we assume an AI server costs c.USD300k, the 100MW AI-DC
may require about USD3bn capex. Contracts with clients could potentially
in the 3-5-year range. Assuming a capex of USD3bn, annual revenue of
c.USD140k per server under a 5-year contract, 60% EBITDA margins, and
70% debt financing, we estimate a full ramp-up the 100MW AI-DC could
deliver average gross annual net earnings of USD130m (equivalent to 29%
of FY22 core earnings) with a project IRR of 10%.
 Stay BUY. We increase our FY24F-26F earnings by 14-56%, mainly on
higher PowerSeraya contributions. Our TP is also lifted to MYR4.69 with the
incorporation of higher PowerSeraya and AI-DC valuations (12x
EV/EBITDA). We also incorporated a 2% ESG discount based on YTLP’s ESG
score of 2.9 vis-à-vis the 3.0 country median. Downside risks: Weaker-than expected plant performance and higher-than-expected operating costs.

@wendy76 any link for the document?

The top three sectors with the highest net foreign inflows
were Financial Services (RM112.2m), Utilities (RM97.3m),
and Property (RM86.6m), while the top three sectors with the
highest net foreign outflows were Consumer Products & Services
(-RM39.6m), Industrial Products & Services (-RM38.0m), and
Healthcare (-RM21.2m).

YTL Power Int. Foreign fund Net in flow of 79.7Millions

TA TP Rm 2.60 ⚒
AmInvest AffinHwang TP RM 2.70 ⚒
RHB TP Rm 2.95 ⚒
MIDF TP RM 2.99 ⚒
CIMB TP Rm 3.00 ⚒
Kenanga TP RM 3.06 ⚒
D TP RM3.28 ⚒😂
OLD HLIB TP RM 3.90 ⚒
MrFox TP > 4.00 ⚒😁
Uniholder TP 4.28 😁
CLSA TP RM 4.40 😁
SimplyyWlSt TP RM4.95😁
HLIB TP RM 5.15 😁

RM4.00 is a strong resistance.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/tuudLMci/

Foreign ownership of YTLPower is about 14% now, jump from11% in 23Dec2023

@moncmondo87 can you sent me the report, thank you so much

@dragon328 thank you again!!!

@dragon328 thank you!!!

@dragon328 what will be the PBA earning look like after tariff increase?

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2024/01/17/domestic-water-tariffs-in-penang-to-double/
@dragon328 @KingKKK your projection based on this figure?

@3.93 MCap 32B, L4QPE is 11.7x and FPE of 10.00

IDSS Vol 647,500
IDSS Val 2.54M

RSS Vol 203,100
RSS Val 793,874

TA TP Rm 2.60 ⚒
AmInvest AffinHwang TP RM 2.70 ⚒
RHB TP Rm 2.95 ⚒
MIDF TP RM 2.99 ⚒
CIMB TP Rm 3.00 ⚒
Kenanga TP RM 3.06 ⚒
D TP RM3.28 ⚒😂
OLD HLIB TP RM 3.90 ⚒😁
MrFox TP > 4.00 😁
Uniholder TP 4.28 😁
SimplyyWlSt TP RM4.95😁
HLIB TP RM 5.15 😁

Who can imagine it nearly hit 4.00 so soon.

@dragon328 finally it come!!! Congratulations to your predictions!!!

@xiaochen superb!!!

today RSS value till now is ZERO.

IDSS Vol 394,500
IDSS Val 1.48M

RSS till now is = ZERO. Good sign

@dragon328 Foreign fund currently hold more than 11% of YTL Power shares, 11% is as of 23-Dec-2023. later i check until last week

YTL Power Int. inflow of RM160.20

The top three sectors with the highest net foreign inflows were
Utilities (RM135.1m), Construction (RM114.6m), and Property
(RM51.2m), while the top three sectors with the highest
net foreign outflows were Financial Services (-RM129.2m),
Consumer Products & Services (-RM64.8m), and Industrial
Products & Services (-RM61.8m).

these few days really too much noise from the limit down frenzies, hold steadfast. YTLPower coming quarters profit will not change because of these noise. Have Faith. Have faith in year of Dragon and dragon328.

RSS trade Vol 374900 value at 1.37 Millions. AVG = 3.6543

Today RSS vol traded is ZERO. Data from Thomson Reuters. Hopefully tomorrow hit higher ATH.

@idkdontaskmelol you are right. That mean max short is 4.079 Millions. Thanks. 0.1% is good small compare to daily volume.

@NatsukoMishima in year 2030?

@Plantermen for the last 2 weeks, the bull seem to out run the shorties. 😂

@dragon328 Yes, there will be more volatility as there are more players in the stock, NSP just a indicator of the sentiments of the big players, time correctly you may make a quick trade. USEP still have maybe low impact on YTLPower but higher impact on KEPPEL or SEMBCorp. At least we see normalization is happening fast.

TA TP Rm 2.60 ⚒
AmInvest AffinHwang TP RM 2.70 ⚒
RHB TP Rm 2.95 ⚒
MIDF TP RM 2.99 ⚒
CIMB TP Rm 3.00 ⚒
Kenanga TP RM 3.06 ⚒
D TP RM3.28 ⚒😂
HLIB TP RM 3.90 ⚒😁
MrFox TP > 4.00 😁
Uniholder TP 4.28 😁

ATH 3.91.